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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Autumn 2019 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Well going by the ECM Weds is just a practice run for sleet/ snow forecasting. Sat looks a possibility also although a fair amount of uncertainty still . ECM currently showing the passage of a front moving into cold airs. Could be a very wintry day for large parts of the country. Temperatures at the moment look colder on Sat with large areas less than 5C and lower for much of the day.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Charts showing very cold Fri night into Sat and Sat day.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Looking very windy in the N and NE overnight into early morning and windy along the E and SE for a time early morning.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM more or less dropped the widespread sleet / snow for Sat but ICON now showing it and more so in the Western half of the country . ARPEGE showing rain / sleet in parts of the country. Bit to go yet.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Models backed off anything wintry on Sat, and lessened the amount of rainfall with the slow approaching weakened occluded front mostly keeping the rain on the Western half of the country, amounts small.

    Fri night into Sat morning very cold for large parts of the country with a sharp frost.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Cloud clearing all the time here in Kerry, swept away by a nice fresh NNE'ly breeze. Temperature watch tonight , a proper widespread freeze for most under clear skies. Looks fairly dry for the rest of the day apart from a few light showers maybe in Northern counties. Winds slacking off later today.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    Freezing,west Mayo,by the coast, a rare occurance,even more so,so early in the night.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM showing some heavy rain around Weds into Thurs for the SE and along Southern fringes. Showing very high totals for the SE .

    Showing very high totals for the SE up to next Sunday but that chart is better in the FI thread for now.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM backed off a bit from the high totals in the SE but other models showing a lot of precipitation by Sat /Sun ( a bit over the 120hrs )

    Other models might moderate the amounts in the next few runs like the ECM ?

    LP's certainly in charge and after the weekend also.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Slow moving system producing a lot of rainfall in S and SE counties, Yellow warnings in place up to Thurs 12.00 but rainfall doesn't stop there.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Waterford seems to be in the cross hairs for the heaviest rainfall over the coming days.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,095 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Waterford seems to be in the cross hairs for the heaviest rainfall over the coming days.

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    The good old Naas rain shadow


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM extending the highest rainfall to Watrford, Kilkenny and Tipperary .

    Has increased the amounts up to early Fri morning. Not too much showing up for Fri or Sat atm until a wet day again on Sunday.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ARPEGE Accumulated rainfall until early Saturday. 100mm ???

    Showing heavy rain now on Fri as well but Sat rain clearing early in the S.

    Will check it against the 18Z run out later.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM has been going with a small deep area of LP for next Tues / Weds producing strong winds briefly somewhere around the SE /E possibly late Tues /Early Weds. Showing it mainly strong winds along coastal areas and not transferring far inland. Other models haven't developed it as deep as this. One to keep an eye on to see if anything comes of this.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM has the deep Low now for Tuesday daytime producing strong winds along the S /SE coast for a time on this run . ECM out on it's own with track and intensity although the other models starting to show various LP's but not as strong and tracks all over the place atm. On the current run doesn't transfer strong winds far inland apart from S and SE coastal counties. Could produce a good shot of rain but this track and intensity is not resolved by any means.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The models probably all over the place with this Low on Tues as it seems to be possibly comprised from the remnants of Tropical Storm Sebastian . Seems to take a track which gets swept up along by the jet and possibly takes a left exit from the jet just as it reaches the S coast as shown by the ECM . HWRF showing it not quite making it this far which is a similar track taken by the UKMO. Could be some thunderstorm activity with this and could be a bit milder and more humid than of late for a time .This just got more interesting.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    NHC saying ' Every aspect of the forecast remains highly uncertain. The models
    have been extremely inconsistent in forecasting Sebastien, with the
    guidance varying drastically from run to run and with unusually
    large spread in each forecast. The latest indications are that
    Sebastien will move quickly northeastward with little change in
    strength for the next few days before it eventually opens into a
    trough around the time it nears the Azores in a couple of days.
    Simulated satellite imagery suggests that the cyclone will still
    produce enough deep convection to be classified as a tropical storm
    through Sunday, though it could become post-tropical before it
    reaches the Azores. Given the elongated nature of Sebastien's
    circulation and its fast forward speed, it could also open into a
    trough and dissipate at any time.

    It is not currently clear if Sebastien will reach the Azores as a
    tropical storm. Regardless of its status, Sebastien or its remnants
    could bring gusty winds and rain to the Azores beginning Sunday.
    Please see products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea
    and the Atmosphere (IPMA) for more information.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 23/1500Z 30.4N 47.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
    12H 24/0000Z 32.1N 44.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
    24H 24/1200Z 34.4N 40.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
    36H 25/0000Z 36.8N 34.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
    48H 25/1200Z 39.3N 26.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    72H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Zelinsky



    So great deal in uncertainty if the remnants will have much energy left and how it gets absorbed and what track it takes etc etc

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM has kept the system off the S coasts on the latest run, windy along the SW / S for a time on this run but currently not showing very strong winds. Following the track shown by the UKMO first yesterday . ECM drops the pressure to 965 hPa and UKMO to 959 hPa .Also not showing the high rainfall totals like yesterday .

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    ICON brings the Low closer to the SW before doing a good old pirouette and racing off towards the UK. GFS similar to the two main models, ARPEGE seems to be struggling with this one.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Currently does not look like having any impact of note on Ireland, worth keeping an eye on it to see if there are any surprises....


    NHC The northeastward acceleration continues, with Sebastian moving
    050/29 kt. Additional acceleration is expected during the next 24
    hours, with the new NHC track forecast a little faster than the
    previous iteration and generally a blend of the TVCN and HCCA
    consensus aids. No forecast points are provided starting at 72
    hours since by that time Sebastien is expected to have merged with
    another weather system southwest of Ireland and the United Kingdom.
    This larger complex system could bring gusty winds and heavy rains
    to portions of western Europe within the next few days.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 24/0900Z 36.0N 40.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
    12H 24/1800Z 38.5N 34.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
    24H 25/0600Z 42.1N 26.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    36H 25/1800Z 46.2N 17.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    48H 26/0600Z 50.0N 11.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    72H 27/0600Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM showing remnants of Sebastian merging with the larger system.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,877 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Time for a new thread I think on Ex Tropical storm Sebastian, a potential major risk for the South


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Models still differ a bit in track and timing but aligning more ,in general they dont show severe winds at this stage ,gusting 80 to 90 km/h on coasts and a big spread on rainfall amounts along the S and SE, Met Eireann mentioning risk of flooding in the S on Tues . ICON showing Kerry getting a lot of rain. ECM also showing thunderstorm activity moving into the SW /S early Tues morning.

    From watching this over the last few days and from how it is evolving I would think that it could get up to a yellow wind warning on some coastal areas and could get to a yellow warning for rainfall.

    Latest ARPEGE 18Z looking very like ICON now for wind and rainfall. Need to keep an eye on Kerry's rainfall, a lot could fall on the mountains.


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