Property Market 2020

Billythekid19 · 14-01-2020 3:29pm

Woshy wrote: »

I really hope some more houses come on the market soon - there is nothing for sale in the area we are looking in that is suitable. I'm hoping it will pick up in the Spring.

We put an offer 30k below asking on a house nearby that we liked. It's been for sale since the end of September. There are no other bidders (despite there being about 7 families at the viewing) but the sellers have rejected the offer as they want asking price (which we feel is overpriced). We've said we'll leave the offer on the table and we're willing to negotiate but we're not bidding against ourselves or just offering asking price. EA is adamant the sellers will only take the asking price. So I guess we're walking away and hoping something better comes on the market soon.

Your better off walking away. I recently ended up in a bidding war against myself and eventually withdrew the offer as the estate agent had been selling me a pup.

gourcuff · 14-01-2020 3:51pm

we are 2 non-dubs, both 32, looking to buy this year in dublin (live here for a few years anyway while careers going well and before kids come), have mortgage approval of 420 and have c.70k in savings between the 2 of us.

We lack the local knowledge on areas that we hear about when we go to viewings, we hear things like "oh yeah but that end of the estate is near the ex-corpo estate so less valuable" - Whilst we are not at all interested in the postcode snobbery thing or the old anglo class culture we are aware that these things affect value for resale etc.

As we dont want to live here long term we need to be aware of re-sale value, any tips on gaining knowledge on these kind of local quirks that affect prices?

Sleepy · 14-01-2020 4:02pm

Start a thread on here and put any houses you're interested in on it, you'll get comments pretty quickly.
Googling "with an address at" and the street the house is on will throw up any criminal convictions your prospective neighbours may have.
Driving around the areas on a Friday night will give you a good idea of what the area is like (lots of teenagers knocking around or quiet streets etc.)

Wompa1 · 14-01-2020 4:35pm

Woshy wrote: »

I really hope some more houses come on the market soon - there is nothing for sale in the area we are looking in that is suitable. I'm hoping it will pick up in the Spring.

We put an offer 30k below asking on a house nearby that we liked. It's been for sale since the end of September. There are no other bidders (despite there being about 7 families at the viewing) but the sellers have rejected the offer as they want asking price (which we feel is overpriced). We've said we'll leave the offer on the table and we're willing to negotiate but we're not bidding against ourselves or just offering asking price. EA is adamant the sellers will only take the asking price. So I guess we're walking away and hoping something better comes on the market soon.

Billythekid19 wrote: »

Your better off walking away. I recently ended up in a bidding war against myself and eventually withdrew the offer as the estate agent had been selling me a pup.

Definitely just walk away. For the house I'm in for at the moment, they said the most they would do was 15k below asking. The place only had one other bid. The bidder offered 10k below the asking but ended up being unable to secure the financing to buy. It had been on the market for 13 months. The real estate agent came back and said they wouldn't go less than 20k below.

I said sorry, x is my offer. Not going any higher. If there are any other houses that come up in the same area let us know. We'll continue to look elsewhere. Thanks!

3 days later (obviously thinking if they left it a few days we'd come back with an improved offer) he called back to say they were willing to accept the offer.

Nevermind the salesman's tricks. Only offer what you value the house at, if they won't budge tell them good luck and get out of there.

[Deleted User] · 14-01-2020 4:51pm

Sleepy wrote: »

Longer commutes increase wear and tear on our road network etc. etc. etc.

lol

Woshy · 14-01-2020 4:53pm

Wompa1 wrote: »

Definitely just walk away. For the house I'm in for at the moment, they said the most they would do was 15k below asking. The place only had one other bid. The bidder offered 10k below the asking but ended up being unable to secure the financing to buy. It had been on the market for 13 months. The real estate agent came back and said they wouldn't go less than 20k below.

I said sorry, x is my offer. Not going any higher. If there are any other houses that come up in the same area let us know. We'll continue to look elsewhere. Thanks!

3 days later (obviously thinking if they left it a few days we'd come back with an improved offer) he called back to say they were willing to accept the offer.

Nevermind the salesman's tricks. Only offer what you value the house at, if they won't budge tell them good luck and get out of there.

Thanks for sharing your experience! That's exactly how we feel. We're not going any higher (even with another bidder we'd be hesitant to do that) and that's exactly what we've told the EA. That's our offer, we're not going higher and we'll continue to look. We're not in a rush to buy, we can wait for the right place at the right price.

In saying that, I really hope more houses come up for sale soon!

ebayissues · 14-01-2020 7:40pm

Who can give me an independent measurement of the floor area of a property? Is it worth doing?

SozBbz · 14-01-2020 7:47pm

ebayissues wrote: »

Who can give me an independent measurement of the floor area of a property? Is it worth doing?

Yourself with a measuring tape and a notepad?

I don't see why you'd pay for that, its easily done.

TheSheriff · 14-01-2020 8:35pm

Billythekid19 wrote: »

Could be busy cause at the start of the year the banks are giving out their allowances for over 3.5 times of a persons income at the moment. If the bank is willing to give you 4 times your income you might as well take it!

Not true, salary multiples were still being offered in December of last year...they never ran out with both BOI and KBC anyway

TheSheriff · 14-01-2020 8:38pm

Woshy wrote: »

Thanks for sharing your experience! That's exactly how we feel. We're not going any higher (even with another bidder we'd be hesitant to do that) and that's exactly what we've told the EA. That's our offer, we're not going higher and we'll continue to look. We're not in a rush to buy, we can wait for the right place at the right price.

In saying that, I really hope more houses come up for sale soon!

We are in the same boat, weve an offer below asking on a property. It's been on the market for 8 months, no other offers. EA is adamant only asking will be accepted. We are willing to walk away from it , but obviously would prefer them to wake up and accept our offer.. The house is vacant.

appledrop · 14-01-2020 8:56pm

Definitely walk away if houses are on market that long + seller not dropping prices.

I keep a very close eye on house prices in + around my area + what I'm seeing is loads of houses that are not shifting anymore.

Recently there has been a number of new estates/houses built + yet people are still looking for similar prices for second hand houses.

No one is going to buy these. A lot of the estate agents would want to cop on + start advising their client that houses are overpriced. Yes people achieved that 2 years ago but there were no other options then as now people have brand new houses to buy.

ZX7R · 14-01-2020 9:02pm

TheSheriff wrote: »

Not true, salary multiples were still being offered in December of last year...they never ran out with both BOI and KBC anyway

Salary multiples offered in December won't be issued till end of this month as they this year's .
BOI offered my friend and was clearly told it would be end of January start of February before been issued

TheSheriff · 14-01-2020 9:08pm

ZX7R wrote: »

Salary multiples offered in December won't be issued till end of this month as they this year's .
BOI offered my friend and was clearly told it would be end of January start of February before been issued

Ok, to be clear, we were given a salary multiple approval (> x4.0) in December of last year with BOI....

freeze4real · 14-01-2020 9:45pm

A question for a collegue of mine who just went S.A on a house and paid the deposit.

She said the Q.S is going there in a few days, what should she particularly ask the QS...e.g. roofing, possible leakage etc

Would a QS comment on the structural integrity of the house. From looking at the pictures, its quite evident that the previous owners tried making it open plan.. its a bit weird tbh.. fridge next to the fireplace....

Also would a Q.S report contain costs to fix certain issues such as lack of wardrobes in some bedrooms... like would this even be in the QS report?

She is quite understandably nervous at the moment, so am I for some reason

all about the mane · 14-01-2020 11:55pm

freeze4real wrote: »

A question for a collegue of mine who just went S.A on a house and paid the deposit.

She said the Q.S is going there in a few days, what should she particularly ask the QS...e.g. roofing, possible leakage etc

Would a QS comment on the structural integrity of the house. From looking at the pictures, its quite evident that the previous owners tried making it open plan.. its a bit weird tbh.. fridge next to the fireplace....

Also would a Q.S report contain costs to fix certain issues such as lack of wardrobes in some bedrooms... like would this even be in the QS report?

She is quite understandably nervous at the moment, so am I for some reason

She needs an engineer to do a structural report

markodaly · 15-01-2020 1:14am

My opinion is that FF are favourites to get back in and they will likely try and grease the market much more than FG.
This will entail putting preasure on the Central Bank to relax their rules, so that people can more easily get their mortgages approved, thus driving up house prices again.

That is my prediction anyway. House prices can always go up, if the credit is available to them.

15-01-2020 10:10am

Will be interesting to see. Brendan howlin on the radio saying they will build 80,000 houses if they get in. Although they wont get in but yea i think if FF get in they will do far more building than FG and hopefully keep the central bank rules.

Imagine that, reasonable lending rules and a steady supply of social and affordable houses *shock, horror*

Bargain_Hound · 15-01-2020 12:31pm

Eric Cartman wrote: »

This is why I would never even consider buying in an estate, one off housing is the way to go. Even with new estates , theres one in kildare that had their 10% social obligation, were selling on the private market with people paying 370k+ for houses, cluid bought 20% of the estate and then the estate agent struggled to sell any more of them once word got out so now cluid have agreed to buy more than half the remaining stock at cost from the developer. So you've 15-20 couples are after spending the guts of half a million quid to live in what is essentially now a council estate.

Was in a similar situation myself with a new property. Alarming number of new properties bought up by council and possibly other organisations for social obligations. Our house was attached to 3 social houses, backed onto another 7 social houses. We got wedged in the middle with a family of 'howiya boss''s next door. With a 35 year mortgage and already potentially facing negative equity I was lucky enough (IMO) to sell it for just over what we paid originally to a buyer who wasn't prepared to wait until the next phase was being released. I would never buy in a new estate again after that experience.

OwlsZat · 15-01-2020 1:33pm

Bargain_Hound wrote: »

Was in a similar situation myself with a new property. Alarming number of new properties bought up by council and possibly other organisations for social obligations. Our house was attached to 3 social houses, backed onto another 7 social houses. We got wedged in the middle with a family of 'howiya boss''s next door. With a 35 year mortgage and already potentially facing negative equity I was lucky enough (IMO) to sell it for just over what we paid originally to a buyer who wasn't prepared to wait until the next phase was being released. I would never buy in a new estate again after that experience.

What awful Governance. :eek:

Ush1 · 15-01-2020 1:44pm

BrownFinger wrote: »

We have phones too.

No I mean who pays for the local guards or further distances to maintain services to these isolated houses?

Sweet.Science · 15-01-2020 2:00pm

Bargain_Hound wrote: »

Was in a similar situation myself with a new property. Alarming number of new properties bought up by council and possibly other organisations for social obligations. Our house was attached to 3 social houses, backed onto another 7 social houses. We got wedged in the middle with a family of 'howiya boss''s next door. With a 35 year mortgage and already potentially facing negative equity I was lucky enough (IMO) to sell it for just over what we paid originally to a buyer who wasn't prepared to wait until the next phase was being released. I would never buy in a new estate again after that experience.

Ireland in 2020.

Assetbacked · 15-01-2020 2:55pm

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/dublin-property-prices-down-again-as-supply-cools-market-1.4140499

Odd heading (and the article does not even mention affordability) but it shows the vested interest by the IT.

The "supply" the IT is talking about which is "cooling the market" is a mere 15,000 houses completed in the first 9 months of 2019. With conservative estimates indicating we need at least 30,000 homes built per year for the next ten years, the logical projection is for prices to continue to decline (assuming the government gets its act in gear and stops relying on the market to deliver).

Brianboru39 · 15-01-2020 3:10pm

Bargain_Hound wrote: »

Was in a similar situation myself with a new property. Alarming number of new properties bought up by council and possibly other organisations for social obligations. Our house was attached to 3 social houses, backed onto another 7 social houses. We got wedged in the middle with a family of 'howiya boss''s next door. With a 35 year mortgage and already potentially facing negative equity I was lucky enough (IMO) to sell it for just over what we paid originally to a buyer who wasn't prepared to wait until the next phase was being released. I would never buy in a new estate again after that experience.

Do you mind me asking what the development was ? I am currently viewing 3 developments , 2 in Leixlip and one just outside NAAS .
With a view to buying

OovyGroovyMan · 15-01-2020 4:23pm

Bargain_Hound wrote: »

Was in a similar situation myself with a new property. Alarming number of new properties bought up by council and possibly other organisations for social obligations. Our house was attached to 3 social houses, backed onto another 7 social houses. We got wedged in the middle with a family of 'howiya boss''s next door. With a 35 year mortgage and already potentially facing negative equity I was lucky enough (IMO) to sell it for just over what we paid originally to a buyer who wasn't prepared to wait until the next phase was being released. I would never buy in a new estate again after that experience.

Similar experience to you a few years ago with a new housing development in Ongar. Had only paid booking deposit at time so it was easy to withdraw. Our friends went ahead with the purchase and regret it now. The trouble/antisocial behavior was very quick to start and is only getting worse now. Be very cautious buying a new build, do as much research beforehand. That A rating will quickly become irrelevant to your life when trouble moves in next door. My advice would be to buy privately (a property not requiring too much work) in more settled areas (20+ years) where the identity/character and antisocial element of the estate is well known by now. The government's climate action plan will be shortly introducing new measures and grants to bring pre-2006 properties up to B standard so I wouldn't be overly concerned about a poor BER rating buying 2nd hand. Especially if I like the area. The scary part is, the main political parties, FF, FG, Labour all plan to increase social housing output if elected so this problem will only get worse. The 10% social/90% private figures are slowly becoming fantasy. Shame because it was a policy with good intentions, to avoid recreating another Ballyfermot/Ballymun. It won't work though if they keep increasing the social % of new developments.

Bargain_Hound · 15-01-2020 5:53pm

Brianboru39 wrote: »

Do you mind me asking what the development was ? I am currently viewing 3 developments , 2 in Leixlip and one just outside NAAS .
With a view to buying

None of the above. Was a glen****h development in Navan.

OovyGroovyMan wrote: »

Similar experience to you a few years ago with a new housing development in Ongar. Had only paid booking deposit at time so it was easy to withdraw. Our friends went ahead with the purchase and regret it now. The trouble/antisocial behavior was very quick to start and is only getting worse now. Be very cautious buying a new build, do as much research beforehand. That A rating will quickly become irrelevant to your life when trouble moves in next door. My advice would be to buy privately (a property not requiring too much work) in more settled areas (20+ years) where the identity/character and antisocial element of the estate is well known by now. The government's climate action plan will be shortly introducing new measures and grants to bring pre-2006 properties up to B standard so I wouldn't be overly concerned about a poor BER rating buying 2nd hand. Especially if I like the area. The scary part is, the main political parties, FF, FG, Labour all plan to increase social housing output if elected so this problem will only get worse. The 10% social/90% private figures are slowly becoming fantasy. Shame because it was a policy with good intentions, to avoid recreating another Ballyfermot/Ballymun. It won't work though if they keep increasing the social % of new developments.

Interesting. We were looking at Ongar recently. Maybe will reconsider.

JamesMason · 15-01-2020 6:18pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/dublin-property-prices-down-again-as-supply-cools-market-1.4140499

Odd heading (and the article does not even mention affordability) but it shows the vested interest by the IT.

The "supply" the IT is talking about which is "cooling the market" is a mere 15,000 houses completed in the first 9 months of 2019. With conservative estimates indicating we need at least 30,000 homes built per year for the next ten years, the logical projection is for prices to continue to decline (assuming the government gets its act in gear and stops relying on the market to deliver).

There will be further "cooling" of the market IMO. There is an election looming with housing one of the main issues. Also, Brexit is hardly sewn up - and the fallout at home, in the EU and UK has yet to be seen...we are not out of the woods. Dublin prices are falling as well, there can be no denying that.

Assetbacked · 15-01-2020 7:38pm

JamesMason wrote: »

There will be further "cooling" of the market IMO. There is an election looming with housing one of the main issues. Also, Brexit is hardly sewn up - and the fallout at home, in the EU and UK has yet to be seen...we are not out of the woods. Dublin prices are falling as well, there can be no denying that.

Not to veer too far off topic into economic speculation, but you have raised a key point on Brexit and the impact the wider economic and political climate will have on the market. The asset management sector appears to be in bubble territory which is particularly evidenced by the hyper valuations of tech companies (Google, Facebook, Microsoft etc.) - the bubble arises from the demand for investment products which reference the performance of the equities of these companies (regulators cannot even measure how deep the rabbit hole goes), meaning an increase in the share price of these tech companies results in an increase in the value of an investment which directly or indirectly takes exposure to such companies. The concerns that there is a bubble is seen in regulatory publications being issued at the moment (calling for greater scrutiny into the shadow banking industry).

Of course, while the going is good, everyone has FOMO and wants a piece of the pie so no one knows when to press stop with their appetite for investment products which reference the performance of these big tech companies. The nature of the bubble is that no one knows what will cause it to go pop, when it will go pop and whether they would be impacted (their managers would tell them that they are satisfied with the liquidity of the investments).

Notwithstanding all of this, to take it back to Irish property - the institutional investors are building offices which are then being sold or let to the likes of Facebook, Google etc. and the institutional investors are also building apartment blocks to rent to the employees of these companies.

Therefore, if the asset management bubble pops, the hyper valuations of these tech companies could potentially take a hit meaning, at the very least, a freeze on expansion and in worst case scenarios, large job losses (most of these workers are non-Irish and likely are renting so would have no stake in Irish property). The institutional investors would be left with apartment blocks which cannot be rented out or at least not rented out without significant drops in asking prices for rent and a lot of the shiny offices will sit idle. They would be the big losers in the property market in such a scenario. Meanwhile, Irish people are only limited to borrowing 3 1/2 times their salaries so have not lost the run of themselves and over-leveraged beyond their means (most likely). Accordingly, the impact of this potential bubble popping would likely not cause seismic shocks to Irish property prices.

JamesMason · 15-01-2020 8:31pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

Not to veer too far off topic into economic speculation, but you have raised a key point on Brexit and the impact the wider economic and political climate will have on the market. The asset management sector appears to be in bubble territory which is particularly evidenced by the hyper valuations of tech companies (Google, Facebook, Microsoft etc.) - the bubble arises from the demand for investment products which reference the performance of the equities of these companies (regulators cannot even measure how deep the rabbit hole goes), meaning an increase in the share price of these tech companies results in an increase in the value of an investment which directly or indirectly takes exposure to such companies. The concerns that there is a bubble is seen in regulatory publications being issued at the moment (calling for greater scrutiny into the shadow banking industry).

Of course, while the going is good, everyone has FOMO and wants a piece of the pie so no one knows when to press stop with their appetite for investment products which reference the performance of these big tech companies. The nature of the bubble is that no one knows what will cause it to go pop, when it will go pop and whether they would be impacted (their managers would tell them that they are satisfied with the liquidity of the investments).

Notwithstanding all of this, to take it back to Irish property - the institutional investors are building offices which are then being sold or let to the likes of Facebook, Google etc. and the institutional investors are also building apartment blocks to rent to the employees of these companies.

Therefore, if the asset management bubble pops, the hyper valuations of these tech companies could potentially take a hit meaning, at the very least, a freeze on expansion and in worst case scenarios, large job losses (most of these workers are non-Irish and likely are renting so would have no stake in Irish property). The institutional investors would be left with apartment blocks which cannot be rented out or at least not rented out without significant drops in asking prices for rent and a lot of the shiny offices will sit idle. They would be the big losers in the property market in such a scenario. Meanwhile, Irish people are only limited to borrowing 3 1/2 times their salaries so have not lost the run of themselves and over-leveraged beyond their means (most likely). Accordingly, the impact of this potential bubble popping would likely not cause seismic shocks to Irish property prices.

Perhaps not a seismic shock but a significant one nonetheless. If the global tech sector takes a hit coupled with the increasingly apparent risk of recession to the US and Germany etc foreign investors in Irish property will bail. They do not care about us.
What happens to all those apartment blocks and estates waiting for the influx of post-Brexit/tech boom workers (some of which are already lying unoccupied) ?

OwlsZat · 15-01-2020 8:57pm

The commercial letting market in Dublin continues to go very strong the vast majority of developments being fully leased off plans.

Tech share prices might go down. IMHO those most exposed are those with pensions with vast sums of cash invested in EFTs. There's going to be some rush for the exit when the silly stock market valuation bubble bursts. For the big companies they will still make squillions of bucks just have a smaller market cap. Can't seeing it overly affecting profitability or creating job losses.

Assetbacked · 15-01-2020 9:12pm

JamesMason wrote: »

Perhaps not a seismic shock but a significant one nonetheless. If the global tech sector takes a hit coupled with the increasingly apparent risk of recession to the US and Germany etc foreign investors in Irish property will bail. They do not care about us.
What happens to all those apartment blocks and estates waiting for the influx of post-Brexit/tech boom workers (some of which are already lying unoccupied) ?

We will be ten years down the line and FF will have just obtained a majority in the Dail. With memories as short as goldfish, the Irish people will have voted them in on the promise that they would launch a rocket ship (freeing the shackles imposed by the Central Bank on mortgage-lending) to get the long-term renters (who have not managed to save deposits to buy homes) into home ownership (buying these surplus homes) by allowing them to borrow 100% of the value of houses.

In the years that follow FF getting their majority, the economy is outperforming the global and EU economies, with the Irish situation being heralded by the Irish cute hoors as a beacon of prosperity against the tide of the global economic slowdown. Red-faced politicians are constantly pictured in the news and social pages of publications as perpetually optimistic and well-fed representations of the national psyche.

Twenty to twenty five years later the property market crashes again.

Five years of austerity follow after which the snake oil of the time emerges as the phoenix from the Irish economy's ashes. Ireland embraces this snake oil with its controversial low-tax regime enabling multinational snake oil companies to set up camp on her green shores to fill their boots from her pot of gold.

Property Market 2020

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