Hurricane IGOR

maquiladora · 08-09-2010 4:05pm #1

...IGOR FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...

11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 8
Location: 13.7°N 23.5°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: W at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb

dexter647 · 08-09-2010 9:05pm

another monster on the way i'd say:)

Hal1 · 08-09-2010 9:42pm

dexter647 wrote: »

another monster on the way i'd say:)

It's alive :pac:. *claps of thunder*... /coat

maquiladora · 09-09-2010 9:05am

Looking at that turn towards the end of the forecast track, it looks like Igor could just be a fish storm. Long way to go yet though.

Su Campu · 09-09-2010 10:31am

He's suffering a little from windshear at the moment but should come through it in the next 24hrs or so and start strengthening

000
WTNT41 KNHC 090837
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 AM AST THU SEP 09 2010

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND
CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY SHEARED. NEITHER SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES NOR ASCAT MEASUREMENTS SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 35 KNOTS AND THIS
ESTIMATE IS GENEROUS. IGOR COULD WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE TODAY BUT
GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE STILL HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND IS MOVING
TOWARD A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOWER SHEAR AND WARMER
OCEAN...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING COULD BEGIN IN 24 HOUR OR SO. IGOR
IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.

FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS STILL
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SUGGESTING THAT IGOR HAS
BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE LARGE
CIRCULATION SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
LATER TODAY. THE STEERING PATTERN OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS BEEN QUITE
PERSISTENT AND CONSISTS OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE BASIN AND A BROAD TROUGH OSCILLATING BETWEEN THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. THIS
STEERING PATTERN WHICH IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
CONTINUE...WOULD FAVOR A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND THEN A TURN MORE TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK
GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0900Z 13.8N 24.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 14.0N 25.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 10/0600Z 15.0N 28.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 16.0N 31.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 16.5N 34.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 12/0600Z 17.0N 40.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 13/0600Z 18.0N 44.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 14/0600Z 19.5N 49.0W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Su Campu · 09-09-2010 11:45am

Some nice convection from Igor showing up on the Santa Maria webcam in Cape Verde today

maquiladora · 11-09-2010 12:55pm

...IGOR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...

5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 11
Location: 17.1°N 37.8°W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: W at 21 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb

dexter647 · 11-09-2010 9:34pm

igor looks heads on to big be a major hurricane next week but the big question is will it pose a risk to land or be just another fish storm

maquiladora · 11-09-2010 9:48pm

dexter647 wrote: »

igor looks heads on to big be a major hurricane next week but the big question is will it pose a risk to land or be just another fish storm

Good model support for Igor to start to curve NW after a couple of days. It's still too early to know for sure though, he isnt a hurricane yet.

One for Bermuda to watch maybe.

billy the squid · 12-09-2010 3:43am

Igor has just been declared a cat 1 hurricane. tis going to be a fish though.

gally74 · 12-09-2010 8:51am

i hope it tracks over iceland!!!

gally74 · 12-09-2010 8:52am

i find this site quite good, turn on forecast models,

http://tropical.rbee44.com/

Iancar29 · 12-09-2010 9:56am

Tis Hurricane Igor now people!

maquiladora · 12-09-2010 12:49pm

Doesn't look like a threat to the US east coast but Bermuda and perhaps Newfoundland should keep an eye on Igor.

Looks like we will have two new TD's soon too. Invest 92 is at 60% and Invest 93 at 90%.

gally74 · 12-09-2010 7:00pm

now a cat 2

TheInquisitor · 12-09-2010 7:20pm

Igor has explosively gone from a CAT 1 to a CAT four in less than a day. Its becoming a MONSTER!!

000
WTNT31 KNHC 121806
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
230 PM AST SUN SEP 12 2010

...IGOR RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 230 PM AST...1830 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...17.7N 46.1W
ABOUT 1120 MI...1800 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
AT 230 PM AST...1830 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.1 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

John2009 · 12-09-2010 7:42pm

Beautiful Hurricane

Hooter23 · 12-09-2010 8:02pm

Cat 1 to Cat 4 in less than a day didn't even know that was possible:eek:

dexter647 · 12-09-2010 8:13pm

Wow igor has indeed turned into a beast...TD 12 looks like it could be following soon as well

Birdnuts · 12-09-2010 8:29pm

Wheres this boyo headed

ronnie3585 · 12-09-2010 9:02pm

Nicely visible here;

maquiladora · 12-09-2010 11:02pm

Amazing rapid strengthening from Igor today. It should reach its peak in 2 or 3 days and may get to Cat 5 status.

Models :

maquiladora · 13-09-2010 1:25pm

Classic hurricane 20100913.1115.goes13.x.vis1km_high.11LIGOR.130kts-935mb-177N-484W.100pc.jpg

Iancar29 · 13-09-2010 4:02pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Classic hurricane

AMAZING! THAT SURE IS SERIOUS LOOKING!

maquiladora · 13-09-2010 4:18pm

Igor is south is where most of the models wanted him to be at the moment.
Should be starting to turn more northward today though.

gbee · 13-09-2010 4:30pm

Birdnuts wrote: »

Wheres this boyo headed

Bermuda, and then towards US! How are you enjoying Fiona?

So far this year, but it's far too early to say, Igor has the most potential to be still a storm if and when it hits us.

Fiona took a direct aim at us but had weakened to sub tropical and as good as disappeared and has brought light rain to our shores and light winds.

Igor is worth watching.

Hooter23 · 13-09-2010 11:33pm

On the current model output it shows in about 10 days time the remnants of Hurricane Igor I think headed close to Ireland it re- intensifies as it approaches us :eek: and looks quite violent.
But 10 days is along time and the model output will constantly change but worth keeping an eye on!

dexter647 · 14-09-2010 12:43am

i think i'll cancel my holiday to bermuda:D... on a seroius note i hope they don't take a direct hit as the present models suggest..

forkassed · 14-09-2010 9:16am

maquiladora · 14-09-2010 9:25am

Igor looks to have begun his expected turn to the NW.

US east coast looks like it will be safe but Bermuda needs to keep an eye on him.

As for the long term path of Igor and Ireland, well the last two GFS models had the remains of Igor going to either Greenland or Portugal so I wouldn't pay attention to any long term models tracks at the moment! :P

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html

Su Campu · 14-09-2010 9:03pm

http://www.accuweather.com/video/609453429001/amazing-hurricane-igor-satelli.asp

Hurricane IGOR

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