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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2019 / 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    We always will get the moderated versions of every weather but if we dont hope theres no forum.

    The 11th to 16th will be an interesting period if somewhat messy. At least itl be active and not dead mild moist n misty.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Looks more of the same to me from what we had in November with largely unsettled weather that may become very wet at times but buckles in the jet stream so cold and wet again. NAO and AO look set to be positive which reinforce this theme. After this lovely opening to December, it can only go downhill I guess.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    The downgrades have been flying in now. I never like a Northwesterly, for Eastern areas it is just a tease but we are only 4 days into Winter so plenty of FI rollercoasters ahead :D


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,675 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Looks more of the same to me from what we had in November with largely unsettled weather that may become very wet at times but buckles in the jet stream so cold and wet again. NAO and AO look set to be positive which reinforce this theme. After this lovely opening to December, it can only go downhill I guess.

    Yesterday I looked at the gfs runs and the cool/cold spell was about 5 days and an unsettled look that wasn't overly wet. Back home this evening and the cool/cold spell is now only about 3 days and much more precipitation spikes compared to yesterday. We could be in for another deluge at some point before Christmas by the looks of it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,811 ✭✭✭Chris_5339762


    This happens every year, ridiculous charts showing -20 uppers all over Ireland with a great big easterly storm dumping ten meters of snow on Ireland with a return to the ice age and it always fades and people get really really mad and disappointed.

    And thats half the fun of this yearly model watching!


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 452 ✭✭Logan Roy


    Gonzo wrote: »
    Yesterday I looked at the gfs runs and the cool/cold spell was about 5 days and an unsettled look that wasn't overly wet. Back home this evening and the cool/cold spell is now only about 3 days and much more precipitation spikes compared to yesterday. We could be in for another deluge at some point before Christmas by the looks of it.

    Ever the optimist


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,675 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Logan Roy wrote: »
    Ever the optimist

    Just saying what the charts are showing over the next few weeks. As much as i'd love to post about crisp, sunny and frosty winter days or an incoming major snow event, I can't simply because neither are on the way to us over the next 7 to 14 days, unless things change suddenly.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭Slashermcguirk


    It does seem ominous when you look at Stockholm +5 degrees today, southern Poland around krakow nearly +10 degrees. Even Moscow is only hovering around 0. Seems to be very mild around Europe


  • Registered Users Posts: 377 ✭✭rooney30


    Complete laypersons post here, but question for ye . Why do F1 charts fairly regularly throw out very severe cold possibility’s in the distance , when very rarely, if ever , these charts come to pass .?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,339 ✭✭✭esposito


    rooney30 wrote: »
    Complete laypersons post here, but question for ye . Why do F1 charts fairly regularly throw out very severe cold possibility’s in the distance , when very rarely, if ever , these charts come to pass .?

    It’s a very good question. I’m not the person to answer this tbh but I’ve often wondered the same.

    It’s like the FI charts under estimate the power of the Atlantic/ jet stream far out. Then when it comes to 5-7 days out they seem to be able to pick up the jet stream/Atlantic signals.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,460 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    It appears that people who built the GFS don't even quite know why that happens:
    https://www.wired.com/story/the-governments-new-weather-model-faces-a-storm-of-protest/


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Thered be tumbleweed here if FI was boring


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    rooney30 wrote: »
    Complete laypersons post here, but question for ye . Why do F1 charts fairly regularly throw out very severe cold possibility’s in the distance , when very rarely, if ever , these charts come to pass .?

    It's just simply that the further out these programmes go,the more spiralled the inaccuracies become resulting eventually sometimes in extreme scenarios
    It's a finite science weather forecasting,mother nature is chaos theory personified, meaning once you go beyond the limits of the programme, you enter the realm of the atmosphere doing what it wants to do with its ingredients and obviously totally independent of any weather programme that cannot catch up


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,907 ✭✭✭Stevieluvsye


    Mortelaro wrote: »
    It's just simply that the further out these programmes go,the more spiralled the inaccuracies become resulting eventually sometimes in extreme scenarios
    It's a finite science weather forecasting,mother nature is chaos theory personified, meaning once you go beyond the limits of the programme, you enter the realm of the atmosphere doing what it wants to do with its ingredients and obviously totally independent of any weather programme that cannot catch up

    But they are not anomalies when they become the norm. Their programme frequently predicts cold and is more often that not wrong.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    They're not really anomalies because they rarely pan out at that distance
    Its just how they deal with chaos theory that far out
    It was ever thus with them
    (For as long as I've been following them anyhow)


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,907 ✭✭✭Stevieluvsye


    Mortelaro wrote: »
    They're not really anomalies because they rarely pan out at that distance
    Its just how they deal with chaos theory that far out
    It was ever thus with them
    (For as long as I've been following them anyhow)

    Surely for credibility purposes then stop producing them?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,675 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    If only we had charts like this in July and August, rather than the Christmas holidays.

    GFSOPEU18_384_1.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,840 ✭✭✭Dickie10


    so looks like lovely mild ,calm weather on stephens day?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    Dickie10 wrote: »
    so looks like lovely mild ,calm weather on stephens day?

    Nope
    Charts that far ahead aren't worth the crayons they're drew with
    Check back in about 7 days and a clearing picture might emerge


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Charts look quite unsettled on the weekend before Christmas with lots of LP's nearby. On the latest run ECM looking calmer around Christmas day and very cold as cold air mass descends down from the N. In general charts keeping on the cold side out to +240 .

    OGWkO7o.gif

    gfs-1-234_vmp3.png


    anim_xcs1.gif


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,877 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    A big swing this morning to cold weather for Christmas. I had today in mind as being the day where we start to get an idea what Christmas day will be like. Let's hope the trend continues next few days...


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    The trend is cold coz today is cold.
    When its milder later in the week the trend will be mild

    Though its certainly notvas mild as it was earlier this month


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    13, unlucky for some, looks good for Christmas tho

    gens-13-1-252.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Looking at the Met Eireann 7 day charts up to Dec 23rd a lot of moisture and a lot of South or Southwesterly airflows in it.

    Zero percent chance of snow but probably 8c most days like November.

    Wet cold is colder than minus 10 cold. My feet cant bear much more of this damp cold.

    This is the phone forecast Dec 21st to 25th for Sligo

    Dec 21st 7c showers
    Dec 22nd 8c rain
    Dec 23rd 7c rain
    Dec 24th 7c showers
    Christmas Day 7c showers


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    System directed at Kerry. It loses some intensity as it nears the SW.

    gfs-0-240.png?12


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Nabber wrote: »
    System directed at Kerry. It loses some intensity as it nears the SW.

    Something there on the ECM also if not as developed as the GFS.

    ECM1-240_srv4.GIF


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,675 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    some cold hints showing up on tonights GFS runs around new years. Several are trying to get northern blocking going. Bare in mind this is the far reaches of FI at +384 hours.

    GFS Op gets cold air to the eastern UK, not quite to Ireland.

    GFSOPEU18_384_1.png

    GFSOPEU18_384_2.png

    GFS Control makes a better effort:
    GFSC00EU18_384_1.png

    The Freezer is in over mainland UK and not that far from Dublin.
    GFSC00EU18_384_2.png

    Number 10 brings the freezer to Dublin's doorstep.
    GFSP10EU18_384_1.png

    GFSP10EU18_384_2.png

    some of the others are rather chilly as well:

    GFSP16EU18_384_1.png

    GFSP17EU18_384_1.png

    GFSP19EU18_384_1.png

    These will probably all be very different by the morning, but could we be seeing the first signs of a possible pattern change as we ring in 2020! I sure hope so.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,675 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    as expected last nights cold runs are gone, but interesting that so many of them picked up on the cold. Hopefully they will soon make a return and that i'm not chasing a carrot all the way to mid March with the cold pattern finally establishing itself in June!.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,370 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    An interesting signal alright. Sometimes they disappear and randomly return later. I get the distinct impression we won't have to wait until March this time round.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,675 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    An interesting signal alright. Sometimes they disappear and randomly return later. I get the distinct impression we won't have to wait until March this time round.

    I've a feeling we may get something too, perhaps end of January or sometime in February. This is the 3rd of 4th time the charts have picked up a cold pattern recently. Over half of last night's runs were cold runs which is a good sign, not just 1 or 2 outlying runs. The AO/NAO is set to go negative soon too and there is still the possibility of a SSW event developing between now and February so winter has alot of cards to play yet and 2 full months of hoping and waiting left to go!


This discussion has been closed.
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