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January 2020 Boards weather forecast contest -- new participants welcome

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After the first week ...

    IMT on 7.6 which is 2.3 above normal.

    MAX of 14.4, MIN still looking for our location.

    PRC was 64.5% of normal.

    SUN was 103% (619/600), Belmullet rather cloudy otherwise average around 130%.

    As reported above, max gust so far is 59 knots.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    -1.3C Markree, 10th.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    OMG if that were to hold up to end of month. I think there's a -2 coming along though.

    The IMT was 6.9 after ten days (Shannon at 8.0). It may stay there one more day then begin a slow decline, thinking the mean temperature Sunday to a week from today will be closer to 5.5, which would leave the IMT at about 6.3 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,776 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    73 Knots at Roches Point yesterday - blows my prediction out of the water


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After two weeks ...

    IMT now at 6.6 with the second week 5.6 (0.5 above normal).

    MAX 14.4, MIN -1.3

    PRC now up to 120% as the second week was 175% of normal.

    SUN down to 95% as the second week at 87% (522/600).

    ______________________________________________

    Bonus scoring if the 73 knot gust at Roches' Point holds up ...

    10 pts _ Tae laidir and JPmarn (predicted 72)

    9 pts _ BLIZZARD7 and Rikand (predicted 75)

    8 pts _ Bsal (70) and MrSkinner, Kindred spirit (69)

    7 pts _ M.T. Cranium (78) and Adam240610 (68)

    6 pts _ Dacogawa (67) also NormaL (67)

    5 pts _ JCX BXC, Pauldry, Dasa29 (all 65) also Con Sensus (65)

    4 pts _ Joe Public (64) and Sunflower3 (62)

    3 pts _ sryanbruen, esposito, Western Storm (all 60)

    2 pts _ Artane2002 (59), John mac and DOCARCH (both 58)

    1 pt __ mickger844posts (57), 200motels (55)

    (will adjust if we do get a stronger wind gust, not really expecting that now)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 706 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    -2.0 around the Fields of Athenry yesterday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    -4c there this morning and -4.5c in Ballymote


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    -5c in both Mt Dillon and Mullingar


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,620 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    -5.7c was low at Mullingar (according to ME this morning). Hoping for a correction to -5.8c! ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,099 ✭✭✭John mac


    still -5 at 4 stations at 08:00


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    MIN is now -6.1 recorded at Mullingar on the 19th.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After three weeks ...

    IMT on 5.9 (5.86) with third week a rather chilly 4.4 (0.8 below normal).

    MAX 14.4 MIN -6.1

    PRC 92% of normal after a dry 36% recorded in third week.

    SUN took a big jump to 132% as third week quite bright at 205% (1231/600).

    Max gust remains 73 knots.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After four weeks ...

    IMT on 5.8 with the fourth week at 5.5 (0.5 above normal). Looks like a finish on 5.9 is most probable.

    MAX remains 14.4 and MIN -6.1.

    PRC at 83% with this past week rather dry at 67% of normal. This will perhaps finish as low as 80%.

    SUN has dipped to 117% with this past week on 72% (430/600). The finish here will be around 115%.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    With a very mild finish to the month, the IMT managed to reach 6.0 C. There was a run at a new MAX but nothing above 14 was reported.

    The PRC appears to be 81% and Claremorris was the only one of the eleven sites we use that came in above normal.

    SUN has been rather dim in the final three days so will adjust that estimate down to 110%.

    I will provide some provisional scoring as it will be the 4th of Feb before we see the MS.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Provisional scoring for January 2020

    * minimum progression required for MIN scores, boost reduced by half due to raw scores of 18 (which went to 20).


    FORECASTER _______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___Max gust__TOTAL

    Estimated values _____ 6.0_14.4_-6.1_081_110___73


    Mrskinner ___________ 24 _ 15 _ 20*_ 12 _ 08 __ 08 _____ 87

    Jpmarn _____________ 23 _ 20 _ 18*_ 07 _ 09 __ 10 _____ 87

    Dacogawa ___________ 20 _ 20 _ 20*_ 02 _ 06 __ 06 _____ 74

    Joe Public _____ (-2) ___16 _ 14 _ 17*_ 12 _ 10 __ 04 _73-2=71


    ___ Con Sensus ______ 24 _ 17 _ 09*_ 09 _ 07 __ 05 _____ 71

    ___ NormaL _________ 16 _ 16 _ 16*_ 09 _ 08 __ 06 _____ 71


    M.T. Cranium ________ 17 _ 17 _ 09*_ 10 _ 10 __ 07 _____ 70

    Sunflower3 __________ 23 _ 14 _ 08*_ 14 _ 06 __ 04 _____ 69

    Tae laidir ____________24 _ 08 _ 10*_ 10 _ 06 __ 10 _____ 68

    Rikand ______________20 _ 14 _ 04*_ 12 _ 08 __ 09 _____ 67

    BLIZZARD7 ___ (-3) ___17 _ 11 _ 16*_ 07 _ 10 __ 09 _70-3=67

    john mac _____ (-2) ___20 _ 13 _ 17*_ 07 _ 08 __ 02 _67-2=65

    Pauldry _____________ 20 _ 18 _ 06*_ 09 _ 06 __ 05 _____ 64

    Bsal ________________ 20 _ 07 _ 09*_ 12 _ 07 __ 08 _____ 63

    Adam240610 __ (-2) __ 25 _ 09 _ 09*_ 09 _ 06 __ 07 _65-2=63

    Kindred Spirit ________ 19 _ 11 _ 04*_ 10 _ 10 __ 08 _____ 62

    DOCARCH ___________ 15 _ 03 _ 19*_ 12 _ 08 __ 02 _____ 59

    JCXBXC ______ (-2) ___19 _ 14 _ 10*_ 07 _ 06 __ 05 _61-2=59

    Artane2002 __________ 21 _ 13 _ 01*_ 14 _ 06 __ 02 _____ 57

    mickger844posts ______22 _ 17 _ 02*_ 10 _ 04 __ 01 _____ 56

    WesternStorm ________14 _ 16 _ 04*_ 11 _ 07 __ 03 _____ 55

    esposito _____________22 _ 15 _ 00 _ 05 _ 05 __ 03 _____ 50

    Dasa29 _____________ 15 _ 06 _ 04*_ 09 _ 10 __ 05 _____ 49

    sryanbruen __________ 17 _ 13 _ 04*_ 07 _ 04 __ 03 _____ 48

    200motels ___________16 _ 17 _ 04*_ 06 _ 04 __ 01 _____ 48


    ============================================

    (actual forecasts)

    FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max gust (kn)

    200motels __________ 6.9 _ 14.1 _-4.0 _ 107 _ 080 ____ 55

    BLIZZARD7 ___ (-3) __ 6.8 _ 15.3 _-7.0 _ 105 _ 110 ____ 75

    sryanbruen __________6.8 _ 15.1 _-4.0 _ 105 _ 080 ____ 60

    M.T. Cranium ________ 6.8 _ 14.7 _-4.5 _ 095 _ 110 ____ 78

    JCXBXC ______ (-2) __ 6.6 _ 15.0 _-4.7 _ 105 _ 090 ____ 65

    Pauldry _____________6.5 _ 14.2 _-4.3 _ 100 _ 090 ____ 65

    Artane2002 _________ 6.4 _ 15.1 _-3.7 _ 085 _ 090 ____ 59

    esposito ____________ 6.2 _ 14.9 _-3.6 _ 110 _ 085 ____ 60

    mickger844posts _____ 6.2 _ 14.1 _-3.8 _ 095 _ 080 ____ 57

    Tae laidir ____________6.1 _ 13.2 _-4.6 _ 095 _ 090 ____ 72

    Adam240610 __ (-2) __ 6.0 _ 13.3 _-4.4 _ 100 _ 090 ____ 68

    Mrskinner ___________ 5.9 _ 13.9 _-5.9 _ 089 _ 099 ____ 69


    ___ Con Sensus ______ 5.9 _ 14.1 _-4.4 _ 100 _ 095 ____ 65


    Jpmarn _____________ 5.8 _ 14.4 _-5.5 _ 105 _ 105 ____ 72

    Sunflower3 __________ 5.8 _ 13.8 _-4.2 _ 085 _ 090 ____ 62

    Rikand ______________5.5 _ 15.0 _-4.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 75

    Dacogawa ___________ 5.5 _ 14.4 _-6.3 _ 120 _ 092 ____ 67

    john mac _____ (-2) ___5.5 _ 13.7 _-5.3 _ 105 _ 100 ____ 58

    Bsal ________________ 5.5 _ 13.1 _-4.5 _ 090 _ 095 ____ 70

    Kindred Spirit _________5.4 _ 13.5 _-4.0 _ 095 _ 110 ____ 69


    NormaL _____________ 5.1 _ 14.0 _-7.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 67


    Joe Public _____ (-2) ___5.1 _ 13.8 _-6.9 _ 089 _ 109 ____ 64

    Dasa29 ______________5.0 _ 13.0 _-4.0 _ 100 _ 110 ____ 65

    DOCARCH ____________5.0 _ 12.7 _-5.8 _ 090 _ 100 ____ 58

    WesternStorm ________ 4.9 _ 14.0 _-4.0 _ 093 _ 097 ____ 60

    ______________________________________________________________

    Will be confirming these scores or adjusting them on the 4th. Looks like MrSkinner and JPmarn have sprinted out to an early lead with Dacogawa and Joe Public managing to stay within sight. Scoring in general fairly good I would say, don't often see a month with no scores below 48. No advantage in hugging consensus or normal this time.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    So the monthly summary appeared today and eventually so did MTC (long day for me on Monday, slept in) ... all appears good with the provisional scoring except that SUN calculates to 115% instead of 110% as used. This will alter most scores by one point. Revised scoring will be posted soon. It looks like everyone loses one point except Rikand who goes up one point (he had 120% for SUN). Will still post the new table anyway.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Updated (final) scoring for January 2020

    * minimum progression required for MIN scores, boost reduced by half due to raw scores of 18 (which went to 20).


    FORECASTER _______ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___Max gust__TOTAL

    Confirmed values _____ 6.0_14.4_-6.1_081_115___73


    Mrskinner ___________ 24 _ 15 _ 20*_ 12 _ 07 __ 08 _____ 86

    Jpmarn _____________ 23 _ 20 _ 18*_ 07 _ 08 __ 10 _____ 86

    Dacogawa ___________ 20 _ 20 _ 20*_ 02 _ 05 __ 06 _____ 73

    Joe Public _____ (-2) ___16 _ 14 _ 17*_ 12 _ 09 __ 04 _72-2=70


    ___ Con Sensus ______ 24 _ 17 _ 09*_ 09 _ 06 __ 05 _____ 70

    ___ NormaL _________ 16 _ 16 _ 16*_ 09 _ 07 __ 06 _____ 70


    M.T. Cranium ________ 17 _ 17 _ 09*_ 10 _ 09 __ 07 _____ 69

    Sunflower3 __________ 23 _ 14 _ 08*_ 14 _ 05 __ 04 _____ 68

    Rikand ______________20 _ 14 _ 04*_ 12 _ 09 __ 09 _____ 68

    Tae laidir ____________24 _ 08 _ 10*_ 10 _ 05 __ 10 _____ 67

    BLIZZARD7 ___ (-3) ___17 _ 11 _ 16*_ 07 _ 09 __ 09 _69-3=66

    john mac _____ (-2) ___20 _ 13 _ 17*_ 07 _ 07 __ 02 _66-2=64

    Pauldry _____________ 20 _ 18 _ 06*_ 09 _ 05 __ 05 _____ 63

    Bsal ________________20 _ 07 _ 09*_ 12 _ 06 __ 08 _____ 62

    Adam240610 __ (-2) __ 25 _ 09 _ 09*_ 09 _ 05 __ 07 _64-2=62

    Kindred Spirit ________ 19 _ 11 _ 04*_ 10 _ 09 __ 08 _____ 61

    DOCARCH ___________ 15 _ 03 _ 19*_ 12 _ 07 __ 02 _____ 58

    JCXBXC ______ (-2) ___19 _ 14 _ 10*_ 07 _ 05 __ 05 _60-2=58

    Artane2002 __________ 21 _ 13 _ 01*_ 14 _ 05 __ 02 _____ 56

    mickger844posts ______22 _ 17 _ 02*_ 10 _ 03 __ 01 _____ 55

    WesternStorm ________14 _ 16 _ 04*_ 11 _ 06 __ 03 _____ 54

    esposito _____________22 _ 15 _ 00 _ 05 _ 04 __ 03 _____ 49

    Dasa29 _____________ 15 _ 06 _ 04*_ 09 _ 09 __ 05 _____ 48

    sryanbruen __________ 17 _ 13 _ 04*_ 07 _ 03 __ 03 _____ 47

    200motels ___________16 _ 17 _ 04*_ 06 _ 03 __ 01 _____ 47


    ============================================

    (actual forecasts)

    FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max gust (kn)

    200motels __________ 6.9 _ 14.1 _-4.0 _ 107 _ 080 ____ 55

    BLIZZARD7 ___ (-3) __ 6.8 _ 15.3 _-7.0 _ 105 _ 110 ____ 75

    sryanbruen __________6.8 _ 15.1 _-4.0 _ 105 _ 080 ____ 60

    M.T. Cranium ________ 6.8 _ 14.7 _-4.5 _ 095 _ 110 ____ 78

    JCXBXC ______ (-2) __ 6.6 _ 15.0 _-4.7 _ 105 _ 090 ____ 65

    Pauldry _____________6.5 _ 14.2 _-4.3 _ 100 _ 090 ____ 65

    Artane2002 _________ 6.4 _ 15.1 _-3.7 _ 085 _ 090 ____ 59

    esposito ____________ 6.2 _ 14.9 _-3.6 _ 110 _ 085 ____ 60

    mickger844posts _____ 6.2 _ 14.1 _-3.8 _ 095 _ 080 ____ 57

    Tae laidir ____________6.1 _ 13.2 _-4.6 _ 095 _ 090 ____ 72

    Adam240610 __ (-2) __ 6.0 _ 13.3 _-4.4 _ 100 _ 090 ____ 68

    Mrskinner ___________ 5.9 _ 13.9 _-5.9 _ 089 _ 099 ____ 69


    ___ Con Sensus ______ 5.9 _ 14.1 _-4.4 _ 100 _ 095 ____ 65


    Jpmarn _____________ 5.8 _ 14.4 _-5.5 _ 105 _ 105 ____ 72

    Sunflower3 __________ 5.8 _ 13.8 _-4.2 _ 085 _ 090 ____ 62

    Rikand ______________5.5 _ 15.0 _-4.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 75

    Dacogawa ___________ 5.5 _ 14.4 _-6.3 _ 120 _ 092 ____ 67

    john mac _____ (-2) ___5.5 _ 13.7 _-5.3 _ 105 _ 100 ____ 58

    Bsal ________________ 5.5 _ 13.1 _-4.5 _ 090 _ 095 ____ 70

    Kindred Spirit _________5.4 _ 13.5 _-4.0 _ 095 _ 110 ____ 69


    NormaL _____________ 5.1 _ 14.0 _-7.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 67


    Joe Public _____ (-2) ___5.1 _ 13.8 _-6.9 _ 089 _ 109 ____ 64

    Dasa29 ______________5.0 _ 13.0 _-4.0 _ 100 _ 110 ____ 65

    DOCARCH ____________5.0 _ 12.7 _-5.8 _ 090 _ 100 ____ 58

    WesternStorm ________ 4.9 _ 14.0 _-4.0 _ 093 _ 097 ____ 60

    ______________________________________________________________


    So congrats to MrSkinner and JPmarn for their high scoring efforts in January, also well done to Dacogawa and Joe Public.


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