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Winter 2019/2020 - General Discussion

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes




  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 24,647 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    SeaBreezes wrote: »

    Jeez a hour and 2 mins. Anyone got the TL DR version? :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Winter 2007-08 was very mild and wet, January among wettest on record. December had a settled spell mid-month that was quite prolonged. January opened with an easterly outbreak which brought snow to the northeast but this was temporary. February was a west-east split although mid-month tended to be settled for many. March and April were close to average for temperatures but featured quite cold snaps with snowfalls in both months. Most recent April snow I can recall here.
    Thanks for that recap Syran. Come to think of it, I do recall that all too brief easterly snap in early Jan '08. It did bring snow here too but like the NE, it was only temporary. May that year was especially beautiful.

    New Moon



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,676 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Thanks for that recap Syran. Come to think of it, I do recall that all too brief easterly snap in early Jan '08. It did bring snow here too but like the NE, it was only temporary. May that year was especially beautiful.

    That snowfall in January 2008 was fantastic but it was very short lived. I remember watching the radar and seeing a train of snow showers push across the Irish sea into Meath and Louth, in about 3 hours it dumped nearly 6 inches of snow, then the wind direction changed after midnight and the showers moved further north. From what I can remember Dunshaughlin was just inside the area getting pasted, while I think most of Dublin had nothing from that event. Mild air was back the next morning and snow didn't last all that long. It was also the first decent snowfall we had since December 2000.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Gonzo wrote: »
    That snowfall in January 2008 was fantastic but it was very short lived. I remember watching the radar and seeing a train of snow showers push across the Irish sea into Meath and Louth, in about 3 hours it dumped nearly 6 inches of snow, then the wind direction changed after midnight and the showers moved further north. From what I can remember Dunshaughlin was just inside the area getting pasted, while I think most of Dublin had nothing from that event. Mild air was back the next morning and snow didn't last all that long. It was also the first decent snowfall we had since December 2000.

    It was more of the frontal snow event here if I remember correctly. Lasted a few hours before turning back to rain as the warmer air moved in, though we could possibly be talking about 2 different events here. I remember May & June 2008 more vividly tbh. May was very sunny in that golden easterly type way with some thunder while June brought a pretty major thunderstorm event on the evening of the 21st.

    New Moon



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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    After last year, i am not taking too much heed of long range forecasts- unless there is one stating that there will be copious amounts of snow. Some people never learn:pac::

    In relation to the debate which cold spell was best, i would have to go with 2010 too, but March 2018 was special in its own way. It put to bed the notion that we can't get snowy cold after mid februrary. The only downside was even with temperature hovering at zero or below snow still melted.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,676 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    It put to bed the notion that we can't get snowy cold after mid februrary. The only downside was even with temperature hovering at zero or below snow still melted.

    That's why I much prefer a 2010 style event from late November to mid February at the latest. The snow of March 2018 was great, but once the snow stopped, the melting process was very fast, infact the snow was probably melting slightly most of the time, if the same event had happened in December or January, snow depths would have been even greater.


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,676 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tabnabs


    A notorious mountain pass in western Norway, from two days ago.

    kamera_edited-4.jpg?chk=5BF404


  • Registered Users Posts: 105 ✭✭Periscal


    img-20190905-161910.jpg

    We got to below freezing two nights in a row yesterday and day before. Also if ECMWF 0Z was to verify, then I would see mountains around me turning white very early this year. Fingers crossed for a good winter this year. Fortunately here in central Europe even in poor winters there will be weeks with some snow at least.

    If I had to compare Irish winters 2010 and 2018 I would definitely go with 2010, there is no better timing that 2010, there so much more atmosphere in December snow then any other months, I would even put 2009/10 ahead of March 2018 for the lovely frosty mornings and then more prolonged cold. March snow just doesn't hit the right feelings. I have experienced lot of March snow in Slovakia as kid and never appreciated it that much, it actually contributes a lot to elderly mortality having winter too long when organism is tired and actually need more sun and warm rather then snow and -10C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Seeing Lough Corrib completely frozen over in 2010 absolutely blew my mind.
    I witnessed a farmer walking on to an island about 300m from shore to tend to his cattle. He tied a load of empty 5l water drums just in case. Mad stuff.

    I have many bizarre memories of 2010. At that time I was renting up in the Blue Stacks in Donegal and was cut off for about six weeks in all. Just was unreal. Ice three inches deep on the road. It was not an easy time.

    No problems with deep annual snow in Orkney the decade I lived there. Just Donegal! boardsies saved the day in the end. It just was I think that people here are not used to such weather. Not helpful. A lot of older folk said the same. Oh one local priest went visiting on skis

    Here I am better equipped and better stocked and have not been offisland for the best part of a year now . Still longing to build a snowman before I die.

    They tell tales of having to dig snow out of the ferry in 2010 here.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,791 ✭✭✭JJJJNR


    Could this volcanic eruption have an effect on European weather.

    http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/rockyplanet/2019/06/22/big-blast-from-russian-volcano-raikoke/


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    I see that the media have started their annual cycle of hyping up the coldest winter in 50 years is coming except this time it's the Beast from the East returning. I find this year's release relatively interesting (although as always frustrating) as it's a bit different to other years. Recently, a study was released from University College London by Saunders, Lea and Smallwood titled "Long-Range Forecast for the North Atlantic Oscillation and UK Weather in January-February 2020". I will highlight some parts of it with my own research and discuss my opinions on the forecast.

    Firstly, they state the following quote:
    There is an 87% chance the NAO will be less than 1981-2010 mean and a 65% chance the CET will be colder than the 1981-2010 mean. Examination of data between 1953 and 2019 shows that nine of the ten years where these predictor fields (referring to solar and stratosphere cyclic signals) had the same sign and similar magnitude to that in summer 2019 were followed in January-February by a negative NAO and by a CET colder than climatology.

    87% chance of a -NAO to occur during January/February 2020 according to their teleconnections (which they go onto mention as monthly solar 10.7 cm flux data and monthly QBO data) based on Summer 2019. That's a very high chance I must say but keep in mind, that includes a 13% chance of -NAO not occurring which is still a significant chance in weather world in my opinion. They also state a 65% chance of the Central England Temperature (CET) being colder than the 1981-2010 which again is quite a high chance but that includes 35% chance of not being cold. I suspect this takes modern warming into account somewhat as well as -NAO winters not all being colder than average.

    When I did an analogue on +NAO summers last year with winters that followed, there was a very strong signal for the +NAO to continue into the winter. These summers included but not limited to 1983, 1979, 1967, 1994, 1976, 1972, 1996 and 2013. A much different signal this year with -NAO summers which include but again not limited to 2012, 1958, 2011, 2015, 2016, 2008, 1993, 2009, 1998, 1980, 1954, 2014, 1957, 2010 and 1962. One thing to notice here is the frequency of anomalous -NAO summers in the 21st century so far - feedback from arctic amplification perhaps. There is definitely more of a signal for a -NAO winter with a -NAO summer but it's not clear cut either as if anything is in weather! I'll go more in-depth with this at a latter point as a NAO update is in the works.

    The following table shows years with similar magnitude of solar flux and 50hPa QBO to Summer 2019 and the January/February NAO/CET values for those years. Looks to me that there is good correlation with these results and only 1975 was not cold (1966 average although even that had a cold Nov/Dec period). Also looks like that all the years had a westerly QBO in the April to June period preceding the winter which makes sense with 2019.

    LBu2VkO.png

    If you'd like to read the study for yourself, here's the link: http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/10080518/1/Saunders_Lea%20and%20Smallwood%20%282019%29.pdf

    I know I shouldn't be saying this but there is always some people believing the crap. There is nothing to suggest that the Beast from the East will be returning. An event like 2018 was very, very rare and only comparable with the likes of 1947 and 1982 or in terms of cold, 1956, 1987 or 1991. The study is merely suggesting the risk of colder than average temperatures in January/February 2020 with a -NAO.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,316 ✭✭✭nthclare


    I'd like a frosty calm winter like the one's we had in the 80's
    Maybe it was the smog that made them more crispy, I remember those cold evenings and the urban smell of coal fires etc


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,976 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    RE Sryan's post I was shocked to see that on Sky News, was expecting a bit more sense from them!


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 24,647 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    RE Sryan's post I was shocked to see that on Sky News, was expecting a bit more sense from them!

    Sky News have gone very tabloid-esque. Alot of click-bait and sensationalism all over their social media channels too.


  • Registered Users Posts: 820 ✭✭✭lapua20grain


    Loughc wrote: »
    Sky News have gone very tabloid-esque. Alot of click-bait and sensationalism all over their social media channels too.

    I was discussing this with my wife and I think it denigrates what Met Éireann and the Met Office do as people see these reports and think it is an official forecast when it is merely the likes of the Donegal postman or Ken Ring with their usual shoite. It also erodes any confidence that people have in forecasts and the warning system.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,426 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    There is plenty of talk on weather forum that my wife is a member of (polish),
    That eastern Europe to have a very hard early winter they are taking from as early as late October.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    ZX7R wrote: »
    There is plenty of talk on weather forum that my wife is a member of (polish),
    That eastern Europe to have a very hard early winter they are taking from as early as late October.

    Any details on what this thought comes from? Teleconnections? Gut feeling? Nature?

    I read before that the polish forecasted the most severe winter for Eastern Europe since before 1900 if I remember correctly for 2010-11. That didn’t quite come to fruition but nevertheless, it was still a cold winter. The reason for this forecast was the slow down in the Gulf Stream.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,426 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Any details on what this thought comes from? Teleconnections? Gut feeling? Nature?

    I read before that the polish forecasted the most severe winter for Eastern Europe since before 1900 if I remember correctly for 2010-11. That didn’t quite come to fruition but nevertheless, it was still a cold winter. The reason for this forecast was the slow down in the Gulf Stream.

    Basically from there version of the met office syranbruen ,
    I think it's called the institute of metallurgy and water resources,each of there county area have a local department and would do forecast for there area.
    Then all data collected and forward to the central head department.
    As with any forum everyone can have a say


  • Registered Users Posts: 105 ✭✭Periscal


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Any details on what this thought comes from? Teleconnections? Gut feeling? Nature?

    I read before that the polish forecasted the most severe winter for Eastern Europe since before 1900 if I remember correctly for 2010-11. That didn’t quite come to fruition but nevertheless, it was still a cold winter. The reason for this forecast was the slow down in the Gulf Stream.


    I live in Slovakia now and been involved in almost all social media weather forums and there is no noise at all about severe cold arriving early. Perhaps its down to the wording from Accuweather autumn forecast that predicts early easterly shots as far west as Berlin and Warsaw is also included in wording. About winter 2010/11, it was only marginally colder then 1981/2010 average, by far colder were even 2002/03 and 2005/06 here even 2016/17 was colder then 2010/11.


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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,676 Mod ✭✭✭✭Tabnabs


    Snow warning for large parts of Norway for this weekend. Warnings of 10-20cm "new snow" in the mountains and roads over them.

    VYhQU4-3TvtOMlfLQVyZ7AbtXll4o8t5EVEBjH93NQDw.png

    The Hard Border with their EU neighbours thankfully keeps the snow out of Sweden. ;)


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    Loughc wrote: »
    Sky News have gone very tabloid-esque. Alot of click-bait and sensationalism all over their social media channels too.

    Jaysus I would have said that about Sky News 10 years ago. I don't have it anymore but it was so tabloid back then.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    BBC winter weather forecast from the 1980s:



    'Much more misery to come'. Different times!

    New Moon



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,676 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    BBC winter weather forecast from the 1980s:



    'Much more misery to come'. Different times!

    as a child back then, watching that very forecast live, I had no idea how good we had it!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,339 ✭✭✭esposito


    Don't forget this from the early 90s too

    I love when he says "we won't see those for a long time here"



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,426 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    Periscal wrote: »
    I live in Slovakia now and been involved in almost all social media weather forums and there is no noise at all about severe cold arriving early. Perhaps its down to the wording from Accuweather autumn forecast that predicts early easterly shots as far west as Berlin and Warsaw is also included in wording. About winter 2010/11, it was only marginally colder then 1981/2010 average, by far colder were even 2002/03 and 2005/06 here even 2016/17 was colder then 2010/11.

    I was only forwarding what my wife translated for me hopefully I will learn to read there language with time as we will be moving to her part of Poland to live next June....
    Can't wait to go


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    As 2019-20 is likely to be a transitional winter in terms of QBO from west to easterly, here's a quick reanalysis of similar winters of the past. Two things of note:

    1. The anomalous Aleutian High in the North Pacific which is usually associated with warmer than average SSTs as is the case in 2019.

    2. Relative above average heights over Greenland with the jet stream on a southerly track through Europe. Definite -NAO signal here which goes along with the increased probability of -NAO during 2019-20 as a result of North Atlantic SSTs.

    K7bXGCx.png

    Coincidental how the QBO data features similar results to some teleconnections or drivers in 2019. What's also of note I see is how all the years were either ENSO neutral or featured a La Niña event with none of them featuring an El Niño event - 2019/20 is likely to be ENSO neutral right now.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,027 ✭✭✭MidMan25


    What does all of that mean in English?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,480 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    Say it again:pac:


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,027 ✭✭✭MidMan25


    Posted in once without any issues (page didn't crash etc) so obviously there's something wrong with Boards :rolleyes:


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