FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

JCX BXC · 23-02-2021 2:17am

Larbre34 wrote: »

Hows this working out?

A bit early to tell?

Not saying I agree with the OP though.

nacho libre · 23-02-2021 2:37am

A section of The Polar Vortex drops on Eastern Europe, while me miss out or on the periphery. The high seemingly can't get far enough north to push the cold our way. We need a direct hit, a diluted easterly won't cut it in March. I am kind sick of the near misses at this stage. I would love just one significant snowfall at this stage, even if its gone the next day.

Calibos · 23-02-2021 2:41am

What I wouldn't give for some of that short-lived Greek, Syrian, Jordanian and Saudi Arabian Snow.

Gonzo · 23-02-2021 3:09am

nacho libre wrote: »

A section of The Polar Vortex drops on Eastern Europe, while me miss out or on the periphery. The high seemingly can't get far enough north to push the cold our way. We need a direct hit, a diluted easterly won't cut it in March. I am kind sick of the near misses at this stage. I would love just one significant snowfall at this stage, even if its gone the next day.

The near miss in early February, still within prime time still couldn't cut it. We need a direct hit or we get nothing in March. We've been so unlucky this year. Just about every other European country managed to get a direct hit of cold and snow this winter except for maybe Portugal. Even a direct hit after mid March snow melt will still be a problem during the day.

PokeHerKing · 23-02-2021 9:36am

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Both the 12z ECM and 18z GFS aren't far away from an easterly by 6 March (ECM only goes to 4 March but shows promise and GFS easterly is a near miss - but still...)

Greece gets the easterly on the 0Z. I'm sure it'll be back towards us on the 6z. Or completely gone altogether

Height roses from the start of March looks to be locked in at least, after that who knows where she goes. Pin a tail on the donkey until we get closer.

Gonzo · 23-02-2021 1:17pm

the cold spell will continue to get shifted around from one part of europe to another and delayed. Expect nothing as the chances of us getting a cold and snowy period in the next 2 to 3 weeks looks fairly remote. We may end up getting cold zonality but that limits snow mainly to hills and anything that falls would melt instantly by the middle of March.

nacho libre · 23-02-2021 1:40pm

The vortex moving to the arctic could allow heights to rise towards the north or northwest after the initial settled spell , so perhaps a north westerly or brief northerly airflow into the second week of March. A GFS run yesterday ended with a northerly.

Gonzo · 23-02-2021 2:39pm

The northerly yesterday only skimed Ireland and there wasn't anything other than a cool day associated with it and it was mostly dry as well which is the way most northerlies go for us. Snow was confined to mainly Scotland in that run.

Gonzo · 23-02-2021 4:01pm

The ECM extended is out and basically it is hinting at a dryer than average first half of March, especially for eastern and southern areas. The north and west will be closer to normal in terms of precipitation by the second week of March with hints of the Atlantic beginning to make inroads again. The first week of March will be very mild, perhaps 3 to 5C above average. Once we get to the second week of March temperatures will be back to more normal values.

The ECM is hinting at a return of the westerlies for the second half of March and it may become increasingly unsettled and perhaps slightly cooler if we have a north-west to south-east alignment of the low pressures in off the Atlantic.

23-02-2021 5:36pm

Dryer than average is the buzz. It's a thumbs up from me.

Gonzo · 23-02-2021 6:29pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Dryer than average is the buzz. It's a thumbs up from me.

Unfortunately as this is FI this dry spell is not guaranteed for any decent length of time. The 12z wants to to bring cooler weather in from the 3rd of March which develops into an easterly. Not a freezer easterly but a cool easterly which would bring days of rain showers to the eastern half of the country with wintryness on the hills. Hopefully this doesn't happen as it would not be pleasant. A 'flat' easterly in March is no longer bitterly cold, it needs to be a North easterly to bring temperatures down cold enough. By the end of March we would need a direct northerly from the pole in order to maintain wintryness. Easterlies can be very cold in the winter but they become milder as we move into the Spring and eventually warm by the end of Spring and into the start of summer.

Atlantic comes back a few days later with a cool north-west to south-east flow.

23-02-2021 7:02pm

Well this is exciting...

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1364218455868772356?s=19

nacho libre · 24-02-2021 1:32pm

Gonzo wrote: »

The ECM extended is out and basically it is hinting at a dryer than average first half of March, especially for eastern and southern areas. The north and west will be closer to normal in terms of precipitation by the second week of March with hints of the Atlantic beginning to make inroads again. The first week of March will be very mild, perhaps 3 to 5C above average. Once we get to the second week of March temperatures will be back to more normal values.

The ECM is hinting at a return of the westerlies for the second half of March and it may become increasingly unsettled and perhaps slightly cooler if we have a north-west to south-east alignment of the low pressures in off the Atlantic.

I will not be reading too much into those EC46 update after this winter, they have been wide of the mark alot, particularly for this Februray. Although it does look like the first week of March will be settled, with cold zonality likely after that . The chance of a deep cold spell is all but gone now, the best we can hope for is a decent northern toppler.

pauldry · 24-02-2021 3:09pm

Even though the weather for the coming days will be nice will that mean this forum will be silent?

I enjoyed all the mini events of the past few weeks. Certainly not as boring as past Winters even though snow was minimal.

Maybe March can surprise us yet. I remember one night in March, oh it must be nearly 15 years ago now and the snow was up to our knees. It quickly turned to rain the next day but there was lumps of it for one or two days. Would that be too much to ask?

Gonzo · 24-02-2021 3:18pm

pauldry wrote: »

Even though the weather for the coming days will be nice will that mean this forum will be silent?

I enjoyed all the mini events of the past few weeks. Certainly not as boring as past Winters even though snow was minimal.

Spring is probably the quietest season of the year in terms of weather interest. Winter is gone for another year and interest generally only picks up around May when the weather hopefully turns more towards summer, then the model watching comes back looking for warm spells/heatwaves which rarely affect Ireland! Once we move into the autumn the buildup to winter begins again, so Spring is generally always the quietest season unless something exceptional happens such as BFTE/Storm Emma in March 2018.

Gonzo · 24-02-2021 3:40pm

The dry/settled period of weather should be starting around now with very little rain over the next week to 10 days. This dry spell will be most welcome after what seems like an eternity of damp or wet conditions since the 1st week of June 2020. it will remain very mild throughout the next week generally but once we reach the end of the first week of March temperatures will return to normal or slightly below average.

At the moment the GFS is suggesting plenty of cold zonality from the 6th of March with fairly windy and wet conditions and these could be wintry on hills and mountains.

We finish with perhaps a brief northerly and staying cold.

nacho libre · 24-02-2021 4:18pm

pauldry wrote: »

Even though the weather for the coming days will be nice will that mean this forum will be silent?

I enjoyed all the mini events of the past few weeks. Certainly not as boring as past Winters even though snow was minimal.

Maybe March can surprise us yet. I remember one night in March, oh it must be nearly 15 years ago now and the snow was up to our knees. It quickly turned to rain the next day but there was lumps of it for one or two days. Would that be too much to ask?[/QUOT
If we get early morning frost and fog, it might inspire people to take photos and post them

Decent snowfall used to be quite common in March, back when we used to get potent northerlies. There are people here claiming climate change has led to less cold northerlies, but it does not seem to be a problem in the states, although the cold there does not have to travel over vast stretches of warmer waters. Also, the whole vortex can pay them visit.
I would love a northerly of old to pay us a visit this March.

Gonzo · 24-02-2021 4:23pm

The problem with the northerlies we get is nothing to do with climate change. It is the fact that the majority of northerlies we get aren't real northerlies, they are northerly topplers which only brush through the country for a day or so and are replaced by mild weather from the Atlantic 24 to 48 hours later. A real direct northerly is a completely different beast and requires blocking to be in place to stop the Atlantic from collapsing the northerly back into eastern Europe.

nacho libre · 24-02-2021 6:11pm

Gonzo wrote: »

The problem with the northerlies we get is nothing to do with climate change. It is the fact that the majority of northerlies we get aren't real northerlies, they are northerly topplers which only brush through the country for a day or so and are replaced by mild weather from the Atlantic 24 to 48 hours later. A real direct northerly is a completely different beast and requires blocking to be in place to stop the Atlantic from collapsing the northerly back into eastern Europe.

This is not quite true, in the past a lot of northerlies were topplers that tended to last two to three days at most, before an Atlantic ridge came in on the third day to kill the shower activity off, but while brief they were potent. Northerlies that arose from proper blocking, which lasted longer than this time period, were not all that common from what I remember. The two best examples were 2000 and 2010.

Kermit.de.frog · 24-02-2021 6:22pm

Surprising UKM. My froggy senses are tingling

mcburns07 · 24-02-2021 9:04pm

What are we looking at here Kermit?

Kermit.de.frog · 24-02-2021 9:06pm

A possible route to cold with high pressure building to our north. Early days. I'll only get interested if it evolves and is still there tomorrow.

pad199207 · 24-02-2021 9:21pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

A possible route to cold with high pressure building to our north. Early days. I'll only get interested if it evolves and is still there tomorrow.

Come on now Kermit, time to let this one go and let those Lilly pads bloom.

windows 7 home premium · 24-02-2021 10:30pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Come on now Kermit, time to let this one go and let those Lilly pads bloom.

Agree with this. I've had enough with the cold, plus they only bring cold rain in my part of the country.

Kermit.de.frog · 25-02-2021 4:30am

pad199207 wrote: »

Come on now Kermit, time to let this one go and let those Lilly pads bloom.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwkwRQGbxyo

Kermit.de.frog · 25-02-2021 4:32am

ICON first out and i'm liking the trend. I'm not saying it's on but i'm happy enough. It's the trend that matters.

Lets see how this evolves. Not much change required to see a real easterly soon.

For those who hate snow and chaos in the run up to Easter you don't want me getting interested

pauldry · 25-02-2021 12:08pm

Oh sure the weather is so messed up nowadays anything is possible. But the trend is dry and eventless.

adocholiday · 25-02-2021 2:17pm

How long are we expecting this calm, dry spell to last? Regardless of temperature fluctuations but are we looking at a lull now for the next 7-10 days or can we expect more wet or windy events?

pauldry · 25-02-2021 2:27pm

The weather is gone on holiday for 7 to 10 days.
It will have to quarentine.

Donegal Storm · 25-02-2021 2:57pm

Gonzo wrote: »

Spring is probably the quietest season of the year in terms of weather interest. Winter is gone for another year and interest generally only picks up around May when the weather hopefully turns more towards summer, then the model watching comes back looking for warm spells/heatwaves which rarely affect Ireland! Once we move into the autumn the buildup to winter begins again, so Spring is generally always the quietest season unless something exceptional happens such as BFTE/Storm Emma in March 2018.

And despite that, I'd say overall it's probably the most enjoyable and pleasant season we have for most people. Days getting longer, first signs of warmth, nature coming back to life, statistically the driest and sunniest season and we all have the naive optimism that the summer ahead will be a scorcher!

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST