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Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,280 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 12 November, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 12 to 18 Nov 2019

    -- Temperatures will be 2 to 3 deg below normal values.
    -- Rainfall will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal values for most, closer to average though in south Leinster.
    -- Sunshine will be 25 to 50 per cent above normal values, although this won't be too evident until the weekend.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will bring partly cloudy skies to most regions but persistent and locally heavy rain now over east Ulster will drift a bit further south into north Leinster before fragmenting to showers later. Otherwise just a few isolated showers and some places will have a dry day. Staying rather cold with highs 5 to 9 C.

    TONIGHT will be clear at first with local frost, then increasing cloud will remove some of that frost but watch out for black ice on some rural roads in the early morning hours. Rain may approach the west coast towards morning. Lows 1 to 4 C.

    WEDNESDAY will become overcast with outbreaks of rain, rather light for most of the day, then heavier by afternoon, with sleet developing on higher terrain and snow on summits. Rather cold with temperatures peaking at 6 to 8 C before dropping back slightly as rain becomes heavier. Winds somewhat variable until an easterly flow develops by afternoon spreading north to south as low pressure re-establishes a new centre off the south Leinster coast. Overnight rain or sleet will continue with moderate northeast winds, and 10-20 mm rain may accumulate by Thursday morning.

    THURSDAY will see the rain or sleet becoming more banded and fed by streamers forming over the Irish Sea and the north Atlantic north of Connacht. These bands will become rather persistent and some areas will get some heavy and possibly mixed falls of rain, sleet and wet snow. Other areas will be drier and may get some brighter intervals. South Leinster and western Mayo will be two areas most likely to see the heavier precipitation. Cold and windy, morning lows 2 to 4 C and afternoon highs 5 to 8 C. Winds northeast 50 to 80 km/hr.

    FRIDAY will become brighter and more settled, but quite cold. A few remnant streamers will likely continue but they will become rather weak and isolated near the coast. Sleet or snow showers could result especially on higher parts of the Wicklow hills. Morning lows 0 to 2 C and afternoon highs only 4 to 7 C. Winds will be less blustery and will fall off to near calm by evening. This combined with some clearing will lead to a sharp frost on Friday night that will set in early.

    SATURDAY morning will have a sharp frost with morning lows -5 to -2 C. Some sunshine early in the day followed by cloud and outbreaks of mixed rain, sleet and wet snow. Staying very cold for mid-November, highs only 3 to 7 C.

    SUNDAY will become largely dry again with isolated wintry showers and cold temperatures between -2 C and 5 C.

    The outlook for next week looks rather unsettled and while it may stay colder than average, the temperatures will likely come up somewhat towards 7 or 8 C for typical highs, and there will be less frosty conditions overnight.

    My local weather continues to be remarkably dry for November, if rather cloudy as usual, and temperatures near normal for here (5 C).


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,280 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 13 November, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 13 to 19 Nov 2019

    -- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal values (which at the present time would be around 11 C daytime and 4 C overnight).
    -- Rainfall will average near normal values, possibly a bit above in south Leinster.
    -- Sunshine will average near normal values to 25% above normal in parts of the south and west.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be overcast with outbreaks of light rain turning somewhat heavier in the afternoon, and temperatures steady or slowly falling in the range of 6 to 8 C. Higher elevations especially in south Leinster and parts of Connacht could see slushy accumulations of wet snow or sleet. Winds rather light and variable for most of the day, but becoming northeast 40 to 60 km/hr across the north late this afternoon, and northerly in parts of west Munster.

    TONIGHT rain or sleet will continue and the northeast to north winds will spread over most other regions, adding a chill to temperatures around 2 or 3 C. Total rainfalls will reach 20-25 mm in some parts.

    THURSDAY the rain will begin to concentrate into bands running northeast-southwest across parts of Leinster and north-west Connacht, west Ulster. Some other regions will become mostly dry with some sunny breaks developing. Winds will continue rather strong northeast to north at about 50 to 80 km/hr. Highs will only reach 5 to 7 C. Some of the precipitation will become mixed with thunder possible as well.

    FRIDAY will become mostly sunny with the stronger winds abating especially by afternoon and evening. Showers will become more isolated although more likely to be wintry where they do occur. Morning lows about -1 to +2 C and afternoon highs 5 to 7 C. Friday evening will become frosty soon after dark and roads could become icy in some rural areas overnight.

    SATURDAY will start out with a sharp frost and morning lows -5 to -2 C. Increasing higher cloud will dim the early sunshine then some sleety rain could develop in some western counties. Highs only 3 to 7 C.

    SUNDAY will bring variable amounts of cloud and showers, some mixed on higher ground. Lows near 1 C and highs near 7 C.

    The outlook for next week is unsettled with the risk of some rather persistent and heavy rainfalls developing. It may turn a few degrees milder and closer to seasonal averages.

    My local weather brought a small covering of wet snow in the morning, perhaps 2-3 cm mixed with a bit of drizzle, and it was rather foggy with low cloud ceilings. Temperatures were about 2 or 3 C most of the day. The rain snow line dropped down to about 700 metres so lower parts of the local valleys had light rain instead of the snow. Meanwhile it has turned very cold in eastern Canada and the northeast U.S., Midwest states and plains states with some record low temperatures reported.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,280 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 14 November, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 14 to 20 November 2019

    -- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal values.
    -- Rainfall will average about half of normal amounts, although it may be fairly frequent in small amounts. Central counties could run as low as 25% of normal with some coastal fringes closer to normal, guidance shows several heavy falls over nearby ocean areas so any inaccuracy in that modelling could bring some of those heavier amounts onto land.
    -- Sunshine will average near normal to as much as 50 per cent above normal values in some parts. Variations will be due to rather weak weather systems spreading patchy cloud across various portions of the country, no real trends appear.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be quite windy and cold with generally dry conditions except for some isolated bands of mixed precipitation hitting parts of the southeast and Connacht, west Ulster and a few parts of west Munster. Winds will be northerly 40 to 70 km/hr adding considerable chill to the already cold temperatures in the 5 to 8 C range.

    TONIGHT will become less windy and skies will vary from partly cloudy to clear at times, with patchy frost likely, lows -2 to +3 C. Still a few isolated remnants of the earlier bands of showers may be encountered in parts of Wicklow, Wexford, Mayo and Donegal mostly.

    FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with fairly generous amounts of sunshine and with lighter winds it may feel considerably warmer than today although temperatures will be in a similar range with highs 6 to 9 C. A sharp frost is likely to develop by evening lasting well beyond sunrise on Saturday. Overnight lows Friday night will be -5 to -2 C in many areas and near 1 C in more protected coastal and urban locations.

    SATURDAY will bring cloudy skies into western counties after a sharp to severe frost in most areas of the country away from the southwest coast. It will remain partly cloudy further east. Some light rain is likely to spread into coastal areas of the west but is not expected to become too widespread. Highs 7 to 10 C.

    SUNDAY will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of light rain, some sleety accumulations again on higher terrain, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 7 to 9 near sea level and 4 to 6 C higher up.

    NEXT WEEK in general looks unsettled with outbreaks of rain, the main thrust of the moisture is further east across the Irish Sea, western England and Wales, but any change to that could bring heavier amounts into some parts of Leinster and east Ulster. It will be slightly milder than the current regime but by no means a mild spell by November standards, highs may be closer to normal values at about 9 to 11 C. Frost will still be possible with any brief clearing at night but there will likely be enough cloud around to keep most nights frost-free in most places.

    My local weather on Wednesday remained cloudy but no new precipitation occurred despite some mist caused by the gradual thawing of yesterday's light snowfall which is now only evident in a few spots, looking very much like winter is about to set in with 90% of the leaves down from deciduous trees (we have a 50-50 mixture of deciduous and coniferous, but one variety, the tamarack, retains its leaves and changes colour in autumn to golden yellow, can't decide which family to join apparently). This is a ski resort area but the local mountains have only a very thin snow cover mostly the remnants of what fell in a freak event six weeks ago. Toronto airport has had more snow than the local ski hill which must be a first for modern times. (in a normal winter season a snow cover of 1 to 2 metres is normal in the local higher terrain and 50 to 75 cms in town, so we're told). This is probably why you might be getting your forecasts from Arizona at some point around January. I like to see heavy snowfalls and then say so long farewell, perhaps return to watch them melt away in late March.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,280 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 15 November, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland


    TRENDS for the week of 14 to 20 November 2019

    -- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal values.
    -- Rainfall will average about half of normal amounts, although it may be fairly frequent in small amounts. Central counties could run as low as 25% of normal with some coastal fringes closer to normal, guidance shows several heavy falls over nearby ocean areas so any inaccuracy in that modelling could bring some of those heavier amounts onto land.
    -- Sunshine will average near normal to as much as 50 per cent above normal values in some parts. Variations will be due to rather weak weather systems spreading patchy cloud across various portions of the country, no real trends appear.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be partly cloudy to sunny for most, with fairly generous amounts of sunshine and with lighter winds it may feel a bit warmer than yesterday although temperatures will be in a similar range with highs 6 to 9 C. A sharp frost is likely to develop by evening. A few streamers will continue to appear near both the southeast and northwest coastal fringes, if they extend on to land they will bring mixed forms of precipitation depending mostly on elevation, with hail and thunder being possible in any more robust showers, but this is likely to be isolated to just a few locations. The northerly winds will continue to moderate after some gusty intervals this morning and the wind directions will become more variable later in the day.

    TONIGHT will feature some clear and frosty conditions, with locally icy road conditions possible especially where untreated in rural areas, and the frost will probably be rather slow to clear on Saturday morning, after lows of -5 to -1 C for most. Just a few coastal and urban areas may escape seeing any frost or sub-freezing air temperatures.

    SATURDAY will bring cloudy skies into western counties after a sharp to severe frost in most areas of the country away from the southwest coast. It will remain partly cloudy further east. Some light rain is likely to spread into coastal areas of the west but is not expected to become too widespread. Highs 7 to 10 C.

    SUNDAY will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of light rain, some sleety accumulations again on higher terrain, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 7 to 9 near sea level and 4 to 6 C higher up.

    NEXT WEEK in general looks unsettled with outbreaks of rain, the main thrust of the moisture is further east across the Irish Sea, western England and Wales, but any change to that could bring heavier amounts into some parts of Leinster and east Ulster. It will be slightly milder than the current regime but by no means a mild spell by November standards, highs may be closer to normal values at about 9 to 11 C. Frost will still be possible with any brief clearing at night but there will likely be enough cloud around to keep most nights frost-free in most places.

    My local weather on Thursday was overcast with some sun getting through the layers at times, and it was around 6 C with light winds, so not too wintry feeling yet although the local hills show extensive frost on the trees just above our elevation and that seemed to persist in the rather moist conditions with misty low cloud over most of the hills to our south and west. It's worth noting that Toronto (even downtown) broke records for cold in the past few days including one from 1873, and that despite the urban heat island that has grown considerably over that elapsed time (from zero to perhaps 2.5 to 3 C deg in its impact on cold temperatures) so nowadays the city observing site breaks very few old records for cold. The last time that it broke two consecutive ones would be back in January 1994 which was a brutally cold month there. (the record value was -11 C for the 13th). Some may wonder, if it's that cold in eastern North America, won't that doom any chances of blocking or cold weather in Europe? Not necessarily, there seem to be two different patterns that can develop, one is for the jet stream to get very activated by the cold from North America giving way to a mild southwest flow, but another configuration is a generally depressed jet with weak mid-oceanic ridge development allowing both continents to get cold at the same time. Might be a bit of both outcomes in the long run. I have noticed in my research a strong tendency for record warmth to occur at similar times although I could point to a few counter-examples in either direction. When it turned very mild in December 2015, eastern North America was also setting warm records.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,280 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 16 November, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 16 to 22 Nov 2019

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal but there will be a gradual upward trend after mid-week.
    -- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal, but with persistent light rain later in the period it may seem like a higher amount.
    -- Sunshine will average near normal, but will have to do well in the first half of the interval to achieve that, as it will become quite cloudy later.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY the scattered frost and some fog or mist will all be rather slow to clear where they have developed, would suggest caution in any long distance travel as you may encounter a few areas of slippery road conditions and poor visibility. However, other places will be frost free and cloud will be mainly at higher levels, so expect a mixture of conditions, with light winds not much to mix the atmosphere and get anything very organized, but the trends will be towards more cloud in the west in particular and perhaps a few outbreaks of light sleety rain, which could mix with wet snow on some higher parts of Connacht and Ulster. Conditions will remain dry in parts of the south and east. Temperatures will be rather variable with a few spots remaining quite cold all day (3 to 6 C) and other places warming up a bit to 8 or 9 C.

    TONIGHT there will be further outbreaks of light rain or sleet, becoming rather showery before it dissipates later in the night. With some clearing possible, pockets of frost may redevelop. Lows -1 to +3 C.

    SUNDAY there will be a mixture of cloud and filtered sunshine through higher cloud layers, and a few isolated showers. Highs around 7 to 9 C with generally light northwesterly winds developing.

    MONDAY morning will have another fairly sharp frost with some fog and mist around lower parts of the central counties, and the day will generally be dry but cloudy with temperatures around 7 or 8 C at best. Some rain will develop by the overnight hours into Tuesday morning, about 5 to 10 mm is expected, with lows by Tuesday morning near 3 C.

    TUESDAY will see rain tapering to showers then a partial clearing, not much change in temperature likely, lows near 3 C and highs near 7 C.

    The outlook for the second half of the week is rather unsettled but rain may be more persistent than heavy, with rather weak weather systems promoting a light to moderate easterly flow most of the time, but not much warmth being imported from any direction so that temperatures are likely to get stuck in the 6 to 9 C range.

    My local weather started out with a wet snowfall of about 3 or 4 cms that changed over to a misty rain as somewhat warmer air is moving into our region from the Pacific. The freezing level has probably risen to about 1500 meters since being close to us this morning. Ground temperatures have responded by rising to about 4 or 5 C and it's quite foggy with a slight drizzle.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,280 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 17 November, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 17 to 23 November, 2019

    -- Temperatures will average about 1 deg below normal, with a gradually increasing trend.
    -- Rainfalls will average near normal but the southeast could see 25 to 50 per cent above normal with slightly below normal likely in the west and the north.
    -- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy and sometimes rather misty, with patchy light rain or drizzle moving through parts of Ulster towards the midlands and north Leinster. Other areas should be largely dry. Rather cold but with relatively light northwest winds, it should be tolerable, with highs 6 to 9 C.

    TONIGHT will see some breaks developing in the cloud and a return to frost and locally dense fog patches with isolated risks of black ice in some parts of the midlands, inland north. Lows -3 to +2 C.

    MONDAY will have variable cloud cover, light winds at first becoming moderate southeast later, with rain arriving on the west coast by evening. Highs will be 5 to 8 C east, central and north, 7 to 10 C south and west coasts.

    TUESDAY will bring a few outbreaks of light rain and moderate southeast breezes, 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows 3 to 5 C and highs 8 to 10 C. About 5 to 10 mm rain.

    WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will continue unsettled with rainfalls of 10 to 30 mm, heavier in the southeast than elsewhere. Winds will continue southeast at about 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows will be 4 to 7 C and highs 8 to 10 C.

    The further outlook is for somewhat milder but unsettled weather with occasional strong winds and outbreaks of heavier rain possible, temperatures could briefly be above normal by about Monday 25th reaching 12 to 14 C in parts of the south early that week, but this will come with the risk of strong southwest winds developing.

    My local weather was damp for the morning hours then a wet snow began, trying to keep going despite rising freezing levels, so that it's basically melting as it falls now, with the temperature stuck at about +2 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,280 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 18 November, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of November 18 to 24 2019

    -- Temperatures will average close to normal values with a cold start but a milder finish to the week balancing out.
    -- Rainfall will generally be in the range of 75 per cent of normal to near normal values but the coastal southeast could have as much as 150% of normal values, with heavy falls expected mid-week.
    -- Sunshine will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY, watch for black ice and patchy freezing fog in many parts of central Ireland to about ten o'clock before it completely dissipates. Some coastal fringes could have a brighter start but cloud is spreading in over top of the shallow fog layers and once those disappear the day may remain cloudy with glimpses of the sun, but with very light winds for most of the day, fog or mist may continue to come and go in some places. Highs will depend on how much the air mixes locally and could be anywhere from about 3 C inland north and central, to 10 C near the west coast and probably about 7 C in Dublin and Cork.

    TONIGHT there will be some light rain moving in rather gradually to bring 5-10 mm to parts of Munster and Connacht. It may stay dry until almost daybreak in Leinster and Ulster. Lows 2 to 5 C.

    TUESDAY the patchy rain will continue to push further east with 2 to 5 mm for the eastern regions, but partial clearing will develop further west for a time before heavier rain reaches the southwest late in the day. Highs around 8 C.

    WEDNESDAY some heavier rain is likely and it may turn very heavy over parts of Wicklow and Wexford with 30 to 50 mm potential there. Other parts of the country are more likely to see 15 to 25 mm at most. Moderate southeast winds will develop, lows near 4 C and highs in the 8 to 10 C range.

    THURSDAY some of the remnants of the heavy rain may push through central counties but without as much intensity, then becoming showery later in the day, a further 10 mm of rain is possible with highs reaching about 10 C.

    FRIDAY there will be some remnant showers in a slow partial clearing trend, light winds and highs once again close to 10 C.

    SATURDAY could provide a break from rainfall for part of the day with highs near 11 C but a vigorous frontal system is expected by Saturday night with strong southerly winds and rain, lasting into part of Sunday, when it will begin to clear by afternoon, once again near 11 C.

    The outlook for next week is generally unsettled, milder and rather windy at times with some outbreaks of heavy rainfall likely, highs often in the range of 10 to 13 C.

    My local weather on Sunday turned mild enough to thaw most of the lying snowfall and that created dense fog with temperatures near 5 C. A bit of light rain was falling at times. We are into a much milder weather pattern now and that looks like breaking through into eastern regions fairly readily after the current (Atlantic) ocean storm moves into Nova Scotia in a couple of days. By next week it looks like a non-stop roller coaster ride of strong lows moving from Pacific to Atlantic and over to Europe reminding me a bit of December 2015. Hope that won't last too long but it is somewhat consistent with the long range outlook.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,280 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 18 November, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of November 18 to 24 2019

    -- Temperatures will average close to normal values with a cold start but a milder finish to the week balancing out.
    -- Rainfall will generally be in the range of 75 per cent of normal to near normal values but the coastal southeast could have as much as 150% of normal values, with heavy falls expected mid-week.
    -- Sunshine will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY, watch for black ice and patchy freezing fog in many parts of central Ireland to about ten o'clock before it completely dissipates. Some coastal fringes could have a brighter start but cloud is spreading in over top of the shallow fog layers and once those disappear the day may remain cloudy with glimpses of the sun, but with very light winds for most of the day, fog or mist may continue to come and go in some places. Highs will depend on how much the air mixes locally and could be anywhere from about 3 C inland north and central, to 10 C near the west coast and probably about 7 C in Dublin and Cork.

    TONIGHT there will be some light rain moving in rather gradually to bring 5-10 mm to parts of Munster and Connacht. It may stay dry until almost daybreak in Leinster and Ulster. Lows 2 to 5 C.

    TUESDAY the patchy rain will continue to push further east with 2 to 5 mm for the eastern regions, but partial clearing will develop further west for a time before heavier rain reaches the southwest late in the day. Highs around 8 C.

    WEDNESDAY some heavier rain is likely and it may turn very heavy over parts of Wicklow and Wexford with 30 to 50 mm potential there. Other parts of the country are more likely to see 15 to 25 mm at most. Moderate southeast winds will develop, lows near 4 C and highs in the 8 to 10 C range.

    THURSDAY some of the remnants of the heavy rain may push through central counties but without as much intensity, then becoming showery later in the day, a further 10 mm of rain is possible with highs reaching about 10 C.

    FRIDAY there will be some remnant showers in a slow partial clearing trend, light winds and highs once again close to 10 C.

    SATURDAY could provide a break from rainfall for part of the day with highs near 11 C but a vigorous frontal system is expected by Saturday night with strong southerly winds and rain, lasting into part of Sunday, when it will begin to clear by afternoon, once again near 11 C.

    The outlook for next week is generally unsettled, milder and rather windy at times with some outbreaks of heavy rainfall likely, highs often in the range of 10 to 13 C.

    My local weather on Sunday turned mild enough to thaw most of the lying snowfall and that created dense fog with temperatures near 5 C. A bit of light rain was falling at times. We are into a much milder weather pattern now and that looks like breaking through into eastern regions fairly readily after the current (Atlantic) ocean storm moves into Nova Scotia in a couple of days. By next week it looks like a non-stop roller coaster ride of strong lows moving from Pacific to Atlantic and over to Europe reminding me a bit of December 2015. Hope that won't last too long but it is somewhat consistent with the long range outlook.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,280 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 19 November, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 19 to 25 November 2019

    -- Temperatures will average about 1 to 2 deg above normal.
    -- Rainfall will be near normal in most areas but as much as twice normal in the southeast. Heavy rain is expected there within 36 hours.
    -- Sunshine will be relatively close to normal but not spread out evenly by days, one or two days will have more sunshine and at this time of year that can bring totals up to normal as the average is only two hours a day.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY there will be a little light rain spreading through eastern counties with clearing skies already moving into parts of west Munster. This clearing trend will continue to follow the rain and bring some sunny breaks with moderate southerly winds at times. Highs 10 to 12 C.

    TONIGHT cloud will increase followed by outbreaks of rain spreading in from the west. Moderate southeast winds, lows 4 to 7 C.

    WEDNESDAY will see some heavier intervals of rain across the south, heaviest around Wexford, Carlow and south Wicklow where 20-40 mm could fall. Other areas will see closer to 10-20 mm. Mild and breezy, winds southeast 40 to 60 km/hr, with highs 11 to 13 C.

    THURSDAY the heavier rain may continue but will tend to lose some intensity as it spreads further north into central counties. Some further accumulations of 15 to 30 mm are possible. Parts of the west may have a few breaks from the cloud and rain. Winds turning more to the east and continued moderate (40 to 60 km/hr). Lows 5 to 8 C and highs 11 to 13 C.

    FRIDAY should see the rain fragmenting more to showers with some breaks in the cloud, and it will stay fairly mild near 10 C. There may be a renewed interval of rain in the southeast as another heavy rain event develops but this one is headed mainly for southern Wales and western England.

    SATURDAY could provide a break between weather systems although there could be a few isolated showers around, probably some longer sunny intervals than most days after today, and highs around 10 C.

    SUNDAY will become breezy to windy with rain at times and highs near 11 C.

    The outlook for next week is for mild, windy and at times wet weather with a succession of fairly strong Atlantic frontal systems driven along by a strong southwesterly flow aloft. This may mean a return to unusually mild and at times stormy conditions although there should be breaks between the more unsettled intervals. Highs may get into the 12 to 14 C range in the south, the storm track is close enough to Ulster that there might be some potential for sharp temperature contrasts although not quite producing rain-snow boundaries, more like mild rain and cold rain boundaries.

    My local weather has turned misty and drizzly again, highs of about 5 C, with some chance of it turning to snow overnight before it all moves away to help form a strong low over the U.S. plains states mid-week. That will pump up some milder air headed for the east coast and Great Lakes regions which have been running quite cold for about two weeks now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,280 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 20 November, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 19 to 25 November 2019

    -- Temperatures will average about 1 to 2 deg above normal.
    -- Rainfall will be near normal in most areas but as much as twice normal in the southeast. Heavy rain is expected there today and tomorrow, and again around Monday-Tuesday.
    -- Sunshine will now be about 75% of normal (yesterday I said near normal but yesterday was one of the days expected to bring that amount and in most places that was the case, so now we just have perhaps one opportunity to log any substantial number of hours, looking like Sunday in some parts, otherwise it will remain overcast much of the time).

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will bring some heavier intervals of rain across the south, heaviest around Wexford, Carlow, Waterford, Kilkenny, south Laois and south Wicklow where 20-40 mm could fall. Other areas will see closer to 10-20 mm. Mild and breezy, winds southeast 40 to 60 km/hr, with highs 11 to 13 C. The heavier rain is likely to develop later in the day so not too bad for the morning hours.

    TONIGHT will continue wet and mild with rainfalls approaching totals of 50 mm in some parts of the southeast with flooding possible in poorly drained areas. Other parts of the country will have intermittent lighter rainfalls of about 5 to 15 mm. Winds southeast 30 to 50 km/hr and some dense fog developing in central counties. Lows 6 to 9 C.

    THURSDAY the heavier rain may continue but will tend to lose some intensity as it spreads further north into central counties. Some further accumulations of 15 to 30 mm are possible. Parts of the west may have a few breaks from the cloud and rain. Winds turning more to the east and continued moderate (40 to 60 km/hr). Lows 5 to 8 C and highs 11 to 13 C.

    FRIDAY should see the rain fragmenting more to showers with some breaks in the cloud, and it will stay fairly mild near 10 C. There may be a renewed interval of rain in the southeast as another heavy rain event develops but this one is headed mainly for southern Wales and western England.

    For SATURDAY the outlook has changed as the progression of weather systems has slowed down and this means the dry slot between the current complex and the next set due in later Sunday will occur on Saturday night. During the day on Saturday, mostly cloudy with some residual outbreaks of light rain or drizzle in the east mainly, rather cold as morning fog may be slow to lift in some areas, although reasonably mild near some coasts. Lows about -1 to +2 C and highs 4 to 8 C for most, 10 C near some coasts.

    SUNDAY will have a clearing trend in the early morning that could lead to frosts and lows -2 to +3 C. Then variable cloud will follow in the daytime with an increase in southerly winds and rain arriving by afternoon in the west, evening across eastern counties. Highs 9 to 11 C.

    MONDAY will be windy with intervals of rain or showers, some heavy falls are possible in the south again. Highs 8 to 12 C (milder in the south).

    TUESDAY may see a secondary wave forming to bring a renewed outbreak of rain and strong winds in the south coastal counties. Highs once again 8 to 12 C (milder in the south).

    The outlook is for this renewed Atlantic regime to continue and perhaps lock in for a while. I am expecting something like December 2015 or perhaps December 2013 which was somewhat stormier and just about as mild. This may lead to a more wintry episode by January if there's any signs of life in the Scandinavian high department. Keep in the back of your mind the outlook that it could get very unsettled around the Christmas holiday period (rain and wind rather than snow seeming the most likely type of disturbance).

    My local weather on Tuesday involved the slow departure of leftover moisture from a weak system that changed from drizzle to melting wet snow around 0400h and kept up with that on and off to early afternoon with no real accumulations here, probably a few inches at higher elevations. It cleared right around sunset. The high was near 3 C and now it has dropped to about -5 C due to the clear skies although the air mass is not particularly cold. We will probably wake up to some ice fog and a slow clearing. Heavy snow will be developing in South Dakota and spreading towards the northeast but many parts of the U.S. and eastern Canada will get a warmer spell now as that low tracks well to the north of the Great Lakes.

    The tropical season was not quite done after all, Tropical Storm Sebastien formed northeast of Puerto Rico and since the letter Q is not used that's the 18th named storm of 2019. Most of them have been weak tropical storms (or not so weak in a couple of cases) but Dorian will be the signature event of the season. Remnants of Sebastien might be incorporated into any disturbed weather in the central to eastern Atlantic in about five days' time. It is not likely to become a hurricane or if it does, just briefly a cat-1 south of Bermuda moving northeast.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,280 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 20 November, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 20 to 26 November 2019

    -- Temperatures will average about 1 to 2 deg above normal.
    -- Rainfall will be near normal in most areas but as much as twice normal in the southeast. Heavy rain is expected there today and tomorrow, and again around Monday-Tuesday.
    -- Sunshine will now be about 75% of normal (yesterday I said near normal but yesterday was one of the days expected to bring that amount and in most places that was the case, so now we just have perhaps one opportunity to log any substantial number of hours, looking like Sunday in some parts, otherwise it will remain overcast much of the time).

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will bring some heavier intervals of rain across the south, heaviest around Wexford, Carlow, Waterford, Kilkenny, south Laois and south Wicklow where 20-40 mm could fall. Other areas will see closer to 10-20 mm. Mild and breezy, winds southeast 40 to 60 km/hr, with highs 11 to 13 C. The heavier rain is likely to develop later in the day so not too bad for the morning hours.

    TONIGHT will continue wet and mild with rainfalls approaching totals of 50 mm in some parts of the southeast with flooding possible in poorly drained areas. Other parts of the country will have intermittent lighter rainfalls of about 5 to 15 mm. Winds southeast 30 to 50 km/hr and some dense fog developing in central counties. Lows 6 to 9 C.

    THURSDAY the heavier rain may continue but will tend to lose some intensity as it spreads further north into central counties. Some further accumulations of 15 to 30 mm are possible. Parts of the west may have a few breaks from the cloud and rain. Winds turning more to the east and continued moderate (40 to 60 km/hr). Lows 5 to 8 C and highs 11 to 13 C.

    FRIDAY should see the rain fragmenting more to showers with some breaks in the cloud, and it will stay fairly mild near 10 C. There may be a renewed interval of rain in the southeast as another heavy rain event develops but this one is headed mainly for southern Wales and western England.

    For SATURDAY the outlook has changed as the progression of weather systems has slowed down and this means the dry slot between the current complex and the next set due in later Sunday will occur on Saturday night. During the day on Saturday, mostly cloudy with some residual outbreaks of light rain or drizzle in the east mainly, rather cold as morning fog may be slow to lift in some areas, although reasonably mild near some coasts. Lows about -1 to +2 C and highs 4 to 8 C for most, 10 C near some coasts.

    SUNDAY will have a clearing trend in the early morning that could lead to frosts and lows -2 to +3 C. Then variable cloud will follow in the daytime with an increase in southerly winds and rain arriving by afternoon in the west, evening across eastern counties. Highs 9 to 11 C.

    MONDAY will be windy with intervals of rain or showers, some heavy falls are possible in the south again. Highs 8 to 12 C (milder in the south).

    TUESDAY may see a secondary wave forming to bring a renewed outbreak of rain and strong winds in the south coastal counties. Highs once again 8 to 12 C (milder in the south).

    The outlook is for this renewed Atlantic regime to continue and perhaps lock in for a while. I am expecting something like December 2015 or perhaps December 2013 which was somewhat stormier and just about as mild. This may lead to a more wintry episode by January if there's any signs of life in the Scandinavian high department. Keep in the back of your mind the outlook that it could get very unsettled around the Christmas holiday period (rain and wind rather than snow seeming the most likely type of disturbance).

    My local weather on Tuesday involved the slow departure of leftover moisture from a weak system that changed from drizzle to melting wet snow around 0400h and kept up with that on and off to early afternoon with no real accumulations here, probably a few inches at higher elevations. It cleared right around sunset. The high was near 3 C and now it has dropped to about -5 C due to the clear skies although the air mass is not particularly cold. We will probably wake up to some ice fog and a slow clearing. Heavy snow will be developing in South Dakota and spreading towards the northeast but many parts of the U.S. and eastern Canada will get a warmer spell now as that low tracks well to the north of the Great Lakes.

    The tropical season was not quite done after all, Tropical Storm Sebastien formed northeast of Puerto Rico and since the letter Q is not used that's the 18th named storm of 2019. Most of them have been weak tropical storms (or not so weak in a couple of cases) but Dorian will be the signature event of the season. Remnants of Sebastien might be incorporated into any disturbed weather in the central to eastern Atlantic in about five days' time. It is not likely to become a hurricane or if it does, just briefly a cat-1 south of Bermuda moving northeast.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,280 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 21 November, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 21 to 27 November 2019

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values (which would be around 9 for the maximum and 3 for the minimum.
    -- Rainfalls will average near normal in parts of the west and north, to 50-100 per cent above normal in the south and east, with a few locations possibly as high as 250% of normal around Kilkenny and Carlow.
    -- Sunshine will average about half the usual amount, which is rather low at this time of year (about 2 hours a day).

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will see renewed heavy rainfall moving gradually further north and east from current locations in Waterford, Kilkenny and eastern Cork into Tipps. Some places may get 35 to 50 mm of rain in the inland southeast with flooding risks associated. The rain will be less intense further north on the east coast and into the north midlands, with 15 to 30 mm potential, and rain will be more showery in nature further west and into parts of Connacht and Ulster with 10 to 20 mm likely there. Moderate east to southeast winds will continue at 30 to 50 km/hr, and temperatures will be in the 8 to 11 C range.

    TONIGHT the rain will likely continue to show a slow northward drift overall but will begin to lose some of its heavier intensity in general with 10 to 15 mm further amounts likely in some parts. Lows 6 to 9 C.

    FRIDAY will see the rain more confined to the eastern half of the country with showery bursts travelling northwestward into the midlands and Ulster as well. Partly cloudy with showers further west. Highs 8 to 10 C. About 15 to 25 mm rain possible in some eastern and central counties with 5 to 10 mm further west.

    SATURDAY the rain will be persistent near the east coast, sporadic further west with frequent dry intervals developing in western counties. About 10 to 15 mm rain is likely in the east. Some dense and persistent fog may develop in parts of inland Leinster and those areas may remain colder than others as a result. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

    SUNDAY there may be a brief dry slot between weather systems as the persistent lows move east into England to make way for a narrow ridge of higher pressure followed by another Atlantic low heading for west Munster by the early hours of Monday. This may mean a slight frost for Sunday morning in parts of the inland west mainly, a few sunny breaks in the morning, then cloudy by afternoon with rain likely later in the day. Morning lows -2 to +3 C and highs 7 to 10 C. By Sunday night, another heavy rain may develop across the south with 30 to 50 mm amounts possible. Coming soon after the earlier event, this may lead to renewed and possibly serious flooding concerns in the southeast.

    MONDAY will continue wet with an interval of strong winds possible near the southeast coast, and temperatures near 10 C.

    The outlook for next week is unsettled, with more disturbances due to strike from the southwest at about two-day intervals mid-week and towards the weekend (which would be 30 Nov - 1 Dec). No sign of much let up in this wet and generally mild pattern going forward into December although at times there will be considerably colder air masses close to western Europe trying to get into the mix, however it looks like most of them will be held back to the east of central England to northeast France. Those areas could see some snow at times whenever the rainfall events hit western Britain, France and Ireland.

    My local weather on Wednesday was sunny and we found it quite mild down in the valley (at least 12 degrees) although it never seemed to warm up much above freezing at home. That may be because there is snow cover in all higher areas to our west and north with bare ground evident between here and the lower parts of the Columbia valley (which are a good 500 metres lower than us). Clear and quite frosty outside now at midnight.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,280 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 22 November, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 22 to 28 November 2019

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values (which would be around 9 for the maximum and 3 for the minimum.
    -- Rainfalls will average near normal in parts of the west and north, to 25-50 per cent above normal in the south and east.
    -- Sunshine will average about half the usual amount, which is rather low at this time of year (about 2 hours a day).


    FORECASTS

    TODAY the rain will gradually weaken for a time, generally heavier amounts in the inland south where 10-20 mm additional is expected. There may be a few breaks in the overcast further north with intervals of light rain or drizzle, as easterly winds also tend to weaken slowly. Highs 8 to 10 C.

    TONIGHT there will be somewhat heavier rainfall near the east coast, extending slowly inland, and bringing 15 mm or more to some areas. Further west, partly cloudy to overcast with occasional rain. Somewhat colder than recent nights with lows about 2 to 5 C.

    SATURDAY the rain will be persistent near the east coast, sporadic further west with frequent dry intervals developing in western counties. About 10 to 15 mm rain is likely in the east. Some dense and persistent fog may develop in parts of inland Leinster and those areas may remain colder than others as a result. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 5 to 8 C. Temperatures may fall below freezing for part of the evening and midnight period before milder air moves in, frost may therefore come and go during the night with lows -1 to +3 C.

    SUNDAY there may be a brief clearing of the skies during the early morning hours although it won't persist all night even in areas where a slight frost develops, as the next system moves in rather quickly with a new batch of rain (10-20 mm expected for most areas and 20-30 mm near the southeast coast). Rain will spread in during the morning and cover most of the country before evening, lasting through the night to Monday morning when a slow clearing trend may begin. Highs on Sunday around 10 C. Some dense fog may develop late Sunday and through the night into Monday morning. ... Coming soon after the earlier event, this renewed rainfall (30 mm overnight in some areas) may lead to renewed and possibly serious flooding concerns in the southeast by Monday.

    MONDAY will continue wet at least through the morning, possibly all day in the east, with highs near 10 C.

    TUESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers and highs near 8 C.

    WEDNESDAY will see intervals of rain and rather gusty winds at times with highs near 8 C.

    The outlook has changed somewhat with a break between storms after the end of next week allowing a brief colder interval with northerly winds followed by a dry and cool few days near the start of December, if this guidance holds, but even so the milder weather seems likely to return fairly soon afterwards as the colder air departs again.

    My local weather on Thursday was partly cloudy and cool with a bit of mist at times, and highs near 4 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,280 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 23 November, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 23 to 29 Nov 2019

    -- Temperatures will average near normal to perhaps 1 deg above normal in the south and east.
    -- Rainfall will now average a little greater than normal in some parts of the south and east but variations around the country will become less pronounced, however Ulster will continue a little drier than normal.
    -- Sunshine may exceed normal values with some brighter days likely later in the period, but the first half will remain cloudy.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will see further outbreaks of rain, sometimes persistent and rather heavy in parts of Leinster, and a few showers will drift further west into Connacht and northern portions of Munster at times. Ulster will have some outbreaks of light rain too. The best chance for any brighter intervals will be in west Munster and near the south coast. Highs will reach 7 to 9 C. Rainfalls of about 10-20 mm are possible in some places.

    TONIGHT will have a brief clearing of skies allowing for patchy ground frost to develop in north Leinster, the midlands and Ulster. This will likely not survive until morning with cloud moving in rather rapidly after midnight. Rain will arrive by daybreak on the west coast. Lowest temperatures may be -1 to +3 C around midnight then rising temperatures after that.

    SUNDAY will see outbreaks of rain, some rather heavy in the south, where 10-20 mm seems likely. Highs 8 to 10 C. Winds generally not too strong as the low tracks towards the south coast and keeps its stronger wind circulation offshore.

    MONDAY there will be further rain for part of the day, with highs near 9 C, then a gradual and once again brief clearing between systems before yet another Atlantic low arrives late Monday night.

    TUESDAY is looking wet and windy from this next low which may be the strongest of the series, if it tracks into Ireland as shown in some guidance then strong winds could hit the southeast briefly, and heavy rainfalls seem possible for most southern and central counties, with highs around 8 C.

    WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy and showery with brisk westerly winds and highs near 7 C.

    THURSDAY and FRIDAY will turn somewhat colder again with more sunshine and only isolated showers, and there may be at least light frosts with lows near -2 C and highs near 6 C.

    The outlook for next weekend (30 Nov to 1 Dec) depends on the track of low pressure that may push across the southern fringes with a sleety rain-snow mix possible for a time, since the cold air will remain in place while it comes and goes on that track. There's sometimes a chance with that long-range scenario that the eventual track is further south and misses altogether allowing the cool, dry weather to continue, so that's a possibility this far in advance. Then after that episode, the flow looks like it may go more into a west to northwest cool but unsettled pattern with the likely result rather chilly temperatures, occasionally mixed precipitation types, and strong winds at times, as we get into December. That's not to say there won't be a few milder days with rain mixed in as a pattern like that often relaxes for a few days at a time.

    My local weather stayed generally dry but the morning remained foggy and some snow grains were being deposited by the fog (without any accumulation), then it cleared up and we had patches of blue sky and remnant clouds at hilltop levels, quite cold with a high of about 4 C. The truly cold air has retreated back into its source region and wherever this current air mass can mix, it warms up to near 10 C. Some valleys would remain trapped in an inversion and low cloud and freezing fog could result there.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,280 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 24 November, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 24 to 30 Nov 2019

    -- Temperatures will average within a degree of normal values.
    -- Rainfall will also likely finish close to normal for the week.
    -- Sunshine could do a bit better than average especially in the west.


    FORECASTS


    TODAY ... Some brighter intervals once the fog and mist clears, although that may take some time in Leinster and Ulster. Rain will arrive in west Munster but will make rather slow progress further east, amounts not expected to be heavy today. Highs 8 to 10 C.

    TONIGHT ... Overcast with some light rain at times, 5 to 10 mm amounts likely, lows 4 to 7 C.

    MONDAY ... Overcast with showers, then some partial clearing by afternoon in western counties. Highs 8 to 10 C.

    TUESDAY ... Rain will become heavier and spread further north, with strong east winds developing for the east coast, turning more to strong northerly winds in some western counties. About 20 mm of rain possible, lows near 4 C and highs near 9 C.

    WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, moderate westerly winds. Lows near 2 C and highs near 8 C.

    THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, colder. Lows -1 to +2 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

    OUTLOOK ... Guidance has split somewhat, colder air is coming towards Ireland and may last for several days but it's somewhat questionable how deep the cold will become at least in the south which remains close to a weak but still active storm track that could bring along further light rain or sleety mixtures around next weekend. Further north there's more chance of it staying cold and dry for a while. Eventually that cold spell will yield to milder weather for several days in the first week of December, after which it looks rather variable with a few more outbreaks of colder air at intervals of three or four days and brief milder turns between them.

    My local weather on Saturday turned to light snow which accumulated to 3 cms and made it look quite wintry although the temperature remains in the same range about 2 to 4 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,280 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 25 November, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 25 Nov to 1st Dec 2019

    -- Temperatures will average between normal values and 1.0 deg below normal, colder to the north.
    -- Rainfall will average 75 to 100 per cent of normal values, although possibly closer to 50 in the north.
    -- Sunshine will be infrequent for the first half of the weekly interval and relatively generous after that, the balance will be 25% above normal.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will have scattered showers but no heavy accumulations are expected with 2 to 7 mm on average, heavier amounts towards the north of Connacht and west Ulster. Some brighter intervals are likely to develop across the south with highs reaching 11 C.

    TONIGHT will become overcast with outbreaks of rain developing in parts of west Munster. Lows 2 to 6 C.

    TUESDAY the remnants of Tropical Storm Sebastien will arrive in west Munster, spreading moderate rain across much of the country in several bands, 15 to 25 mm likely. Some locally strong southeast winds gusting to 100 km/hr are possible but the circulation is quite small in scale and these might only affect various parts of the south coast for several hours at a time. More widespread moderate southeast winds of 50 to 80 km/hr are expected over most regions. Highs 8 to 11 C (12 to 14 C possible in southwest).

    WEDNESDAY by early morning the meandering remnant low will be passing the southeast coast en route to southern England and rain will begin to taper off to showers, then further intervals of cloud and partly cloudy skies with passing showers for the daytime with moderate westerly winds at times. Lows near 4 C and highs near 9 C.

    THURSDAY will also be partly cloudy with a few showers and winds turning gradually to the northwest, lows near 3 C and highs near 8 C.

    FRIDAY will become sunny and colder in most areas, with a few weak bands of mixed showers forming in a brisk northerly flow. Lows near -1 C and highs around 6 C.

    SATURDAY the south coast may be brushed by a disturbance tracking east off the coast, with some sleety light rain possible and a coating of snow on some hills inland. The rest of the country will likely escape this precipitation and remain cold and bright if rather cloudy from higher cloud layers extending northwards. This will trend to sunny skies in parts of the north. Lows -2 to +2 C and highs near 6 C.

    SUNDAY the cold and dry weather will continue and may turn a few degrees colder especially over the inland north, with lows of -4 to -1 C and highs of 4 to 7 C expected.

    By Monday of the following week (2 Dec) milder air will be pushing in from the west with a band of light rain or drizzle moving through northern counties possibly preceded by sleet or wet snow. It will then turn considerably milder for several days with highs above 10 C for much of the week. Once that milder sector has come and gone, a variable rather windy and unsettled pattern will follow with frequent wet intervals, occasional strong wind gusts and temperatures oscillating either side of normal values (which by then are near 8 C daytime and near 2 C at night).

    My local weather on Sunday was partly sunny despite occasional mist, and cold with the Saturday snow not melting much, and highs close to the freezing mark.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,280 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 26 November, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 26 Nov to 2 Dec 2019

    -- Temperatures will average near normal in the south to 1.0 deg below normal in the north.
    -- Rainfall will average near normal in the south, to only 25 per cent of normal in the north.
    -- Sunshine will average about 25% above normal but that will mostly happen between Friday and Sunday.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will see bands of moderate rainfall through south-central counties spreading some distance further north, with much less rain expected in the far north. The south coast will get into a partly cloudy, showery regime by later this morning and with some breaks in the overcast temperatures could reach 12 C there, otherwise highs 9 to 11 C. Rainfalls of about 20-30 mm are possible, heaviest amounts will come later today in south Wexford but there could be pockets of locally heavy rainfall anywhere in the southern half of the country as the remnants of TS Sebastien circle around before the system drifts off to the east tonight. Winds southeast to east 50 to 80 km/hr with the chance of some isolated and brief gusty intervals to about 100 km/hr, most likely in parts of the south.

    TONIGHT will bring further outbreaks of light rain across parts of the south and scattered showers further north, with the winds diminishing and turning northerly for a time at 30 to 50 km/hr. Lows 4 to 7 C.

    WEDNESDAY will be cloudy with a few breaks and there will be a few showers, only 3 to 7 mm expected, and moderate northwest winds at times, highs 8 to 10 C.

    THURSDAY will also be partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers, lows near 2 C and highs 7 to 9 C.

    FRIDAY will become more sunny than cloudy in most areas, and a bit colder with morning lows -1 to +2 C and highs 6 to 8 C.

    SATURDAY will bring light rain to some areas near the south coast and a sleety mix of rain and snow over hills in the south. Further north it will be dry with high cloud layers from the southern disturbance, trending to sunny skies in parts of Ulster. Lows -2 to +2 C and highs about 5 C in most areas.

    SUNDAY will be sunny and quite cold with sharp morning frosts, lows -5 to -2 C and afternoon highs near 5 C.

    MONDAY will bring variable cloud and the chance of some brief drizzle or light rain as warm fronts pass through the north, otherwise dry and turning considerably milder with afternoon temperatures reaching 10 or 11 C.

    NEXT WEEK will then continue rather mild with highs 10 to 13 C, nights will be mostly frost free and there may be some rain in the mix by about Thursday. It will be breezy at times becoming windy by Thursday and Friday. Colder for a time around the end of next week into the weekend of the 7th-8th December, before a more variable regime sets in towards mid-December.

    My local weather on Monday was partly to mostly cloudy but dry with highs around 2 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,280 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 27 November, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 27 Nov to 3 Dec 2019

    -- Temperatures will average near normal in the south to 1.0 deg below normal in the north. The interval will end with milder temperatures after turning quite cold this weekend.
    -- Rainfall will average about 50% of normal in the south, to only 25 per cent of normal in the north.
    -- Sunshine will average about 25% to 50% above normal but that will be concentrated on the weekend, however it looks like at least normal amounts of sunshine even on the cloudier days before and after that too.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be cloudy with a few breaks more frequent in central counties, and there will be a few showers, but amounts of only 2 to 5 mm expected, with moderate northwest winds at times, highs 8 to 10 C.

    TONIGHT will remain partly to mostly cloudy with a few light showers, and lows around 2 C.

    THURSDAY will also be partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers, lows near 2 C and highs 7 to 9 C. Winds will continue to be rather light (for November especially) from a northwest direction although somewhat variable, and it will begin to turn colder late in the day.

    FRIDAY will become more sunny than cloudy in most areas, and a bit colder with morning lows -3 to +2 C and highs 6 to 8 C.

    SATURDAY will bring light rain to some areas near the south coast and a sleety mix of rain and snow over hills in south coastal counties. Further north it will be dry with high cloud layers from the southern disturbance, trending to sunny skies in parts of Ulster. Lows -4 to +3 C (the colder values inland north and higher values near south coast) and highs about 5 C in most areas.

    SUNDAY will be sunny and quite cold with sharp morning frosts, lows -5 to -2 C and afternoon highs near 5 C.

    MONDAY will bring variable cloud and the chance of some brief drizzle or light rain as warm fronts pass through the north, otherwise dry and turning considerably milder with rising temperatures through the night followed by afternoon temperatures reaching 10 or 11 C.

    TUESDAY will also be breezy and mild with highs 10 to 13 C.

    NEXT WEEK will then continue rather mild with highs 10 to 13 C, nights will be mostly frost free and there may be some rain in the mix by about Thursday. It will be breezy at times becoming windy by Thursday and Friday. It now appears just slightly cooler for a time around the end of next week into the weekend of the 7th-8th December, before a more variable regime sets in towards mid-December.

    My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with mist patches on nearby hills and a high of about 3 C. There is a bit of ice and snow on the ground although more ice than snow at this point. Local hills are snow covered but the ski resorts are hoping for much more than we've had so far. Heavy snow did fall to the east of here across the northern plains states and is now heading east from there towards the inland portions of New York state and New England, eastern Ontario and southern Quebec.

    I am going to post monthly outlooks (for Ireland) around the 28th of each month from now on. For December, I am predicting temperatures 1.5 to 2.5 degrees above normal, rainfall near normal to 25% above normal, and occasionally stormy with strong winds especially towards end of the month. Just an educated guess but I think it is more likely to be a windy holiday period than a white Christmas scenario but perhaps some northern hills will see some snow out of that kind of pattern.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,280 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 28 November, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 28 Nov to 4 Dec 2019

    -- Temperatures will average slightly below normal, but the main trend will be colder Friday to Sunday and milder again from Monday onward.
    -- Rainfall will average very much below average, some places may be almost entirely dry, few will get to 10% of normal during this period.
    -- Sunshine will average a little more than normal, to as much as twice normal values in some parts.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be a rather inactive weather day with mostly cloudy skies and a few breaks of sunshine, perhaps interrupted in some parts of the east by a weak area of showery rain moving south from Ulster. Amounts of 1-3 mm are possible with that, and isolated brief showers could happen elsewhere, but it will be generally dry with light northerly winds. Highs 8 to 11 C, and turning a bit colder by afternoon from north to south.

    TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and colder with lows -2 to +2 C. There could be patchy frost by morning.

    FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny, with the chance of sunshine greater towards the west and north. It should remain dry for most places. Highs about 7 C.

    SATURDAY ... There will be some early morning sleety light rain near the south coast and that could change over to wet snow on hills in Waterford, Cork and south Kerry. Not much accumulation is expected though. Cloud from that offshore low will spread back further north for most of the morning then will retreat back to the south later, allowing some filtered sunshine in rather cold but not overly windy conditions, although some moderate easterly gusts may accompany the rain along the south coast. Morning lows will vary from about -3 C inland north to +3 C on the south coast, and highs throughout the country will be in the range of 5 to 8 C.

    SUNDAY will be a cold but pleasant day with light winds, a sharp frost and lows near -4 C giving way to temperatures around 5 or 6 C by mid-day under partly sunny skies.

    MONDAY may become rather cloudy as warm fronts sweep through from the west. Frost could still occur in some parts of the inland south but the risk diminishes further north as it will become breezy and cloudy there. Temperatures are likely to rise after midnight in most places from lows of about -2 C to readings closer to 5 C then it will continue to turn milder reaching 11 or 12 C by late in the day. Some light rain or drizzle could briefly reach the ground from a rather dry air mass as the fronts pass.

    TUESDAY looks partly cloudy and mild for most, perhaps a cold and frosty start to the day in a few inland southern valleys though, and that fog could be a bit slow to clear due to temperature inversions and light winds. But for most, lows about 2 to 5 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

    The OUTLOOK is for mild weather to continue with a greater chance of light rain later in the week, nothing very heavy is expected in moderate westerly winds and temperatures near 10 C. Nights will become milder even in the south as the wind gradient increases there. The longer term charts are hinting at a colder outbreak mid-month, but quite often these get downgraded into brief dry intervals between frontal systems closer to the time. We don't have reliable guidance for the Christmas period yet but my research suggests it could become a rather active pattern with the chance of strong winds entering the forecast but that's about four weeks away so plenty of weather to come and go before that.

    My local weather turned quite windy and cold as a major storm system moved past us well to our south, bringing snow to areas of Oregon and Idaho even into Utah on Wednesday; our skies were overcast with a dim patch of brightness where the Sun was trying to break through, and while it stayed dry, we could see that it was snowing lightly on higher mountain peaks in the vicinity. Easterly winds were quite strong at times and it was about -2 C feeling more like -10 C. Today is American Thanksgiving but in Canada we celebrate that in mid-October and it's just a regular work day here. The snowstorm crossing the inland northeast is going to pull in colder air and create strong wind gusts in New York City which may interfere with the annual parade they have with the large balloons etc. At least that may make it more entertaining.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,280 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 29 November, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 29 Nov to 5 Dec 2019

    -- Temperatures will average near normal or slightly above in the north and west but may come in 1 to 2 deg below normal in the south and east where colder air this weekend may linger through parts of Monday and even Tuesday while other regions warm up faster.
    -- Rainfall will average no more than 25 per cent of normal and some places may remain almost dry.
    -- Sunshine will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal, higher values likely in the inland north and central counties.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will become sunny but cool in the north, with cloudy skies occasionally breaking to partly cloudy across the south, where some isolated showers are possible, in particular along the Wicklow coast from weak streamer bands forming over the Irish Sea. These showers could bring some mixed forms of precipitation on higher parts of east-facing slopes. Highs of 5 to 8 C from north to south.

    TONIGHT will see clear and cold conditions in the north with lows of -3 C and patchy freezing fog. The south will remain more overcast with lows 2 to 4 C.

    SATURDAY will continue sunny in the north and cloudy in the south where it could rain (1-3 mm expected) with sleet or snow accumulations on a few hills inland from the south coast. Central regions from west to east will be under the cloud also but with some brighter intervals, and it should remain dry for all but the south coastal districts. Highs around 5 or 6 C.

    SUNDAY will bring more widespread clearing of skies but there could be some lingering fog in valleys after a cold start, with morning lows of about -5 C possible inland, to -2 C on coastal fringes. The day will remain quite cold with light winds; some places may not warm up much past the freezing point while coastal areas could reach 5 or 6 C.

    MONDAY and TUESDAY, the cold air is going to be somewhat reluctant to leave the inland southeast as light winds and a temperature inversion make full mixing of the air difficult. Much milder air will be seeping into the north and west, somewhat more readily in coastal areas and in between there will be a slight rise in temperatures. Skies will remain partly cloudy to overcast in many areas with some trapped low level cloud and fog in the inland southeast. With that mixture, expect temperatures as mild as 8 to 11 C in the north and west, but possibly much lower in the inland southeast, -3 to +4 C may be the range there. In between, readings around 5 to 8 C are likely in parts of the midlands and north Leinster, east Ulster. There may be variations over short distances as pockets of colder air remain unmoved. It should remain dry except for some drizzle near the north coast at times.

    By WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY, stronger westerly winds will complete the transition to milder air in most regions and temperatures will respond by moving closer to 10 C in all regions. There may be some light rain in parts of the north.

    The OUTLOOK is for this milder spell to continue into next weekend (7 and 8 Dec) with stronger winds at times, gusting over 80 km/hr, and a few intervals of rain, with temperatures near 11 or 12 C, then much colder air will push in by about Monday 9th as winds turn northerly for a time. Most of the guidance towards mid-December goes back to a cool, dry theme similar to this coming few days.

    My local weather on Thursday turned sunny and it was quite cold especially in shaded areas which never got much above -5 C. It was closer to +3 C in the Columbia valley where the ground is still snow-free.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,280 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 30 November, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland


    TRENDS for the week of 30 Nov to 6 Dec 2019

    -- Temperatures will average near normal except for a few parts of the southeast which may average 2-3 deg below normal as cold temperatures in all areas at start of the interval persist longer there; most other places will eventually become 2-3 deg above normal.
    -- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal, a little in the south today, then sporadic amounts from mid-week in other areas.
    -- Sunshine will probably average a bit above normal but cloud will be persistent in some places so the results will be rather variable.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will start out rather cloudy except in parts of Ulster where the sun will be able to break through patchy cloud at times. Some light rain will continue over the southwest with isolated drizzly patches in the southeast. As the low responsible is a long way south and pulling away towards Spain, the cloud will begin to break up slowly in central regions and the rain will largely come to an end over the south. Moderate east winds caused by the distant disturbance will also moderate later but it won't be very windy at all in most of the inland central and northern counties. Highs near 5 C in the north to 10 C in the south.

    TONIGHT will see clearing but with some remnant patchy cloud and then isolated patches of fog in valleys, with a widespread frost likely, and lows near -3 C to perhaps -5 C in a few spots.

    SUNDAY will become partly to mostly sunny but cold, although there could be some areas of rather persistent low cloud due to the fog not totally dispersing in some valleys. Highs 4 to 7 C. Another rather cold night will follow with lows -2 to -5 C by Monday morning, except a bit milder near Atlantic coasts.

    MONDAY milder air will brush up against the west coast and will rather lethargically attempt to push further inland. The colder air is likely to hang on in most of the inland south and east. Some coastal locations will get a slight warming too. Temperatures will be rising to 8-10 C near the west coast, 4-7 C central and east coast, and 2-5 C inland southeast. Skies are likely to be partly cloudy to overcast at times.

    TUESDAY will see the milder air making a bit more progress but with very slight wind gradients in the south it may be another day before all of the colder air is scoured out of low-lying areas. The results will be similar to Monday but perhaps several degrees warmer in some places in particular the central and inland northern counties which could benefit from a bit of a wind gradient developing there.

    WEDNESDAY will complete the transition to milder air in a stronger southwest wind, and there will be outbreaks of rain across most areas, not expected to be very heavy (3-5 mm). Winds will increase to 50 or 60 km/hr and temperatures will be steady in the 8-11 C range.

    THURSDAY will also be overcast and breezy with occasional rain, temperatures steady near 9 C.

    FRIDAY may see more broken cloud as a slight change in air mass brings in a somewhat drier regime but temperatures will likely remain fairly similar, 7 to 9 C.

    The WEEKEND of 7-8 Dec appears likely to become quite unsettled with rain at times on Saturday, rain and strong winds by Sunday, but staying mild until late Sunday night, with temperatures generally 8 to 11 C. Winds could exceed 110 km/hr by Sunday evening near the west coast, veering from southwest to northwest by Monday morning.

    The OUTLOOK for the following week calls for colder weather. It will remain somewhat unsettled and there could be mixed falls of sleet or even snow as well as cold rain at times during this interval. Typical highs will be around 4 C.

    My local weather on Friday remained clear and cold with a bit of moderation in the strong east winds as we get closer to the core of high pressure located over Alberta. Over that side of the Rockies it is below -15 C but we had a high close to -1 C here. Snow went well to our south, Salt Lake City Utah had 10 cms and the cold air has pushed almost as far south as northern Mexico. This storm is quickly crossing the plains states with 3-5 cm snowfalls in places and will redevelop over the inland northeastern states later tonight into Sunday, bringing a widespread light snowfall to New England and New York state, parts of PA and the mid-Atlantic states inland from the coastal cities.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,280 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 1 December, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 1 to 7 Dec 2019

    -- Temperatures will average near normal except for a few parts of the southeast which may average 2-3 deg below normal as cold temperatures in all areas at start of the interval persist longer there; most other places will eventually become 2-3 deg above normal.
    -- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal, with most of that coming around Wednesday 4th.
    -- Sunshine will probably average a bit above normal but cloud will be persistent in some places so the results will be rather variable.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will become partly to mostly sunny but cold, although there could be some areas of rather persistent low cloud due to the fog not totally dispersing in some valleys. Highs 4 to 7 C. There are also a few very weak showers still present due to the easterly winds over the past day; these may drop small amounts of rain or soft hail in Leinster and east Ulster this morning. Most of that activity will dissipate by afternoon as skies become more generally clear.

    TONIGHT will see clear intervals and frost with some fog patches, very cold with lows -2 to -5 C, except a bit milder near Atlantic coasts.

    MONDAY milder air will brush up against the west coast and will rather lethargically attempt to push further inland. The colder air is likely to hang on in most of the inland south and east. Some coastal locations will get a slight warming too. Temperatures will be rising to 8-10 C near the west coast, 4-7 C central and east coast, and 2-5 C inland southeast. Skies are likely to be partly cloudy to overcast at times.

    TUESDAY will see the milder air making a bit more progress but with very slight wind gradients in the south it may be another day before all of the colder air is scoured out of low-lying areas. The results will be similar to Monday but perhaps several degrees warmer in some places in particular the central and inland northern counties which could benefit from a bit of a wind gradient developing there.

    WEDNESDAY will complete the transition to milder air in a stronger southwest wind, and there will be outbreaks of rain across most areas, not expected to be very heavy (3-5 mm). Winds will increase to 50 or 60 km/hr and temperatures will be steady in the 8-11 C range.

    THURSDAY will also be overcast and breezy with occasional rain, temperatures steady near 9 C.

    FRIDAY may see more broken cloud as a slight change in air mass brings in a somewhat drier regime but temperatures will likely remain fairly similar, 7 to 9 C.

    The WEEKEND of 7-8 Dec appears likely to become quite unsettled with rain at times on Saturday, rain and strong winds by Sunday, but staying mild until late Sunday night, with temperatures generally 8 to 11 C. Winds could exceed 110 km/hr by Sunday evening near the west coast, veering from southwest to northwest by Monday morning.

    MONDAY (9th Dec) is looking like quite a cold day with northerly winds and the risk of mixed wintry showers in northern and eastern counties, but that won't last too long before a slight warming trend sets in with lighter westerly winds by Tuesday. The rest of the week will remain somewhat unsettled and there could be mixed falls of sleet or even snow as well as cold rain at times during this interval. Typical highs will be around 4 C.

    My local weather on Saturday was overcast but it was a patchy and rather high cloud deck that allowed a bit of sunshine at times, and the high was around 2 C. With light winds, it was fairly tolerable and probably better than anything that might include precipitation at this time of year. This was probably the driest November on record around here, certainly among the driest ten per cent anyway.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,280 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 2 December 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland


    TRENDS for the week of 2 to 8 December 2019

    -- Temperatures will average slightly above normal in parts of the west and north, trending to near normal central and east coast, and below normal inland south and southeast (by 1-2 deg).
    -- Rainfall will average near normal but most of that will occur around mid-week and again around Sunday. Most other days will be dry.
    -- Sunshine will average near normal as there will be a lot of broken cloud layers during dry weather.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with some persistent fog or mist over some valleys especially in the south and southeast. There it will also remain rather cold with highs of 4 to 7 C while further north and west it could reach 10 or even 12 degrees in some places.

    TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with some dense fog in valleys, frosts returning to some parts of the inland southeast, lows -2 to +2 C, but milder elsewhere (3-6 C).

    TUESDAY will continue similar to today with perhaps a slight rise in temperatures where the colder air is trapped in the southeast, highs closer to 7 C there, and again near 10 or 11 C further west and north.

    WEDNESDAY will become quite windy with intervals of rain, 5 to 15 mm expected, heavier in the north and west. Winds southwest 60 to 90 km/hr will remove any lingering cold air and spread the 10-13 C milder air to all areas.

    THURSDAY will continue windy with outbreaks of rain, temperatures steady near 10 C.

    FRIDAY will become partly cloudy, breezy and a bit cooler with highs near 7 or 8 C in gusty west to northwest winds.

    SATURDAY will bring increasing cloud and some showers of rain with moderate southwest winds, highs near 10 C.

    SUNDAY will be windy with rain and temperatures steady 10 to 12 C.

    MONDAY will become colder with strong west to northwest winds and passing showers, some wintry on higher terrain in the north. Highs near 6 or 7 C.

    TUESDAY will then turn a bit milder again with rain and highs near 9 C.

    The further outlook calls for this unsettled and at times windy pattern to continue.

    My local weather brought a change to snow with 10 cms on the ground, and highs near -2 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,280 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 3 December, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 3 to 9 December 2019

    -- Temperatures will average near normal values in many areas, with above normal readings likely for several days between Thursday and Sunday balanced by colder than average at either end of the interval. However, western counties may run somewhat above normal on balance and the southeast as much as 1.5 below normal due to the colder start there.
    -- Rainfall will eventually top up to near normal amounts in the west and north and may reach 50% of normal in the south and east.
    -- Sunshine will probably appear at least as frequently as normal for December which is only 1.5 to 2 hours a day. Some places may do better than that in the south and east.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will see some lingering frost and fog in parts of Leinster and northeast Munster, with the best chance for sunshine in areas a bit further west where patchy mist will dissipate faster. The slow warming trend will continue with Atlantic counties generally around 10 or 11 C and from there eastward, a degree or two higher than Monday's values, so reaching about 5 to 7 C at least in the inland southeast. Winds will continue rather light but may pick up to moderate south-southwest where it has turned milder.

    TONIGHT will see patchy mist and fog returning and it will continue somewhat cold in a few parts of the east, but milder air will make inroads and rain may follow onto the west coast. Lows -1 to +3 C east to about 5 to 8 C west.

    WEDNESDAY will become breezy with increasing cloud east, overcast west with occasional rain, 5 to 15 mm likely there. Highs 8 to 11 C.

    THURSDAY will see stronger winds from the southwest (60 to 90 km/hr) and outbreaks of heavier rain at times, 10 to 20 mm possible. Temperatures will be steady in the 9 to 13 C range.

    FRIDAY will become partly cloudy, breezy and slightly cooler again with a few passing showers and highs near 8 C.

    SATURDAY will see mostly cloudy skies and rain becoming heavier late in the day, another 10 to 20 mm fall is likely, with southwest winds increasing to the 70-110 km/hr range, temperatures peaking around 10-12 C in the evening and overnight hours.

    SUNDAY will continue to be windy (westerly 70 to 100 km/hr) with sporadic rain but somewhat cooler at about 8 to 10 C.

    MONDAY will turn sharply colder as winds veer to the northwest, temperatures will slide down to around 5 C and there may be wintry falls on higher ground in the north otherwise showers of rain or hail at lower elevations.

    TUESDAY will bring in yet another mild sector with rain and temperatures of 7 to 9 C, but this storm will be weaker and a last gasp against colder air building up over the northern regions of the Atlantic.

    The outlook calls for that colder air to dominate for about a week although with a few episodes where the Atlantic fights back with fast-moving disturbances. This could set up some of those battleground scenarios mentioned in our earlier long-range forecast. Too early to speculate on details but within the week of 10th to 16th there could be some situations with snow in northern areas and rain in the south. At other times it will be generally cold but more settled throughout, but with some wintry streamers (ocean-fed lines of showers) possible in a few areas. The temperatures will likely be moderately rather than severely cold, in the 3 to 7 C range daytimes and frosts at night. If I had to guess at the Christmas holiday weather, in the pattern upcoming the most likely outcome would be strong winds and either rain or mixed forms of precipitation in an active weather situation that could even become stormy. So I will be tracking that potential as we get closer, but maps already out to the 19th are pointing in that direction.

    My local weather on Monday was cloudy with a bit of light snow mixed with freezing drizzle, no real change to the Sunday accumulation on the ground of about 15-20 cms. Temperatures were around -1 C. Meanwhile, another storm over the northeast U.S. has dumped very heavy snow in a few places from near Albany NY to Worcester MA and into southern VT and NH. Reports of over 50 cms have come in, but along the coast in the big cities, just a slick mixture of wet snow, freezing rain or sleet, and a coating of 1 to 2 cms here and there. The low responsible for this is south of Cape Cod moving northeast towards New Brunswick later tonight, placing Maine in the firing line today for heavy snow.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,280 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 4 December, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 4 to 10 December 2019

    -- Temperatures will average near normal values to 1.0 above normal in many areas, with further above normal readings likely for several days between Thursday and Sunday although occasionally colder than average at the end of the interval. However, western counties may run somewhat more above normal on balance (2.0 or more).
    -- Rainfall will eventually top up to near normal amounts in the west and north and may reach 50% of normal in the south and east.
    -- Sunshine will probably appear at least as frequently as normal for December which is only 1.5 to 2 hours a day. Some places may do better than that in the south and east.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will become breezy with increasing cloud east, overcast west with occasional rain, 5 to 15 mm likely there. Highs 8 to 11 C.

    TONIGHT will be breezy to windy and mild with occasional rain, southwest winds increasing to 60 to 90 km/hr, lows 6 to 10 C.

    THURSDAY will see stronger winds from the southwest (60 to 90 km/hr) and outbreaks of heavier rain at times, 10 to 20 mm possible. Temperatures will be steady in the 9 to 13 C range.

    FRIDAY will become partly cloudy, breezy and slightly cooler again with a few passing showers and lows near 5 C with highs near 8 C.

    SATURDAY will see mostly cloudy skies and rain becoming heavier late in the day, another 10 to 20 mm fall is likely, with southwest winds increasing to the 70-110 km/hr range, temperatures starting out 4-6 C and peaking around 10-12 C in the evening and overnight hours.

    SUNDAY will continue to be windy (westerly 70 to 100 km/hr) with sporadic rain and temperatures will drop steadily from morning highs near 8 to 10 C. By evening it could be as cold as 2 to 5 C with mixed wintry showers possible over higher parts of Connacht and Ulster.

    MONDAY will turn sharply colder as winds veer to the northwest, temperatures will slide down to around 3 to 5 C and there may be wintry falls on higher ground in the north otherwise showers of rain or hail at lower elevations. This cold shot will last only a few hours as the next Atlantic frontal disturbance pushes it away to the east by later Monday afternoon and evening. This will cause temperatures to become steady then rise overnight into Tuesday morning. Winds will back from north-northwest to west-southwest in that time, and will remain strong and gusty throughout.

    TUESDAY will bring in yet another mild sector with rain and temperatures of 7 to 9 C, but this storm will be somewhat weaker and a last gasp against colder air building up over the northern regions of the Atlantic. Even so, it will produce some briefly stronger wind gusts near 90 km/hr before the wind turns northerly mid-week.

    The OUTLOOK remains variable as discussed in more detail yesterday. Some colder intervals will be fighting for control against the Atlantic and its strong westerly flow. Temperatures are likely to be quite variable although average may be a bit below normal in this period. And it is still looking quite volatile and stormy towards the Christmas holiday period, even by the 20th signs of considerable storminess in the charts now coming into view. Some northern areas may have disruptive wintry falls by then, not so sure that the south will see them as a strong temperature gradient will develop north to south.

    My local weather remained overcast and generally inactive with the addition of 3-5 cms of snow early morning hours, followed by temperatures steady near -1 C. The eastern U.S. storm has lost most of its strength in recent hours as it moves into New Brunswick and eastern Maine. Some further 10-20 cm amounts were reported in Maine on Monday, and further west they are digging out from 50 cms in some places near Albany NY and western MA. Some very cold outbreaks are on the charts for the next two weeks in eastern and central regions of North America, heavy lake effect snows and the occasional coastal snowstorm appear likely. It will be a cold, dry pattern in other places.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,280 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 5 December, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 5 to 11 December 2019

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values. Colder intervals will not last long enough to make a full impact on daily extremes, so while it may seem colder at times, by the numbers it will average milder.
    -- Rainfall will eventually top up to near normal amounts in the west and north and may reach 50% of normal in the south and east. The heaviest falls will be today, Saturday and Tuesday.
    -- Sunshine will probably appear at least as frequently as normal for December which is only 1.5 to 2 hours a day. Some places may do better than that in the south and east.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will have stronger winds from the southwest (60 to 90 km/hr) and outbreaks of heavier rain at times, 10 to 20 mm possible in western counties, closer to 5 mm further east. Temperatures will be steady in the 9 to 13 C range.

    TONIGHT ... Winds will ease somewhat becoming westerly 40 to 70 km/hr, and there will be partial clearing with just a few showers. Continued rather mild with lows around 5 C.

    FRIDAY will become partly cloudy, breezy and slightly cooler again with a few passing showers and lows near 5 C with highs near 8 C.

    SATURDAY will see mostly cloudy skies and rain becoming heavier late in the day, another 10 to 20 mm fall is likely, with southwest winds increasing to the 70-110 km/hr range, temperatures starting out 4-6 C and peaking around 10-12 C in the evening and overnight hours.

    SUNDAY will continue to be windy (westerly 70 to 100 km/hr) with sporadic rain and temperatures will drop steadily from morning highs near 8 to 10 C. By evening it could be as cold as 2 to 5 C with mixed wintry showers possible over higher parts of Connacht and Ulster. Very strong west to northwest winds will develop by afternoon and evening in Connacht, west Ulster and parts of west Munster, 70 to 120 km/hr with some minor damage possible in those areas. Further east, the winds will also increase but not to quite such intense levels, 60 to 100 km/hr can be expected.

    MONDAY after it has turned sharply colder overnight, temperatures will be quite cold at first in the range of 3 to 5 C and there may be wintry showers over higher ground in the north otherwise showers of rain or hail at lower elevations. This cold shot will last only a few hours as the next Atlantic frontal disturbance pushes it away to the east by later Monday morning to mid-day. This will cause temperatures to become steady near 8 C and then rise a bit further overnight into Tuesday morning. Winds will back from north-northwest to west-southwest in that time, and will remain strong and gusty throughout although easing somewhat from peak gust speeds of 110 km/hr early in the day.

    TUESDAY will bring in yet another mild sector with rain and temperatures of 8 to 11 C, but this storm will be somewhat weaker and a last gasp against colder air building up over the northern regions of the Atlantic. Even so, it will produce some briefly stronger wind gusts near 90 km/hr before the wind turns northerly mid-week.

    The OUTLOOK calls for colder weather for a day or two with readings of 2 to 7 C mid-week, largely dry during that colder spell with isolated mixed wintry showers, but renewed battles between that colder air and still very active Atlantic jet stream driven disturbances will dominate mid-month and temperatures will be back up around 10 C by the end of the week with more rain and wind. There will likely be several more similar oscillations between air masses as the upper level winds remain very strong from a westerly direction, allowing milder and colder shots to take turns lasting a day or two. This still looks like it is building towards a possible major disturbance and with the highest energy peak around 25-26 December, it is likely to come around then (unless the upper level winds relax by then which could allow the storm track to re-set further south).

    My local weather on Wednesday was overcast and foggy as milder air oozed into the region, changing light snow to drizzle and causing a partial thaw of ground cover snow which has settled now to about 8 cms. Temperatures rose gradually to about 3 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,280 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 6 December, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 6 to 12 Dec 2019

    -- Temperatures will average 0.5 to 1.5 deg above normal values. Colder intervals will not last long enough to make a full impact on daily extremes, so while it may seem colder at times, by the numbers it will average slightly milder.
    -- Rainfall will range from near normal in the west and north to less than 50% of normal in the south and east.
    -- Sunshine will probably appear at least as frequently as normal for December which is only 1.5 to 2 hours a day. Some places may do better than that in the south and east.
    -- Strong winds will be a significant factor on several occasions.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be partly cloudy, breezy and slightly cooler again with a few passing showers and the risk of a brief thunderstorm in parts of north Connacht and west Ulster this morning, with highs near 8 C in the north, 11 C south.

    TONIGHT will continue partly cloudy to overcast with a few outbreaks of light rain towards morning, in moderate westerly winds backing to southwest by morning, 30 to 50 km/hr, temperatures generally in the range of 4 to 6 C.

    SATURDAY will see mostly cloudy skies and rain becoming heavier late in the day, another 10 to 20 mm fall is likely, with southwest winds increasing to the 70-110 km/hr range, temperatures starting out 4-6 C and peaking around 10-12 C in the evening and overnight hours. Very windy at times on Saturday night with squally showers continuing as temperatures start to fall back after midnight to the 4-6 C range.

    SUNDAY will continue to be windy (westerly 70 to 100 km/hr) with some rather squally showers that may include hail and thunder. Temperatures will drop steadily from early morning highs near 8 to 10 C. By evening it could be as cold as 2 to 5 C with mixed wintry showers possible over higher parts of Connacht and Ulster. Very strong west to northwest winds will develop by afternoon and evening in Connacht, west Ulster and parts of west Munster, 70 to 120 km/hr with some minor damage possible in those areas. Further east, the winds will also increase but not to quite such intense levels, 60 to 100 km/hr can be expected. Feeling very cold in the strong winds most of the day and certainly on Sunday evening and overnight.

    MONDAY ... The coldest and windiest interval should come and go during the early morning hours and conditions will gradually moderate during the morning, with generally dry conditions for much of the daylight hours on Monday, winds backing to westerly 40 to 70 km/hr and temperatures recovering to around 8 C. It may start to cool down in the evening in the east but another storm will arrive on the west coast around midnight and spread strong southwest winds and rain across the country by Tuesday morning.

    TUESDAY will continue windy and will turn colder in stages, with mixed wintry showers possible by later in the day in northern upland districts. Highs will be in the 6 to 8 C range but temperatures may fall to 2-4 C at times in the afternoon.

    WEDNESDAY will also be cold and windy with passing showers, some becoming wintry, and highs of 4 to 7 C.

    By Thursday of next week, another milder wedge will develop and temperatures will rebound to the 8-11 C range with rain at times and strong westerly winds. That regime may persist to about Saturday 14th before colder air takes another turn. These alternating periods of mild and cold will probably continue for a while longer.

    My local weather on Thursday was a bit more pleasant than recently with some breaks in the general overcast and a milder high of 5 C. It has since fallen below freezing and refrozen some of the ambient slush and wet snow surfaces. We're expecting several days of mixed wet snow and drizzle with fog lasting through the weekend and a dry spell next week hopefully. Charts are looking very cold for eastern and central regions of North America later next week and lasting for at least two weeks once that trend has developed. This may help to keep the Atlantic regime active over the regions downstream.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,280 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 7 December, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 7 to 13 Dec 2019

    -- Temperatures will average near normal values. This would now be about 8-9 C for daytime highs and 2-3 C for overnight lows.
    -- Rainfall will average about normal in the west and north, to 50% of normal in the south and east.
    -- Sunshine will average close to normal, or about 2 hours a day on average.
    -- Strong winds will be a frequent element also.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will start out dry for most with a few breaks in overcast skies, then it will become rather windy by afternoon with rain developing across western counties, spreading to the east by this evening. Rather mild with highs 9 to 12 C.

    TONIGHT will become windy with 10-20 mm rainfalls and southwest winds 80-110 km/hr. Continued mild at first then temperatures will drop sharply towards morning reaching 2-5 C. Rain will turn to squally showers during this colder phase.

    TOMORROW (Sunday 8th) -- Alert for strong winds from Storm "Atiyah" -- while most of the day will be quite windy (westerly 70-110 km/hr), blustery and cold, with passing squally showers (mixed with snow on higher terrain), the evening hours will become stormy with even stronger winds especially in two areas (a) Atlantic coastal counties and (b) places inland south and east with local wind enhancement from nearby hills. Very strong northwest winds are expected, 80 to 130 km/hr, and these could peak even higher in a few areas with those enhanced conditions, for example, to the south of the Galtees in Waterford. The very strong winds will begin to moderate towards Monday morning after howling most of the night. Some places may be sheltered from the full force of these winds by high terrain (for example, parts of the Wicklow coast and possibly some parts of Dublin). Temperatures on Sunday will remain rather cold in the 4 to 7 C range for most, and could rise slightly during the strong winds before falling back again.

    MONDAY will start out with a few remnant gusts of the departing windstorm but it will quickly moderate to become a relatively pleasant and dry day between that storm and another one due in on Monday night. Highs will reach about 8 to 10 C in moderate westerly breezes.

    MONDAY NIGHT into TUESDAY will become very windy again with rain (15-25 mm potential) and temperatures steady 10 to 12 C. Winds will be south to southwest 70 to 120 km/hr. Then Tuesday will be rather similar to Sunday in seeing a falling temperature trend in strong westerly winds, and squally showers, but this time there won't be an interval of stronger winds as the following day remains similar in moderate to strong westerly winds, blustery showers and cool for WEDNESDAY with highs near 6 or 7 C.

    The outlook calls for somewhat milder temperatures to return by THURSDAY into the first part of the weekend of 14th-15th, then colder for a few days before much milder towards the end of the second week of our outlook period. So the roller coaster ride will continue with rather frequent strong winds and outbreaks of rain.

    My local weather on Friday was overcast and mild (for here) with a high near 5 C. The slush factor continues to grow as snow cover slowly melts.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,280 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 8 December, 2019

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week will return tomorrow, no large changes foreseen from earlier.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be quite windy all day but even stronger winds will develop by late afternoon in west Munster. This will be the first part of storm "Atiyah" which continues into tonight. With the strong winds today, westerly 70 to 110 km/hr, passing showers that may be squally at times with hail and thunder, temperatures fairly steady in the range of 5 to 8 C, and wintry falls possible on higher ground as freezing levels will be down around summit levels in general. Winds increasing in west Munster to 80 to 120 km/hr with some local damage possible especially where strong winds are enhanced by terrain.

    TONIGHT the first batch of strong winds will rapidly move through Munster and south Leinster with further minor damage potential and gusts to 120 km/hr. A second part of the storm will follow further north, moving into the Donegal Bay region around 7-9 p.m. and then rapidly sweeping through central counties towards Dublin by about midnight. This portion of the storm will contain northwesterly winds of 80 to 130 km/hr and could produce some damage especially in places not as frequently visited by strong winds. This will be an unusual wind direction for very strong gusts, by recent standards, so would advise not to assume anything about local conditions only based on these wind speeds in previous storms which might have been more of a southwest to west wind direction. Temperatures overnight will be steady in the 3 to 7 C range with further squally showers, or intervals of pelting rain (those more likely in Ulster and north Leinster).

    MONDAY the stormy conditions will rapidly moderate in the hours after sunrise and by mid-day the weather will be much more tranquil with partly cloudy skies, perhaps an isolated shower, and westerly winds of only 50 to 70 km/hr. Highs will be 9 or 10 C late in the day.

    MONDAY NIGHT into TUESDAY MORNING another storm arrives, this one also fairly powerful but with the more traditional southwest winds at 70 to 120 km/hr. About 10 to 20 mm of rain is likely. Temperatures will edge up to about 11 C and remain there until a cold front passes after sunrise on Tuesday. Clearing will begin around mid-day, followed by squally showers in a colder air mass. Temperatures will begin to drop off slowly at first, then faster towards evening on TUESDAY with squally showers, gusty westerly winds and temperatures 2 to 5 C.

    WEDNESDAY will be cold and windy with passing wintry showers, mixed falls likely except near sea level in the south where mostly rain or hail, and snow on some hills. Winds westerly 50 to 80 km/hr will add a chill to temperatures steady in the 2 to 5 C range. It may turn a bit milder late in the afternoon.

    THURSDAY will be milder again with more rain, not expected to be quite as windy as the earlier events, but with some gusts around 80 km/hr, and temperatures back up to near 10 C.

    FRIDAY and SATURDAY will stay a bit milder than average with some rain at times, highs near 9 C.

    It is likely to turn cold again for several days around Sunday 15th, and then more variable conditions after that cold interval.

    My local weather on Saturday was overcast with wet snow melting as it fell, more slushy conditions and temperatures around 4 C. It would be preferable to have either rain or snow and not the messy mix, but it looks like more of these set-ups down the road although a few days of dry and settled weather will intervene. Very cold air has formed over the Canadian prairies, we are not going to get much of that as it goes by to our east, but the Great Lakes and Midwest, northeastern U.S. will be getting it full blast soon, with much below normal temperatures in those regions, some locally heavy lake effect and perhaps light coastal snow events forming.

    Watch for possible updates, and stay in touch with the dedicated forum thread on storm Atiyah which will give you all the latest views of our resident weather experts and gurus. As I've already noted, the northwest wind direction has the potential to drive strong winds further inland than many of the more typical southwest gales that are mainly coastal impacts. Some of the guidance still has slight differences in the details too, at this rather short lead time, so it's fair to say that the outcome is not precisely defined by any means.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,280 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    UPDATE _ Sun 8 Dec 2:30 p.m.
    ________________________________

    Latest guidance shows some ominous features that readers should track over the next few hours as storm "Atiyah" winds up for a direct hit on the north later.

    The first wave of stronger winds (in an already very windy situation) will sweep through Kerry and parts of west Cork around 4-6 p.m. A meso-scale low is forming in the strong westerly flow about 150 miles west of Clare and will produce the winds that have prompted the official red alert for Kerry, and local gusts could exceed 140 km/hr as this feature moves across. Further east there may be remnant strong gusts but this feature will be tracking more southeast than east after hitting west Munster.

    A squall line with very active thunderstorms, likely containing damaging wind gusts and hail, has formed in Donegal Bay and appears to be tracking east-southeast so that counties between south Donegal, Leitrim and the northwest parts of Leinster may be in line for some of its impacts in the next few hours. Keep a close watch on radar for this feature possibly approaching your location if you are in that zone. It could even hold together as far as the east coast by this evening.

    Also of concern, the main centre of the storm which is south of Iceland now will be tracking rapidly southeast to make a direct hit on Ulster this evening. Very strong northwest to north winds are likely to hit the coastal areas around 7 to 9 p.m. and then move rapidly through north-central counties towards the capital region by about midnight. This phase looks quite powerful now and you may be getting red alerts along some of that track (also in the UK warning system affecting Northern Ireland). If not, expect some local red alert conditions anyway and certainly the higher end of orange alert conditions very likely to verify all the way around the north coast from about Portrush west into Donegal and possibly some parts of Connacht as well. That phase of the storm is still a good distance from shore and strongest winds will not arrive until after sunset, well into the late evening hours for most in its path.

    Further updates may be needed.


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