February 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 08-02-2019 9:13pm

Okay, I checked that and found 12.9 on 5th at Shannon and Finner. Have edited the previous post.

M.T. Cranium · 13-02-2019 6:06pm

New MAX is 14.0 from 12th at Finner.

Top seven forecast temps for Shannon tomorrow look to be in good shape for bonus points:

12.3 __ 200motels

12.0 __ john mac and Rameire

11.1 __ MTC

11.0 __ Pauldry

10.8 __ dacogawa

10.5 __ Tazio

Tae laidir · 14-02-2019 10:40am

Shannon 11.9 yesterday for taster.

M.T. Cranium · 15-02-2019 9:31am

The high at Shannon is being reported as 11.9 C for our bonus question. No new MAX (holding at 14.0 C).

Scoring for the bonus will be in the range of 3 to 10, I decided that as nobody went all that low, perhaps the full range would be unfair, so it will be groups of three, as follows:

10 __ John mac, Rameire (each +0.1) and 200motels (+0.4)

09 __ MTC (-0.8), Pauldry (-0.9), dacogawa (-1.1)

08 __ Tazio (-1.4), Kindred Spirit and Dasa29 (each -1.9).

07 __ MrSkinner (-2.0), sunflower3 and tae laidir (each -2.1) also Con and NormaL

06 __ JPmarn (-2.4), Adam240610 and Bsal (each -2.9)

05 __ Joe Public (-3.2), mickger844posts (-3.6), Artane2002 and Rikand (each -3.9)

04 __ waterways (-4.7), JCXBXC (-5.7), sryanbruen (-5.8)

03 __ sdanseo (-6.0), DOCARCH (-7.1)

A report on week two will appear later during my late morning return to these haunts.

Well done to the three who were very close on the mild high temperature.

rameire · 15-02-2019 4:14pm

Supposedly 16.5c at Phoenix Park today. Information courtesy of Met Eireann.

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1096423103444541441

M.T. Cranium · 15-02-2019 8:06pm

Here's a report on week two of February ...

IMT now on 5.8 (probably 6.1 after today). The second week was mild, average 7.4 was 2.1 above normal.

PRC is at 99% of normal after a somewhat dry week (most of the rainfall was on the 8th). The week came in at 77%.

SUN is now at 144% of normal. Dublin and Casement kept up the pace from week one, other locations dropped back to near or below normal, the blend of that was 111% for the week (666/600).

MAX has apparently gone on a rampage at Phoenix Park today so has changed to 16.5, MIN remains --5.1. This will mean scoring from minimum progression as our highest forecast (Rameire) was only 15.1. Your score will be 19/20 minus the number of forecasts higher than yours, and if that works out to 3/20 or lower, it could be a point or two higher again. Lowest forecast will receive 1/20.

M.T. Cranium · 23-02-2019 12:59am

I almost forgot to update for three weeks of Junuary ... note spelling on that, it's not me who got the wrong month, it's Ma Nature ...

As the monthly data have not been updated since 19th, I calculated the IMT from this week's average of 9.1 which is 3.5 above normal ... that makes the IMT 6.9 to date. It is going to end up at some ridiculous number far in excess of our forecast range, maybe another 8 to match Maycember.

MAX remains 16.5 and any further rises will be (on your tax bill) subject to hoots of derision. MIN will very likely stay on -5.1.

PRC for the third week was 103% of normal, and that leaves the month almost exactly normal (so something is normal anyway).

SUN is now 127% of normal with this past week slightly below at 93% (560/600) despite best efforts of Casement and Dublin.

These precip and sun values won't change that much, PRC likely to drop a bit to around 90% for a finish, and SUN could hold or even gain a bit back.

Will be posting a March contest thread soon, I always have to hustle in this very short little month of Junuary.

Tae laidir · 26-02-2019 10:53am

New max for Apruary - Mt Dillon 17.3.
(Hoot of derision)!

Jpmarn · 26-02-2019 4:22pm

Tae laidir wrote: »

New max for Apruary - Mt Dillon 17.3.
(Hoot of derision)!

I hope next month wouldn’t be Marchuary.

Rikand · 27-02-2019 1:30am

M.T. Cranium · 27-02-2019 2:46am

You must be getting some spring blooming activity with these temperatures? We sure aren't. It was -15 C at my house this morning and may be -20 tomorrow morning. This is not a part of Canada where those temperatures are common like most parts either. We can have entire winters here without going below -5.

Joe Public · 28-02-2019 12:40pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

You must be getting some spring blooming activity with these temperatures? We sure aren't. It was -15 C at my house this morning and may be -20 tomorrow morning. This is not a part of Canada where those temperatures are common like most parts either. We can have entire winters here without going below -5.

Some photos from Dec/Jan

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/ireland-in-bloom-your-pictures-from-ireland-s-mild-winter-1.3757291

Definitely Baltic at Vancover

M.T. Cranium · 01-03-2019 7:26pm

Report on week four and the final values for February, subject to confirmation on 4th from Monthly Summary.

IMT finished on 7.5, the fourth week was 9.4 (+3.4 relative to normal).

MAX was 17.3 and MIN --5.1

PRC finished the month at 83% with the final week only 15% of normal. West coast had slightly above normal rainfall for the month, percentages dropped further east, Casement was below half.

SUN finished around 125% with the final week managing 113% (676/600).

Will post some provisional scoring as much of that will be off the mercy rule anyway.

Good work if you guessed any of the above.

M.T. Cranium · 01-03-2019 8:16pm

Provisional scoring for February 2019

* IMT, MAX and MIN boosted with minimum progression rule. The highest raw score for the month (no boost) would have been 44.

FORECASTER ___________ IMT_ MAX _MIN _PRC _SUN _ Bonus __ TOTAL

Rameire ________________ 17*_ 18*_ 18*_ 08 _ 06 ___ 10 _____ 77

DOCARCH _______________17*_ 16*_ 13*_ 11 _ 08 ___ 03 _____ 68

200motels ______________ 20*_ 11*_ 13*_ 09 _ 05 ___ 10 _____ 68

Tae laidir _______________ 23*_ 12*_ 16*_ 06 _ 03 ___ 07 _____ 67

Sunflower3 ______________18*_ 01*_ 20*_ 14 _ 07 ___ 07 _____ 67

Adam240610 ____________ 23*_ 11*_ 13*_ 08 _ 04 ___ 06 _____ 65

Pauldry _________________21*_ 10*_ 08*_ 09 _ 05 ___ 09 _____ 62

Kindred Spirit ____________14*_ 10*_ 17*_ 06 _ 07 ___ 08 _____ 62

john mac ____ (-1) _______ 17*_ 04*_ 15*_ 11 _ 05 ___ 10 _62-1=61

Artane2002 _____________ 20*_ 15*_ 11*_ 06 _ 03 ___ 05 _____ 60

NormaL ________________ 14*_ 17*_ 08*_ 09 _ 05 ___ 07 _____ 60

Rikand _________________ 10*_ 14*_ 08*_ 13 _ 09 ___ 05 _____ 59

Bsal ___________________ 13*_ 04*_ 17*_ 14 _ 04 ___ 06 _____ 58

Con Sensus _____________ 13*_ 10*_ 14*_ 08 _ 05 ___ 07 _____ 57

M.T. Cranium ____________13*_ 14*_ 01*_ 08 _ 09 ___ 09 _____ 54

JCXBXC ________________ 10*_ 08*_ 19*_ 08 _ 04 ___ 04 _____ 53

MrSkinner _______________04*_ 08*_ 18*_ 10 _ 05 ___ 07 _____ 52

Dacogawa _______________13*_ 12*_ 13*_ 01 _ 01 ___ 09 _____ 49

mickger844posts __(-3) ___ 10*_ 05*_ 14*_ 13 _ 03 ___ 05 _ 50-3=47

Dasa29 _________________10*_ 01*_ 18*_ 04 _ 05 ___ 08 _____ 46

Tazio __________________ 03*_ 00*_ 17*_ 14 _ 02 ___ 08 _____ 44

Jpmarn _________________10*_ 08*_ 11*_ 02 _ 06 ___ 06 _____ 43

sryanbruen ______________01*_ 17*_ 09*_ 08 _ 03 ___ 04 _____ 42

sdanseo ________________ 10*_ 00*_ 00*_ 15 _ 08 ___ 03 _____ 36

Joe Public _______________01*_ 04*_ 02*_ 06 _ 06 ___ 05 _____ 24

waterways ______________ 03*_ 06*_ 01*_ 04 _ 01 ___ 04 _____ 19

_____________________________________________________________

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max 14th Shannon

Tae laidir _______________ 6.0 _ 14.2 _ -5.8 _ 110 _ 088 ____ 9.8

Adam240610 ____________ 6.0 _ 14.1 _ -6.4 _ 105 _ 093 ____ 9.0

Pauldry _________________5.9 _ 14.0 _ -7.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 11.0

Artane2002 _____________ 5.8 _ 14.7 _ -6.5 _ 110 _ 090 ____ 8.0

200motels ______________ 5.8 _ 14.1 _ -6.4 _ 101 _ 102 ___ 12.3

Sunflower3 ______________5.5 _ 13.0 _ -5.2 _ 085 _ 110 ____ 9.8

Rameire ________________ 5.4 _ 15.1 _ -5.5 _ 105 _ 105 ___ 12.0

DOCARCH _______________5.4 _ 14.8 _ -6.4 _ 095 _ 115 ____ 4.8

john mac ____ (-1) _______ 5.4 _ 13.5 _ -6.0 _ 095 _ 100 ___ 12.0

Kindred Spirit ____________5.3 _ 14.0 _ -4.5 _ 110 _ 110 ___ 10.0

NormaL ________________ 5.3 _ 15.0 _ -7.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 9.8

M.T. Cranium ____________ 5.2 _ 14.5 _ -7.4 _ 105 _ 120 ___ 11.1

Dacogawa _______________5.2 _ 14.4 _ -6.4 _ 125 _ 082 ___ 10.8

Con Sensus _____________ 5.2 _ 14.0 _ -6.2 _ 103 _ 100 ____ 9.7

Bsal ___________________ 5.2 _ 13.5 _ -4.5 _ 085 _ 095 ____ 9.0

Rikand _________________ 5.0 _ 14.5 _ -7.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 8.0

JCXBXC ________________ 5.0 _ 13.9 _ -4.9 _ 105 _ 095 ____ 6.2

Jpmarn _________________5.0 _ 13.9 _ -6.5 _ 122 _ 105 ____ 9.5

mickger844posts __(-3) ___ 5.0 _ 13.7 _ -6.1 _ 090 _ 090 ____ 8.3

Dasa29 _________________5.0 _ 13.0 _ -5.5 _ 120 _ 100 ___ 10.0

sdanseo ________________ 5.0 _ 12.9 _ -8.4 _ 082 _ 114 ____ 5.9

MrSkinner ______________ 4.9 _ 13.9 _ -5.9 _ 099 _ 099 ____ 9.9

waterways ______________ 4.8 _ 13.8 _ -7.8 _ 115 _ 079 ____ 7.2

Tazio __________________ 4.8 _ 11.5 _ -5.5 _ 080 _ 085 ___ 10.5

sryanbruen ______________4.6 _ 14.9 _ -6.8 _ 105 _ 090 ____ 6.1

Joe Public _______________4.6 _ 13.5 _ -7.4 _ 110 _ 103 ____ 8.7
_____________________________________________________________

M.T. Cranium · 04-03-2019 6:56pm

The Monthly Summary confirms all data used for scoring and so the table in the previous post is declared final scoring now.

Here's the annual update with the winter four seasons results added in.

Annual scoring Jan-Feb 2019, with winter seasonal scoring

The four seasons contest awards points for the highest totals, 10 for first place, then 7 for second, 6 for third, etc, down to 1 point for 8th, 9th and 10th places.

FORECASTER __________ Jan _ Feb __ 2019 TOTAL __ Dec 2018 _ Winter 2018-19 TOTAL, points

Sunflower3 _____________77 __ 67 ___ 144 _________ 39 _______ 183 _____ 1

Tae laidir ______________ 70 __ 67 ___ 137 _________ 81 _______ 218 ____ 10

Rameire _______________ 56 __ 77 ___ 133 _________ 45 _______ 178

DOCARCH ______________63 __ 68 ___ 131 _________ 70 _______ 201 _____ 6

Adam240610 ___________ 63 __ 65 ___ 128 _________ 82 _______ 210 _____ 7

MrSkinner ______________70 __ 52 ___ 122 _________ 71 _______ 193 _____ 4

Rikand ________________ 62 __ 59 ___ 121 _________ 30 _______ 151

Kindred Spirit ___________58 __ 62 ___ 120 _________ 71 _______ 191 _____ 3

JCX BXC _______________65 __ 53 ___ 118 _________ 47 _______ 165

___ Con Sensus ________ 61 __ 57 ___ 118 _________ 70 _______ 188 _____ (2)

pauldry _______________ 55 __ 62 ___ 117 _________ 78 _______ 195 _____ 5

200motels _____________48 __ 68 ___ 116 _________ 56 _______ 172

Jpmarn _______________ 69 __ 43 ___ 112 _________ 75 _______ 187 _____ 2

mickger844posts ________65 __ 47 ___ 112 _________ 73 _______ 185 _____ 1

john mac _____________ 49 __ 61 ___ 110 _________ 55 _______ 165

NormaL _______________49 __ 60 ___ 109 _________ 55 _______ 164

Artane2002 ____________46 __ 60 ___ 106 _________ 69 _______ 175

Bsal __________________47 __ 58 ___ 105 _________ 75 _______ 180 _____ 1

M.T. Cranium __________ 45 __ 54 ____ 99 _________ 57 _______ 156

waterways _____________75 __ 19 ____ 94 _________ 46 _______ 140

dasa29 _______________ 48 __ 46 ____ 94 _________ 43 _______ 137

Dacogawa _____________41 __ 49 ____ 90 _________ 54 _______ 144

Joe Public _____________ 62 __ 24 ____ 86 _________ 79 _______ 165

sryanbruen ____________41 __ 42 ____ 83 _________ 64 _______ 147

sdanseo ______________ 45 __ 36 ____ 81 _________ 67 _______ 148

YanSno _______________62 __ --- ____ 62 _________ --- ________ 62

Tazio ________________ --- __ 44 ____ 44 _________ --- ________ 44

derekon ______________ 39 __ --- ____ 39 _________ --- ________ 39

BLIZZARD7 ___________ 18 __ --- ____ 18 _________ 34 ________ 52

bazlers _______________ --- __ ---____ --- _________ 37 ________ 37
__________________________________________________________________

Congrats to sunflower3 for leading the annual scoring and also to Tae laidir, second in annual scoring and first in the winter four seasons total scoring.

February 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

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