LongshotValue 40 bets 1 year

jimjamcos · 26-01-2018 10:41pm

aidankkk wrote:

Hopefully we can draw a line under my huge gaff 3:35 Cheltenham I keep looking at this race coming to the same horse. Ex Patriot really has the look of a strong stayer, has some fairly eye-popping form already this year over shorter and will act on the ground. I think he will probably improve for the step up in trip. Even forgetting all that on actual ratings now he has very little to find with most of these. We also have to throw on a very good run last year in the Triumph Hurdle. 33/1 looks a fair few points too big. I normally wouldnâ€™t go EW in this type of race but he is very consistent and will handle course and ground. Heâ€™s a 20/1 shot at most here.

Couldn't agree more. As you've said, has decent form both this year and last, we know he handles track and he could easily be open to improvement for trip.

He's priced on the fact he comes from an unfashionable Irish stable but given the race is full of unknowns he's more than worth a bet.

He was less than 3l behind Killultagh Vic giving 4lbs lto but if it was the Mullins horse lining up tomorrow he'd be sub 8/1 so 33s Ex Patriot screams value.

Whiplash85 · 26-01-2018 11:19pm

As Usual threads on here get derailed by grown up children. You're doing a great job Aidan. Numbers speak for themselves. Naysayers pi$$ off.

ballyargus · 26-01-2018 11:29pm

Whiplash85 wrote: »

As Usual threads on here get derailed by grown up children. You're doing a great job Aidan. Numbers speak for themselves. Naysayers pi$$ off.

Agreed. This is good information. Anyone splitting hairs over going a nosejob on a 33/1 rank outsider rather than EW needs to revise their betting strategy

BumperD · 27-01-2018 12:21am

aidankkk wrote: »

Hopefully we can draw a line under my huge gaff :rolleyes:

3:35 Cheltenham

I keep looking at this race coming to the same horse. Ex Patriot really has the look of a strong stayer, has some fairly eye-popping form already this year over shorter and will act on the ground. I think he will probably improve for the step up in trip. Even forgetting all that on actual ratings now he has very little to find with most of these. We also have to throw on a very good run last year in the Triumph Hurdle. 33/1 looks a fair few points too big. I normally wouldn’t go EW in this type of race but he is very consistent and will handle course and ground. He’s a 20/1 shot at most here.

2 Points EW 33/1 ¼ place 365 1/5th betfair/sun/paddy/boyles

I’m following you on this price looks huge

Peckham · 27-01-2018 11:33am

Thanks. Stumbled across this thread and backed at 25/1. Hopefully it's one of your successful tips!

Peintre Celebre · 27-01-2018 2:45pm

Father Hernandez wrote: »

Fair play once again Aidan, as mentioned before me one of the best threads on boards.ie having followed for quite some time.

Don't need the negativity from the above poster!

Negativity? Come off it you gob****e i made a valid point there wasnt any negativity.

Good luck today aidan keep up the good work.

longshotvalue · 29-01-2018 2:50pm

Hereford 15:40
Firebird Flyer was just getting involved for us last time out in the Welsh National and ran reasonably well the time before. He shouldn’t be far away here if he is on a going day. 40/1 is very big in this race.
2 Points EW 40/1 sky/betfair/paddy/stan/vc

Cherry_Cola · 29-01-2018 4:56pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Hereford 15:40
Firebird Flyer was just getting involved for us last time out in the Welsh National and ran reasonably well the time before. He shouldn’t be far away here if he is on a going day. 40/1 is very big in this race.
2 Points EW 40/1 sky/betfair/paddy/stan/vc

Had high hopes as that horse brought me lots of luck previously

not to be today unfortunately.

longshotvalue · 31-01-2018 9:12pm

This Tread is now over after 100 bets. From just doing a quick to it looks poor enough at a 15 point profit.

Serious downturn at the start and finish.

I meant this to last a year and only have 40 bets which didn't work.

I hope to drastically reduce the number of bets from now on. If i look at the figures and bets for the last year, i really have to stick to the biggest races. Nearly all the big winners come in the best races (which is more fun obviously).

This the 12 of these treads on boards and 11 have made a profit. (just)

Ill be doing annual 2017 figures shortly and i'm not sure what way it will go.

ballyargus · 31-01-2018 9:18pm

A pity. Thanks for the ride Aidan. Has been good fun. I look forward to your next set of picks.

[Deleted User] · 31-01-2018 9:26pm

Thanks Aidan. I always enjoy your analysis and reasoning.

Ive had some memorable afternoons courtesy of your picks. Season highlights for me Wings of eagles and Splash of Ginge!!

Hopefully the new thread starts soon.....or maybe an antepost Cheltenham handicap yankee (wink wink nudge nudge)

Stheno · 31-01-2018 9:32pm

TheTorment wrote: »

Thanks Aidan. I always enjoy your analysis and reasoning.

Ive had some memorable afternoons courtesy of your picks. Season highlights for me Wings of eagles and Splash of Ginge!!

Hopefully the new thread starts soon.....or maybe an antepost Cheltenham handicap yankee (wink wink nudge nudge)

Hah splash of ginge! That was great

James Bond Junior · 31-01-2018 9:35pm

Dipped in and out of this but I am going to be far more disciplined in following amd keeping the point system strict. Still and all I have seen a nice few bob out of it. Thanks, Aidan. Havent been doing much on the horses myself in the last while so was good to keep the interest simmering at least.

stretchaq · 31-01-2018 11:39pm

Fantastic read as always Aidan

Many thanks

abarkie · 01-02-2018 1:07am

aidankkk wrote: »

This Tread is now over after 100 bets. From just doing a quick to it looks poor enough at a 15 point profit.

Serious downturn at the start and finish.

I meant this to last a year and only have 40 bets which didn't work.

I hope to drastically reduce the number of bets from now on. If i look at the figures and bets for the last year, i really have to stick to the biggest races. Nearly all the big winners come in the best races (which is more fun obviously).

This the 12 of these treads on boards and 11 have made a profit. (just)

Ill be doing annual 2017 figures shortly and i'm not sure what way it will go.

Always a great thread and I wouldn't bother posting the results as they speak for themselves

blindside88 · 01-02-2018 4:01pm

Thanks Aidan, been very enjoyable. Can’t wait for the new thread

LongshotValue 40 bets 1 year

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