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US Presidential Election 2020

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  • Options
    #4442
    Misael Bewildered Sobriety
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Misael Bewildered Sobriety


    The Phantom Jipper wrote: »
    A better proxy for the election is which party is going to win, which is what the poster was saying. The Democrat candidate is level or favoured in in every bookie.
    The Dem party is level with Rep party in every (at least 15) bookie (1.9 vs 1.9). The only single exception is the PPGroup. Hardly a run away favourite, or even a technical favourite, by any stretch of the imaginiation, lols.

    As said, much prefer to see Don/Rep drift out above 1.9/2.0, for more value.


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    #4443
    duploelabs
    Registered Users Posts: 11,130 ✭✭✭✭duploelabs


    Misael Bewildered Sobriety wrote: »
    The Dem party is level with Rep party in every (at least 15) bookie (1.9 vs 1.9). The only single exception is the PPGroup. Hardly a run away favourite, or even a technical favourite, by any stretch of the imaginiation, lols.

    As said, much prefer to see Don/Rep drift out above 1.9/2.0, for more value.
    How do you derive your odds? Precidence?


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    #4444
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,004 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Tbf I think the odds are a little silly, the betting industry got destroyed in 2016 when Trump won so terrified of a repeat scenario.

    Trump outsider 11/10 to win Pennsylvania, 15/8 to win Michigan , evs to win Florida, 11/10 to win Wisconsin and that's with PP who are offering crappy odds.

    However he is evs to win it overall,,,,how does he win in November without winning at least 2 of those states?


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    #4445
    Edison Clean Litter
    Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ Edison Clean Litter


    Rjd2 wrote: »
    Tbf I think the odds are a little silly, the betting industry got destroyed in 2016 when Trump won so terrified of a repeat scenario.

    Trump outsider 11/10 to win Pennsylvania, 15/8 to win Michigan , evs to win Florida, 11/10 to win Wisconsin and that's with PP who are offering crappy odds.

    However he is evs to win it overall,,,,how does he win in November without winning at least 2 of those states?

    No they didn't. I'm sick of pointing this out but the whole point of running a book is to make a profit whatever the outcome. The odds aren't set by likelihood, they're set by the money being betted. When you hear "bad day for the bookies" that's nonsense from the bookies being parroted by an unthinking media.


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    #4446
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,004 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Deleted User wrote: »
    No they didn't. I'm sick of pointing this out but the whole point of running a book is to make a profit whatever the outcome. The odds aren't set by likelihood, they're set by the money being betted. When you hear "bad day for the bookies" that's nonsense from the bookies being parroted by an unthinking media.

    Destroyed a strong word on reflection, but I know PP did millions on him which is understandable, he was always the outsider from the first day he said he would run and always going to attract recreational punters turnover.

    I think Trump has a chance in November as its a two horse race and the electoral system helps him, but suggesting he should be fav because of the bookies who are obviously going to swerve him after 2016 isn't something I am on board with.


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    #4447
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,004 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Eric Cartman wrote: »
    the riots and looting are definitely helping trump. Biden has stayed sheepishly quiet on these as associating with extremist movements like BLM would send his middle American support into freefall.

    .

    Maybe ,,but have seen plenty of criticism from the right wing blue checks about how Trump is handling this.

    Ryan Saavedra is very much a MAGA dude and has compiled a lot of the criticism from similar minded people. Some of those criticisms are from very vocal Trump supporters who have huge followings online. He hasn't even included Anne Coulter who has been going off on Trump even more so than usual last few days.

    https://www.dailywire.com/news/trump-silent-as-nation-burns-from-violent-riots/


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    #4448
    Edison Clean Litter
    Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ Edison Clean Litter


    Rjd2 wrote: »
    Destroyed a strong word on reflection, but I know PP did millions on him which is understandable, he was always the outsider from the first day he said he would run and always going to attract recreational punters turnover.

    I think Trump has a chance in November as its a two horse race and the electoral system helps him, but suggesting he should be fav because of the bookies who are obviously going to swerve him after 2016 isn't something I am on board with.

    They said they did. Only small-time bookies who haven't figured out that gamblers always lose in the end can ever lose money if they run their book properly. And "properly" is a simple thing now with computer power easily able to set prices to maintain a desired percentage vig.


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    #4449
    Carfacemandog
    Registered Users Posts: 2,042 ✭✭✭Carfacemandog


    Eric Cartman wrote: »
    the riots and looting are definitely helping trump. Biden has stayed sheepishly quiet on these as associating with extremist movements like BLM would send his middle American support into freefall.
    Trump:
    YZa-VE85-YGm-ZJixv-Qt-SG82-XLHZT7-Erbb5puz-Urc6-N4-K0.jpg

    Biden:
    Screen-Shot-2020-05-31-at-6.56.58-PM.jpg

    Pretty stark optics.


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    #4450
    overkill602
    Registered Users Posts: 267 ✭✭overkill602


    Ah sleepy joe sure he is wearing primark socks not looking like a leader shoe in for reps


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    #4451
    Misael Bewildered Sobriety
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭ Misael Bewildered Sobriety


    Deleted User wrote: »
    They said they did.
    Didn't even need to say it, when actions speak louder.

    They paid out early (pre-event) for HC to be deemed winner a month earlt. Only to have to pay out again for anyone who backed Trump (then with 14% calculated chance), that's called a loss making event/decision.

    Even so, 1,2,5 million or whatever the actual total market was for POTUS16 is still small change for them (PP) in the grand scheme of things.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/23/paddy-power-betfair-blames-donald-trump-zlatan-ibrahimovic-profits-dip


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    #4452
    Headshot
    Registered Users Posts: 53,836 ✭✭✭✭Headshot


    Nicely done speech by Biden, such stark contrast between him and Trump, good and evil as such

    He went to town on Trump and some nice pop shots


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    #4453
    Foxtrol
    Registered Users Posts: 11,006 ✭✭✭✭Foxtrol


    Headshot wrote: »
    Nicely done speech by Biden, such stark contrast between him and Trump, good and evil as such

    He went to town on Trump and some nice pop shots

    Carried live on all the news channels as well, something that was severely lacking with Biden's other appearances over the last few days.

    Trump has really set Biden's response to this up so easily for him, given that he has completely removed himself from any attempt to 'heal the nation'.


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    #4454
    Esther Gifted Visitor
    Posts: 0 ✭ Esther Gifted Visitor


    Does this look like a man who has dementia Biden

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b2aWDG87nJo


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    #4455
    Foxtrol
    Registered Users Posts: 11,006 ✭✭✭✭Foxtrol


    My fears about Biden are starting to fade after seeing this and you contrast it with how Trump is acting

    https://twitter.com/chrislongview/status/1268252261534388225?s=20


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    #4456
    BonnieSituation
    Registered Users Posts: 18,921 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    Foxtrol wrote: »
    My fears about Biden are starting to fade after seeing this and you contrast it with how Trump is acting

    https://twitter.com/chrislongview/status/1268252261534388225?s=20

    Nailed it.

    Trump's hate can't counteract that. What's he gonna respond with?


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    #4457
    briany
    Registered Users Posts: 13,537 ✭✭✭✭briany


    BonnieSituation wrote: »
    Nailed it.

    Trump's hate can't counteract that. What's he gonna respond with?

    Probably name-calling and capital letters.


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    #4458
    Gunmonkey
    Registered Users Posts: 4,067 ✭✭✭Gunmonkey


    BonnieSituation wrote: »
    Nailed it.

    Trump's hate can't counteract that. What's he gonna respond with?

    Probably get his gremlins at Fox News to find a still from a video of Biden where he is blinking and then "Hurhur Sleepy-Joe, he always sleeping hurhur"

    That or break out one of the classics and call him Covfefe.

    Future presidential debates will be interesting anyways.


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    #4459
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users Posts: 39,437 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Some of the Fox News opinion polls should be very worrying for the republicans not just trump. The setnate republicans who are up will have to make a decision to break from trump even slightly if the polls don't improve. For example Biden and trump are in a statistical tie in Texas of all places with the election five months away. I don't think joe Biden is the perfect candidate but he is good enough and given the way the US is at the moment it may prove to be an excellent choice. Biden should just do what is required because trump is hurting himself without any help from the Biden campaign.


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    #4460
    pixelburp
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 35,941 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    It's an election year, there's not a hope in hell the GOP will ditch Trump publicly, and the most you'll likely see is Romney or Murkowski tutting and feigning distaste. They've held their nose this long. Politics in the US are too partisan, too far gone for any party's members to deviate. Oh there'll be plenty of retroactive "I never did support him" once Trump's gone but for now? Naw, John McCain was the outlier here.


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    #4461
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users Posts: 39,437 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    pixelburp wrote: »
    It's an election year, there's not a hope in hell the GOP will ditch Trump publicly, and the most you'll likely see is Romney or Murkowski tutting and feigning distaste. They've held their nose this long. Politics in the US are too partisan, too far gone for any party's members to deviate. Oh there'll be plenty of retroactive "I never did support him" once Trump's gone but for now? Naw, John McCain was the outlier here.

    I don't expect them to do it's publicly hence why I said even slightly. When it comes to the crunch let's be honest the GOP want their guy in the White House but they want to keep their seats in congress more IMO. So I'll agree they won't do it publicly but I can see those in vulnerable seats using the old "all politics is local" card if trump is sinking badly and making them look bad.


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    #4462
    rossie1977
    Registered Users Posts: 11,341 ✭✭✭✭rossie1977


    Yes we saw that when the MSNBC reporter tried to interview any Republican senator the other day and not one would talk to her.

    Republicans one and all are still behind Trump, even Romney refused to answer questions.


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    #4463
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users Posts: 39,437 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    rossie1977 wrote: »
    Yes we saw that when the MSNBC reporter tried to interview any Republican senator the other day and not one would talk to her.

    Republicans one and all are still behind Trump, even Romney refused to answer questions.

    They didn't exactly sound like they were fully behind him bar ted Cruz who after all trump said about his wife and father still supports trump for some reason.


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    #4464
    StringerBell
    Registered Users Posts: 14,019 ✭✭✭✭StringerBell


    rossie1977 wrote: »
    Yes we saw that when the MSNBC reporter tried to interview any Republican senator the other day and not one would talk to her.

    Republicans one and all are still behind Trump, even Romney refused to answer questions.

    That's the most amusing thing about Romney, Romney who voted to impeach, and remove the president for being unfit for office, isn't sure if he will be supporting him in November. It would almost make you laugh.

    "People say ‘go with the flow’ but do you know what goes with the flow? Dead fish."



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    #4465
    Tell me how
    Registered Users Posts: 21,517 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    StringerBell wrote: »
    That's the most amusing thing about Romney, Romney who voted to impeach, and remove the president for being unfit for office, isn't sure if he will be supporting him in November. It would almost make you laugh.

    Could Romney be acting on big picture grounds?

    If he were to state that he was not going to support Trump now, other GOP moderates (as much as they exist), might follow leading to a situation where the election might be all but a formality for a Biden win.

    If that becomes clear in June, July, what is Trump going to do in the intervening months if he feels his 2nd term is being stolen from him.

    I just typed there that he might incite civil war and I deleted it because it seems just too bizarre to say about a US President in 2020, but, look at where we are.


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    #4466
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,113 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Powell voted for Clinton in 2016 and is now endorsing Biden;
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/07/colin-powell-endorses-joe-biden-for-us-president


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    #4467
    The Phantom Jipper
    Registered Users Posts: 879 ✭✭✭The Phantom Jipper


    Hopefully the likes of Romney and Bush are waiting until September or October to endorse, for maximum impact.


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    #4468
    eire4
    Registered Users Posts: 6,626 ✭✭✭eire4


    Tell me how wrote: »
    Could Romney be acting on big picture grounds?

    If he were to state that he was not going to support Trump now, other GOP moderates (as much as they exist), might follow leading to a situation where the election might be all but a formality for a Biden win.

    If that becomes clear in June, July, what is Trump going to do in the intervening months if he feels his 2nd term is being stolen from him.

    I just typed there that he might incite civil war and I deleted it because it seems just too bizarre to say about a US President in 2020, but, look at where we are.

    I hate to say it but if it is close to November and it is clear he will not win it is certain IMHO the President is not just going to accept that and is liable to do anything at that point and inciting violence of one sort or another seems very likely given his behaviour to date and especially recently.


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    #4469
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,113 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Well, he was hoping the protests would turn violent, to fulfil his 'Law and Order', deflect from Covid 19 play.
    He just got that wrong, too.


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    #4470
    serfboard
    Registered Users Posts: 4,675 ✭✭✭serfboard


    Tell me how wrote: »
    GOP moderates
    No such thing.

    There was at one time, but that time is long gone.


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    #4471
    rossie1977
    Registered Users Posts: 11,341 ✭✭✭✭rossie1977


    Biden leading nationally by 14 points on latest CNN poll.

    No doubt if election was held right now Biden would win and probably with bit to spare. Things could change by November


This discussion has been closed.
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