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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 / 2019 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    GFS out in FI showing Atlantic mixed with unsettled cold wintry outbreaks from the NW /N . The Jet, according to the GFS, looks to take a more Southerly route in general below Ireland letting colder air sink down over us.

    ECM out to +240 in general looks colder than this week with a milder interlude associated with fronts going through towards Fri 21st.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,008 ✭✭✭icesnowfrost


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    Things still looking good for Christmas Day but way out into FI


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,834 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    I'll just leave this here...

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭squarecircles


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  • Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    Hmmm bit of interest suddenly with GFS going for GL blocking on the 6z, and a similar theme but a lot messier on its sister model the GFS parralel


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  • Registered Users Posts: 599 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    Interesting from Christmas eve onwards ....
    Seasonal for sure :eek:

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Well the cold might get there for the 25th going by the ECM and GFS. GEM different story.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 397 ✭✭Reversal


    Just for fun.. couple of GEFS members starting to something other than Atlantic drivel...

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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,811 ✭✭✭Chris_5339762


    1065mbar!!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    With a significant stratospheric warming incoming next week onwards, the model output should become crazy for the New Year with lots of different solutions being generated as they get to grips with tropospheric impacts from the event.

    We saw from last February the kind of impacts a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event can deliver to the troposphere if it fully propagates and evolves in the way it did from a displacement to a full on split of the Polar Vortex. This December 2018 event is going to be a displacement but some outlooks show the possibility of this becoming a split in early January 2019 including the ECM and UKMO Glosea5 though the latter we do not have access to for stratosphere data and can only go off of snippets given on Twitter occasionally. We will have to see if it evolves into a split as we get closer to that timeframe. If I were to guesstimate, I'd say a split has a reasonable chance with record breaking heat flux being transported into the stratosphere. In case you do not know, heat flux is heat transported from the tropics to the poles by weather systems. This heat is propagated up to the stratosphere and results in "waves of warmth" which disrupt and or weaken the stratospheric Polar Vortex. Sometimes this warmth can propagate back to the troposphere and do the same to the tropospheric Polar Vortex. That's the basic definition of it, there's another level of complexity involved but I won't get into that! This heat flux should in theory intensify any stratospheric warming events in the New Year and result in a split of the Polar Vortex but as ever with weather, there is no guarantee. During the next two to three weeks starting next week, do not expect the model output to be the greatest with lots of flips and flops as a result of this warming in the stratosphere (though it hasn't really been great since the end of the May/June warm spell). We should know this well by now given what we had pre-the Beast from the East earlier this year. Remember that splits tend to have quicker tropospheric responses than displacements.

    In terms of latest output, Christmas Day looks mild and settled with a lot of cloud around. On the GFS, the high is positioned more over top of the country attempting to retrogress to Greenland where there is a weak ridge but by the end of that week, the high gets pushed into the Mediterranean as low pressure systems gang up in the Atlantic. Initially, one would think this is a sign of an Atlantic onslaught. Whilst it does look like the signal is getting more unsettled as time goes on, the fronts look rather weak to me which would really only deliver a lot of cloud and patchy to light rain for the majority of places. If the high proves more stubborn than the model is showing right now, I think there'd be some instances of temperature inversions. This means that upper air layers would look mild, for example 850hPa, on charts with their temperatures. However, the surface would be chilly under high pressure with mist and fog occurring at times. This is more likely in the UK due to more runs and charts showing the high pressure is going to be centred around the east of the UK or southeast following Christmas Day.

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    The GEFS for Dublin look mild in terms of 850hPa temperatures with a dry Christmas Day and St. Stephen's Day but becoming more unsettled from December 28th onwards albeit quite weak rainfall signals with not a lot expected. Remember that if high pressure lies around longer than the operational run is suggesting, we could have some temperature inversions with the surface more chilly than what the 850hPa temperatures would suggest. When I say chilly, I mean temperatures in the mid single figures (slightly below average) so nothing overly cold.

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    The ECM shows the high pressure centred further to the southeast of the UK on Christmas Day than the GFS which leaves Ireland in a mild southerly flow on the western flank of the high. This would bring drizzle to localised parts of the country and temperatures in the double figures under a lot of cloud.

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    My Winter forecast released on November 27th suggested a mild and wet December which has verified very well. It also showed a chilly and blocked January with a lot of dry weather. There was the small risk of quite a wintry January although my analogues highlighted a severe January to come (which I did not rate highly at all). Going by the UKMO and the EPS, my forecast is not looking too far fetched for January (so far).

    Overall, quite a benign outlook for the end of 2018 with some dry weather expected around Christmas Day as high pressure ridges in. Different positioning of the high pressure on models will determine how mild it gets. Some more unsettled weather possible during late December but far from a washout.

    If the Polar Vortex does end up splitting in early January, I'd expect some tropospheric responses start to showing on models around the second week of the month minimum with blocking over Greenland/Scandinavia. However, that's highly speculative. Focus on the here and now. Model output is going to be useless generally for the next two to three weeks.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 223 ✭✭United road


    Sryan, thanks for detailed update!
    Fantastic stuff, your December has been as you suggested, so bodes well

    No idea how old MT is, but his ready made replacement is already waiting to step up!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,976 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    To expand on what Sryan was saying about random model solutions, the GFS 12z shows a cold easterly with snow showers for the east coast and -11c uppers getting into the southeast for the first few days of January. Not gonna happen but it shows the randomness of the output... from very mild to very cold.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,131 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    How does between Christmas and New year look? Thanks in advance if anyone answers.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    A good deal of dry weather

    Bland and mild some drizzle

    Not the rainfest of recent weeks

    Temps 6 to 10 or 11c


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    GFS Para. Way off. Probably nonsense. But still, nice to see

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Hp looks like the trend for awhile.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Has to be amongst the least inspiring autumn/winters in recent memory in terms of interesting weather, personally don't think I've experienced a single day of interest since the heatwave ended in July, just endless damp greyness!

    No thunder or lightning, no impressive wind or rain, no real cold and only a small handful of sunny days. I find my tolerance of cold winter starts to wear thin by late January so hopefully we'll see something early in the new year


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Is that what ye were looking for lads :D

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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,078 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Takes a while to get there no doubt!


  • Registered Users Posts: 599 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    Into January....

    Hopefully as the Strat warming takes effect we will see soon it showing up the runs.

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    Otherwise...….

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Slack HP looks like it'll dominate the set up for a while yet.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM showing a big cold plunge into Europe out in the unreliable timeframe. Is this a sign of the SSW taking effect ? is the cold air mass going to make it over this far ? Can only wait and see . Looks interesting. On the other hand the GFS shows the HP being swept aside by a very vigorous Atlantic ( cold N and NW'lys ) at about +240 hrs with a strong Jet making it's way out of the US. To note that the US is expecting some big snow storms this week which may aid the jet's strength .This is way out in FI so just an observation to look back on to see which model was pointing more in the right way.


    Tropical Tidbits / Meteociel


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,997 ✭✭✭gally74


    ECM showing a big cold plunge into Europe out in the unreliable timeframe. Is this a sign of the SSW taking effect ? is the cold air mass going to make it over this far ? Can only wait and see . Looks interesting. On the other hand the GFS shows the HP being swept aside by a very vigorous Atlantic ( cold N and NW'lys ) at about +240 hrs with a strong Jet making it's way out of the US. To note that the US is expecting some big snow storms this week which may aid the jet's strength .This is way out in FI so just an observation to look back on to see which model was pointing more in the right way



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    if the SSW happens and it seems to be, Im hoping its more a case of when we get colling, rather than if, this place is like spain at the moment, its great, but i love the snow too,


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    With a significant stratospheric warming incoming next week onwards, the model output should become crazy for the New Year with lots of different solutions being generated as they get to grips with tropospheric impacts from the event.

    Model output is going to be useless generally for the next two to three weeks.

    Only proves what I said a week ago.

    https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1078297366237712384

    https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1078297749827866625


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM 12Z showing the Atlantic churning up LP's out at the end of the run. Hard to find any common trend between the models but there seems to be a leaning towards the Atlantic making it's presence felt more on Ireland around Fri / Sat of next week , going by this evenings run anyway. A lot of commentary about the possibility of huge uncertainty in the charts over the coming weeks due to SSW . Intriguing stuff , we will see. One other notable chart is the potential of cold air mass spreading over Europe and reaching the UK briefly around next Thurs on the ECM 12Z run. No sign of this on the GFS or GEM , UKMO at +144 hrs ( weds 2nd ) showing HP well anchored over Ireland and the UK at 1040 hPa.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,761 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Well today the ECM has the HP close to us out to the end of the run at +240 hrs , keeping the Lows well away from our shores and keeping the very cold air mass over Europe, does show colder days / frosty nights perhaps from +120 hrs.

    UKMO HP out to +144 hrs at least.

    GFS shows the Atlantic starting to take over from +192 hrs with the HP not featuring after that and atm showing a lot of SW'lys and W'lys out in FI , so a big difference here between the ECM and GFS.

    Gem holding on to the Hp longer than the GFS and shorter than the ECM where it eventually shows Lp close to us by +240 hrs.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,811 ✭✭✭Chris_5339762


    These generally keep the cloudy conditions that we've been having for the past while, right?

    In Cork at the moment and there hasn't been a single minute of sunshine for the past five days.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    Large block anchored directly over us and the UK on the 6z FV3, much stronger compared with the 0z:

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    It's stronger in the reliable timeframe than the 0z was as well, which would somewhat boost the chances of the FI charts verifying.

    Beautiful charts to see at this time of year - not the snow most of us are looking for, but not the usual windy, rainy muck we can often have in and around New Years either. I'll take it.

    Coupled with what's going on in the strat, it also potentially opens the door to the block expanding northward throughout the rest of the run, which alas I won't be online to see roll out :D Enjoy!


  • Registered Users Posts: 356 ✭✭Strangegravy


    Big pool of cold air heading into Europe in F.I on the ECM - and the start of an easterly/north easterly air flow over Ireland. Long way off but probably the start of the crazy F.I charts from the Strat Warming.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    If the feckin' Brits get a big freeze out of this and we don't, I propose an invasion :D


This discussion has been closed.
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