Self driving buses, trains, trucks etc

Twenty Grand · 06-10-2018 12:14am

Stephen15 wrote: »

Heard a driverless vehicle needs internet coverage in order to work properly. How the hell is that supposed to in areas without decent internet coverage. Anyone who thinks this is going to become the norm in the next 20 years is living in dream land. Also how the hell is your average mechanic supposed to fix one of these driverless vehicles.

How are we going to get enough people trained up to be able to fix these driverless vehicles in next 20 years. It seems people are getting so caught up in in the fact that the technology is coming without looking at the simple practicalities.

All these issues are in the process of being solved. Autonomous vehicles isn't just one technology, it's a culmination of many technologies.
5g has started rolling out in the US and UK. Up to 1000 times faster than 4g.

SpaceX is planning 12,000 satellites to provide total internet coverage around the world. The first batch are up already.

Regarding training, that's no problem. Sure 20 years ago there was hardly a computer in a car. Now there's hundreds and plenty of mechanics to service them. Car manufacturers will provide the training. Besides, over the air software updates will take care of most problems and auto software is much more robust than consumer goods software.

Stephen15 · 06-10-2018 12:27am

Twenty Grand wrote: »

5g has started rolling out in the US and UK. Up to 1000 times faster than 4g.

SpaceX is planning 12,000 satellites to provide total internet coverage around the world. The first batch are up already.

Regarding training, that's no problem. Sure 20 years ago there was hardly a computer in a car. Now there's hundreds and plenty of mechanics to service them. Car manufacturers will provide the training. Besides, over the air software updates will take care of most problems and auto software is much more robust than consumer goods software.

What about mountains, rural areas anywhere with poor internet at present. We all know these things change slowly. What's the point on all this expensive infrastructure to facilitate driverless vehicles when we manage perfectly fine at present without driverless vehicles.

Completely re training mechanics to fix electronic vehicles isin't going to happen either. It will be a very gradual process in phasing these vehicles in. We may get driverless elements but it will be a long time before we will see cars without a steering wheel.

Twenty Grand · 06-10-2018 12:43am

Stephen15 wrote: »

What about mountains, rural areas anywhere with poor internet at present. We all know these things change slowly. What's the point on all this expensive infrastructure to facilitate driverless vehicles when we manage perfectly fine at present without driverless vehicles.

Completely re training mechanics to fix electronic vehicles isin't going to happen either. It will be a very gradual process in phasing these vehicles in. We may get driverless elements but it will be a long time before we will see cars without a steering wheel.

Satellites aren't bothered by mountains and rural areas. 20 years ago you lost mobile phone coverage west of Longford. Right now most areas are fine for 4g, apart from a few black spots. Who knows where we'll be in another 20 years with satellite internet.

You'd train a mechanic in a few weeks in a piece of software, same as any other piece of software. Sure they're not going to be programming. Just installing updates and troubleshooting. It's a no issue. Maybe the auld lad working in the garage at the back of his house is locked out, but that's just the way it goes.

Actually I got cracked BMW software for my car. Looked at a few vids online and I have full control over my car, updates, diagnostics, enable features. It was easy.

orangerhyme · 06-10-2018 12:47am

Stephen15 wrote: »

Heard a driverless vehicle needs internet coverage in order to work properly. How the hell is that supposed to in areas without decent internet coverage. Anyone who thinks this is going to become the norm in the next 20 years is living in dream land. Also how the hell is your average mechanic supposed to fix one of these driverless vehicles.

How are we going to get enough people trained up to be able to fix these driverless vehicles in next 20 years. It seems people are getting so caught up in in the fact that the technology is coming without looking at the simple practicalities.

Theres very few mechanics in Ireland trained on EVs yet they are about to grow exponentially. People get trained and learn to adapt as always.
I think driverless electric fleets of taxis will exist in cities within 5 years. Certainly in the states, perhaps not Dublin.
The marginal cost of running these will be so low theyll be as cheap as a bus.

Stephen15 · 06-10-2018 1:02am

orangerhyme wrote: »

Theres very few mechanics in Ireland trained on EVs yet they are about to grow exponentially. People get trained and learn to adapt as always.
I think driverless electric fleets of taxis will exist in cities within 5 years. Certainly in the states, perhaps not Dublin.
The marginal cost of running these will be so low theyll be as cheap as a bus.

Are driverless vehicles not a completely different kettle of fish to standard vehicles?

I hope there won't anymore taxis on the roads. There is too many of them as there is. The city centre is bad enough as it is.

Twenty Grand · 06-10-2018 1:05am

Stephen15 wrote: »

Are driverless vehicles not a completely different kettle of fish to standard vehicles?.

Nope. It's a car with a computer and a heap of sensors.
No different to any new car today that has a computer and a heap of sensors.

orangerhyme · 06-10-2018 2:50am

Stephen15 wrote: »

Are driverless vehicles not a completely different kettle of fish to standard vehicles?

I hope there won't anymore taxis on the roads. There is too many of them as there is. The city centre is bad enough as it is.

They wont be able to compete with the driverless taxis so it will probably reduce the number of taxis.

mdebets · 06-10-2018 8:57am

dense wrote: »

Why are you trying to introduce conspiracy theories?

It's clear you're mistaking me for one of the conspirators here who are trying to advance their fake theory that the leading advocates of robotic vehicles are NOT calling for driving to be banned.

Maybe you should be directing your conspiracy theory ire at them?

You don't need to ban driving, people will autmatically want to stop to drive, as soon as autonomous vehicles are available in large enough numbers.
The majority of private trips in cars today is done to commute to and from work. Do you really think all these peoples like to sit two hours or even more in traffic jams, not being able to do anything else than stare at the road and move your arms and legs now and then? No, they do it, because it's necessary, to get to work if your public transport is not available for you or you don't like to sit next to smelly people on the bus or train. With autonomous vehicles, these hours commuting are not lost, but you could do other work, or reading, watching TV or sleeping, just like on public transport, just with more flexibility and without the smelly strangers.
That all combined with the other plus points of autonomous driving, like being let out directly at your destination without having to look for a parking space, which will be largely reduced, because an autonomous vehicles need far less space or could even drive home if you stay at a place for a longer time. Add to this that you get probably dedicated lanes for autonomous vehicles which allow you to move faster, much smaller safety gaps, no idiot sleeping at a green traffic light or blocking a junction.
And that's just without the most likely move to a car-sharing model, which would add lower costs to driving.
Everyone still wanting to drive with under these conditions would really be an idiot, so no banning of driving would be necessary.

dense · 06-10-2018 9:05am

Twenty Grand wrote: »

Nope. It's a car with a computer and a heap of sensors.
No different to any new car today that has a computer and a heap of sensors.

Really?

A load of electronics and sensors that nobody except the main dealer can service or repair, and even then, not always with great success.

Except the autonomous car will have to correctly and reliably generate and analyse 4tb of data an hour.

https://newsroom.intel.com/editorials/self-driving-cars-big-meaning-behind-one-number-4-terabytes/

So again I think you're over simplifying things and are once more being blinded by the PR.

Have a look round the net for stories about main dealers having no clue about how to fix conventional cars spewing out fault codes.

Then consider the future fun that will ensue with them trying to repair autonomous vehicles.

Couple that with the possibility that independent garages will no longer exist after being locked out of the market due to data privacy concerns and you're into potential monopoly cartel territory regarding any possible repairs on your autonomous vehicle.

https://qz.com/1054261/the-connected-car-of-the-future-could-kill-off-the-local-auto-repair-shop/

Twenty Grand · 06-10-2018 9:34am

If things are so bad then where's theres the public outcry or push to "dumb down" cars?
Wheres the movement to save independent garages?
It's the exact opposite in fact. People want more technology, more bells and whistles and more features so driving is less of a chore.

I'm not gonna bother replying any more. I've no problem with people asking questions, but posters constantly trying to poke holes in a technology that doesn't even exist yet, and not bothering to even educate themselves to a basic level of understanding is tiresome to reply to.

Time will tell in the end.

magicbastarder · 06-10-2018 10:20am

mdebets wrote: »

The majority of private trips in cars today is done to commute to and from work. Do you really think all these peoples like to sit two hours or even more in traffic jams, not being able to do anything else than stare at the road and move your arms and legs now and then?

+1
i have three options for getting to work - PT, driving, or cycling. it's been fifteen years since i last did it in the car, i'd go bananas having to do that daily. PT was great for a few reasons - for the reasons outlined that autonomous cars will also benefit from; i was reading a book a week, and even getting a little bit of shuteye from time to time.

markodaly · 06-10-2018 10:24am

Autonomous cars will be pretty much all be EV's which are from an engineering point of view much much simpler to build and maintain that today's ICE.

The last few pages make interesting reading as those you are skeptical seems to be clutching at straws as to the why this new tech won't catch on.

dense · 06-10-2018 11:37am

Twenty Grand wrote: »

If things are so bad then where's theres the public outcry or push to "dumb down" cars?
Wheres the movement to save independent garages?
It's the exact opposite in fact. People want more technology, more bells and whistles and more features so driving is less of a chore.

I doubt you even drive!

And if you do, you seem to be terribly trusting of car sales people, a profession that is known for having issues with being economical with trust in car sales professionals constantly ranking at the bottom of opinion polls:

https://www.google.ie/search?q=least+trusted+professions+car+sales&oq=least+trusted+professions+car+sales&aqs=heirloom-srp..

Cars are becoming more and more complicated to fix and there's no sign of motorists being delighted about that:

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/why-modern-cars-are-getting-more-expensive-fix

If you do drive (which I doubt) and you have a blown headlight bulb, are you telling me you'd bring it in to a main dealer to have replaced?

(You might have to soon enough)

An oil change? Brake pads?

I don't mean to be raining on your parade but I'm just trying to bring a bit of real world balance to the utopian future you've been promised.

dense · 06-10-2018 11:54am

markodaly wrote: »

Autonomous cars will be pretty much all be EV's which are from an engineering point of view much much simpler to build and maintain that today's ICE.

The last few pages make interesting reading as those you are skeptical seems to be clutching at straws as to the why this new tech won't catch on.

They will still require maintenance and servicing, steering and suspension components are not changing.

Specialist servicing is required and you know when a specialist is mentioned that costs are going to be reflected in their special prices.

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/motoring/motoring-news/electric-cars-mechanics-with-no-specialist-training-risk-death-when-tinkering-with-the-vehicles-a6816786.html

Buttons, switches, motors, batteries etc are all components that are liable to need replacing at some point.

What you are taking away is the power train but what you are substituting it with is expensive and complicated technology which is just as liable to break down, and with possibly worse and more expensive consequences in terms of safety and cost of repair/replacement.

Look at how we treat everything from dishwashers to TVs nowadays, there is a throwaway culture where it costs less to replace than repair faulty items.

Electronic cars could have components treated the very same way.

markodaly · 06-10-2018 2:52pm

dense wrote: »

Buttons, switches, motors, batteries etc are all components that are liable to need replacing at some point.

What motor needs to be replaced in an EV. Methinks you're full of **** personally you have no idea what you are talking about.

What you are taking away is the powertrain but what you are substituting it with is expensive and complicated technology which is just as liable to break down, and with possibly worse and more expensive consequences in terms of safety and cost of repair/replacement.

Eh, no just no.

Twenty Grand · 06-10-2018 4:01pm

markodaly wrote: »

What motor needs to be replaced in an EV. Methinks you're full of **** personally you have no idea what you are talking about.

Eh, no just no.

Have a look at the Nissan Leaf maintenance book.

The ONLY thing you routinely have to change for the first 8 years is the tyres, brake fluid, pollen filter and the battery in the key fob. Everything else, brake pads, suspension etc etc is only when it needs changing, which may be never.

Personally Id say tyres are the only thing I'd routinely change. The rest I'd leave until I have an issue.

dense · 06-10-2018 4:48pm

markodaly wrote: »

What motor needs to be replaced in an EV.

As you dont seem to know, the same ones that are in any other car should the go faulty.

Unless the EV doesn't have E windows, E steering, E wipers, E air conditioning, E central locking or E mirrors??

Do you not understand that the average car whether it's electric or ICE has quite a few E motors that can and do fail?

dense · 06-10-2018 5:03pm

markodaly wrote: »

Eh, no just no.

A comms system failure in an autonomous vehicle will affect every other vehicle it is connected to. How are other autonomous vehicles to decide how to treat an autonomous vehicle which has broken down?

dense · 06-10-2018 5:10pm

Twenty Grand wrote: »

Personally Id say tyres are the only thing I'd routinely change. The rest I'd leave until I have an issue.

I'm beginning to think that

a. you've never had a car and,
b. you don't drive.

Am I right??

Have a look at the wearable suspension components:

https://www.carid.com/nissan-leaf-suspension-parts/

Doubt you'll get 8 years from too many of them unless you don't intend using it much.
Spare parts are made for a reason, parts do wear.

06-10-2018 5:34pm

Dense, you are scrapping the bottom there looking for things to find wrong.

Sure there will be some things that are better and some that are worse but none of the items you have listed over the last 5-6 pages, would be classed as a viable reason to stop the development and introduction of this tech.

Your posts remind me of a conversation I once had with an Occupy protester.

magicbastarder · 06-10-2018 5:53pm

would be interesting to see if autonomous driving systems are heavier or easier on some parts than a human would be (regardless of whether the vehicle is EV or ICE). i.e. would it have a lighter foot, and be easier on brakes and tyres?

orangerhyme · 06-10-2018 9:11pm

magicbastarder wrote: »

would be interesting to see if autonomous driving systems are heavier or easier on some parts than a human would be (regardless of whether the vehicle is EV or ICE). i.e. would it have a lighter foot, and be easier on brakes and tyres?

One thing to consider is that they'll be driving much more so would wear out quicker in year terms.
Normal cars spend 95% of the time parked but driverless taxis would be on the go constantly

dense · 06-10-2018 9:17pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Dense, you are scrapping the bottom there looking for things to find wrong.

Sure there will be some things that are better and some that are worse but none of the items you have listed over the last 5-6 pages, would be classed as a viable reason to stop the development and introduction of this tech.

Your posts remind me of a conversation I once had with an Occupy protester.

I'm not suggesting the development should be stopped, but I am sceptical of the time frame being mentioned for their introduction and also of the rationale behind the need to have them in the first place.

That's not to say I don't envisage a world where you can order a vehicle to turn up outside your door to whisk you to where you want and then it can continue on to do more pick ups.
I just don't envisage it in my lifetime.

As for the more simplified nearer term autonomous vehicle scenario, I don't see a market for ownership of them. For all their whinging, I think the vast majority of drivers still want to be able to drive, to have some feeling of independence, to be in control.

I'm not sure they're going to be able to have it both ways and thats why I suggested that banning driving in the name of road safety and saving lives will be the next hobby horse of the occupy types we both have no time for who like to control the lives of others, if the technology can be proven.

magicbastarder · 07-10-2018 12:10am

orangerhyme wrote: »

One thing to consider is that they'll be driving much more so would wear out quicker in year terms.
Normal cars spend 95% of the time parked but driverless taxis would be on the go constantly

that's still based on the idea that autonomous cars would be communal cars.
but per km driven, the question doesn't change. apart from the fact that the heating/cooling cycle of a car in sporadic use may do more damage per km, averaged out, than a car in constant use would face.

markodaly · 07-10-2018 12:59am

dense wrote: »

As you dont seem to know, the same ones that are in any other car should the go faulty.

Unless the EV doesn't have E windows, E steering, E wipers, E air conditioning, E central locking or E mirrors?? [

Again, what motor exactly needs to be replaced/maintained in an EV?

Do you not understand that the average car whether it's electric or ICE has quite a few E motors that can and do fail?

I understand that both an ICE and an EV have a crossover of components e.g. electric windows, but you don't understand that an EV is a vastly more simple product than a typical ICE because the drive train itself is vastly more simple.

An EV drivetrain will only have a handful of moving parts, while an ICE may have hundreds if not thousands.

You're bemoaning the fact that EV cars are more 'complicated' due to the fact that they have electrical components found in all ICE cars anyway.

You couldn't even make this stuff up.

Perhaps we should all drive Model T's?

markodaly · 07-10-2018 1:02am

dense wrote: »

A comms system failure in an autonomous vehicle will affect every other vehicle it is connected to.

Do you have some evidence for this? I guess not.

How are other autonomous vehicles to decide how to treat an autonomous vehicle which has broken down?

Em, just like any other stationary object it may encounter on the road?

markodaly · 07-10-2018 1:08am

Honda and GM Cruise announce a $750 million deal.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/10/gms-self-driving-deal-with-honda-is-a-wakeup-call-for-waymo/

Honda announced on Wednesday that it has agreed to invest $750 million in Cruise, GM's self-driving car company. On top of that, Honda plans to spend $2 billion over the next 12 years developing a fully self-driving car based on Cruise technology. It's a big vote of confidence for Cruise and a blow to Cruise's biggest rival, Waymo, which is owned by Google's parent company, Alphabet.

They want to narrow the lead Waymo has at the moment. As I said before, the next 24 months will see significant progress in this field. We will see how far we have come and what the main remaining hurdles are.

dense · 07-10-2018 1:58am

markodaly wrote: »

Do you have some evidence for this? I guess not.

Wrong guess.

These vehicles would be in constant communication with each other about their activity. If a car perceived an obstacle on the road, it would communicate the evasive action it intends to take to all other vehicles, giving them time to respond appropriately. Even the slightest break in communications could cause disaster.

https://news.virginia.edu/content/driverless-cars-communications-failures-could-be-disastrous

dense · 07-10-2018 4:16am

markodaly wrote: »

Honda and GM Cruise announce a $750 million deal.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/10/gms-self-driving-deal-with-honda-is-a-wakeup-call-for-waymo/

They want to narrow the lead Waymo has at the moment.

As I said before, the next 24 months will see significant progress in this field. We will see how far we have come and what the main remaining hurdles are.

Calm down, Honda is talking about it taking 12 years from your own link:

Honda announced on Wednesday that it has agreed to invest $750 million in Cruise, GM's self-driving car company. On top of that, Honda plans to spend $2 billion over the next 12 years developing a fully self-driving car based on Cruise technology.

Seems like a waste seeing as nobody except the manufacturers seem to want self driving cars.

https://grist.org/living/no-one-wants-driverless-cars-but-people-who-make-driverless-cars/

Researchers found that only 15.5 percent of respondents would be interested in an autonomous vehicle.

dense · 07-10-2018 9:49am

Twenty Grand wrote: »

What are you talking about? Tesla model 3 is nearly the best selling sedan in the US, definitely the best electric and best luxury car, and they're hitting their stride making it now.

You are hoplessly deluded.

Here is a list of the Top 20 car sales by rank as at mid August.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/best-selling-sedans-in-america-in-2018-2018-8?r=US&IR=T/#19-mazda3-35796-101-2

No sign of Tesla.

Here is the top sales list as of September

https://focus2move.com/usa-best-selling-cars/

No sign of Tesla.

You've been reading too much Teslaspin, the gist of which is explained here, hint, it's got to do with moving goalposts.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/tesla-model-3-market-share-claims-are-flawed-2018-6?r=US&IR=T

Maybe Elon has some special sales charts that say it's the best selling car in the US with just a 2% market share?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/519579/market-share-of-tesla-in-the-united-states/

Self driving buses, trains, trucks etc

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