Autumn 2018 - General discussion

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

This month's looking like a repeat of November 2009.

I’d settle for a very wet November if it meant a settled December with increasingly colder weather like late December 2009 into Jan 2010

MJohnston wrote: »

That doesn't really have an effect on whether it will flood or not. An extreme amount of rain could still cause a completely dry river to flood - once it reaches a point where discharge rate isn't fast enough to shift the incoming volume downstream.

Well hard to see flooding on the scale of 2009 is what I meant

November 2009 would not be one anyone would want repeated. Here is some aerial footage of the Shannon floods taken on December 3rd that year. Not the best quality but the photos at the end are better.

https://youtu.be/3JGZEiwkmgc

Bucketing down here this morning and most of the night, ah how i miss those clear sunny mornings - days from last week

Read a probably bull**** article predicting Big wind on Friday. I'm flying in from Portugal in the early evening and my OH is landing from USA an hour or two later. She doesn't have keys to my place. Anyone with an eye for models (not me) able to assess the chances of either or both our flights being cancelled. (with a particular note for her USA flight being okay, and my flight being cancelled as worst case scenario)

errlloyd wrote: »

Read a probably bull**** article predicting Big wind on Friday. I'm flying in from Portugal in the early evening and my OH is landing from USA an hour or two later. She doesn't have keys to my place. Anyone with an eye for models (not me) able to assess the chances of either or both our flights being cancelled. (with a particular note for her USA flight being okay, and my flight being cancelled as worst case scenario)

Presuming you're talking about Dublin Airport, disruption seems likeliest between 3pm and 6pm. How much is uncertain at this stage.

Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Dublin, Carlow, Kildare, Kilkenny, Louth, Wexford, Wicklow, Galway, Mayo, Cork, Kerry, Tipperary and Waterford

Heavy rain will lead to accumulations of around 25 to 40mm but may exceed these limits in mountainous areas.

Issued: Thursday 08 November 2018 10:00

Updated: Thursday 08 November 2018 10:00

Valid from Friday 09 November 2018 06:00 to Friday 09 November 2018 18:00

Meteorologist commentary:

Information to follow was included by Meteorologist Liz Walsh on Wednesday 7th November

It’s been a rather unsettled week of weather so far with spells of wet and windy weather. Excess water has occurred on the roads at times, with spot flooding compounded by autumn leaves blocking drains.

Our weather will remain unsettled through the rest of this week, and Met Éireann forecasters have been monitoring developments for this Friday 9th November particularly closely. There are a number of low pressure systems or depressions dotted around the North Atlantic at present, but the one we are particularly interested in is an area of low pressure over Newfoundland in Canada which is expected to move out into the Labrador Sea tonight, Wednesday night.

This low pressure system will travel eastwards across the Atlantic by Friday, helped by a strong jet stream which will serve to deepen the low significantly by the time it comes close to our shores. The (by then) deep low will travel northwards to the west of Ireland during Friday, and the associated fronts will track in over Ireland during Friday morning and afternoon bringing strong winds and heavy rain and there is potential for severe and damaging gusts, especially on coasts. There is also a risk of coastal damage due to wave overtopping, with the timing of the strongest winds coinciding with high tide on some coasts.

We’ll be closely monitoring forecast data from our 54-hour high resolution model, HARMONIE over the next 12 to 24 hours with further updates to follow.

See the first hourly wind and rain projections for Friday morning 9th Nov from HARMONIE below:

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Munster and Connacht

Southeasterly winds will reach mean speeds of 50 to 65km/h with gusts of 90 to 110km/hr. Gusts will exceed these values in exposed coastal areas and on higher ground, especially in the southwest.

Issued: Thursday 08 November 2018 11:00
Updated: Thursday 08 November 2018 11:00
Valid from Friday 09 November 2018 04:00 to Friday 09 November 2018 15:00

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan and Donegal

Southeasterly winds will reach mean speeds of 50 to 65km/h with gusts of 90 to 110km/hr. Gusts will exceed these values in exposed coastal areas and on higher ground, especially in the southeast.
Issued: Thursday 08 November 2018 11:00
Updated: Thursday 08 November 2018 11:00