December 2020 Boards weather forecast contest

Table of forecasts December 2020


FORECASTER _____ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ 25th Dub A, snow 24-25


Gonzo ___________ 5.9 _ 14.1 _ -4.8 _ 096 _ 102 __ 12.4, 5.3, No

MrSkinner ________ 5.9 _ 13.9 _ -4.9 _ 079 _ 089 ___ 9.9, 0.9, nein(no)

Tae laidir _________5.9 _ 13.9 _ -4.4 _ 115 _ 105 __ 11.2, 7.3, No

Eon1208 _________5.9 _ 13.4 _ -5.8 _ 096 _ 094 ___ 8.2, -2.1, Yes, Ballyhaise

Joe Public ________ 5.9 _ 12.9 _ -7.9 _ 083 _ 110 ___ 4.4, -2.5, Yes, Knock

Appledrop ________ 5.8 _ 14.2 _ -4.0 _ 105 _ 080__ 11.2, 2.5, No

Pauldry __________ 5.7 _ 14.4 _ -4.7 _ 120 _ 089 __ 10.0, 4.1, No

Bsal _____________5.6 _ 14.0 _ -5.0 _ 102 _ 097 ___ 8.5, 2.1, No

Sunflower3 _______ 5.6 _ 13.9 _ -4.5 _ 085 _ 090 ___ 9.5, 1.5, No

Rikand ___________5.5 _ 15.0 _ -6.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 8.0, -2.0, yes, knock

john mac _________5.5 _ 14.7 _ -4.6 _ 102 _ 105 ___ 9.1, 1.8, yes, knock

dasa29 __________ 5.5 _ 14.0 _ -6.0 _ 105 _ 105 ___ 6.5, -3.5, No

sryanbruen _______ 5.5 _ 13.9 _ -4.2 _ 080 _ 105 __ 11.1, 4.8, No

Adam240610 _____ 5.4 _ 15.5 _ -6.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 8.0, 2.0, no


___ NormaL ______ 5.4 _ 15.5 _ -6.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 8.0, 2.0, no


DOCARCH ________ 5.3 _ 15.1 _ -4.2 _ 095 _ 106 ___ 4.8, -0.5, Yes, Knock


___ Con Sensus ___ 5.3 _ 14.1 _ -5.0 _ 097 _ 105 ___ 8.0, 0.4, tied number yes,no


Funsterdelux _(-2) _ 5.2 _ 15.9 _ -4.7 _ 093 _ 099 ___ 7.0, -1.0, no

SleetAndSnow -10) _5.2 _ 14.1 _ -4.4 _ 085 _ 110 _ 11.5, 4.8, Yes, Knock

Dacogawa ________5.1 _ 14.3 _ -5.7 _ 118 _ 092 ___ 6.0, -2.4, Yes, Casement

Bazlers __________ 5.1 _ 14.1 _ -6.4 _ 115 _ 120 ___ 3.5, -2.8, yes, Casement

sdanseo _________ 5.1 _ 14.0 _ -6.2 _ 099 _ 114 ___ 6.8, -0.1, Yes, Knock

Artane2002 ______ 5.1 _ 13.8 _ -4.4 _ 100 _ 095 __ 10.2, 3.8, No

Tazio __ (-2) _____ 5.1 _ 11.1 _ -3.2 _ 085 _ 101 ___ 9.5, 2.2, No

WesternStorm ____ 5.0 _ 14.6 _ -5.0 _ 095 _ 095 ___ 6.8, -0.5, no

mickger844posts __ 5.0 _ 14.1 _ -4.0 _ 090 _ 105 __ 10.1, 2.8, No

waterways _______ 5.0 _ 13.5 _ -6.1 _ 103 _ 097 ___ 9.0, 2.7, yes, Knock

M.T. Cranium _____ 4.9 _ 14.8 _ -6.7 _ 125 _ 110 ___ 3.7, -2.5, yes, Casement

Danno _ (-12) ____ 4.9 _ 14.4 _ -5.3 _ 090 _ 135 ___ 5.1, -5.2, yes, Ballyhaise

Mr Stonewall ______4.9 _ 14.3 _ -5.4 _ 091 _ 098 ___ 5.2, -1.1, yes, Knock

Jpmarn __________ 4.8 _ 14.8 _ -5.5 _ 110_ 105 ___ 7.5, -1.5, Yes, Knock

BLIZZARD7_ (-2) __ 3.0 _ 12.8 _-11.5_ 090 _ 130 ___-0.5, -7.5, Yes, Casement

____________________________________________________

30 forecasts so far, will add in any later ones, gave our two recent late entrants a bit of a break
on the total points deducted since they aren't in contention for this year's awards,

for the snowfall question, 15 said no, 15 said yes (Knock 8, Casement 4, Ballyhaise 1);


consensus looks very close to average, with one forecaster throwing in the towel and taking

average altogether (and why not you might ask) ...

Welcome to our new or occasional forecasters, good luck -- November scoring in progress, awaiting confirmation later from MS.

Well there's no problem in missing this last month, here's what your scoring lines are going to be for the best 10/12

taking the lines from the last update and blanking out the score, unfortunately 200motels you already missed one month and will draw on your lowest score of 43, while Kindred Spirit will be adding second lowest 48 to the existing total.

Currently


08_(11)_ Kindred Spirit_____ 61 _63 _71 _71 _60 _53 _37 _53 _48 _55 _74 __ 646 ____ 561 (07t) (12t)


17_(15)_200motels ________47 _--- _75 _61 _60 _65 _60 _43 _64 _65 _52 __ 592 ____ 549 (11t) (07)


will end up

??_(08)_ Kindred Spirit_____ 61 _63 _71 _71 _60 _53 _37 _53 _48 _55 _74 _ --- _ 646 ____ 609 (??) (07t)


??_(17)_200motels ________47 _--- _75 _61 _60 _65 _60 _43 _64 _65 _52 _ --- _ 592 ____ 592 (??) (11t)

At this point,

others in the contest are guaranteed to go up from previous total by their second lowest score (in most cases) so what they actually go up will be the surplus of December over that score. For example, I have mick's score handy since I block copied the small part of the table between your lines, and in his case, second lowest score is 50, so his best 10/12 will be at least 550 + 50 = 600, and if he scores more than 50 in December, then it will go up by that much instead. But if he scores less he will add the 50.

currently

07_(08)_ mickger844posts __ 55 _63 _60 _48 _74 _59 _54 _53 _50 _70 _62 __ 648 ____ 550 (10) (11)

will become

yada yada 648+DEC ______ 550 + 50 or Dec whichever higher

... with the late penalties now in play, you can't beat your reserve scores anyway, I think we're past -50 now.

My apologies for not contacting you soon after deadline, I only noticed who had not checked in late yesterday and figured it was too late for a solution.

Checked out the mins on 4th, about the same as 3rd, but meanwhile -3 at Dunsany 0700h today.

A rather cold start to the month and only limited warming shown on model runs, could be running IMT values around 4 to 5 for quite a while.

Too late to edit the table of forecasts but this line

for the snowfall question, 15 said no, 15 said yes (Knock 8, Casement 4, Ballyhaise 1);

should read

for the snowfall question, 15 said no, 15 said yes (Knock 9, Casement 4, Ballyhaise 2).

If a moderator can make that change then you could also delete this post. (it makes no difference to the contest scoring anyway).

After three weeks ...

IMT on 5.7, the third week average was 7.1 which was 1.6 above normal. Some downward pressure on IMT the rest of the way, projected finish around 5.0.

MAX 14.2, MIN -4.8 -- MAX more likely than MIN to survive the coming roller coaster ride.

PRC now 124% of normal with the week at 146%. That's enough to guarantee an outcome of at least 82%, with half normal amounts from today to end of month the requirement to get to an outcome of 100%. That's about what is actually expected, perhaps a touch more to land near 103-105 per cent.

SUN has edged up again to 107.6% with this past week 109.7% (658/600). That may hold or slip back slightly, once again would say 103-105 looks good (hard to say how much sun might get through the maritime flow stratus layers in the colder spell, this could conceivably rise too).

The Dublin forecast is now looking like about max 7, min -2 might work, and there's some chance for the "yes" half of the field mainly with localized snow showers on the 24th qualifying. Will have to be at a weather station though, not a photo of a distant hilltop.

So how's all that looking for your scoring potential? I will check the forecasts and edit in where I see the highest scoring at this early juncture.

If there's no change to MAX and MIN, some high scores will fall into the bottom third of the table (where the colder IMT forecasts are located, as long as IMT and MIN aren't too extreme), also john mac a bit higher on IMT is looking good on most portions. Some (like myself) need a lower MIN to complete a good score. With the overall scoring quite a close contest, there may be a chaotic finish.