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2018 Hurricane Season
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A wide spread on the ECMWF spaghetti plot for Leslie , it had shown the remnants merge with other weather systems off the W coast of Ireland by next weekend but dropped it again , instead keeping it in the Sub Tropics. GFS has shown for a few runs now the weakened and filling remnants of Leslie off the W coast by around next fri. ???
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The NHC saying that Hurricane Oscar will strengthen to just below major Hurricane status in 24- 36 hrs. As it moves N / NE in about 48hrs it is set to gradually weaken as it passes over cooler SST's and increasing shear. It is set to transition to a strong extratropical low in 60 - 72 hrs.
The NHC noting ' Although a strong shortwave trough is
still forecast to dig southward to the west of Oscar on Wednesday,
none of the model guidance shows the hurricane being captured any
longer, and instead keep the cyclone as a separate entity that
accelerates northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies as a
strong extratropical cyclone'.
The NHC track would appear a bit closer to Ireland than the models currently suggest.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/1500Z 25.8N 58.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 26.8N 58.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 28.7N 58.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 31.4N 56.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 35.0N 52.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 43.0N 43.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/1200Z 50.0N 30.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/1200Z 55.0N 15.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATRO
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Meteorite58 wrote: »
Look to the East/Southeast of the hurricane there in the convectivey looking clouds. What is the line like feature that is developing and moving south - Looks like a squall line ? How much distance would it cover if so ?0 -
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Look to the East/Southeast of the hurricane there in the convectivey looking clouds. What is the line like feature that is developing and moving south - Looks like a squall line ? How much distance would it cover if so ?
Still firing away but maybe not as organised as seen in the earlier Satellite gif. Not much showing up on the charts to identify what it might be, I would hazard a guess and say an upper trough / tropical wave, possibly formed from the disturbance of Hurricane Oscar , moving over warm SST's with a lot of shear aiding convection.
No Expert maybe others could shed more light.
Further S huge active convection from the Monsoon Trof coming off W Africa . Very cold high cloud tops over warm SST's
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Meteorite58 wrote: »Latest guidance from the NHC shifts the track of what will become ex tropical storm Oscar further away again from Ireland keeping storm force winds well out to sea. Windy along the coasts.
The white line shows the extent of uncertainty in the location of the centre, so it is possible that it could be much nearer to (or further from) Ireland at that stage. In any case they have it down to just gale-force (45-kt 1-minute mean) by then so not much to worry about.0 -
Look to the East/Southeast of the hurricane there in the convectivey looking clouds. What is the line like feature that is developing and moving south - Looks like a squall line ? How much distance would it cover if so ?
Looks like just a type of cold front in an area of strong deep windshear. Cooler, drier air was being dragged around the south of the centre, as shown by the blue in the scan below. Convection was firing up to the east and southeast. Look at how strong the shear was in the satellite animation, with the tops being dragged to the northeast. It's nothing significant and as you said, it's dissipated a bit by now.
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