Recession predictions

riddles · 25-10-2020 10:28am

A post Covid working from home world will surely hammer service industry jobs. A multi National I know of has begun the process of listing offices that will be closed permanently, some have 700 people plus. Same company spends a billion plus on travel a year. No way business travel will return to even close to where it was before Covid. This company is going from strength to strength and is taking this approach.

Wanderer78 · 25-10-2020 10:53am

riddles wrote: »

A post Covid working from home world will surely hammer service industry jobs. A multi National I know of has begun the process of listing offices that will be closed permanently, some have 700 people plus. Same company spends a billion plus on travel a year. No way business travel will return to even close to where it was before Covid. This company is going from strength to strength and is taking this approach.

fair play to them, assume they ll be providing their work at home workers with free electricity, broadband, heating etc etc?

snotboogie · 25-10-2020 12:18pm

riddles wrote: »

A post Covid working from home world will surely hammer service industry jobs. A multi National I know of has begun the process of listing offices that will be closed permanently, some have 700 people plus. Same company spends a billion plus on travel a year. No way business travel will return to even close to where it was before Covid. This company is going from strength to strength and is taking this approach.

If a company is closing huge amounts of office space, yet retaining all the staff from home, a lot of those staff are going to need to visit an opperational office a few times per year. A lot of the 700 staff from your example will have never traveled and while the top 50 going on 20-30 business trips per year will come to an end, you will see 400 - 600 of the 700 being required to visit the head office once or twice per year. I don't think business travel is over. It will just be different.

Wanderer78 · 25-10-2020 12:20pm

snotboogie wrote: »

If a company is closing huge amounts of office space, yet retaining all the staff from home, a lot of those staff are going to need to visit an opperational office a few times per year. A lot of the 700 staff from your example will have never traveled and while the top 50 going on 20-30 business trips per year will come to an end, you will see 400 - 600 of the 700 being required to visit the head office once or twice per year. I don't think business travel is over. It will just be different.

...so they ll also be compensated for needing to travel to these meetings, tis all looking good for these folks!

JJJackal · 25-10-2020 12:24pm

I heard that big companies are consolidating office space

For example a big multinational I heard off has 4 offices in Dublin

2 can accommodate 700 people
2 about 250

They are closing 250*2 office spaces. Now they have negotiated larger office spaces at lower rent with the landlords that are renting them the 2 offices for 700 people! will be far more efficient and more profit at lower rent

Wanderer78 · 25-10-2020 12:25pm

JJJackal wrote: »

I heard that big companies are consolidating office space

For example a big multinational I heard off has 4 offices in Dublin

2 can accommodate 700 people
2 about 250

They are closing 250*2 office spaces. Now they have negotiated larger office spaces at lower rent with the landlords that are renting them the 2 offices for 700 people! will be far more efficient and more profit at lower rent

...trickle down is just fantastic!

road_high · 25-10-2020 12:27pm

JJJackal wrote: »

I heard that big companies are consolidating office space

For example a big multinational I heard off has 4 offices in Dublin

2 can accommodate 700 people
2 about 250

They are closing 250*2 office spaces. Now they have negotiated larger office spaces at lower rent with the landlords that are renting them the 2 offices for 700 people! will be far more efficient and more profit at lower rent

These will all feed through down into the construction and supply sectors- less offices equals less demand for all kinds of things

JJJackal · 25-10-2020 3:37pm

road_high wrote: »

These will all feed through down into the construction and supply sectors- less offices equals less demand for all kinds of things

Moving from 2 small offices into your 2 bigger ones which you then expand to accommodate the 500 staff from the smaller ones- does not directly equate to more office space available

ExMachina1000 · 28-10-2020 11:38pm

road_high wrote: »

These will all feed through down into the construction and supply sectors- less offices equals less demand for all kinds of things

Convenience shops, cafes, bars, restaurants, petrol stations, office catering, office cleaning,
maintenance companies would be a few off the top of my head who would lose out from reduced footfall in a wfh environment.

They all have staff and their suppliers who would see less sales also have staff.

Maybe also taxis, vehicle repair shops(less driving), clothes shops ( no or less office wardrobe needed).

I'm sure there are many more

It all feeds in to the one pot and has knock on effects throughout the economy.

The real winners in a global wfh environment will be the like of Amazon.com

Wanderer78 · 29-10-2020 7:31am

ExMachina1000 wrote:

The real winners in a global wfh environment will be the like of Amazon.com

I truly can't wait for my future warehouse job with them, it's gonna be great!

patnor1011 · 29-10-2020 7:50am

Inflation is already here it is just hidden from plain view. Stuff becoming smaller and lighter is not very noticeable but it is here. Some things becoming harder to get.

In my opinion we will see more of it and some serious and visible cracks start to appear after US elections no matter the outcome. In other words - pretty soon.
It's not going to be nice.

Wanderer78 · 29-10-2020 8:08am

patnor1011 wrote:

Inflation is already here it is just hidden from plain view. Stuff becoming smaller and lighter is not very noticeable but it is here. Some things becoming harder to get.

Economist pippa malmgren has noted this also, I do think both of you are somewhat correct. I think the supply issues are simply just that, producers have been struggling to get certain things out the door, over the last few months, but ultimately, supply chains have largely been unaffected in many ways. Again, it seems deflation is the main concern, so keep printing the money folks, as velocity is our enemy now, and increasing the money supply, is the only way of dealing with that one.

patnor1011 · 29-10-2020 8:26am

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Economist pippa malmgren has noted this also, I do think both of you are somewhat correct. I think the supply issues are simply just that, producers have been struggling to get certain things out the door, over the last few months, but ultimately, supply chains have largely been unaffected in many ways. Again, it seems deflation is the main concern, so keep printing the money folks, as velocity is our enemy now, and increasing the money supply, is the only way of dealing with that one.

There are risks with this approach as there is and will be more money competing for less produce or services. That is recipe for the opposite of deflation.

Wanderer78 · 29-10-2020 9:54am

patnor1011 wrote: »

There are risks with this approach as there is and will be more money competing for less produce or services. That is recipe for the opposite of deflation.

again, the world is currently experiencing largely minor issues regarding supplies of goods and services, its a diminishing money supply, and particularly the rapid reduction in the velocity of money in our economies is truly the problem right now, and increasing the money supply, particularly via our public institutions, i.e. public debt, is the best way to do this. once again, central banks have been rapidly increasing the money supply since 08, and have been largely unable to create inflation, in fact, we re currently experiencing deflation

Timing belt · 29-10-2020 4:51pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

again, the world is currently experiencing largely minor issues regarding supplies of goods and services, its a diminishing money supply, and particularly the rapid reduction in the velocity of money in our economies is truly the problem right now, and increasing the money supply, particularly via our public institutions, i.e. public debt, is the best way to do this. once again, central banks have been rapidly increasing the money supply since 08, and have been largely unable to create inflation, in fact, we re currently experiencing deflation

The increase in the money supply since 08 went into the finance sector to rebuild balance sheets and not much of it got into the real economy. This time around the increase in money supply is getting to the wider economy via gov spending so we should see inflation. At the moment it is masked by low oil prices and a overvalued euro.

KyussB · 29-10-2020 5:19pm

Outside of special circumstances (e.g. a supply shock), such inflation doesn't happen until Full-Output/Maximum-GDP/Full-Employment.

brisan · 29-10-2020 7:16pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

More like a realist, we can't keep encouraging this precariousness, it's lethal for society and our economy, it's also causing serious issues with our pension funds, so its actually affecting us all

Thank God we ve an accommodation back up plan in place, if such a situation of repossessions takes place! I wonder does our current 'back up plan' cost the tax payers much, hardly!

Creditors hardly play any part in all of this, do they!

And yet creditors get abuse when they refuse mortgages to people on pandemic payments

brisan · 29-10-2020 7:21pm

Darc19 wrote: »

Dublin city center is the only area that has seen a continued fall off.

Check any retail park in the country on a Tuesday - busy

Check the main streets of the bigger towns (and some small towns) - busy

Check out the larger towns - busy.

A family member is in retail, they are expecting their best ever year. She said it's the same for others in her area of retail unless they are in Dublin city center.

Dundrum, Liffey Valley, blanchardstown and swords all reporting near normal sales too.

And yet every night we se retailers on the TV saying they are on their knees
Blanchardstown SC is up for sale ,why ?
I would say a shortfall in rental income is a major factor

brisan · 29-10-2020 7:31pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

I'd like to think the majority also doesn't want this either, watching our neighbours tearing themselves apart is disturbing to watch, but we re following a similar path, it's time for us to move in a different direction, and quickly. These younger voters are already showing their willingness to go elsewhere with their votes, it's up to ffg to respond now, and if they don't.......

Oh I hear you about divorce and separation, I know a couple of people in this situation, what a bloody mess, where more or less, everyone loses, just some lose more than others, and in my own experiences, males generally end up worse off there, but females also lose. I know a couple of people caught sharing with their ex! WTF!

Oh don't worry, it's looking like retirement is gonna be a disaster for most of us, pension funds don't look too healthy!

Again, we truly need to get over this fear of growing deficits, if we really want to move on from these train wrecks of ideologies, private debt is the big problem, and this is starting to resurface, again!

I am due to retire on a fairly good DB pension this year ( with a redundancy package thrown in )
i have 200k in AVCs and I am glad I stuck it all in a cash fund 2 years ago
Losing money every quarter ,not a lot but at least I know what I will have
i was going to leave it in an ARF but now I will take it as cash and suffer the tax hit of 40%
I don't like the way the markets are going and especially the property markets ,more so commercial ,retail office hotel etc

dhaughton99 · 29-10-2020 7:45pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

I truly can't wait for my future warehouse job with them, it's gonna be great!

Sorry but your mandated job will be to cycle to the IFSC and deliver crepes and coffees to the great and the good.

patnor1011 · 29-10-2020 11:06pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

again, the world is currently experiencing largely minor issues regarding supplies of goods and services, its a diminishing money supply, and particularly the rapid reduction in the velocity of money in our economies is truly the problem right now, and increasing the money supply, particularly via our public institutions, i.e. public debt, is the best way to do this. once again, central banks have been rapidly increasing the money supply since 08, and have been largely unable to create inflation, in fact, we re currently experiencing deflation

That I have to disagree with. A simple walk through shops will prove that cracks started to appear. Some stuff is already missing and what you hardly ever experienced before is a common sight now - empty spaces.
Services are pretty much decimated.

Diarmuid · 29-10-2020 11:14pm

brisan wrote: »

I am due to retire on a fairly good DB pension this year ( with a redundancy package thrown in )
i have 200k in AVCs and I am glad I stuck it all in a cash fund 2 years ago

That might be a sensible approach depending on your age and profile but the S&P500 has increased about 22% from this day 2 years ago. Cash has probably lost 2 %. I don't know if I'd be glad to give that up

KyussB · 30-10-2020 6:40am

Diarmuid wrote: »

That might be a sensible approach depending on your age and profile but the S&P500 has increased about 22% from this day 2 years ago. Cash has probably lost 2 %. I don't know if I'd be glad to give that up

Wile E. Coyote.

brisan · 30-10-2020 5:11pm

Diarmuid wrote: »

That might be a sensible approach depending on your age and profile but the S&P500 has increased about 22% from this day 2 years ago. Cash has probably lost 2 %. I don't know if I'd be glad to give that up

Hindsight is always 20 -20
Markets have gone up and down dramatically this year
We are in a managed fund with Irish Life so cannot pick and choose our shares to invest in ,hence I went cash
This year alone the ISEQ has gone from a high of 7300 approx. to a low of 4200 approx.
The s&p has gone from a high of 3500 to a low of 2200 this year
What if on the day I retired the ISEQ was at 4200 OR THE s&p at 2200

https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/stock-market?user=alexandr
https://tradingeconomics.com/spx:ind

brisan · 30-10-2020 5:15pm

Diarmuid wrote: »

That might be a sensible approach depending on your age and profile but the S&P500 has increased about 22% from this day 2 years ago. Cash has probably lost 2 %. I don't know if I'd be glad to give that up

oh I am 60 and retiring soon
Always the plan to go at 60-61
Redundancy was a not unexpected bonus

AndrewJRenko · 31-10-2020 7:09pm

patnor1011 wrote: »

That I have to disagree with. A simple walk through shops will prove that cracks started to appear. Some stuff is already missing and what you hardly ever experienced before is a common sight now - empty spaces.
Services are pretty much decimated.

What goods are missing and what services are decimated please?

Certainly, high end retail like the fashion stores in Dundrum TC are struggling a bit, but that's just the end of the market they are in.

Tea drinker · 01-11-2020 8:04pm

A few weeks I can't get horseradish sauce in Dunnes... there are some cleaners missing too, fluffy dusters appeared for one or 2 weeks in past 5 months. By and large there's nothing you can't do without, and I'm sure if I went on a jihad to get fluffy dusters in Dublin I'd find them somewhere... but OTOH you can't say some stuff isn't missing off the shelves.

Wanderer78 · 02-11-2020 7:35am

Tea drinker wrote:

A few weeks I can't get horseradish sauce in Dunnes... there are some cleaners missing too, fluffy dusters appeared for one or 2 weeks in past 5 months. By and large there's nothing you can't do without, and I'm sure if I went on a jihad to get fluffy dusters in Dublin I'd find them somewhere... but OTOH you can't say some stuff isn't missing off the shelves.

Oh theres no question things are missing, supply chains are all over the place at the moment, but we don't have serious supply issues, we still have a large over supply of certain stock

thomas 123 · 05-11-2020 3:50pm

Eamon O Cuiv talking about hyper inflation post covid due to borrowing.

saabsaab · 05-11-2020 7:30pm

Shopping in Dunnes I asked a suited employee (manager?) for a certain common foodstuff. He told me that there were shortages of it at the moment!

Recession predictions

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