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UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,919 ✭✭✭simongurnick


    mailburner wrote: »
    Nothing bigger than 4/7 available now

    I'm sorry I didn't keep a closer eye on the market

    I think Askren is the greatest bet of all time. His striking/boxing might be muck...but he isnt fighting a boxer.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,733 ✭✭✭ASOT


    I think Askren is the greatest bet of all time. His striking/boxing might be muck...but he isnt fighting a boxer.

    I'm all over Askren myself.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,884 ✭✭✭SlowBlowin


    I'm in the Jake Paul camp, I don't like him, but I have never been impressed by Askren's hands, he even looked clumsy in the sparring footage he released.

    Did Dana place that 1 million in escrow for the bet ?


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,081 ✭✭✭Fromvert


    If we are just basing it on footage we've seen of each other sparring and hitting pads, Askren looks much worse, not an ounce of pop in his shots. But Askren should have the cardio and toughness advantage from years of high level wrestling and MMA but his body is also shot because of that.

    Askren will need to get a hold of him and rough him up in the clinch, go to the body and wear him down. I wouldn't bet on it though but don't particularly like Askren's chances.


  • Registered Users Posts: 38,921 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    I think Askren is the greatest bet of all time. His striking/boxing might be muck...but he isnt fighting a boxer.

    One of them has professional boxing experience, it isn't Askren.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,919 ✭✭✭simongurnick


    Mellor wrote: »
    One of them has professional boxing experience, it isn't Askren.

    Being paid for a boxing exhibition doesnt make him a professional boxer. Fighting against another professional boxer would be a good starting point


  • Registered Users Posts: 38,921 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    Being paid for a boxing exhibition doesnt make him a professional boxer. Fighting against another professional boxer would be a good starting point

    Sure, he could absolutely go higher. But Askren is a out and out wrestler doing MMA. His striking is awful. I'd be more confident in maybe the entire WW/MW roster.


    Askren is tougher. Has more experience fighting professional fighters. His cardio should be better, but who know since retirement.
    Paul is bigger, training boxing specifically for longer, and is almost certainly on gear.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,797 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    surely it's likely these two will go the distance?

    I mean whether it's jake paul on pts or askren pts which are 7/1+7/2 both
    look like value
    I mean Askren it tough but I'm not sure he's capable of finishing someone in
    a boxing match and he's definitely tough enough to go 8 with paul so I think
    paul might do enough early to get a pts win with maybe Ben finishing the stronger.


    I took the 7/1 on Paul


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,405 ✭✭✭weemcd


    mailburner wrote: »
    surely it's likely these two will go the distance?

    I mean whether it's jake paul on pts or askren pts which are 7/1+7/2 both
    look like value
    I mean Askren it tough but I'm not sure he's capable of finishing someone in
    a boxing match and he's definitely tough enough to go 8 with paul so I think
    paul might do enough early to get a pts win with maybe Ben finishing the stronger.


    I took the 7/1 on Paul

    That's the best reasoning I've seen so far, 7-1 is a great price, not sure I'll touch this one though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,466 ✭✭✭tinpib


    Not a bad fight night card ahead, my big priced picks for the LOLZ:

    Took Whitaker on pts in the main 2.38
    Time catching up on Alhassan, so maybe his KO power isn't as much as it was, points is 5.5
    Arlovski has outpointed lower calibre fighters recently, think this might be another one, 2.7 on pts
    Didn't realise Jeremy Stpehens has had so many defeats, granted mainly against elite fighters but took Klose on pts 3.25
    Lupita Godinez is waaayyy too short for someone so inexperienced, maybe Jessica Penne will use her experience to outpoint here even though she hasn't fought in yonks. 5.0


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  • Registered Users Posts: 37,321 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    Robert Whittaker vs. Kelvin Gastelum

    Whittaker decision. Kelvin Gastellum broke his three-fight losing streak with a decision win over Ian Heinisch. He went back to his wrestling game for that fight. Whittaker has beaten Darren Till and Jared Cannonier since losing the belt to Izzy. Whittaker's fight IQ is top notch as is his striking and takedown defense. I don't see any way Gastelum can win this.

    Jeremy Stephens vs. Drakkar Klose

    Klose ko. Klose should have won.his last fight but got careless after hitting Dariush with a monster strike and lost.
    Stephens has power too but he's careless and Klose is smarter than him and can stay away from his power until he lands another big shot.




    Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Jacob Malkoun

    Alhassan round 1. Alhassan needs this to revitalize his career. He's an excellent striker and is very good with his leg kicks. I see him finishing this one quickly.

    Luis Pena vs. Alex Munoz

    Pena decision. Striker vs wrestler matchup. Munoz has a great wrestling background with most of his wins coming via decision. He will have to close the distance against the tall and long Pena.
    Pena will be the better and more accurate striker. He sets up his combos with push kicks from the outside. . Pena also has excellent takedown defense and he's very good at ju jitsu off his back. I think Pena maintains distance control enough to stay off the floor and get the win.



    Tracy Cortez vs. Justine Kish

    Cortez decision. Tracy Cortez is a fantastic wrestler who has incredible cardio. Kish has always struggled against good wrestlers. I expect most of this fight to take place on the floor.

    Alexander Romanov vs. Juan Espino

    Romanov inside the distance. Alexander Romanov will be entering this fight with an undefeated record of 13-0. Out of those 13 wins, five have come by TKO and the remaining eight by submission. His cardio is a slight concern but I don't think it'll go more than two rounds. Both know how to finish fights. Romanov is a good striker, very fast hands and good on the floor too. I expect him to use his speed to set up takedowns.

    Lupita Godinez vs. Jessica Penne Godinez

    Godinez inside the distsnce. Godinez is a top prospect and Penne has no hope. Godinez can win this however she wants.



    Josiane Nunes vs. Zarah Fairn

    Josiane Nunes by ko. Nunes is a much better striker and Fairn gets reckless when she's behind, only a matter of time before she's out to sleep.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,577 ✭✭✭spix


    eagle eye wrote: »


    Josiane Nunes vs. Zarah Fairn

    Josiane Nunes by ko. Nunes is a much better striker and Fairn gets reckless when she's behind, only a matter of time before she's out to sleep.


    https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/2021/04/ufc-on-espn-22-weigh-ins-video-zarah-fairn-vs-josiane-nunes-weight-miss-11-pounds


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,797 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    I fancy Espino even though romanov is a beast

    Think he mght get it done on pts at around 9/2 though wouldn't even rule out a sub and I think these two might
    cancel out each other out and I think Espino will be stronger the
    longer the fight goes on
    Romanov goes in reckless against lesser opponents and takes them down but Espino is every bit as good a grappler

    I said to myself after his last win I'd back him no matter who he fought but didn't expect to see these two match up just yet


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,797 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    tinpib wrote: »
    Not a bad fight night card ahead, my big priced picks for the LOLZ:

    Took Whitaker on pts in the main 2.38
    Time catching up on Alhassan, so maybe his KO power isn't as much as it was, points is 5.5
    Arlovski has outpointed lower calibre fighters recently, think this might be another one, 2.7 on pts
    Didn't realise Jeremy Stpehens has had so many defeats, granted mainly against elite fighters but took Klose on pts 3.25

    Like all those also especially those odds on Klose pts

    Whittaker pts looks nailed on even though I'm not nuts about the price

    Arlovski pts possibly too even if chase is coming off four ko wins but against lesser opponents so confidence will be high


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,271 ✭✭✭✭mdwexford


    Gone for Sherman and Klose.
    Think both should be favs.

    Hope Ben beats that other muppet but not having a bet.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,275 ✭✭✭robwen


    Klose Stephen's is off, Klose has an injury apparently


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,797 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    mdwexford wrote: »

    Hope Ben beats that other muppet but not having a bet.

    I'd never be happier to lose a bet


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,797 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    having rewatched maklouns debut loss I think alhassan will ko him also

    odds aren't great though 4/5


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,797 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    rob pts 7/5
    al hassan round one 7/5

    singles/double at 4.75/1 betway

    Juan espino pts 5/1 paddy
    espino round 3 20/1 betv


    espino pts
    rob pts
    al hassan round one
    30/1


    espino sub
    rob pts
    al hassan round one
    20/1


  • Registered Users Posts: 38,921 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    Mellor wrote: »
    One of them has professional boxing experience, it isn't Askren.
    Mellor wrote: »
    Askren is a out and out wrestler doing MMA. His striking is awful. I'd be more confident in maybe the entire WW/MW roster.

    Paul is bigger, training boxing specifically for longer, and is almost certainly on gear.
    One of those situations where I take zero joy in getting it right. ****ing muppet will be twice as bad now


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  • Registered Users Posts: 116 ✭✭d00mk1n


    Usman by?


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,797 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    had a right go tonight but no big bets

    Paddy doing usman zhang at 6/4 20 max less than evens everywhere

    Zhang by ko 13/5 because I don't think Rose can take the
    kind of damage Johanna took over 5 rounds and I think Rose
    can only win this on pts.


    Allen sub 15/8 helps that his opponents 3 losses has been by sub and Allen has plenty of sub wins


    smith by sub 17/2 If he can weather an early storm or get crute down there's every chance.
    I don't know how good crute is yet and smith over the years has only lost to the likes of Jones, tex, rakic and santos.


    Allen by sub/smith fight not to got the distance 5/2 bet365 smiths fights are
    usually eventful and these two rarely go the distance against anyone.

    allen sub smith sub usman pts zhang ko 178/1 for a euro


    zhang by ko ro sub/usman pts/smith not to go the distance 7/1 bet365


    That enough to keep me entertained.....the first 5/6 fights are dire on paper.


  • Registered Users Posts: 37,321 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    mailburner wrote:
    That enough to keep me entertained.....the first 5/6 fights are dire on paper.

    Yeah I'm going to bed for a couple of hours. Nothing there before Alex Oliveira to interest me.


  • Registered Users Posts: 37,321 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    I think the three champs win inside the distance, gonna look for the best price on that.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,577 ✭✭✭spix


    Treble (x1)
    Jessica Andrade to Win in Round 1
    14/1

    Weili Zhang to Win in Round 3
    12/1

    Kamaru Usman to Win in Round 3
    14/1

    Stake
    €0.10
    Potential Returns
    €292.50


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,797 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    eagle eye wrote: »
    I think the three champs win inside the distance, gonna look for the best price on that.

    Usman might just be the first man to finish masvidal since 2009 but I think he'll do much the same thing as the first fight

    I hope he doesn't though


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,577 ✭✭✭spix


    Underdog clean sweep :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 116 ✭✭d00mk1n


    d00mk1n wrote: »
    Usman by?


    Kamaru Usman v Jorge Masvidal - #WhatOddsPaddy - 20/1+
    Kamaru Usman to have a takedown in both round 1 & round 2 & Kamaru Usman win by KO/TKO in round 3
    33/1


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,797 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    Jiri Prochazka 8/11 now to beat Reyes...been watching this price for over a week and he's shortening all the time
    My head says to lump on him?

    How good is he?

    Reyes was very disappointing v Jan and I think based on that alone he's there for the taking?
    Has the jones fight left his mark?

    Santos hasn't won a fight since but that's probably not a fair comparision after the injuries he suffered.


    I've gotten burnt before with guys like Jiri where they blow some guy away (ok oezdemir is pretty good) and I lost money when they fought one of the elite of the division (johnnie walker comes to mind)
    Jiri has been ko'd twice before earlier in his career (walker had two earlier ko losses too before his ufc stint)

    He's getting a bit short so maybe the double with strickland at around 13/8 is what I'm thinking


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  • Registered Users Posts: 23,797 ✭✭✭✭mailburner


    Anyone ever check out the paddy mma tip page? :pac:



    The picks are incredible, so bad in fact that if I see him going with
    the same as mine I think I'll just not bet on it.
    Imagine getting paid for this though.


    https://news.paddypower.com/mma/

    Recent card tips with main even tip so roughly 2 winning tips from last 25
    If they tip Reyes I'll be upping my bet stake on Jiri.

    usman masvica 0/3 (usman pts)
    miocic ngannou 1/3 (stipe pts)
    Adesanya blach 0/3 (izzy pts)
    blaydes lewis 0/3 (blaydes by ko)
    usman burns 0/3 (usman pts)
    overeem volkov 0/3 (over ko over sub)
    conor v dustin 0/4 (conor ko)
    holloway kattar 1/3 (max pts)


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