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Winter 2019/2020 - General Discussion

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  • Registered Users Posts: 932 ✭✭✭snowstorm445


    My hunch is that at most we will get a cold outbreak similar to 2018 this year (not as severe in intensity but hopefully not so late in the season). Other than that, I can’t see it being that remarkable other than maybe being slightly less mild than last year.

    To be honest, the fact that we refer to winters like last year as “exceptionally mild” is a bit optimistic. These winters, sadly, have become the norm over the past decade or so. If every year sees exceptionally mild weather you would be begin to think that it is no longer exceptional. They are definitely mild compared to long term averages but not in terms of recent history.

    Other than that I have a sneaking suspicion we will see a lot of storms this autumn/early winter. Some of which might produce cold zonality/wet snow scenarios, so maybe the north, west and southwest could do well there!


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,366 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    An early cold incursion in to the Canadian far north and down in to Hudson Bay.

    ECH0-96.GIF?27-0


  • Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    If it is of interest. we have a grass frost out here this morning.. west mayo offshore ,,, nippy out here too but very clear and sunny


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,472 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    I have yet to fully formulate my thoughts on this winter. I think for the whole solar minimum correlation to show its hand then either this winter or next has to be notably cold. Perhaps if we are lucky then 2020 will mimic 2010 with both the very cold start and end. The science/theory are not this exacting at all though.

    As an aside, It will be interesting to see if certain volcanic eruptions around the world trigger a very wet autumn as history might suggest.
    If you're looking specifically for us to be notably cold in winter based on solar minimum, not sure you will find great success. The whole solar activity theory is based on blocking and -NAO. This summer has been notably -NAO with unprecedented amplitude which one could say is to do with low solar activity but then again, what happened in 2012 between two solar maximum peaks (late 2011 and early 2014)? Was the 2019 -NAO feedback from the final warming in April following a record strong Polar Vortex in February/March?

    Did an analysis of "solar minimum winters" using the Central England Temperature for last winter's updates, refer to the table below. The blue highlighted ones are the coldest winter of that solar minimum period. See how it's not always clear cut that we get cold winters. Solar Cycle 7 ended in 1833 and was the cycle that ended the Dalton Minimum era. Winter 1832-33 was slightly colder than 2017-18 overall as a comparison in terms of the CET whilst 1833-34 was exceptionally mild (third mildest on record behind 1868-69 and 2015-16) and 1834-35 quite mild. Another example (these not being the only examples though as you will find from the table below) being Solar Cycle 10 going into 11 where there was no cold winter in terms of the CET during the minimum period, coldest was 1867-68 with 4.5c (before that extreme mild winter of 1868-69 I just mentioned). All dependable on where the blocking sits, can get some severe cold seasons like 1917, 1947, 1963, 1979 or 2010 but you can also get very mild seasons like 1834 and 1869.

    JNNw25G.png

    Data from UK Met Office.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,484 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    It's more so just after the minimum that we should have a greater chance of a cold winter.so perhaps winter 20/21.
    This winter in terms of solar minimum is about where we were at in 2008. Of course that doesnt mean we will get a winter like 2008/9 but if we got a winter like that I wouldn't mind.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    I'm always pessimistic about the winter season in Ireland. After all anything better than a dusting (+2cm) is an event for most of us on this island (unless you live on higher ground). Recently I've been trawling through youtube vids of the 2010 event and I've kind of reached the conclusion that it was a once in a lifetime event (ok maybe twice in a lifetime). Having said that the solar minimum does comfort me a bit, if we are lucky we should see a significant event in Europe within the next few years.


  • Registered Users Posts: 599 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    2010 repeat as the SSTs are about the same.

    Time will tell:D:D:D:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,472 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    2010 repeat as the SSTs are about the same.

    Time will tell:D:D:D:D

    Not really. The tripole in 2010 was very much anomalous. In May this year, the tropical Atlantic was close to average and much of North Atlantic was cold bar south of Greenland. Right now, the North Atlantic is warmer than average generally with a cooler area to west of Iberia. The east US SSTs are well above average which does not bode well for a tripole.


  • Registered Users Posts: 599 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Not really. The tripole in 2010 was very much anomalous. In May this year, the tropical Atlantic was close to average and much of North Atlantic was cold bar south of Greenland. Right now, the North Atlantic is warmer than average generally with a cooler area to west of Iberia. The east US SSTs are well above average which does not bode well for a tripole.

    Its still a Tripole though Atm. We just need HP settling way out west and south to pull in them North easterlies...….:D This is the Best Thread we ever had and its Still August.....


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,472 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Its still a Tripole though Atm. We just need HP settling way out west and south to pull in them North easterlies...….:D This is the Best Thread we ever had and its Still August.....

    Just don’t set yourself up for disappointment. Last year really killed it for me.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,092 ✭✭✭pad199207


    I will look forward to the rarity that is an Air frost this winter.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,484 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Just don’t set yourself up for disappointment. Last year really killed it for me.

    And me. I would be very cautious about this winter. But surely it should be better then last winter.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,674 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Billcarson wrote: »
    And me. I would be very cautious about this winter. But surely it should be better then last winter.

    I'm expecting nothing special this winter, just more of the same typical Irish winter. We get about 1 proper snow event every 10 years, so we are not overdue another one till 2027.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,796 ✭✭✭Calibos


    Why is everyone harking back to 2010. No love for Feb/March 2018??

    I mean, personally I have no love for it because while some of you were buried under feet of the white stuff I just had a 2cm layer of slush melting as fast as Storm Emma could drop it thanks to her blowing in natures anti-feeze in off the sea along with the snow. Yeah, I could have walked a mile inland but if I don't have at least 6 inches of the stuff on my literal doorstep, I am bitterly disappointed.:D :D

    I would have thought 2018 was the ideal for most Snow lovers. Knee deep in the stuff for a week or so with time off work/school, enough to go for walks in Winter wonderlands and build huge snowmen and igloo's with the kids, and for the grown ups, ample opportunity to do a bit o' looting etc...........but no month long disruption like 2010.

    Is 2010 getting all the love in this thread because as a meteorological event it was more interesting to weather enthusiasts whereas the short sharp shocks of 2018 were more interesting to the snow lovers?


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,472 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Calibos wrote: »
    Why is everyone harking back to 2010. No love for Feb/March 2018??

    I mean, personally I have no love for it because while some of you were buried under feet of the white stuff I just had a 2cm layer of slush melting as fast as Storm Emma could drop it thanks to her blowing in natures anti-feeze in off the sea along with the snow. Yeah, I could have walked a mile inland but if I don't have at least 6 inches of the stuff on my literal doorstep, I am bitterly disappointed.:D :D

    I would have thought 2018 was the ideal for most Snow lovers. Knee deep in the stuff for a week or so with time off work/school, enough to go for walks in Winter wonderlands and build huge snowmen and igloo's with the kids, and for the grown ups, ample opportunity to do a bit o' looting etc...........but no month long disruption like 2010.

    Is 2010 getting all the love in this thread because as a meteorological event it was more interesting to weather enthusiasts whereas the short sharp shocks of 2018 were more interesting to the snow lovers?
    For me, 2010 was perfect timing (short days, long cold nights). 2018 was far too late as my mood was turning to summer by that point. I still rate it highly though.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,674 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    For me, 2010 was perfect timing (short days, long cold nights). 2018 was far too late as my mood was turning to summer by that point. I still rate it highly though.

    2018 was great, but I much preferred 2010 for the same reasons. I'm not expecting much this winter, but it would be tough to top last winter for blandness and mild/warm temperatures. It wouldn't take much to be cooler and more interesting than last winter.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    Calibos wrote: »
    Why is everyone harking back to 2010. No love for Feb/March 2018??

    I mean, personally I have no love for it because while some of you were buried under feet of the white stuff I just had a 2cm layer of slush melting as fast as Storm Emma could drop it thanks to her blowing in natures anti-feeze in off the sea along with the snow. Yeah, I could have walked a mile inland but if I don't have at least 6 inches of the stuff on my literal doorstep, I am bitterly disappointed.:D :D

    I would have thought 2018 was the ideal for most Snow lovers. Knee deep in the stuff for a week or so with time off work/school, enough to go for walks in Winter wonderlands and build huge snowmen and igloo's with the kids, and for the grown ups, ample opportunity to do a bit o' looting etc...........but no month long disruption like 2010.

    Is 2010 getting all the love in this thread because as a meteorological event it was more interesting to weather enthusiasts whereas the short sharp shocks of 2018 were more interesting to the snow lovers?


    2010 all the way, no comparison in my opinion. Feb/March 2018 was brutal with constant E gales, very hard to enjoy. Managed to accumulate about 17cm in the garden (25cm drifts) from the storm here, but totals would have been much higher had it not been for intermittent thawing and sea spray (I'm close enough to the sea). Don't get me wrong it was an incredible event similar to the storms of 1982 and 1962 but tbh quite hard to enjoy.



    2010 was incredible for its duration and intense convection. On either the 20th or the 21st if I remember correctly there was some of the heaviest snow I've ever seen with 15cm falling in the space of 2-3 hours. Also, most of the snow fell in close to calm conditions (very often a NW land breeze) making it a very different and in my opinion more enjoyable event to the 2018 storm.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,666 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    2018 was way better for us down here in Cork City in my opinion of course everybody differs (if my memory serves me!). 2010 we had only a small amount of snow, sure it was sunny and definitely colder (pipes even froze) but the snow and icicles and everything of 2018 just made it for me. 2010 was defintiely a longer cold snap, but i loved the 2018 snow :) Was amazing


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,027 ✭✭✭MidMan25


    Much prefer proper cold weather to lots of snow so 2010 for me!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    Hard to say which was better 2010 or 2018.

    2010 for the long cold nights and decent snow. When it snowed it stayed and didn't start melting immediately after it snowed.

    2018 and the perfect snow storm. I live in Naas and was hit particular hard. Being trapped in the house as the snow blocked the doors and me climbing out a window to clear the snow. Walls disappeared under the snow it was amazing to experience. Pity I couldn't enjoy it more as I was studying and missed most of the spectacle.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,126 ✭✭✭screamer


    Winter in Ireland
    Starting out wet and windy as autumn moves into Winter. Continuing mild enough with a few days of heavy rain and the usual named storms that amount to nothing much. Hopes building like kids on Christmas Eve for a snowy Christmas Day, won’t happen but we might have some early morning frost. Christmas to new year pretty bland with one or two stormy days and a couple of starry nights and frosty mornings. Into Jan and things get cooler couple of snowy days here and there, but turning milder then. One day of full on get the sled out of the shed snow, and that’s it feb gradually gets milder with some frosty night and returning to showery springtime. It’s done for another year.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    December 2010 was my preferred event for the reasons mentioned already. I do also enjoy the deep cold as well as heavy snow, it just feels more natural. I think the short days and long nights with it being the run up to Christmas were what made it special. 2018 was special too but in a different way.

    I remember that night of the 20th or 21st mentioned with a huge dumping topping it all up in the space of a few hours in the late afternoon/evening. Very heavy and consistent snow with nothing marginal about it whatsoever...We will probably not see a December like that again any time soon.

    I too am cautious about this winter after the disappointment of last, anything would be better than last - I wouldn't say no to an 08/09 style winter. Will have to have a deeper look into the solar stuff when I have more time over the weekend thanks @Syranbruen


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Looking at the Arctic temp profile for this August, and temps, north of 80, have been the highest (for August) since 2007. Open to being corrected but I think the last 'Solar cycle' was more or less at the same stage back then as it is now? Whether this is all connected I don't know, but while I don't remember how the winter of 2007/2008 turned out, I do remember with horror the Autumn of 2007 in that it was similar in many ways to last winter. High pressure to the near south always close by with the odd weak front bringing much dampness but little in the way of any significant weather or rainfall and with frosty nights an unknown.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,472 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Looking at the Arctic temp profile for this August, and temps, north of 80, have been the highest (for August) since 2007. Open to being corrected but I think the last 'Solar cycle' was more or less at the same stage back then as it is now? Whether this is all connected I don't know, but while I don't remember how the winter of 2007/2008 turned out, I do remember with horror the Autumn of 2007 in that it was similar in many ways to last winter. High pressure to the near south always close by with the odd weak front bringing much dampness but little in the way of any significant weather or rainfall and with frosty nights an unknown.
    Winter 2007-08 was very mild and wet, January among wettest on record. December had a settled spell mid-month that was quite prolonged. January opened with an easterly outbreak which brought snow to the northeast but this was temporary. February was a west-east split although mid-month tended to be settled for many. March and April were close to average for temperatures but featured quite cold snaps with snowfalls in both months. Most recent April snow I can recall here.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    Seeing Lough Corrib completely frozen over in 2010 absolutely blew my mind.
    I witnessed a farmer walking on to an island about 300m from shore to tend to his cattle. He tied a load of empty 5l water drums just in case. Mad stuff.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,480 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    Who knows what kind of winter we will get this year...every other country is almost guaranteed hot weather in summer and cold weather in winter...here in ireland you never know what to expect...each year can be very different


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,674 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Hooter23 wrote: »
    Who knows what kind of winter we will get this year...every other country is almost guaranteed hot weather in summer and cold weather in winter...here in ireland you never know what to expect...each year can be very different

    it's usually a fairly safe bet that we can expect a mild, wet winter and cool to mild, wet summer most years. 2018 was an exception with a cold and snowy end to winter and start to Spring, and then a very warm to hot summer.

    This year has been much more average, however Winter 2019 was very mild to warm but this summer has been a fairly typical Irish summer with half the summer cool and wet and the other half warm and dryish.

    As for Winter 2019/2020, I'm expecting nothing too exciting other than a fairly typical Irish winter, but probably not quite as warm as last winter.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,484 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    The mountains near Longyearbyen are snow capped. Quite unusual for this time of year.

    https://www.webcams.travel/webcam/fullscreen/1182187370

    ^^^^(post from Aug 22nd)


    A covering of snow there now since yesterday.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,674 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    cooler temperatures already starting across northern Europe. Last night was sub zero in parts of Norway and Sweden, so a proper frost in some of those areas.

    It's already turned much cooler today here in Ireland, and the next few nights could see night time temperatures getting down to 4 or 5C if skies clear.
    We are only 4 days into September and already it seems like Autumn is in full swing.


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  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 24,641 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    Gonzo wrote: »
    cooler temperatures already starting across northern Europe. Last night was sub zero in parts of Norway and Sweden, so a proper frost in some of those areas.

    It's already turned much cooler today here in Ireland, and the next few nights could see night time temperatures getting down to 4 or 5C if skies clear.
    We are only 4 days into September and already it seems like Autumn is in full swing.

    That's funny we just had the conversation in work about how much colder last night was. Definitely some change in the air alright, hopefully we can get a few frosty nights/mornings this Winter, and not a Mild Christmas again.


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