Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

Just by way of a commentary
I've said several times this month that FI is FI regardless of the strat
Its still FI
The last week of January starts Jan 24 which by my reckoning is 12 days away
February even further
I think it was joanna Donnelly what said a day 10 ECM chart ain't worth the crayons it's wrote with ,(hi Joanna )
I agree
You can imagine what I think of GFS FI,that hasn't changed either
Day 12 is deep FI
I've also given the opinion at the opening of the month that I'd expect increasingly colder solutions to start arriving in models and they are in response to the strat effect and other things
All that is happening
We've a decent handle on the next 5 days and a quarter handle on the 2 or 3 after that
The only thing we can say beyond that is the likelihood of cold to very cold at times is very high and speculate
AT Times
There is a point worth noting on sliding Atlantic lows
Their warm side clashing with colder air is likely to give very heavy rain somewhere
At some point that could be snow somewhere
You just don't know yet but do you know what,my Spidey senses are telling me the white stuff won't be shy in the coming 30 days plus when 'gravity' is dropping that air down from the north
Which point from the north ?
Well northwest certainly initially but there's every chance depending on the synoptic of the week that north,northeast and east will arrive too if you get me,so buckle down?

ECM says no at day nine, ten, for whatever that's worth. Getting model weary at this stage waiting for 'trends' and agreement between them. I remain unconvinced and sceptical of any significant cold spell upcoming between now and the end of January. I can't rule out February, for cold snaps, I can offer nothing theoretical or scientific except the feeling that if the wind is in the west still by then, the daffodils will be making headway. We've seen zero snow this winter, and hardly any frost, it just smacks of being one of those forgettable seasons.