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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

24567…120

Comments

  • #32
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    GFSOPUK18_384_53.png

    First Christmas Eve chart of 2020: Snow/sleet showers packing in behind a cold front with an occlusion over Ulster giving heavy snow well inland. Cold with evening temperatures ranging -1c to +3c (milder near coasts, especially W)


  • #33
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    GFSOPUK00_384_1.png

    The first Christmas Day chart is out: Nothing for snow-lovers in the first offering, a cool NW airstream driven by low pressure to our north. This chart is for midnight on Christmas Eve into the big day - cool and breezy with patchy frost in sheltered areas of the Southeast leading to a sunny Christmas day for most with isolated showers, perhaps some of these wintry over the high ground of the N.


  • #34
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,866 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Latest GFS run not a good one for snow. Atlantic very mobile in it. It just looks like a bog standard 7c Christmas Day on this run. Maybe snow in Scotland.

    Hope next run pushes things South with calmer air over us.

    Snowed last week when it was calm then at same temperature got windy and it all went to rain.


  • #35
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,696 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    the past two runs haven't been great, appears to be less in the way of freezer outliers again and a movement back more towards an Atlantic setup unfortunately. Still time for this to change to something more positive but I was kinda hoping to see more in the way of ensembles jumping onboard with the cold at this stage.


  • #36
    Slashermcguirk
    Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭Slashermcguirk


    I think we will only really get a sense of what is shaping up for Christmas towards latter end of next week. I still think anything beyond 5 days to a week is just meaningless. Hopefully some cold will build over coming week. Continental Europe appears to be trending colder after a very mild run until end of November


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  • #37
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,696 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Slashermcguirk wrote: »
    I think we will only really get a sense of what is shaping up for Christmas towards latter end of next week. I still think anything beyond 5 days to a week is just meaningless. Hopefully some cold will build over coming week. Continental Europe appears to be trending colder after a very mild run until end of November

    Hopefully we will have a much better idea by the 20th of December, we should know by then what is coming our way for the Christmas period, hopefully we will arrive at a much colder solution over the next 12 days to give us something to look forward to. Last thing I want on Christmas Day is a day like today or another very mild 13C Christmas Day.


  • #38
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Gonzo wrote: »
    Hopefully we will have a much better idea by the 20th of December, we should know by then what is coming our way for the Christmas period, hopefully we will arrive at a much colder solution over the next 12 days to give us something to look forward to. Last thing I want on Christmas Day is a day like today or another very mild 13C Christmas Day.

    Oh the dreaded 13 degrees :( Anything below 6/7 degrees is acceptable for me at this stage! Something seasonal!


  • #39
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,866 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Yes our past few Christmasses have been fairly boring

    Last year on Christmas morning it was -1c and frosty in Sligo though


  • #40
    arctictree
    Registered Users Posts: 4,282 ✭✭✭arctictree


    Lots of disagreement in FI on the different GFS runs. Some really tasty looking cold charts but also some very mild ones too.


  • #41
    polarhullar
    Registered Users Posts: 32 ✭polarhullar


    Every year this thread pulls at all our heartstrings :( I guess that's what make it so exciting when any snow does appear, like last week :)


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  • #42
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Just to add some fuel to the fire :D


    anim_jvp4.gif


    anim_fcs2.gif


  • #43
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,866 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Latest GFS back with a cold calm Christmas. A lot of rain between now and then. Some mixed with sleet so if its calm there might be a few snowflakes though all wet.

    Temperatures never get to the dizzy heights of 13c in the latest GFS bar maybe this week. Temperatures of 5 to 8c seem the order of the day most days and 2 to 4c at night.

    Next GFS pub run will likely go all out blizzard or 16c Xmas day.


  • #44
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,696 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    GFS looks reasonably mild and fairly wet up to about the 19th/20th of December so a fairly wet spell to come over the next 10 to 12 days. Christmas still looks up in the air with alot of runs from average to mild runs and a few genuine cold outliers, one of which is the GFS operational with a cold and dry Christmas. Still a long way to go with this one.


  • #45
    SeaBreezes
    Registered Users Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    Whats icon predicting? It used to be good at spotting trends before the other models, ECM better on the final details tho.


  • #46
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,696 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    SeaBreezes wrote: »
    Whats icon predicting? It used to be good at spotting trends before the other models, ECM better on the final details tho.

    The Icon extends out to December 17th and shows a mostly Atlantic scene with temperatures around average to mild.

    ICOOPEU12_180_1.png


  • #47
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,696 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    GFS switches on the blowtorch for Christmas Day evening,

    GFSOPEU18_384_1.png

    GFSOPUK18_384_5.png

    10C/11C at 5pm after dark.

    Unlikely this will verify as we're so far out but every GFS run is completely different at this stage.


  • #48
    Artane2002
    Registered Users Posts: 1,983 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    that GFS run can probably be binned, the expanse of the HP is hard to believe and that dartboard low makes the whole chart look even less plausible.


  • #49
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,696 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    that GFS run can probably be binned, the expanse of the HP is hard to believe and that dartboard low makes the whole chart look even less plausible.

    yep it's very much an outlier as well, most of the other runs are cooler and some are still very cold.

    ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=18&date=2020-12-09&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1


  • #50
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,866 ✭✭✭pauldry


    By the looks of the GFS ensemble above it looks at the moment as if its all if in the air still.

    Predictions for Christmas day anything from 0 to 15c. Does that mean it will be 7.5c


  • #51
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,696 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    This mornings GFS run similar to the pub run yesterday except it's even warmer, pumping very mild air up from the Canarys over Ireland with daytime temperatures around 11 or 12C.


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  • #52
    rooney30
    Registered Users Posts: 379 ✭✭rooney30


    Was checking this thread daily for the last week or so in hope of some cold. After today , maybe time to check back in around New Years


  • #53
    Donegal Storm
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Is it just me or has model watching gotten extremely boring these past few years? 10 years ago this thread would be jumping and we'd regularly see amazing charts at anything beyond ~150h with massive storms and extreme cold spells. These days you're lucky to even see a hint of anything interesting on the last few frames of a run

    Maybe a sign that the models have improved a lot and don't go crazy half as much as they used to...


  • #54
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,696 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Donegal Storm wrote: »
    Is it just me or has model watching gotten extremely boring these past few years? 10 years ago this thread would be jumping and we'd regularly see amazing charts at anything beyond ~150h with massive storms and extreme cold spells. These days you're lucky to even see a hint of anything interesting on the last few frames of a run

    Maybe a sign that the models have improved a lot and don't go crazy half as much as they used to...

    there could be alot of truth in that, because 10 to 15 years ago we would regularly see extreme eye candy in the charts several times per winter but most of the time they ended up in breaking hearts as the Atlantic just stayed in place most of the time. Maybe it's a good thing we don't see the eye candy quite on the scale of the early 2000's.


  • #55
    Hooter23
    Registered Users Posts: 1,488 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    Its just because our weather is not as bad as it used to be...just look at the old bbc weather forecasts from the 90s on youtube and you will see how bad weather was back then....


  • #56
    Nabber
    Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Hooter23 wrote: »
    Its just because our weather is not as bad as it used to be...just look at the old bbc weather forecasts from the 90s on youtube and you will see how bad weather was back then....

    The models have improved. The weather in the 90s is not much different to todays weather.
    The models in essence rely on computational power to run their many calculation.
    There has been a trillion percent increase in available computational over the past 60 years, 1990 is 30 years ago, a long time in technological terms.

    Look back in the boards threads, there was 100s of FI charts that looked super or Armageddon type, but nothing came of them. 2009 and 2010 stand out for anything meaningful.


  • #57
    Donegal Storm
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Nabber wrote: »
    The models have improved. The weather in the 90s is not much different to todays weather.
    The models in essence rely on computational power to run their many calculation.
    There has been a trillion percent increase in available computational over the past 60 years, 1990 is 30 years ago, a long time in technological terms.

    Look back in the boards threads, there was 100s of FI charts that looked super or Armageddon type, but nothing came of them. 2009 and 2010 stand out for anything meaningful.

    Thats what I'm thinking, I'm assuming there's some sort of machine learning algorithms used as well that encourage runs to deviate back towards the mean if they start "going off on one". Whatever it is it's definitely noticeable in threads like this just how few interesting runs there are compared to past years


  • #58
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Cant see much of note coming up except what could be some windy weather around next Tues/ Weds just inside the +120 hrs.

    Cold projections seems to have lessened for next week

    Rain accumulation totals were looking higher, dipped a bit and seem to be making a comeback again out to +240hrs but mostly along Atlantic coastal counties.

    5c47vY8.gif



    UW144-21_wzv8.GIF

    gfs-0-138_bjc3.png

    Pc0B7qZ.gif


  • #59
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Who knows that LP system might eventually drift slowly into the Nordic countries and drag down some cold NW'lys and then N'lys, maybe the Atlantic will slow down, the Jet looks to go more South, last chart looks a bit quiet to our West ??

    I really don't know, only looking for a bit of seasonal cold potential.


    CeNJ5hA.gif

    BScgqVs.png

    xX5Gnds.png

    TIAmT5M.png

    hCNNhQX.png


  • #60
    Cork2021
    Registered Users Posts: 2,259 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    Nothing worse then a mild Christmas


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  • #61
    lostweekend3
    Registered Users Posts: 58 ✭✭lostweekend3


    Cork2021 wrote: »
    Nothing worse then a mild Christmas

    And we’ve got our fair share of them over the last few years. Really hoping the models shift to a colder outlook from tomorrow. We can be confident that there won’t be any snow before Christmas Day anyway.


This discussion has been closed.
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