Storm Dennis Please read Mod Note in OP

pad199207 · 14-02-2020 7:51pm

https://twitter.com/aliciambentley/status/1228382807992537094?s=21

aisling86 · 14-02-2020 8:05pm

It's not often the hurricane hunters base themselves out of shannon!

Reckless Abandonment · 14-02-2020 8:35pm

aisling86 wrote: »

It's not often the hurricane hunters base themselves out of shannon!

Is Kermit with them..

that frog gets around

Carol25 · 14-02-2020 8:51pm

Anyone want to hazard a guess as to the warning levels expected for Sunday? Orange for west, and yellow elsewhere? Or if not the warning level, how severe are the gusts expected to be.

Darwin · 14-02-2020 9:00pm

Try several sites and take the average figure for your location (e.g. try windy.com, put in your location and check the different models shown along the bottom to get a rough idea). I'm guessing Orange for most Western coastal counties, Yellow inland. Might get very gusty like last weekend in any convective showers.

Meteorite58 · 14-02-2020 9:39pm

ECM showing Southern counties exceeding yellow warning level tomorrow for a time, showing gusting 110- 120 km/h during the frontal passage.

Is the ECM overdoing the wind speeds, seems to be off kilter for awhile, unusual to see it showing the strongest winds, the odd one out atm.

ICON showing some gusts for a time of 110 to 120km/h , again in S and SE counties but tends to slightly over do it.

ECM and ICON just seem to be too high compared to the Hi Res models.

AROME just up to around 90 km/h at tops overland, bit more perhaps on the coasts but nothing severe.

WRF similar to the ARPEGE keeping strongest winds gusting up to about 100 km/h around the coasts and gusting up to 90 km/h overland with a few pockets inland of up 100 km/h in the W and NW.

So on balance would be inclined at this stage to stick with ARPEGE / WRF

Sunday ECM and ARPEGE is showing it a bit less windy than previous runs. Looks like gusting 100 to 110 on coasts from Kerry to Clare and 110 to 120 km/h from Galway to Donegal and gusts penetrating further inland in the W and NW. Generally looks like gusting 80 to 100 km/h overland. Maybe touching Orange warning in the W.

Might get up around 90 - 100 km/h along S coastal fringes.

For the E looks like gusting 80 to 90 km/h

All just my opinion , and trying to refine my very armature skill of forecasting :pac: !

Meteorite58 · 14-02-2020 10:03pm

Thunderstorm possibility running up along the SW, W coasts tomorrow, lot of shear available, might get a few inland . Sunday a lot of potential around our coasts with cold air aloft and reasonable shear.

Oscar Bravo · 14-02-2020 10:06pm

Also a mention of embedded thunderstorms from Met Eireann

Turning wet and very windy on Saturday with some severe gusts. Outbreaks of heavy rain will extend nationwide during the morning accompanied by gale force southerly winds. The rain will be squally at times with a risk of embedded thunderstorms. Localised flooding is expected with some coastal overtopping along the Atlantic seaboard. Highest temperatures of 9 to 12 degrees.

Oscar Bravo · 14-02-2020 10:29pm

Knock airport TAF forecasting gusts up to 55 knots tomorrow between midday and 3pm in moderate rain. Miserable Saturday ahead

TEMPO 1512/1515 22025G55KT 1200 RA BKN004 OVC008

mickger844posts · 14-02-2020 10:59pm

aisling86 wrote: »

It's not often the hurricane hunters base themselves out of shannon!

She did a test flight on Wednesday and did a number of laps around Waterford at 9000ft. Very cool to see and hear it in the flesh. A very rare bird on this side of the Atlantic.
I would imagine they will make a trip into Storm Dennis in the next few days.

antodeco · 14-02-2020 11:10pm

Guys, thanks for all the explanations on the speed of sound etc. I loved the travelator analogy!

Oscar Bravo · 14-02-2020 11:17pm

NOAA42(Hurricane Hunters) are regular visitors to Shannon.The aircraft is N42RF which was built in 1975 .This year is the 4th in a row they are based at Shannon from the end of January for 3 or 4 weeks.

Gaoth Laidir · 14-02-2020 11:44pm

The Harmonie has Dennis getting down to "only" 920 hPa and stays at that for 3 hours (18Z-21Z) tomorrow evening. I think this talk of 915 or lower is a little sensationalist, but it remains to be seen how low it gets. Closer to home it will be another windy weekend but nothing more than we've had so far (except possibly for the far north Sunday night, when we may see Malin Head steal the show).

Meteorite58 · 15-02-2020 12:52am

ARPEGE 18Z showing stronger winds for Sunday on this run ( a lot stronger in fact ). Looks like going to Orange warning territory for counties from Kerry to around Mayo or Sligo perhaps , for a few hours anyway and then returning to yellow . Looks increasingly windy across the country also, high end yellow , wouldn't take too much more to make it Orange for a few counties across the center of the country.

ICON up on the latest run also

WRF stronger looking along Western counties for a time tomorrow but a way lower for Sunday, think this is an outlier for Sunday.

Meteorite58 · 15-02-2020 1:12am

The long trailing cold front for Saturday and second chart showing how far away the Storm center is but such a large wind field, the 50/55 kts barbs aimed at the west coasts would correspond with the maps above.

Gaoth Laidir · 15-02-2020 1:21am

The iceberg extent (red patterned boundary) is down as far south as 45N in those NWS charts above. Almost as far south as Northern Spain.

The UKMO are going with Dennis at 920 hPa at 18Z tomorrow. At that point things should be relatively improved here, with that front clearing the southeast and a slacker gradient behind it.

Meteorite58 · 15-02-2020 1:22am

Some rainfall totals. Could be very heavy along Southern counties.

Just a rough guide.

Neddyusa · 15-02-2020 1:51am

Meteorite58 wrote: »

The long trailing cold front for Saturday and second chart showing how far away the Storm center is but such a large wind field, the 50/55 kts barbs aimed at the west coasts would correspond with the maps above.

Ah here - that cold front is just ridiculous!
Stretching all the way from Cancun to the Outer Hebridies uninterupted...anyone see a front like that on a map before?!

Gaoth Laidir · 15-02-2020 1:52am

Surface winds around today's Iceland low (not Dennis) were up around 70 knots at 4 am Friday, maybe higher as these winds can be understated at high speeds.

Hoboo · 15-02-2020 1:57am

How is Sunday looking on the east coast? Is the storm still around? Apologies if general questions aren't allowed.

Graces7 · 15-02-2020 4:34am

Woken by loud wind around 1 am out here. Raging.

West Mayo; coastal waters.

keepalive213 · 15-02-2020 4:42am

Very windy and wet here now, id guess at over 60mph, Atlantic coast Mayo. Road into town is closed in the morning in case another bit falls into the sea.

Graces7 · 15-02-2020 4:59am

keepalive213 wrote: »

Very windy and wet here now, id guess at over 60mph, Atlantic coast Mayo. Road into town is closed in the morning in case another bit falls into the sea.

Thanks. Wilder and louder out here.

West Mayo ; coastal waters offshore