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Happy anniversary and thank you so very very much for the years of forecasts.. huge hugs from Ireland.M.T. Cranium wrote: »Thursday, 30 May, 2019
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 30 May to 5 June 2019
-- Temperatures will average near normal (nights may be 1-2 deg above normal due to persistent cloud). Monday onward will be cooler than the first four days of this interval.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal for many areas.
-- Sunshine will average only about half of the normal amount.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be warm and humid with showers and isolated thunderstorms, fairly persistent in the north, only isolated in southern counties by afternoon, where highs will be near 20 C. It should reach about 18 or 19 in Dublin and 16 to 18 in parts of the west and north.
TONIGHT will continue mostly cloudy, muggy and mild with some further rain in the north, lows 10 to 13 C.
FRIDAY will be wet in most western and northern counties, starting off partly cloudy in east and south but overcast by afternoon with showers making some progress into those areas, highs 18 to 21 C.
SATURDAY will see some clearing overnight lasting into part of the morning (at least in south and east), and there should be a dry interval mid-day before more rain arrives at least in the west by late afternoon, spreading east overnight. Lows near 8 C and highs 17 to 19 C.
SUNDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with showers, cooler with moderate southwest to west winds, highs near 16 C.
OUTLOOK ... Cooler with showers first part of next week, highs 13 to 16 C, then somewhat warmer but mostly cloudy with risk of some heavier rain developing, highs 15 to 19 C.
My local weather on a travel day Wednesday started out cloudy at the coast, became mostly sunny about halfway back to home base then cloudy again by evening arriving home. Where it was clear we could see tops of rather weak thundershowers that were trying to form over higher terrain but they weren't producing much if any rain or lightning. It was very warm and muggy most of the way too, around 25 C at peak.
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We are closing in on the tenth anniversary of this forecast thread (31st of May 2009, I had this idea .... that people (cough cough) would like to make forecasts on the weather forum. It turned into this and I've enjoyed it a lot.0 -
Friday, 31 May, 2019
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 31 May to 6 June, 2019 ...
-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal with highs often in the mid-teens after today and Saturday.
-- Rainfall will average near normal and it will accumulate a little at a time through the period.
-- Sunshine will average at best two-thirds of the normal amount (six hours daily on average) and possibly worse than that in places.
FORECASTS
TODAY will start out cloudy with widespread light rain or drizzle, heavier rain in parts of Connacht. This will trend towards heavy showers moving further east across northern counties while southern counties could get some dry intervals and the odd break in the overcast. It will feel rather muggy in the south with highs near 19 C, cooler in the north with highs about 15 C. 10-20 mm rainfalls possible in the north.
TONIGHT will have a clearing trend and lows will be about 7 C.
SATURDAY will start out sunny in the east and south with increasing cloud. It will be largely overcast in the north and west, dry for a while then some rain will arrive there by late afternoon. Highs near 17 C.
SUNDAY will feature some heavy early morning rainfalls followed by partly cloudy to overcast skies and further showers, about 10 mm of rain on average. Highs near 15 C.
MONDAY and TUESDAY are looking quite cool now with occasional showers and a mixture of cloud and sunshine although cloud dominating in most places, lows around 6 C and highs only about 14 C.
OUTLOOK calls for only a slight increase in temperatures after that towards perhaps 17 C with a little rain here and there each day, although dry intervals too, as heavier rainfalls develop further east but at this point appear more likely to track through Britain than Ireland.
My local weather on Thursday was cloudy, warm and oppressive with some heavy thundershowers forming by late afternoon and we had quite a downpour for half an hour, probably 20 mm of rain (which is good news as the forests were starting to dry out ominously). These showers were fairly widespread so at least half the southern regions of the province got a good soaking from them. Meanwhile, I hadn't mentioned a lot of the details due to my travels etc, but there has been a two-week outbreak of very severe weather in the central U.S., this showed some signs of weakening on Thursday. Not only have there been many tornados but an unusual number of the stronger ones have decided to target large cities (among them, Dayton OH, Jefferson City MO, suburbs of Oklahoma City (El Reno) and Kansas City both KS and MO). It's a minor miracle that the death toll has been relatively low with all of these strong tornados hitting urban areas, often at night.
So as mentioned we are almost at the ten-year mark, I said this started on 31st May 2009 but that was in my time zone, I think the first post appeared on the morning of 1st of June 2009. In all that time, we've seen some dramatic weather events, just to name a few, the late 2010 snow and severe cold, the 2013 and 2014 hot summers and a few interesting storms, Storm Darwin in Feb 2014 and all the other storms that same winter, Hurricane Ophelia in Oct 2017, and the remarkable snowfalls of late Feb into first of March 2018. This is when I actually have to do some serious work on these forecasts, otherwise it's mainly a function of my residing in a time zone where 0400h to 0600h (forecast decision time) is not middle of the night for me, but mid-evening so that's why (more than any other reason) I've been doing these forecasts and other equally capable (or more so) weather forum members have been just filling in graciously when I do get a few weeks away. But as I've said many times, the more significant forecasts tend to draw on the full experience of the forum as expressed in the discussion threads, while these less dramatic periods, I tend to hug the models (not a bad thing to do most of the time). I can't say looking forward to the next ten years as I have another milestone looming, the dreaded 70th, so we'll see how this plays out (ya never know).0 -
Saturday, 1st of June, 2019
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 1 to 7 June
-- Temperatures will average about 2 deg below normal with highs often in the mid-teens.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal with Monday-Tuesday now looking rather wet. A few western districts could see a bit less than the normal amounts with the heavier rain looking likely to target north and east more.
-- Sunshine will average half of its normal value at best, or about 3 hours a day on average. That could be optimistic in some parts of the north too.
FORECASTS
TODAY ... A few brighter intervals between outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, then heavier rain likely by evening. Highs 15 to 17 C.
TONIGHT ... Rain heavy at times, 10 to 20 mm likely. Lows near 10 C.
SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy, a few showers and slight risk of an isolated thundershower. Some risk of strong winds developing later in the day near west coast. Highs 14 to 16 C.
MONDAY ... Variable cloud, outbreaks of rain becoming heavy near south coast mid-day, spreading up east coast by evening. Cool and breezy, lows near 9 C and highs near 14 C.
TUESDAY ... Rain heavy at times in east, total amounts near 30 mm (including Monday), with partial clearing in some western counties later afternoon, cool. Lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C.
WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will continue a cool and unsettled theme with highs only around 15 C, and some chance of isolated heavy showers or thunderstorms although perhaps equal chances of any given place having a dry day too.
The further outlook is not very encouraging with rain likely around weekend of 8th-9th followed by more cool unsettled weather.
Hopefully as our summer forecast predicted, the trend will improve later in the summer. Of course, some consider summer to be 21st of June to 20th of September or thereabouts, and they seem to have a point.
My local weather was sunny and rather warm with towering cumulus buildups over nearby hills, but no sign of actual showers or thunder. Highs around 24 C.
And so we enter into the second decade of this experiment ... I've learned a lot about the weather and the people of Ireland, in the latter case mostly all good. One comes in with preconceived notions about the Irish weather that get some fine tuning along the way, I have found it fascinating and because of the many pictures I see during my weather work, we are hoping to get a chance to visit sooner or later.0 -
"Hopefully as our summer forecast predicted, the trend will improve later in the summer. Of course, some consider summer to be 21st of June to 20th of September or thereabouts, and they seem to have a point."
Can someone post a link to this forecast, akesys look ouf for it every year, but somehow missed it, thanks0 -
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M.T. Cranium I always check in with your forecasts here or on Facebook, they're more reliable and user friendly than any other. So thank you and here's to another 10 years
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"Hopefully as our summer forecast predicted, the trend will improve later in the summer. Of course, some consider summer to be 21st of June to 20th of September or thereabouts, and they seem to have a point."
Can someone post a link to this forecast, akesys look ouf for it every year, but somehow missed it, thanks
It was posted with the 22nd of May forecast ... but this is it so you won't need to scroll back there ...
SUMMER OUTLOOK -- Here's a brief overview of how I think the summer of 2019 might turn out. The key word is average -- most indications are that the current rather featureless and bland weather pattern will continue to be the background theme, so June and possibly July temperatures will remain quite close to average and so will rainfall, although there may be one or two places seeing quite an isolated heavy downpour at some point in that kind of scenario. Then I believe that a warmer trend will set in for August and early September which may be warmer than average and reasonably dry with the possibility of isolated heavy thunderstorm rainfalls. At this point I don't think it will be a lot different from the long-term averages but that may make for a reasonably pleasant summer.0 -
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Mod Note: I'm sure the posts appreciating MT's work are well meant but we would remind that this is a no chat thread otherwise it will get cluttered and off topic very quickly.
Thank You.0 -
Sunday, 2 June, 2019
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 2 to 8 June 2019 ...
-- Temperatures will average 2 deg below normal.
-- Rainfall will amount to twice or even three times normal in the south and east, closer to normal in north and west.
-- Sunshine will average half of the normal amount, or about three hours a day on average.
-- It will be quite windy for this time of year.
FORECASTS
TODAY ... Breezy and rather cool with a few passing showers, but also some brief breaks in the overcast. There will be an interval of strong winds in Connacht and west Ulster this afternoon and early evening, southwest 60-100 km/hr, while in other parts of the country, peak gusts of about 80 km/hr. Highs 14 to 17 C.
TONIGHT ... Outbreaks of light rain, 5 to 10 mm possible in north and west, moderate southwest winds 40 to 70 km/hr, lows near 10 C.
MONDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, moderate southwest winds becoming more variable by afternoon. Highs 14 to 17 C.
TUESDAY ... Rain from early morning spreading through Munster and Leinster, with some heavy amounts especially over higher terrain in southeast. Potential for 40 to 70 mm totals there, otherwise 20 to 50 mm. Not quite as wet in Connacht and Ulster but persistent light rain. Cool with northeast winds increasing to 50 to 70 km/hr. Lows near 10 C and highs 12 to 15 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, cool, showers, highs near 14 C.
THURSDAY ... Heavy showers, risk of a thunderstorm, highs near 15 C.
OUTLOOK ... Friday and Saturday will be unsettled but another spell of heavy rain could develop by Sunday 9th. The weather appears likely to remain unsettled into the following week but there could be brief spells of much warmer weather with that.
My local weather was sunny and very warm with a high near 28 C.0 -
Monday, 3 June, 2019
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 3 to 9 June 2019 ...
-- Temperatures will average 2 deg below normal.
-- Rainfall will amount to 150% to 250% of normal amounts in parts of Munster and Leinster, closer to normal amounts in Connacht and Ulster. A good deal of that will fall in the next two days but further amounts will be recorded most places on following days.
-- Sunshine will average half of the normal amount, or about three hours a day on average.
-- It will be rather windy for this time of year.
FORECASTS
TODAY ... Sunny breaks this morning, with some isolated showers, then becoming mostly cloudy, more widespread showers likely before evening when rain will move into the south. Highs 14 to 17 C. Breezy to mid-day then most places having a calmer afternoon.
TONIGHT ... Heavy rainfall likely in Munster and Leinster, and a few adjacent portions of Connacht and Ulster, 15-25 mm by morning. Winds increasing to NE 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows 7 to 9 C.
TUESDAY ... Rain from early morning spreading through Munster and Leinster, with some heavy amounts especially over higher terrain in southeast. Potential for 35 to 65 mm totals there, otherwise 20 to 50 mm (all of this including amounts predicted overnight above). Not quite as wet in Connacht and Ulster but persistent light rain. Cool with northeast winds 50 to 70 km/hr backing to northerly later. Highs only 12 to 15 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, cool, showers, lows near 5 C and highs near 14 C.
THURSDAY ... Isolated heavy showers, risk of a thunderstorm, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.
FRIDAY to SUNDAY ... Unsettled, highs 15 to 17 C, frequent light rain or showers. Heavier rain appears likely to spread north into Britain at some point during this period and some of it could circulate around low pressure to reach northern counties of Ulster then further south along the west coast eventually, but this scenario could be modified towards a more widespread heavy rainfall if model guidance changes very much over the next few days. As the potential exists for 50-100 mm rainfalls in Britain, we need to monitor the potential in Ireland in case that rainfall shifts over time.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Somewhat warmer for a time but continuing quite unsettled with frequent rain likely. Unfortunately it may be difficult for anyone counting on a few days of dry weather but we will keep watching to see if a break develops.
My local weather on Sunday was sunny and hot, close to 30 C here and 33 C at a nearby lower elevation airport which was the warmest place in the country at that point.0 -
Tuesday, 4 June, 2019
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 4 to 10 June 2019 ...
-- Temperatures will average 2 deg below normal.
-- Rainfall will amount to 150% to 250% of normal amounts in parts of Munster and Leinster, closer to normal amounts in Connacht and Ulster.
-- Sunshine will average half of the normal amount, or about three hours a day on average.
FORECASTS
TODAY ... Rain will continue to spread north through the midlands and Leinster reaching east Ulster later this morning. Further amounts of 15 to 30 mm are possible. Further west the rain will be more showery but could develop into locally heavy showers or thunderstorms in a few spots. Cool with highs only 12 to 15 C. Winds moderate northeast backing to northerly 40 to 60 km/hr at times.
TONIGHT ... Some clearing in central counties, as rain more confined to north coast, but renewed outbreaks later near south coast also. Lows about 5 C central, closer to 9 C where rain continues.
WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, cool, showers, lows near 5 C and highs near 14 C.
THURSDAY ... Isolated heavy showers, risk of a thunderstorm, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.
FRIDAY and SATURDAY will continue unsettled with a lot of cloud, brief sunny intervals, and showers, with highs around 15 C.
SUNDAY is looking rather wet again, with a system similar to today's rainfall event moving through eastern and central counties, and quite cool temperatures 12 to 14 C.
NEXT WEEK is starting to look somewhat improved now with high pressure building up by mid-week, possibly a few dry days coming along after the 10th. Rather far off to give very precise details but temperatures may also recover to more normal readings in the high teens to near 20 C.
My local weather on Monday was sunny and still rather warm although a bit cooler than the heat on the weekend with a high around 24 C.0 -
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Wednesday, 5 June, 2019
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 5 to 11 June, 2019
-- Temperatures will continue cool, around 2 or even 3 degrees below normal for time of year.
-- Rainfall will ease slightly (now that a lot of the previously predicted amounts have fallen) to near or a little above normal for the week.
-- Sunshine will continue to run below normal especially in the north, some parts of the south may come closer to average amounts.
FORECASTS
TODAY ... Rain will continue in the north but will slowly decrease in intensity and fragment to showers, with a gradual drift west and then back to the south in the remnants of the rainfall; some places will see 10 to 20 mm further rainfalls. The south may start out partly cloudy with some decent sunny intervals, then some showers will develop there also, one or two could turn heavy and thundery later. Highs will reach about 16 C in the south but will be held to about 12 C in the north.
TONIGHT ... Rain or showers in a few parts of the west, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy, lows near 6 C.
THURSDAY ... A mixture of cloud and sunshine to start, then development of heavy showers in central counties, spreading to Leinster during the later afternoon, with risk of some isolated heavy thunderstorms. Highs near 15 C.
FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals, more frequent in west, isolated showers, lows near 6 C and highs near 16 C.
FRIDAY NIGHT some heavy rain moving north across Wales and western England may edge close to the east coast and eventually back into parts of north Leinster and east Ulster. Lows near 9 C. Staying dry further west.
SATURDAY and SUNDAY will be somewhat improved with partly cloudy skies, moderate westerly winds and after any rain comes and goes on Saturday morning in the north and east, just a few scattered showers likely. Highs near 17 C.
MONDAY will start out dry then see outbreaks of light rain and highs near 16 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for rather cool temperatures to continue for much of the week of 10 to 14 June in a north to northeast wind flow, then somewhat warmer around mid-month, but always with some risk of rainfall developing.
Some who are looking for dry weather over three or four days may have to settle for imperfect conditions around Friday to Monday or take a chance on waiting quite a long while for a better opportunity.
My local weather on Tuesday continued sunny but once again it was cooler than the previous day, this time only around 20 C.0 -
Thursday, 6 June, 2019
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 6 to 12 June, 2019
-- Temperatures will continue cool, around 1.5 to 2.5 degrees below normal for time of year.
-- Rainfall will ease slightly (now that a lot of the previously predicted amounts have fallen) to near or a little above normal for the week.
-- Sunshine will continue to run below normal especially in the north, some parts of the south may come closer to average amounts. There will be an improving trend by mid-week.
FORECASTS
TODAY ... A mixture of cloud and sunshine to start, except in Connacht and parts of Donegal where the last of the persistent rain will continue this morning (about 5 mm further rain can be expected there). By mid-day watch for the development of heavy showers in central counties, spreading to Leinster during the later afternoon, with risk of some isolated heavy thunderstorms. Highs near 15 C.
TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals, cool, lows 4 to 7 C.
FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals, more frequent in west, isolated showers, and highs near 16 C.
FRIDAY NIGHT some heavy rain moving north across Wales and western England will edge into coastal areas near the east coast and eventually may bring 5 to 15 mm rain overnight to parts of north and central Leinster and east Ulster. Lows near 9 C. Staying dry further west with moderate northwest winds at times.
SATURDAY and SUNDAY will be somewhat improved with partly cloudy skies, moderate westerly winds and after any rain comes and goes on Saturday morning in the north and east, just a few scattered showers likely. Highs near 17 C.
MONDAY will start out dry then see outbreaks of light rain and highs near 16 C.
The rest of next week may continue with the same partly cloudy, somewhat unsettled weather although there are some models showing a greater improvement now, so while confidence in that may be low at this point, it is something to monitor especially if you're looking for a few dry days. Perhaps there will be some better certainty on this outcome by Friday morning's forecast.
My local weather managed to get cooler again for the fourth consecutive day with mostly cloudy skies, highs near 19 C and some rain by evening.0 -
Friday, 7 June, 2019
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 7 to 13 June, 2019
-- Temperatures will average about 1 degree below normal.
-- Rainfall will average near normal but a little above in the east, somewhat below in the west.
-- Sunshine will begin to recover to more normal values.
FORECASTS
TODAY ... Sunny intervals in many areas this morning, increasing cloud by afternoon, some bands of light rain developing north-south as outer bands of a strong disturbance moving north into Britain where heavy rain is expected. For these lighter bands of rain in Ireland, 1 to 3 mm amounts are possible (most likely location just inland from east coast). Highs 15 to 17 C.
TONIGHT ... Rain becoming steady and sometimes rather heavy near east coast, and some distance inland north of Dublin, amounts of about 10 mm likely. Partly cloudy to overcast further west but dry in some places. Lows 7 to 9 C.
SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, isolated thunderstorms. Moderate north to northwest winds. Highs near 15 C.
SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers, moderate westerly winds, lows near 8 C and highs near 15 C.
MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers, isolated thunderstorms, lows near 7 C and highs near 16 C.
OUTLOOK ... Tuesday and Wednesday are looking more settled with only a few isolated and brief showers, and partly cloudy skies with some longer sunny intervals developing. Highs near 18 C. Beyond that, there is some increase in the chance of showers as winds return to a northeasterly direction, but even so some places could have long dry intervals and temperatures should remain seasonable at about 17 or 18 degrees. Nights will be rather cool next week with some clear skies and lows 4 to 7 C.
My local weather was mostly cloudy on Thursday with light showers and highs near 17 C. A band of heavier rain was just to our north all day and will be drifting down our way later today.0 -
Saturday, 8 June, 2019
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 8 to 14 June, 2019 ...
-- Temperatures will average 1.5 to 2.5 deg below normal.
-- Rainfall will average near normal values but will be fairly persistent at times giving the appearance of wetter than average conditions.
-- Sunshine will average about two thirds of normal values, more like 4 hours a day than the average of six.
FORECASTS
TODAY will start out rather cloudy with a few breaks mostly in west-central counties. Light rain or drizzle will come and go near the east coast but will only be persistent in east Ulster for a time. Later in the afternoon some heavier showers may develop in moderate westerly winds. It will continue rather cool with highs 14 to 16 C.
TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy with a few remnant showers and lows near 7 C. Mist and fog patches will be fairly widespread by morning.
SUNDAY will be cloudy with a few breaks, and moderate west backing to southwest breezes, eventually some rather heavy showers are likely with a few isolated thundershowers in west Munster. Highs about 15 C.
MONDAY will see a mixture of cloud and sunshine with showers somewhat more isolated, longer dry intervals possible. Lows near 7 C and highs near 17 C.
TUESDAY to THURSDAY will likely be rather cloudy with some outbreaks of light rain more likely in Ulster and parts of north Leinster, midlands and east Connacht. Winds will set up from the northeast and will sometimes be rather gusty near the east coast. Highs will range from about 14 C in the east to 17 C in the west, and overnight lows will be around 8 C.
There are some signs of a slow warming trend beyond that, but we'll get more excited about that if it continues to show on more reliable time frames in a few days' time.
My local weather was mostly cloudy with the odd glimpse of blue sky, and occasional showers, with distant rumbles of thunder too. And it was quite chilly here also with highs barely making it to 14 C locally. We are expecting a slow improving trend starting this weekend. (If you are watching the Canadian Open golf with several Irish players in contention, that's near Toronto at Hamilton ON a long way east from here, and their weather is expected to remain mostly sunny on the weekend).0 -
Sunday, 9 June, 2019
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 9 to 15 June, 2019 ...
-- Temperatures will average 1.5 to 2.5 deg below normal.
-- Rainfall will average near normal values but will be fairly persistent at times giving the appearance of wetter than average conditions.
-- Sunshine will average about two thirds of normal values, more like 4 hours a day than the average of six.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be partly cloudy with more widespread breaks in the overcast this morning, and moderate west backing to southwest breezes; eventually some rather heavy showers are likely with a few isolated thundershowers possible in west Munster. Highs about 15 C. Rainfalls generally 2 to 5 mm but locally 5 to 15 mm inland west Munster to south Leinster by late afternoon.
TONIGHT will bring gradual clearing skies but chilly with lows 2 to 6 C.
MONDAY will see a mixture of cloud and sunshine with showers spreading gradually inland from west coast, some heavier isolated showers or thunderstorms, but also some longer dry intervals possible in parts of central to northern counties. Highs near 17 C.
TUESDAY to THURSDAY will likely be rather cloudy with some outbreaks of light rain more likely in Ulster and parts of north Leinster, midlands and east Connacht. Winds will set up from the northeast and will sometimes be rather gusty near the east coast. Highs will range from about 14 C in the east to 17 C in the west, and overnight lows will be around 8 C.
FRIDAY to SUNDAY will continue unsettled but with a more westerly flow and showers then more likely to be persistent or heavy in western counties to midlands. Highs about 15 or 16 C.
The longer term trends are not overly encouraging on today's guidance which suggests that the cool and showery pattern will continue well into June.
My local weather on Saturday was overcast, with persistent light rain and a few brief intervals of soft hail mixed in, and very cool (my elevation here is over 1,000 metres so when it's cool and unsettled, we run several degrees colder than surrounding valleys which were reporting 17-19 C, more like 10-12 C here). Skies are expected to clear gradually on Sunday leading to a warmer spell.0 -
Monday, 10 June, 2019
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 10 to 16 June, 2019 ...
-- Temperatures will average about 1 to 2 deg below normal.
-- Rainfall will average near normal (in contrast to Britain where 2 to 4 times normal amounts are expected)
-- Sunshine will average a little below average but will tend to be quite variable from place to place.
FORECASTS
TODAY will start out with a few sunny intervals and isolated showers. Some heavier and more persistent showers and an isolated thunderstorm will develop in Leinster most likely some distance inland this afternoon bringing localized rainfalls of 10 to 15 mm. Many other parts of the country could remain relatively dry (1 to 3 mm). Highs will range from 14 to 17 C depending on how much sunshine breaks through.
TONIGHT will see some clearing again with rather cool overnight lows 3 to 7 C.
TUESDAY will continue relatively settled in many parts of Ireland while heavy rain moves into Britain from the east. Some outer fringes of this rainfall may sweep across the southeast by late afternoon or evening, but other places will remain dry, in a strengthening northeast wind. Highs near 14 C east to 18 C west. If rain does hit the southeast, it could amount to 10-15 mm in Wexford and 5-10 mm further north and west, and this could persist overnight.
WEDNESDAY will see isolated showers and a mixture of cloud and sunshine, lows near 7 C and highs near 16 C.
THURSDAY will feature some sunny intervals, very isolated showers, lows near 5 C and highs near 17 C.
Another heavy rainfall event will move into Britain around Thursday, and this one may not track as far south as it heads west, meaning that it could overspread most of Ireland by Friday. The forecast scenario for Friday and the weekend is quite uncertain but there is a risk of some intervals of moderate if not heavy rainfall in the 20-30 mm range. Temperatures would be held down to around 15 C if this rain reaches its full potential.
Beyond that, the current slack or blocking pattern will break down to a more mobile westerly flow from the Atlantic but that will have the effect of returning all this cloud and moisture once it gets out to the west of Ireland, in several more waves of unsettled weather. The limited drying opportunities this week may be better than anything on offer beyond Friday, for some time to come, although with the change to westerly flow will come a gradual warming trend back towards more normal June temperatures.
My local weather improved considerably on Sunday with a sunny morning and a cloudy but dry afternoon. The high was about 21 C. Not sure if this can be called weather, but we had a continual shower of cottonwood seeds from trees in the area, and this sometimes looked like a light snowfall with drifts of the cottonwood forming on the ground. This is something that often happens in early June in this region and might last a few more days. It looks as though we are going back up to near 30 C by mid-week, quite a roller coaster ride for our weather since the end of May (in case any readers are new, my local weather refers to southern British Columbia close to where eastern Washington state meets northern Idaho, but about 10 kms north of the Canadian border).0 -
Tuesday, 11 June, 2019
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for week of 11 to 17 June, 2019
-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal (nights will be generally near or a little above normal, it's the cool daytime readings producing this average).
-- Rainfall will be fairly persistent although not heavy in most cases, the net result will be near normal amounts but with some variation, the southeast is likely to be wet at first, then the southwest later.
-- Sunshine may average just a little below average with the sun getting through fairly often between weak disturbances, possibly reaching the average quota of about 5.5 to 6 hours a day.
FORECASTS
TODAY will remain dry in many areas despite a lot of cloud and some patchy drizzle in moderate northeast winds. It will be rather cool with highs 13 or 14 C in the east, to 17 C in parts of the southwest. Rain could overspread the southeast by evening.
TONIGHT will see light rain over most of Leinster, spreading gradually further southwest but fragmenting to drizzly showers. Amounts of about 5 to 10 mm are possible. Less rain expected in west and north where mostly cloudy skies will prevail. Lows 9 to 11 C.
WEDNESDAY will have further outbreaks of light rain in northeast breezes, similar temperatures to today (14 to 17 C).
THURSDAY will have a mixture of cloud and sun with more isolated showers, one or two of which could become heavy. Lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.
FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with showers heavier this time in western counties, longer dry intervals with some sunshine in east. Lows near 7 and highs near 16 C.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK calls for frequent rain and brief dry spells with limited sunshine expected, highs near 16 C.
The further outlook is encouraging, a more settled pattern may follow next week with highs closer to normal values of 18 to 20 C.
My local weather on Monday continued rather cloudy but warm, highs near 24 C. We still have the cottonwood showers and small drifts of the cottonwood gathering against kerbs and walls.0 -
Wednesday, 12 June, 2019
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 12 to 18 June, 2019
-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal. Daytime readings will be closer to 3 deg below, overnight lows close to average.
-- Rainfall may exceed the average amounts in parts of the south and east, while falling a bit short in parts of west and north, but with frequent light rain the effects may be wetter than the totals might suggest.
-- Sunshine will continue to fall somewhat below average values at best and in some parts of the south and east will be as low as 50% of the normal six hours a day.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be mostly cloudy in all areas, but rain will be more frequent and persistent in Leinster and then later in Munster as moderate rain now over the Irish Sea moves in from the northeast and gradually moves through, with 10 to 15 mm falls likely. Amounts will be progressively lower to west and north where a few breaks in the overcast are likely. Moderate north to northeast winds 40 to 60 km/hr and cool temperatures 13 to 15 C will make this feel quite a raw day where rain does develop.
TONIGHT will see a few more intervals of light rain and low cloud, fog or mist, lows near 8 C.
THURSDAY will be mostly cloudy with a few breaks and scattered outbreaks of light rain, moderate northeast winds abating somewhat, and highs near 15 C.
FRIDAY will bring a mixture of cloud and sunshine, showers that may become heavy in a few places, but winds slackening to about 20 km/hr and variable in direction, lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C.
SATURDAY will have some rain during the morning then variable cloud and isolated showers, some sunny breaks developing, lows near 8 C and highs near 15 C.
SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with showers and isolated thunderstorms, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.
The OUTLOOK for next week calls for somewhat warmer temperatures but still rather unsettled with highs closer to 18 C. The pattern does not appear likely to change substantially going into the last week of June from the longer term guidance but this is in keeping with the summer forecast of gradual improvement towards late July and August.
My local weather on Tuesday was sunny with a few cloudy intervals and quite warm with highs near 28 C. We are not done with our rather unsettling showers of cottonwood seeds which occasionally resemble heavy snow flurries despite the summery feel to the weather. Will post a picture of a drift of this material in the photography forum later today.0 -
Wednesday, 12 June, 2019
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 12 to 18 June, 2019
-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal. Daytime readings will be closer to 3 deg below, overnight lows close to average.
-- Rainfall may exceed the average amounts in parts of the south and east, while falling a bit short in parts of west and north, but with frequent light rain the effects may be wetter than the totals might suggest.
-- Sunshine will continue to fall somewhat below average values at best and in some parts of the south and east will be as low as 50% of the normal six hours a day.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be mostly cloudy in all areas, but rain will be more frequent and persistent in Leinster and then later in Munster as moderate rain now over the Irish Sea moves in from the northeast and gradually moves through, with 10 to 15 mm falls likely. Amounts will be progressively lower to west and north where a few breaks in the overcast are likely. Moderate north to northeast winds 40 to 60 km/hr and cool temperatures 13 to 15 C will make this feel quite a raw day where rain does develop.
TONIGHT will see a few more intervals of light rain and low cloud, fog or mist, lows near 8 C.
THURSDAY will be mostly cloudy with a few breaks and scattered outbreaks of light rain, moderate northeast winds abating somewhat, and highs near 15 C.
FRIDAY will bring a mixture of cloud and sunshine, showers that may become heavy in a few places, but winds slackening to about 20 km/hr and variable in direction, lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C.
SATURDAY will have some rain during the morning then variable cloud and isolated showers, some sunny breaks developing, lows near 8 C and highs near 15 C.
SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with showers and isolated thunderstorms, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.
The OUTLOOK for next week calls for somewhat warmer temperatures but still rather unsettled with highs closer to 18 C. The pattern does not appear likely to change substantially going into the last week of June from the longer term guidance but this is in keeping with the summer forecast of gradual improvement towards late July and August.
My local weather on Tuesday was sunny with a few cloudy intervals and quite warm with highs near 28 C. We are not done with our rather unsettling showers of cottonwood seeds which occasionally resemble heavy snow flurries despite the summery feel to the weather. Will post a picture of a drift of this material in the photography forum later today.0 -
Thursday, 13 June, 2019
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 13 to 19 June 2019 ...
-- temperatures will average about 2 deg below normal.
-- rainfall will average near normal in the east and slightly below normal in the west, with some pockets of above normal rainfall in the inland south.
-- sunshine will average only about half the normal values of 5-6 hours a day.
FORECASTS
TODAY will continue mostly cloudy, raw and cold with north to northeast winds 40 to 60 km/hr easing during the afternoon. There will be some further intervals of light rain or drizzle more frequent in east and south, with heavier outbreaks by afternoon in some parts of Ulster. Highs only 11 to 14 C.
TONIGHT will be cloudy with drizzle and fog patches, lows near 7 C.
FRIDAY will start out with some brighter intervals especially in central and eastern counties, then intervals of showery and heavier rain will develop this time moving from southwest to northeast but staying confined largely to Munster and south Leinster where 10-20 mm seems likely. Highs 12 to 15 C.
SATURDAY will start out unsettled with the remnants of the Friday rainfall still present in Leinster for part of the morning, before some partial clearing, with slightly warmer temperatures as a result, lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.
SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with showers and isolated thunderstorms, lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.
NEXT WEEK still looks rather unsettled but with the weather now moving from west to east, somewhat warmer temperatures in general with highs more towards the 15 to 18 C range. Rain will not be persistent but will fall for a short time most days from passing showers or brief outbreaks.
My local weather on Wednesday was sunny with considerable high cloud and hot temperatures near 30 C. Some record highs are being set throughout the western U.S. and British Columbia. It was 47 C at Thermal near Palm Springs, California, and 44 C at Phoenix. The eastern states meanwhile are relatively cool for mid-June.0 -
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Friday, 14 June, 2019
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 14 to 20 June, 2019
-- Temperatures will average 0.5 to 1.5 deg below normal, but there will be a gradual improvement after today.
-- Rainfall will average near normal in east and south, somewhat below average in north and west.
-- Sunshine will begin to improve and by end of the weekly interval some places may record near normal amounts, others half to two-thirds.
FORECASTS
TODAY will start out with some breaks in the overcast but with rain slowly gathering over Munster, turning heavier by afternoon in the south and spreading to central and eastern counties. Highs 14 to 16 C.
TONIGHT will see the rain spreading gradually towards the east coast, total amounts by morning 10-15 mm, but further north it will be showery and amounts will be 2-5 mm. Lows near 10 C.
SATURDAY will have a slow clearing trend with the rain gradually ending over Leinster, scattered and isolated showers may follow from west coast inland, but there will be longer dry intervals with some sunny breaks. Highs 15 to 17 C.
SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with passing showers, lows near 8 C and highs near 17 C.
MONDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers, lows near 6 C and highs near 17 C.
TUESDAY could be the first really decent day in a while for many, with sunny breaks and highs 18 to 20 C.
WEDNESDAY will see a return to cloud and some scattered outbreaks of light rain, highs near 16 C.
OUTLOOK beyond that is rather uncertain, I don't think the pattern will totally change as there could be a few intervals of heavier showers to follow, but also some days that will be dry and near normal in temperature, so I think we can at least say the worst of this June has come and gone, or that will be the case by early next week at any rate.
My local weather was sunny most of the day with a high near 28 C. A line of thunderstorms approached from the north and stalled over the hills north of the town, we had some intense thunder and lightning at about 6 p.m. local time, and strong wind gusts, but no rain fell here, it came down heavily about 1-2 kms to my north. Those storms then just dissipated as the front had reached its limit apparently, and by sunset it had cleared up again.0 -
Saturday, 15 June, 2019
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 15 to 21 June, 2019
-- Temperatures will average 0.5 to 1.5 deg below normal.
-- Rainfall will average near normal in east and south or slightly above in some higher areas of the southeast, but somewhat below average in north and west.
-- Sunshine will continue to improve and some places may record near normal amounts, others half to two-thirds.
FORECASTS
TODAY will have a slow clearing trend with the rain gradually ending over coastal north Leinster and eventually also in east Ulster, but after some partial clearing, a few scattered and isolated showers may follow from west coast inland, but there will be a few more dry intervals with some sunny breaks. Highs 15 to 17 C.
TONIGHT will become partly cloudy with a few clear intervals, cool, leading to low-lying patchy ground fog or mist, lows 4 to 8 C.
SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with passing showers, lows 4 to 8 C and highs near 17 C. Some heavier bursts of rain are likely by afternoon in south Leinster with isolated thunderstorms in counties around Laois, Carlow and Kildare. Rainfalls of 5 to 15 mm can be expected in those areas.
MONDAY will be partly cloudy with somewhat more isolated showers but also one or two thunderstorms most likely to form over inland northern counties, lows near 6 C and highs near 17 C.
TUESDAY could be the first really decent day in a while for many, with sunny breaks and highs 18 to 20 C. There could be patchy isolated showers by late afternoon and evening across parts of the inland south though.
WEDNESDAY will see a return to cloud and some scattered outbreaks of light rain, highs near 16 C.
THURSDAY will also be unsettled with showers, highs near 16 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for continued rather unsettled but not as chilly as recent days, but eventually one or two more bouts of heavy rain likely, moving across the south and central counties from southwest to northeast.
My local weather on Friday was sunny with afternoon cloudy intervals, still quite warm with low humidity, highs near 27 C.0 -
Sunday, 16 June, 2019
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 16 to 22 June, 2019
-- Temperatures will average near normal for mid-June.
-- Rainfall will average 75 to 100 per cent of normal, with the lower values in parts of the west.
-- Sunshine will average near normal also, about six hours a day on average.
FORECASTS
TODAY will start out dry and there may be some sunny breaks this morning, but showers will spread across most parts of the country by this afternoon with isolated thunderstorms possible. Highs will be around 16 C.
TONIGHT the showers will gradually die out with some clearing towards morning, fog patches, and lows of 5 to 8 C.
MONDAY will have another round of showers, not quite as widespread as today, with highs near 17 C.
TUESDAY still looks like a generally dry day with isolated showers most likely in parts of the north and highs will reach 19 or 20 C.
WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy with a few showers and highs near 19 C.
THURSDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with showers and cooler temperatures around 16 C.
FRIDAY will bring partial clearing and the weekend of 22nd-23rd currently looks settled with decent temperatures around 20 C.
The further outlook is not as good with the last week of June looking unsettled with rather cool temperatures setting in, highs 16 or 17 C and frequent outbreaks of rain.
My local weather on Saturday was dry and warm with considerable cloudiness most of the day, brief sunny intervals, and highs near 25 C.0 -
Monday, 17 June, 2019
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 17 to 23 June, 2019
-- Temperatures will average near or slightly above normal. The average daytime high will edge up towards 20 C.
-- Rainfall will be generally a bit below average, 10 to 15 mm for most locations.
-- Sunshine will be close to normal values or slightly above in some parts of the south and east.
FORECASTS
TODAY will have another round of showers, but mostly confined to north Connacht and Ulster, eventually a few widely scattered elsewhere after a few sunny intervals as well, and highs will reach about 17 C.
TONIGHT will see some clearing in places and lows 4 to 8 C.
TUESDAY looks like being generally dry with isolated showers most likely in parts of the north, and highs will reach 19 or 20 C.
WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy with a few showers, lows 5 to 9 C and highs near 19 C.
THURSDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with showers and cooler temperatures by afternoon with lows near 10 C and highs around 16 C.
FRIDAY will bring partial clearing and highs near 17 C, with a few isolated showers.
WEEKEND (22nd-23rd) looks mainly settled with decent temperatures around 20 C and some sunshine both days.
Rain is expected by Sunday night into Monday 24th, then the following week seems likely to be rather unsettled but with temperatures staying close to normal (18-20 C by day).
My local weather on Sunday was sunny during the morning and overcast during the afternoon, a few showers are now moving through with a weak frontal trough but it should clear here by morning. The high was about 25 C.0 -
Tuesday, 18 June, 2019
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 18 to 24 June, 2019
-- Temperatures will average near or slightly above normal. The average daytime high will edge up towards 20 C.
-- Rainfall will be generally a bit below average, 10 to 15 mm for most locations, closer to 20 mm in parts of Ulster.
-- Sunshine will be close to normal values or slightly above in some parts of the south and east.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be generally dry with generous amounts of sunshine for the south, central and eastern counties, but some isolated showers most likely in parts of the north, and highs will reach 19 to 21 C.
TONIGHT will see a gradual increase in higher cloud dimming the full moon, and lows near 7 C.
WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy with a few showers, and highs near 19 C. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 mm in most places.
THURSDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with showers and cooler temperatures by afternoon with lows near 10 C and highs around 16 C. Rainfalls of about 5 mm.
FRIDAY will bring partial clearing after lows near 6 C and highs will reach about 17 C, with a few isolated showers.
SATURDAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals, and reasonably warm, with highs near 21 C.
SUNDAY will see increasing cloud leading to light rain spreading in from the south by late afternoon, but it may stay dry further north until evening, highs of about 18 C.
MONDAY will likely see another rainfall event of about 10 to 15 mm, with some thundery heavy bursts possible, highs near 17 C.
OUTLOOK ... That rainfall should begin to dissipate on Tuesday with slow clearing followed by several dry but increasingly warm days later next week, when there is potential for the first real warm spell since Easter, with highs reaching mid 20s. Although reliability decreases towards the end of the model guidance, for what it's worth this warm spell is depicted to break down to frequent rain in early July, but that could change closer to the time.
My local weather on Monday started out sunny, then overcast by early afternoon with a fairly heavy thunderstorm from about 4 to 5 p.m. that dropped around 20 mm of rain, but not severe in any other sense. That slowly broke up and moved away to the south leaving some blue sky in the evening. The high was about 25 C.0 -
Wednesday, 19 June, 2019
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 19 to 25 June, 2019
-- Temperatures will average near to 1.5 degrees above normal. The average daytime high will be 18 to 20 C.
-- Rainfall will eventually reach about average, 15 to 20 mm for most locations, but the last two days of the interval will produce much of this total.
-- Sunshine will be close to normal values or slightly above in some parts of the south and east.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be partly cloudy with a few showers, and highs near 19 C. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 mm in most places. A few heavier showers or an isolated thunderstorm may develop in central counties by late afternoon.
TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy with a few showers, more clear intervals towards morning, and lows 8 to 10 C.
THURSDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with showers and cooler temperatures by afternoon with highs around 16 C. Rainfalls of about 5 mm.
FRIDAY will bring partial clearing after lows near 6 C and highs will reach about 17 C, with a few isolated showers.
SATURDAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals, and reasonably warm, with highs near 21 C. There could be some outbreaks of drizzle or light rain in the south later in the day, and it will become muggy in southeast winds that may cool some coastal areas in Leinster to 16 C.
SUNDAY will see increasing cloud leading to light rain spreading in from the south by late afternoon, but it may stay dry further north until evening, highs of about 18 C.
MONDAY will likely see another rainfall event of about 10 to 15 mm, with some thundery heavy bursts possible, highs near 17 C.
TUESDAY may see further showers and thunderstorms, and it will be rather warm and humid, highs near 19 C.
LATER NEXT WEEK some very warm to hot air will be spreading from France into the southern half of Britain. Ireland and Wales will be in a frontal zone and while quite warm also (near 23 C) not at this point looking like the heat further east will spread in, but the frontal contrast will set up good chances for thunderstorms some of which could be heavy. Too early to say exactly where and when these chances will materialize but current maps would point to higher risks in the inland south then midlands to west Ulster. That's not entirely ruling out other regions of Ireland. This pattern may become a more frequent feature moving into July as the hot air masses seem to be well established by then over the near continent and southeast England.
My local weather on Tuesday was sunny with cloudy intervals, dry and pleasant with highs near 24 C. We are expecting some light rain to move in from the north today with falling temperatures later.0 -
Thursday, 20 June, 2019
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 20 to 26 June 2019
-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal, reaching a peak of about 5 deg above normal at end of the interval.
-- Rainfall will average 1.5 to 2.0 times the normal amount, here again, much of that will occur from Monday to Wednesday.
-- Sunshine will average near normal although the trend will be more sunshine in the first half and more cloud from Sunday on.
FORECASTS
TODAY will start out sunny in east and south, partly cloudy with showers in west and north. The coverage of showers will increase later, and most places will eventually have some rain, amounts near 10 mm possible in some central and northern counties. Highs 15 to 18 C.
TONIGHT will see gradual clearing after last of the showers die out, and cool with lows 4 to 8 C.
FRIDAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals and isolated showers, highs near 19 C.
SATURDAY will also be sunny with cloudy intervals, some outbreaks of light rain later in the day in west Munster, and warmer with highs reaching 21 C inland.
SUNDAY will become mostly cloudy although it may remain dry in parts of north and east. Rain will spread slowly into all parts of Munster and then south Leinster and Connacht by late afternoon. Rather warm still, and more humid, with highs near 19 C.
MONDAY will have intervals of heavy and in some places thundery rain from early morning to mid-day, some clearing thereafter, and becoming quite warm with the clearance, temperatures rising from 15 C in the rain to 20 C in partly cloudy but humid weather later on.
TUESDAY will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms, warm and humid with highs near 23 C.
Around this time heat will be spreading from France into southern Britain where temperatures could reach mid 30s.
OUTLOOK -- As the heat persists for several days across much of England, heavy thunderstorms could develop in Wales, southwest England and some eastern parts of Ireland, possibly extending as far west as Cork on the south coast too. Details on this will emerge with more clarity but it seems very likely to be quite warm and humid with at least some thunderstorm activity, intensity to be nailed down closer to the time. High temperatures will continue to be in the mid 20s and overnight lows near 17 C in Ireland, and will also continue very hot in England and most of France. A cooling trend will develop around Friday 28th with temperatures returning to more normal values by the weekend of the 29th-30th in a partly cloudy showery west to northwest air flow replacing the heat wave and driving it further east into central Europe.
My local weather on Wednesday was mostly cloudy with a few sunny breaks, and passing showers developed with a few distant rumbles of thunder from heavier showers off to our east. It turned much cooler than recent days with mid-day temperatures around 15 C.0 -
Friday, 21 June, 2019
Forecasts for Ireland
The summer solstice occurs today at 16:56 IST (15:56 z or UTC)
TRENDS for the week of 21 to 27 June 2019
-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg above normal, reaching a peak of about 5 deg above normal at end of the interval.
-- Rainfall will average 1.0 to 2.0 times the normal amount, here again, much of that will occur from Monday to Thursday. Amounts could be quite variable from one location to another as some of this rainfall will be provided by localized thunderstorms.
-- Sunshine will average near normal although there will be considerable cloud on Sunday and (in the north) on Monday.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals and isolated showers, highs near 19 C.
TONIGHT will have clear intervals and some fog patches may develop in valleys after midnight. Lows will range from 5 C in some inland valleys to 10 C in larger towns and coastal areas.
SATURDAY will also be sunny with cloudy intervals, with some outbreaks of light rain later in the day in west Munster, and warmer with highs reaching 21 C inland.
SUNDAY will become mostly cloudy although it may remain dry in parts of north and east. Rain will spread slowly into all parts of Munster and then south Leinster and Connacht by afternoon. Rather warm still, and more humid, with highs near 19 C.
MONDAY will have intervals of heavy and in some places thundery rain from early morning to mid-day, bringing total rainfalls of 10 to 20 mm to many areas, then some clearing thereafter, and becoming quite warm with the clearance, temperatures rising from 15 C in the rain to 20 C in partly cloudy but humid weather later on.
TUESDAY will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be heavy in north Leinster and east Ulster, and it will become warm and humid with highs near 23 C away from east facing coasts where sea breezes may hold readings to 17 C.
Around this time heat will be spreading from France into southern Britain where temperatures could reach the low to mid 30s for several days ... this heat will be edging northwest each day and could spread into some parts of eastern Ireland although with coastal modification; however, details are going to be difficult to assess until we get closer to the time, as frontal zones are likely to set up through various parts of Ireland each day, and this could lead to several rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
OUTLOOK then for WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY calls for very warm and rather humid weather with scattered outbreaks of thundery rain possible, but also some spells of sunshine, highs 23 to 27 C and muggy nights with lows only falling to around 16 to 18 C. Some western counties may get a fresher Atlantic air mass for Friday, and this will spread into other regions by Saturday. There is some potential for heavy rain to develop near an intensifying disturbance along the frontal boundary in the Irish Sea, and that could affect some parts of east Ulster and Leinster, if not more widespread areas, by Saturday 29th. Eventually it appears that the weather will return to the recent mode of cool, unsettled westerly flow in the first part of July with the heat pushed well to the east of Britain by then.
My local weather on Thursday was overcast, damp and quite chilly most of the day, with some clearing by late afternoon. Highs were only about 14 C. The snow line has come back down in recent days to about 1400m and some passing showers have left a temporary white covering on local hills that reach as high as 2000m (my own elevation is 1060m, and the highest elevation within 50 kms of here is Old Glory Mountain which reaches about 2400m, located about 30 kms northwest of us -- there was a weather station up there for many years when it was a manned forestry lookout).0 -
Saturday, 22 June, 2019
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 22 to 28 June 2019
-- Temperatures will average 3 to 4 deg above normal, reaching a peak of about 5 deg above normal at end of the interval.
-- Rainfall will average 1.0 to 2.0 times the normal amount, but amounts could be quite variable from one location to another as some of this rainfall will be provided by localized thunderstorms.
-- Sunshine will average near normal although there will be considerable cloud on Sunday and (in the north) on Monday. However, some coastal areas of south may have less sunshine due to rather frequent low cloud from sea fog or marine layers.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be sunny with increasing high clouds, with some outbreaks of light rain later in the day in west Munster, and warm with highs reaching 21 C inland.
TONIGHT will see rain spreading gradually north through most of Munster, south Connacht and south Leinster where amounts of about 5 mm are likely. It should stay dry further north, with drizzle by morning in some places. Lows 10 to 13 C.
SUNDAY will become mostly cloudy although it may remain dry in parts of north and east for much of the day. Rain will spread slowly into all parts of Munster and then south Leinster and Connacht by mid-day, and further north by evening. Rather warm still, and more humid, with highs near 19 C.
MONDAY will have intervals of heavy and in some places thundery rain from early morning to mid-day, bringing total rainfalls of 10 to 20 mm to many areas, then some clearing thereafter, and becoming quite warm with the clearance, temperatures rising from 15 C in the rain to 20 C or a little above well inland, in partly cloudy but humid weather later on. Sea fog or low cloud may begin to make an appearance on parts of the south coast.
TUESDAY will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be heavy in north Leinster and east Ulster, and it will become warm and humid with highs near 23 C away from east facing coasts where sea breezes may hold readings to 17 C.
Around this time heat will be spreading from France into southern Britain where temperatures could reach the low to mid 30s for several days ... this heat will be edging northwest each day and could spread into some parts of eastern Ireland although with coastal modification; however, details are going to be difficult to assess until we get closer to the time, as frontal zones are likely to set up through various parts of Ireland each day, and this could lead to several rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will be very warm and humid, with occasional spells of thundery rain likely, but also some brighter intervals, with overnight lows 15 to 19 C and highs 23 to 28 C. South and east coasts could experience localized sea fog, low cloud and cooler temperatures as the winds will be generally light to moderate southeast to east.
OUTLOOK for the weekend of 29th-30th ... The warm spell will break down around Saturday with the potential for some heavy showers or thunderstorms, then fresher conditions will arrive for Sunday 30th. Highs will be about 23 C on Saturday and 19 C on Sunday.
The first part of July at this point looks cooler and unsettled.
My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy with a high of about 18 C.0 -
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Sunday, 23 June, 2019
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 23 to 29 June 2019
-- Temperatures will average 3 to 4 deg above normal, reaching a peak of about 5 deg above normal at end of the interval.
-- Rainfall will average 1.0 to 2.5 times the normal amount, but amounts could be quite variable from one location to another as some of this rainfall will be provided by localized thunderstorms. The southwest now appears more likely to see the heavier amounts.
-- Sunshine will average between 75% and 100% of normal although there will be considerable cloud on Sunday and (in the north) on Monday. However, some coastal areas of south may have less sunshine due to rather frequent low cloud from sea fog or marine layers.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be cloudy with outbreaks of rain, although it may remain dry in parts of north and northeast for much of the day. Rain will spread slowly from Munster, south Leinster and Connacht further north by mid-day, and into remaining northern areas by evening. Rather warm still, and more humid, with highs near 16 to 19 C (warmest ahead of the rain in Ulster) but some places near the south coast may remain closer to 14 C with fog and mist spreading inland from the sea.
TONIGHT will see further outbreaks of rain and amounts could reach 30 mm in parts of west Munster and the south midlands by morning. It will be quite mild with lows 11 to 13 C.
MONDAY will have intervals of heavy and in some places thundery rain from early morning to mid-day, bringing total rainfalls of 10 to 20 mm to many areas, then some clearing thereafter, and becoming quite warm with the clearance, temperatures rising from 15 C in the rain to 20 C or a little above well inland, in partly cloudy but humid weather later on. Sea fog or low cloud may begin to make an appearance on parts of the south coast.
TUESDAY will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be heavy in two areas, inland southwest, and also north Leinster and east Ulster, elsewhere it will become warm and humid with highs near 23 C away from east facing coasts where sea breezes may hold readings to 15 to 17 C. Some mist and sea fog is likely near south coast and may drift inland on east coast at times.
WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will be very warm and humid, with occasional spells of thundery rain likely, but also some brighter intervals, with overnight lows 15 to 19 C and highs 23 to 28 C. South and east coasts could experience localized sea fog, low cloud and cooler temperatures as the winds will be generally light to moderate southeast to east. The inland southwest is more likely to see heavy rainfall outbreaks and thunderstorms than elsewhere, although the risk will become more widespread towards the end of Friday.
OUTLOOK for the weekend of 29th-30th ... The warm spell will break down around Saturday with the potential for some heavy showers or thunderstorms, then fresher conditions will arrive for Sunday 30th. Highs will be about 23 C on Saturday and 19 C on Sunday.
The first part of July now begins to look rather pleasant for a few days with sunshine and highs in the low 20s, before cooler and unsettled weather arrives by about the 5th.
My local weather on Saturday was mostly cloudy with outbreaks of rain and a few rumbles of thunder by late afternoon and evening; the highs were around 15 C.0
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