How long before Irish reunification? (Part 2) Threadbans in OP

FrancieBrady · 12-04-2021 3:29pm

JimmyVik wrote: »

What groundwork has been done?
What the people discussing them in the thread dont seem to realize is that they are HUGE issues. There is no solution to them. There wont be as we get closer to a border poll either, unless the lies get better like Brexit

Simple question really, and it needs to answered long before any border poll. Whats a united Ireland going to cost me?

There will be no answer to that question until both sides engage and costings are done.

If anyone tells you they can come up with a cost they are lying. The size of the investment needed to be made will not be known until the stakeholders sit down and discuss it.

jh79 · 12-04-2021 3:58pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

There will be no answer to that question until both sides engage and costings are done.

If anyone tells you they can come up with a cost they are lying. The size of the investment needed to be made will not be known until the stakeholders sit down and discuss it.

Not entirely true. The bits of the subvention that would be our responsibility after unification won't be known until the stakeholders sit down and discuss it. Predictions on the cost of fixing NI do not require any other information than that already available.

FrancieBrady · 12-04-2021 4:01pm

jh79 wrote: »

Not entirely true. The bits of the subvention that would be our responsibility after unification won't be known until the stakeholders sit down and discuss it. Predictions on the cost of fixing NI do not require any other information than that already available.

SO how much tax will we be paying, asking for Jimmy Vik.

Please provide a full breakdown of how you arrived at the figure.

Fionn1952 · 12-04-2021 4:03pm

jh79 wrote: »

Not entirely true. The bits of the subvention that would be our responsibility after unification won't be known until the stakeholders sit down and discuss it. Predictions on the cost of fixing NI do not require any other information than that already available.

Knowing the cost of an investment is largely useless unless we also know the potential return on that investment. If (purely hypothetically) Unification would cost €10 billion a year, and would return an increase in FDI/long term income tax contribution/reduction in expenses due to the border and double jobbing that amounted to €11 billion, that would be a better economic investment than should it cost €5billion a year and only return €4billion. Realistically, at best we already have a few fragments of numbers, parts of which will continually be taken out of context and exaggerated one way or another depending on what side is trying to make a point until we have a proper costed road map in place and realistic predictions for any dividends that roadmap would return.

I'd love to know your sources for a precise number on the cost to fix NI though? Even as someone in favour of Unification, that's a cost that scares the absolute sh*te out of me given the amount of work to be done to make up for a century of economic decline.

jh79 · 12-04-2021 4:22pm

Fionn1952 wrote: »

Knowing the cost of an investment is largely useless unless we also know the potential return on that investment. If (purely hypothetically) Unification would cost €10 billion a year, and would return an increase in FDI/long term income tax contribution/reduction in expenses due to the border and double jobbing that amounted to €11 billion, that would be a better economic investment than should it cost €5billion a year and only return €4billion. Realistically, at best we already have a few fragments of numbers, parts of which will continually be taken out of context and exaggerated one way or another depending on what side is trying to make a point until we have a proper costed road map in place and realistic predictions for any dividends that roadmap would return.

I'd love to know your sources for a precise number on the cost to fix NI though? Even as someone in favour of Unification, that's a cost that scares the absolute sh*te out of me given the amount of work to be done to make up for a century of economic decline.

I've never given a figure for the cost. Only research paper ever discussed on the cost is this one;

https://ideas.repec.org/p/tcd/tcduee/tep0619.html

The author of this has another out soon as part of the Unification group associated with one of the UK universities.

Here is another one from the ERSI;
https://www.esri.ie/system/files/publications/OPEA173.pdf

Fionn1952 · 12-04-2021 4:34pm

jh79 wrote: »

I've never given a figure for the cost. Only research paper ever discussed on the cost is this one;

https://ideas.repec.org/p/tcd/tcduee/tep0619.html

The author of this has another out soon as part of the Unification group associated with one of the UK universities.

Here is another one from the ERSI;
https://www.esri.ie/system/files/publications/OPEA173.pdf

I was referring to the part of your post which stated

Predictions on the cost of fixing NI do not require any other information than that already available.

I disagree quite strongly with this and just asked for you to provide the figures on what it would cost to fix NI, or even what information IS available on it? The two studies you've provided certainly don't provide enough information to calculate the cost of fixing NI; it wasn't within the scope of either study. The second study certainly points out some areas which need to be fixed (the educational gap being an obvious one) but it doesn't attempt to provide information on how much this would cost from my perusal?

Have there been any studies done on how much it would cost to attract significant FDI into NI? Closing the educational gap? Political normalisation? Fixing the badly neglected infrastructure in the NW? I could go on, but I think it is clear that we certainly do require more information to answer that question.

BluePlanet · 12-04-2021 4:39pm

JimmyVik wrote: »

Simple question really, and it needs to answered long before any border poll. Whats a united Ireland going to cost me?

Some things in life are bigger and more important than "me".

jh79 · 12-04-2021 4:54pm

Fionn1952 wrote: »

Have there been any studies done on how much it would cost to attract significant FDI into NI? Closing the educational gap? Political normalisation? Fixing the badly neglected infrastructure in the NW? I could go on, but I think it is clear that we certainly do require more information to answer that question.

Those two papers are the only bits I've read. Doesn't seem to be much out there.

We know how much we spend to attract FDI so can estimate from that based on population. Educational spend, the same. Political normalization i don't know but doubt that is a major spend. Cost of infrastructure shouldn't be that hard to estimate based on what we normally spend.

Apart from knowing the true cost of the subvention I don't see what extra info we need from the UK to estimate the cost of fixing the economy?

JimmyVik · 13-04-2021 9:52am

BluePlanet wrote: »

Some things in life are bigger and more important than "me".

I think you'll find that its one person one vote, and that will be quite an issue to those voters who pay tax.

And they better make sure they cover social welfare too, because cut that in any way shape or form and you'll even lose those who dont pay income tax.

BonnieSituation · 13-04-2021 9:57am

JimmyVik wrote: »

I think you'll find that its one person one vote, and that will be quite an issue to those voters who pay tax.

And they better make sure they cover social welfare too, because cut that in any way shape or form and you'll even lose those who dont pay income tax.

You're in for an awful shock when you find out about JA being means tested and subject to income tax and VAT and excise duty as well.

It's amazing how those that shout the loudest about taxes on multiple threads wrt the UI topic seem to have little understanding about our tax base, how its formed and how government expenditure manifests itself across multiple strata.

It's bananas how they think they're forming a coherent argument at all.

JimmyVik · 13-04-2021 10:02am

BonnieSituation wrote: »

You're in for an awful shock when you find out about JA being means tested and subject to income tax and VAT and excise duty as well.

It's amazing how those that shout the loudest about taxes on multiple threads wrt the UI topic seem to have little understanding about our tax base, how its formed and how government expenditure manifests itself across multiple strata.

It's bananas how they think they're forming a coherent argument at all.

I think you will find that those who seem to think that people on the dole pay any significant tax, dont actually know what its like to pay tax. Now I get why you think the tax payer can afford it

BonnieSituation · 13-04-2021 11:03am

JimmyVik wrote: »

I think you will find that those who seem to think that people on the dole pay any significant tax, dont actually know what its like to pay tax. Now I get why you think the tax payer can afford it

Right. I mean, there's not much one can do when the level of debate is "journal comments".

Furze99 · 13-04-2021 12:58pm

You can't buy loyalty to a state. You have to persuade people.

This is the simple fact that Republican minded Nationalists avoid.

Why? Because 'Nationalism' is based on defining and emphasising differences.

I want a UI. You want a UI. Then work to persuade all citizens of the island that it's in the joint interests of everybody.

That entails changes to a century old mindset down south.

FrancieBrady · 13-04-2021 1:02pm

Furze99 wrote: »

You can't buy loyalty to a state. You have to persuade people.

This is the simple fact that Republican minded Nationalists avoid.

Why? Because 'Nationalism' is based on defining and emphasising differences.

I want a UI. You want a UI. Then work to persuade all citizens of the island that it's in the joint interests of everybody.

That entails changes to a century old mindset down south.

Define those who don't want the process of persuasion to even begin? A first Border Poll campaign.

BonnieSituation · 13-04-2021 1:11pm

Furze99 wrote: »

You can't buy loyalty to a state. You have to persuade people.

This is the simple fact that Republican minded Nationalists avoid.

Why? Because 'Nationalism' is based on defining and emphasising differences.

I want a UI. You want a UI. Then work to persuade all citizens of the island that it's in the joint interests of everybody.

That entails changes to a century old mindset down south.

Cool.

BonnieSituation · 14-04-2021 2:17pm

I've posted before about Mr Hay:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/apr/14/irish-born-dup-peer-willie-hay-criticises-rules-for-obtaining-british-passport

---

When the de Souza case was ongoing we were told that Mrs de Souza should just put up as she was "British".

What do our resident belligerents think of Mr Hay's case?

The British system is such an anachronistic mess that someone like him can be treated like a citizen (non-alien; like all Irish citizens) for their entire lives, sit in on top-level security meetings, be a fixture of their political class, even become a peer and yet, to regularise their citizenship, is an absolute hassle of epic proportions.

Something needs to be done. I'm completely on his side.

eire4 · 14-04-2021 3:39pm

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I've posted before about Mr Hay:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/apr/14/irish-born-dup-peer-willie-hay-criticises-rules-for-obtaining-british-passport

---

When the de Souza case was ongoing we were told that Mrs de Souza should just put up as she was "British".

What do our resident belligerents think of Mr Hay's case?

The British system is such an anachronistic mess that someone like him can be treated like a citizen (non-alien; like all Irish citizens) for their entire lives, sit in on top-level security meetings, be a fixture of their political class, even become a peer and yet, to regularise their citizenship, is an absolute hassle of epic proportions.

Something needs to be done. I'm completely on his side.

I thought they were "subjects" not citizens anyway.

Hamsterchops · 18-04-2021 6:06pm

Everybody's in a holding position to see what happens with Scotland. Will they be granted another independence referendum, and if so what way will it go?

If Scotland votes to leave the UK then this may destabilise Northern Ireland's place within the UK with the possibility of NI hitching it's wagon to the new dynamic fledgling Scotland, or they may vote to stay as they are in the UK with Wales & England.

... or might they actually decide to join our Republic to form a United Ireland? God knows.

hometruths · 18-04-2021 6:28pm

Hamsterchops wrote: »

Everybody's in a holding position to see what happens with Scotland. Will they be granted another independence referendum, and if so what way will it go?

If Scotland votes to leave the UK then this may destabilise Northern Ireland's place within the UK with the possibility of NI hitching it's wagon to the new dynamic fledgling Scotland, or they may vote to stay as they are in the UK with Wales & England.

... or might they actually decide to join our Republic to form a United Ireland? God knows.

If Scotland left the UK, it would remove the last vested interest most English politicians have in Northern Ireland - they'd probably call a border poll pretty shortly afterwards.

Hamsterchops · 18-04-2021 6:45pm

schmittel wrote: »

If Scotland left the UK, it would remove the last vested interest most English politicians have in Northern Ireland - they'd probably call a border poll pretty shortly afterwards.

But they can't just call a border poll in NI unless it's showing signs that it might like to leave .....

Currently NI is not showing any such sign.

A succession of local NI polls would have to show a trend in the direction of a United Ireland before any English politicians would be involved.

hometruths · 18-04-2021 6:49pm

Hamsterchops wrote: »

But they can't just call a border poll in NI unless it's showing signs that it might like to leave .....

Currently NI is not showing any such sign.

A succession of local NI polls would have to show a trend in the direction of a United Ireland before any English politicians would be involved.

Nothing in the GFA to say anything about a succession of polls showing a trend as far as I am aware.

The only person qualified to decide what constitutes showing signs it might to like to leave is the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland. He can call a poll whenever he wishes.

downcow · 18-04-2021 6:56pm

schmittel wrote: »

Nothing in the GFA to say anything about a succession of polls showing a trend as far as I am aware.

The only person qualified to decide what constitutes showing signs it might to like to leave is the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland. He can call a poll whenever he wishes.

Nothing in the GFA allows Scotland leaving the UK or the removal of the last vested interest most English politicians to be a factor in a poll

Hamsterchops · 18-04-2021 6:58pm

schmittel wrote: »

Nothing in the GFA to say anything about a succession of polls showing a trend as far as I am aware.

The only person qualified to decide what constitutes showing signs it might to like to leave is the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland. He can call a poll whenever he wishes.

Yes, but as has been said many times before, there's no point in him calling one unless there is some sign that the "tectonic plates" might have shifted, currently there is no such sign.

If a succession of NI polls show a shift away from the UK in favour of a UI, then so be it, he may call for a border poll.

FrancieBrady · 18-04-2021 7:17pm

schmittel wrote: »

Nothing in the GFA to say anything about a succession of polls showing a trend as far as I am aware.

The only person qualified to decide what constitutes showing signs it might to like to leave is the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland. He can call a poll whenever he wishes.

The SoS can decide on the basis of two fly's climbing a window pane. Tested in court already - he/she is not constrained nor has to offer evidence for their decision.

It was and always will be when it is politically right...as I said before I think it will come when Dublin gives the nod that it is ready.

hometruths · 18-04-2021 7:34pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The SoS can decide on the basis of two fly's climbing a window pane. Tested in court already - he/she is not constrained nor has to offer evidence for their decision.

My point exactly.

downcow wrote: »

Nothing in the GFA allows Scotland leaving the UK or the removal of the last vested interest most English politicians to be a factor in a poll

See above.

BonnieSituation · 18-04-2021 8:40pm

Hamsterchops wrote: »

Everybody's in a holding position to see what happens with Scotland. Will they be granted another independence referendum, and if so what way will it go?

If Scotland votes to leave the UK then this may destabilise Northern Ireland's place within the UK with the possibility of NI hitching it's wagon to the new dynamic fledgling Scotland, or they may vote to stay as they are in the UK with Wales & England.

... or might they actually decide to join our Republic to form a United Ireland? God knows.

What are you on about?

Seriously, what do you get out of posting such ignorant and uninformed nonsense every so often?

Jump_In_Jack · 28-04-2021 4:49pm

Arlene Foster departing from the DUP, does this impact the chance of a border poll coming sooner than if she'd stayed in place?

FrancieBrady · 28-04-2021 5:00pm

Jump_In_Jack wrote: »

Arlene Foster departing from the DUP, does this impact the chance of a border poll coming sooner than if she'd stayed in place?

I think there are British spooks at work in NI tbh. and within Unionism in order to get rid of NI. Fantasy? I would have said yes a short while ago, not anymore though.
Anything they do (Unionism) seems to be bringing the day closer tbh and at the same time Unionism itself is imploding.

Jump_In_Jack · 28-04-2021 5:04pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think there are British spooks at work in NI tbh. and within Unionism in order to get rid of NI. Fantasy? I would have said yes a short while ago, not anymore though.
Anything they do (Unionism) seems to be bringing the day closer tbh and at the same time Unionism itself is imploding.

It certainly seems that way at times.

downcow · 29-04-2021 4:50am

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think there are British spooks at work in NI tbh. and within Unionism in order to get rid of NI. Fantasy? I would have said yes a short while ago, not anymore though.
Anything they do (Unionism) seems to be bringing the day closer tbh and at the same time Unionism itself is imploding.

I agree with the first bit of you statement We would be as naive as republicans seem to still be about the levels of infiltration of the ira, if we did not think the dup and sf are infiltrated.
The dup destined to implode and they just seem to have pr disaster after pr disaster. Sooner the better in my view
Some dup decisions seem as diametrically opposed you their main objectives as was the supporting of the gfa by sf.

How long before Irish reunification? (Part 2) Threadbans in OP

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