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Storm Ciara - Strong Winds & Potential Snow **TECHNICAL DISCUSSION**

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13567…36

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    #62
    Snow angel
    Registered Users Posts: 61 ✭✭Snow angel


    Asitis2019 wrote: »
    Here is the official forecast for ME today

    The early days of next week are likely to remain very unsettled, with generally strong winds, and potentially stormy conditions at times along with high seas. There will be spells of heavy rain interspaced with cold showery conditions, some of the showers turning wintry at times and some possibly with hail and thunder. Temperatures are likely to remain below average early next week with some overnight frosts expected also.

    So, in summary:
    - A bit of wind
    - A bit of rain
    - A bit of sleet on high ground

    Normal February conditions. The ones that are trolling are the ones spouting this nonsense.

    If you don’t wish to discuss weather please go elsewhere.


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    #63
    Asitis2019
    Closed Accounts Posts: 296 ✭✭Asitis2019


    Snow angel wrote: »
    If you don’t wish to discuss weather please go elsewhere.

    But I do....however, I deal in the truth...and I truly feel that this is pure trolling on their part. Mark my words snow angel your hopes will be dashed. Remember these words - the downgrade and the U-turn will come. It always does.


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    #64
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,876 ✭✭✭pauldry


    You're right. Now go away


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    #65
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,677 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    Asitis2019 wrote: »
    But I do....however, I deal in the truth...and I truly feel that this is pure trolling on their part. Mark my words snow angel your hopes will be dashed. Remember these words - the downgrade and the U-turn will come. It always does.

    you're most likely right, but let us just read the charts and see what they are saying since none of us can actually predict the future and we just base it off what we see :) If it downgrades as had happened, you can be sure we post the downgrades and work with those models then. Obviously when something interesting is showing on the weather people will be hyped in the weather forum.


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    #66
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    The 12Z ECM has lower winds now associated with Ciara on Sunday. The 100-metre chart from previous runs was showing a lot more gold (Force 12) south of the low and along the Muster coast, but that's gone now. This chart gives an idea of what gust will be likely as it has been found that the 10-metre gusts are very strongly correlated to the 140-metre mean speed. I would add a few knots to the charts below to account for the extra 40 metres, so gusts to about 60 knots are likely along west coasts. It won't be the strength but more the longevity of winds over the next week that will be the feature.

    Also, Monday and Tuesday still on for snow. The very strong westerly wind tipping the balance and limiting modification over the ocean. 850 temperatures below -20 °C coming out of the Labrador Sea only warming about 12-13 degrees on the way here, keeping thickness on the right side of marginal. I think those two days may prove to be more notable for many than Ciara itself.

    ecm0125_nat_100uv_mslp_2020020612_066.jpg

    ecm0125_nat_100uv_mslp_2020020612_072.jpg

    ecm0125_nat_4panel1_2020020612_120.png


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    #67
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,813 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Asitis2019 wrote: »
    But I do....however, I deal in the truth...and I truly feel that this is pure trolling on their part. Mark my words snow angel your hopes will be dashed. Remember these words - the downgrade and the U-turn will come. It always does.


    Mod Note: Asitis see post https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112466707&postcount=60


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    #68
    Lyan
    Registered Users Posts: 220 ✭✭Lyan


    This is the weather forum. For the discussion of weather and such. Are you suggesting the weather shouldn't be discussed here?


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    #69
    Asitis2019
    Closed Accounts Posts: 296 ✭✭Asitis2019


    Lyan wrote: »
    This is the weather forum. For the discussion of weather and such. Are you suggesting the weather shouldn't be discussed here?

    I'm suggesting, very strongly, that people cast severe doubt over these amateur forecasters prognosticating that there will be snow. The highest likelihood eventuality is that there will be zero snow for most people.

    These posters seem to gain a perverse satisfaction in making these predictions, knowing full well that the probability of the materializing is close to zero

    I would pay attention to these prognostications if they provided the probabilities. Instead probabilities are substituted by subjective interpretations that are deeply biased.

    I hope this clarifies matters -I care only for people not being misguided by posters who predict massive snowstorms and blizzards every two weeks.


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    #70
    froog
    Registered Users Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    Asitis2019 wrote: »
    Will you go wan now and get out of the park ---

    Summary - a bit of wind, rain, and a few isolated snowflakes in those far hills.

    I'm absolutely sick of seeing these warnings - they mean nothing, and I pay not attention to them.

    you know this is the weather forum right?


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    #71
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,813 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Mod Note : Asitis2019 . You have recieved a warning, you been requested to move on ,told that you made your point, and told if you disagree do not post here, now you are trolling and goading for a negative response .

    Do not post in this thread again


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    #72
    nthclare
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,316 ✭✭✭nthclare


    Question

    What is an upper lower temperature, can someone explain this in layman's terms?

    Thanks in advance.


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    #73
    Monkeynut
    Registered Users Posts: 589 ✭✭✭Monkeynut


    Importantly how is this storm pronounced. The traditional Irish way of saying Ciara. Keeer rah

    Or the more modern way of American influence. Si air a.

    Will not sleep till I find out.


    But really how is the east looking. It's only Thursday I know, so I'd say we won't know best obviously till Saturdays runs. But anyway I'll still ask for people's own opinions on it.

    Thanks


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    #74
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,813 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Impressive rainfall totals up to Sunday night, coming in to spring tides over the weekend and into next week. Lot of run off and continuing very strong on shore winds into Mon with very high seas leading to possibility of coastal flooding.

    arpegeuk-25-79-0_ywr9.png

    nmmuk-25-72-0_fwr4.png

    hDvzft8.png

    JVGx5JH.jpg

    anim_egs5.gif


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    #75
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,813 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ARPEGE coming in to the more reliable time frame now for this model.

    ECM still looks the strongest winds gusting up around 110 to 120 km/h in places overland, widespread gusting to 100km/h, up to 120 - 130 km/h on coasts, ICON dropped wind speeds down a bit in the latest run. American still gusting 100 to 110Km/h overland.

    anim_rfz1.gif

    arpegeuk-52-76-0_ctc0.png

    iconeu_uk1-52-76-0_hdy1.png


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    #76
    tipperaryboy
    Registered Users Posts: 945 ✭✭✭tipperaryboy


    Likely to have any affect on Saturday Dublin flights?


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    #77
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Forecasts strongest gusts comparison between the 00z run and the more recent 12z run for Sunday morning. Defo a slight decline but track for now seems stable:

    00z
    RwcrVWW.png

    12z
    mPkwNPn.png

    Worth keeping in mind that the ECMWF has a habit of over bulling wind gust speed potential. The GFS, so far, seem to be the more conservative global model regarding these so it will be interesting to see which one ends up being closer to the ole mark.

    New Moon



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    #78
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,813 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Center a good bit further North on the latest run, can compare against yesterdays run. The models in general are not showing the winds in the high intensity i.e. 120 to 140 km/h as they were showing on earlier runs, but still a very windy day with prolonged strong winds for many.

    Will it continue to drift me North ? They often do but still a bit away yet for corrections either way.

    WuwrT7u.png

    gBbl7y3.png

    GBU42ZC.png

    ECU1-72_ugf2.GIF

    ECU1-96_rmg8.GIF


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    #79
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Meteorite58 wrote: »
    Center a good bit further North on the latest run, can compare against yesterdays run. The models in general are not showing the winds in the high intensity i.e. 120 to 140 km/h as they were showing on earlier runs, but still a very windy day with prolonged strong winds for many.
    Still many options on the table this evening, but less spread than earlier runs so things are very slowly being nailed down.

    mEHxcig.png

    New Moon



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    #80
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Really hate when we see a little something of interest like this on the models being so far out. We still have 3 days to till Sunday which is a lifetime in model watching, and 3 days of anticipating the inevitable downgrades with each consecutive run... before they are even ran. Sure, it keeps us on our toes, but I'm getting to the stage now where I don't want to be on my toes. I want to put my feet up.

    New Moon



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    #81
    Donegal Storm
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Doesn't look like anything too noteworthy for me over the next few days, the longevity of the wet and windy weather is unusual but nothing particularly severe or interesting in the forecast. Expecting plenty of wind, rain and hail around here though so will certainly be a case of batten down the hatches, hopefully a few rumbles but thunder's been rarer than hens teeth in recent winters


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    #82
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,813 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM at this early stage showing thunderstorm potential giving very heavy bursts of squally rain on Sunday.


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    #83
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,490 ✭✭✭typhoony


    I see the lad from Weather Alerts Ireland is posting sensational stuff again on FB. Saying we've have an equivalent to a CAT2 hurricane arriving in Ireland. I think he needs to brush up on his wind speed comparisons, let alone the difference between sustained hurricane winds and gust speeds that we normally talk about, he's a muppet


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    #84
    Cork Boy 53
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 ✭✭✭Cork Boy 53


    Monkeynut wrote: »
    Importantly how is this storm pronounced. The traditional Irish way of saying Ciara. Keeer rah

    Or the more modern way of American influence. Si air a.

    Will not sleep till I find out.


    It`s the first option, Keeer rah to use your spelling. Sleep soundly now.


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    #85
    hawkwing
    Registered Users Posts: 1,803 ✭✭✭hawkwing


    We will be watching weather porn for the next 2 weeks,titled "Wet,Wild and Raw" starring Ciara "Stormy" Daniels initially.:o It's free to air too.


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    #86
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    What a mess of a chart. Such a wide area of the NE Atlantic under very low pressure. High over Iberia means the NAO will be skyrocketing positive numbers.

    ukmo_nat_fax_2020020612_072.png

    I see that deep low is still on for between Iceland and Greenland tomorrow night. Now forecast to be around 933 hPa, but they had it down to 928 hPa earlier in the week.

    ukmo_nat_fax_2020020612_036.png


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    #87
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,442 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Keep an eye on this system Monday

    fax96s.gif?0

    This has snow potential for us.


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    #88
    Larbre34
    Registered Users Posts: 23,796 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Keep an eye on this system Monday

    fax96s.gif?0

    This has snow potential for us.

    You're not making allowance for modification in air mass.

    I see treacherous conditions with mountain blizzards but cold rain and stinging winds at all other levels for a few days, maybe some night time sleetyness.


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    #89
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    nthclare wrote: »
    Question

    What is an upper lower temperature, can someone explain this in layman's terms?

    Thanks in advance.

    Generally, "upper" temperatures refered to here are the temperature at the 850 hPa level (around 1200-1500 m above sea level). The temperature at this level gives an idea of how cold the airmass is and how likely snow will be, but there's a lot more to it than that. See here for more details.


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    #90
    kingshankly
    Registered Users Posts: 7,528 ✭✭✭kingshankly


    I generally judge the seriousness of the storm by the amount of pages on the topic and with only 6 pages for the Moment things probably not going to get too bad


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    #91
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,876 ✭✭✭pauldry


    It's not here yet. Even 3 days of gusts of 100kph will cause damage due to longevity.


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