Bookies Odds Thread

Shanotheslayer · 16-08-2017 6:30pm #1

Hi All,

GAMEWEEK 2

I think we had a thread similar to this last year were the bookies odds where posted for the chances of clean sheet / goal etc.

https://oddsonfpl.com/2017/08/16/clean-sheet-probabilities-gameweek-2/

The above link is a sum of the probability of each team to keep a clean sheet. Thus helping you choose your defenders in those close 50-50 picks.

United lead the way with a 56.29% chance to keep a clean sheet, while Everton sit at the bottom with an 11.25% chance.

Will be using this thread for goalscorer probabilities also as it's just easier to have a running thread for odds.

All feedback appreciated or if you think we could add more information let me know.

Scorpion Sting · 16-08-2017 6:32pm

Nice one Shano. Assist odds would be handy to know as well I think but do they give odds on a lot of players or only a select few like KDB, Ozil etc?

Shanotheslayer · 16-08-2017 6:44pm

Scorpion Sting wrote: »

Nice one Shano. Assist odds would be handy to know as well I think but do they give odds on a lot of players or only a select few like KDB, Ozil etc?

We've been looking into that and I know for a fact for big games bookies give odds for all players. I've seen it myself personally. However we're currently unsure if they do it for all premier league games. I suppose even if they did just do the big players it would at least help somewhat. I'll hopefully have more information on that tomorrow or later tonight. Goalscorer odds should be up tomorrow or Friday at the latest

Scorpion Sting · 16-08-2017 11:00pm

Ok cool cheers Shano.

danganabu · 18-08-2017 11:31am

I have 5 of the front 6 in the predicted TOTW so hope that you are right on the money :-)

Shanotheslayer · 18-08-2017 7:17pm

Hi All,

Sorry for the delay.

Anytime goalscorer stats per game with also a small write-up.

https://oddsonfpl.com/2017/08/17/fantasy-premier-league-gameweek-2-odds-on-fpl/

Some may be surprised Lukaku isn't the most likely to score!

18-08-2017 7:20pm

Blame me for compiling odds before all players were there and sleeping too much.

FHFC · 18-08-2017 11:36pm

Only getting a look at these articles now Shayno. Good info...I'm not sure if you've seen this blog which is very similar? I followed this a lot last season.

https://www.fantasybet.com/blog/bookies-advantage-gameweek-2-2/

Shanotheslayer · 19-08-2017 12:02am

FHFC wrote: »

Only getting a look at these articles now Shayno. Good info...I'm not sure if you've seen this blog which is very similar? I followed this a lot last season.

https://www.fantasybet.com/blog/bookies-advantage-gameweek-2-2/

Hey mate, I'll be honest I didn't hear of it until literally about two hours ago I was scrolling through reddit and I saw it, myself and Paddy spoke about it. I went through the %'s and it's amusing to see the difference the %'s. They are actually a bookie so those odds are just their own and doesn't include any other bookies.

In relation to the clean sheets it's pretty close give or take a % or two.

For goalscorers they don't add any defenders which I find strange considering many people look for an attacking defender. With myself and Paddy gathering data to compile assist chances also, I feel we will provide more of an edge, albeit it may take a bit a time.

We'll be able to compile a clean sheets/assists/goalscorers meaning that if we can work out odds on defenders likely to assist it will be a massive gain.

FHFC · 19-08-2017 12:09am

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

Hey mate, I'll be honest I didn't hear of it until literally about two hours ago I was scrolling through reddit and I saw it, myself and Paddy spoke about it. I went through the %'s and it's amusing to see the difference the %'s. They are actually a bookie so those odds are just their own and doesn't include any other bookies.

In relation to the clean sheets it's pretty close give or take a % or two.

For goalscorers they don't add any defenders which I find strange considering many people look for an attacking defender. With myself and Paddy gathering data to compile assist chances also, I feel we will provide more of an edge, albeit it may take a bit a time.

We'll be able to compile a clean sheets/assists/goalscorers meaning that if we can work out odds on defenders likely to assist it will be a massive gain.

Yeah I think the extra innovations you have and are planning are good.

Are you developing your own algorithm for assist chances?

Shanotheslayer · 19-08-2017 12:14am

FHFC wrote: »

Yeah I think the extra innovations you have and are planning are good.

Are you developing your own algorithm for assist chances?

We know bookies give odds on certain games, so that gives us an idea of players chances of getting assists. If we can find an average over a number of X games played we'd work from there.

We're generally quite good at guessing odds before they are up on site. We also will have to take into consideration that bookies assists odds are far stricter than Fantasy Football assists for example - winning a penalty is an assist in FF but not in the bookies. So that will be a huge factor.

Edit: While also taking into account FFscout pick an XI based on what they believe will be max points and don't stick to the rules of how many mid's/striker's I'm doing my own personal piece trying to pick a team weekly but sticking to the rules and posting prices etc

FHFC · 19-08-2017 12:25am

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

We know bookies give odds on certain games, so that gives us an idea of players chances of getting assists. If we can find an average over a number of X games played we'd work from there.

We're generally quite good at guessing odds before they are up on site. We also will have to take into consideration that bookies assists odds are far stricter than Fantasy Football assists for example - winning a penalty is an assist in FF but not in the bookies. So that will be a huge factor.

Edit: While also taking into account FFscout pick an XI based on what they believe will be max points and don't stick to the rules of how many mid's/striker's I'm doing my own personal piece trying to pick a team weekly but sticking to the rules and posting prices etc

A weekly 'mock Wildcard' team is good. Gives food for thought for transfers and team selection.

Shanotheslayer · 19-08-2017 12:32am

FHFC wrote: »

A weekly 'mock Wildcard' team is good. Gives food for thought for transfers and team selection.

Not sure if you saw but mine was:

Begovic
Yoshida, Walker, Ward, Simpson
Salah, Ramsey, Alli
Jesus, Firmino, Lukaku

Bench: Elliot, Hegazi, Carroll, Doucoure

https://oddsonfpl.com/2017/08/17/beat-the-odds-gameweek-2/ ( If you want to read the reasoning)

Edit - It's also food for thought that their bookies team got 68 points GW1 while ours got 77, so it will be interesting to see going forward. They do a wildcard team based on odds while ours is consistent from GW1 and will include transfers.

Shanotheslayer · 23-08-2017 11:21am

Hi All,

Bookies odds on clean sheets for GW3 -

https://oddsonfpl.com/2017/08/23/clean-sheet-probabilities-gameweek-3/

Spurs lead the way with 59.14% whilst Bournemouth are at the bottom 10.42% chance.

alchemist33 · 23-08-2017 12:17pm

Great to have the info all in the one place. If someone could find the long-missing FPL Resources thread, Shano and Paddy's site should be on it.

24-08-2017 8:33pm

Hi guys, here is our post on this week's most likely scorers. I've been working on calculating the expected points, but its a work in progress and may confused people. I hope I've explained it well enough in the intro. Essentially its just a way to compare the expected points difference between one player and another.

https://oddsonfpl.com/2017/08/24/goalscorer-probabilities-gameweek-3/

kilburn · 24-08-2017 8:37pm

Deleted User wrote:

Hi guys, here is our post on this week's most likely scorers. I've been working on calculating the expected points, but its a work in progress and may confused people. I hope I've explained it well enough in the intro. Essentially its just a way to compare the expected points difference between one player and another.

Great job very interesting read

24-08-2017 9:16pm

Thanks mate.

FHFC · 24-08-2017 10:04pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Hi guys, here is our post on this week's most likely scorers. I've been working on calculating the expected points, but its a work in progress and may confused people. I hope I've explained it well enough in the intro. Essentially its just a way to compare the expected points difference between one player and another.

https://oddsonfpl.com/2017/08/24/goalscorer-probabilities-gameweek-3/

I like that own the top 4 in your likely pts from goals table.

24-08-2017 10:17pm

Jaysis, I'd like to see the rest of your team haha

FHFC · 24-08-2017 10:56pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Jaysis, I'd like to see the rest of your team haha

Planning on getting Kane in for a hit by downgrading KdB to Richarilison.

Elliott
Jones, Kompany, Cedric Hegazi (Long)
Alli, Richarilison, Tadic (Fraser, Carroll)
Aguero, Lukaku, Kane

25-08-2017 2:50pm

Not as bad as I'd expected.

Here is our team this week.

https://oddsonfpl.com/2017/08/25/gameweek-3-odds-on-fpl-team/

scotchy · 25-08-2017 2:56pm

Alonso Captain......:cool:

:cool:

.

iroced · 27-08-2017 7:39pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Here is our team this week.

https://oddsonfpl.com/2017/08/25/gameweek-3-odds-on-fpl-team/

scotchy wrote: »

Alonso Captain......:cool::cool:

.

By the way, great call for captaincy :cool:! I may try your next "wild" choice

.

Looks like the August curse superstition beat the regression to the mean rationale

.

Shanotheslayer · 06-09-2017 7:52pm

Hi all,

Clean sheet odds have arrived!

https://oddsonfpl.com/2017/09/06/clean-sheet-probabilities-gameweek-4/

United top this weeks leaderboard

Shanotheslayer · 08-09-2017 1:16pm

Hi All,

The expected points article is up!

For those who saw my post in the Captaincy thread - Sanchez way ahead

https://oddsonfpl.com/2017/09/08/gameweek-4-expected-player-points-fpl/

Porthallian · 08-09-2017 1:40pm

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

Hi All,

The expected points article is up!

For those who saw my post in the Captaincy thread - Sanchez way ahead

https://oddsonfpl.com/2017/09/08/gameweek-4-expected-player-points-fpl/

Not trying to nit-pick here but you chose Mane and Firmino out as good options but then Firmino's expected sum is quite low at 1.71?
Maybe I'm reading into those stats wrong.

Shanotheslayer · 08-09-2017 1:52pm

Porthallian wrote: »

Not trying to nit-pick here but you chose Mane and Firmino out as good options but then Firmino's expected sum is quite low at 1.71?
Maybe I'm reading into those stats wrong.

Hi,

The stats are correct the players we mention are just big name players. So we mentioned Firmino and Mane. Could have been Mane/Salah but didn't want to name the two midfielders.

For example(On my phone so can't see stats off hand) Hazard could have higher returns than Willian, but Hazard hasn't played so we might not mention him as much.

The writing is just small write ups on certain players. The stats are to give people information on who the bookies think is most likely.

Porthallian · 08-09-2017 3:29pm

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

Hi,

The stats are correct the players we mention are just big name players. So we mentioned Firmino and Mane. Could have been Mane/Salah but didn't want to name the two midfielders.

For example(On my phone so can't see stats off hand) Hazard could have higher returns than Willian, but Hazard hasn't played so we might not mention him as much.

The writing is just small write ups on certain players. The stats are to give people information on who the bookies think is most likely.

That's fair enough. I still think that Firmino would be more likely to score higher than Milner for example who has placed a long way above him on that list. Particularly since Milner rarely starts and Firmino is on pens.

I'll be really surprised if Liverpool keep a clean sheet tbh.

Dearg81 · 08-09-2017 3:38pm

Porthallian wrote:

That's fair enough. I still think that Firmino would be more likely to score higher than Milner for example who has placed a long way above him on that list. Particularly since Milner rarely starts and Firmino is on pens.

Bookies always base their odds on players starting so Milners lack of game time isn't taken into account.

08-09-2017 7:48pm

Hi lads, here is this week's bookie's team.
https://oddsonfpl.com/2017/09/08/odds-on-fpl-gameweek-4-preview/

Bookies Odds Thread

Comments