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Hurricane Dorian
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I still think it's increasingly likely that this may not actually make landfall at all and could stay offshore, at least until it moves well north. The more it slows down the more chance an upper trough over the US has to dig down and pull it away northwards. The models are all going that way too, and by this time tomorrow these charts could look very different.
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Gaoth Laidir wrote: »I still think it's increasingly likely that this may not actually make landfall at all and could stay offshore, at least until it moves well north. The more it slows down the more chance an upper trough over the US has to dig down and pull it away northwards. The models are all going that way too, and by this time tomorrow these charts could look very different.
The eye staying just offshore (as most models currently indicate) is worst possible scenario.
Well off shore or straight onland for the eye is best scenario.0 -
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The overall offshore trend continues, so the focus should be shifting away from the US and more on the Bahamas, which will be most effected by this. If it does affect the Carolinas its will most likely be in a much reduced state, with increased shear and drier air taking their toll.
In the meantime, we should start to see some eyewall replacement cycles affect the overall intensity, so with a bit of luck that plus the Bahamas islands will limit the effects there. Those max winds quoted really are still only in a very tiny area.0 -
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So it looks like Florida will dodge the bullet. With this new track the worst winds would be east or northeast of the centre and well offshore so it's more rain and sea effects that it would have to deal with. By landfall in SC it would be in a weakened state. But poor Bahamas...
Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
AL052019 500 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019
Dorian continues to look impressive in satellite imagery this morning, with a fairly symmetric area of cold cloud tops surrounding a 10-15 n mi wide eye. There have been no new aircraft data from the storm since the last advisory. However, the satellite appearance has changed little since the aircraft were last in the storm, and the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have changed little over the past several hours. Based on this, the initial intensity remains 120 kt.
The initial motion is now 290/10. A low- to mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of the hurricane should steer it west- northwestward to westward for the next 48 h or so, with the forward speed becoming very slow as the center passes near or over the Abacos and Grand Bahama. The track guidance for this part of the track is tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is near the ECMWF, UKMET, and HCCA corrected consensus models. The track forecast becomes much more problematic after 48 h. The global models the NHC normally uses, along with the regional HWRF and HMON models, have made another shift to the east to the point where none of them forecast Dorian to make landfall in Florida. However, the UKMET ensemble mean still brings the hurricane over the Florida peninsula, as do several GFS and ECMWF ensemble members. The new track forecast for 72-120 h will be moved eastward to stay east of the coast of Florida, and it lies between the old forecast and the various consensus models. Additional adjustments to the forecast track may be necessary later today if current model trends continue. It should be noted that the new forecast track does not preclude Dorian making landfall on the Florida coast, as large portions of the coast remain in the track cone of uncertainty. Also, significant impacts could occur even if the center stays offshore.
Dorian should remain in a generally favorable environment for the next 3-4 days, and the intensity guidance indicates it will remain a powerful hurricane during this time. The new intensity forecast calls for a little more strengthening today, then it shows a slow weakening that follows the trend of the intensity guidance. During this time, the biggest intensity changes may come from hard-to- forecast eyewall replacement cycles. Late in the forecast period, increased vertical shear and proximity to land is expected to cause some weakening.0 -
Certainly looks like it is on the route up along the Eastern Seaboard. Added interest for Ireland for the latter stages of it's life span to see what the remnants have in store for us if any if they reach these latitudes in about 10 to 12 days. One thing for sure is that it will play havoc with the models with probable big swings from run to run , very much a time to watch for trends over the coming days. Models in fair agreement of its route as far as Newfoundland anyway at this stage. Could easily just head up towards Greenland / Iceland, jet will be important and if it merges with other areas of LP etc etc
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Unconfirmed yet by NOAA that latest recorded surface winds are near 160mph!
Confirmed as 150mph now so still just under Cat 5.
West side of the storm doesn’t look as organized perhaps due to some mid level shear. Still obviously not having any effect on the storms intensification
Someone’s prayers were answered. What a dodge.
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Unconfirmed yet by NOAA that latest recorded surface winds are near 160mph!
Confirmed as 150mph now so still just under Cat 5.
West side of the storm doesn’t look as organized perhaps due to some mid level shear. Still obviously not having any effect on the storms intensification
That was an isolated 138-kt SFMR reading, followed by one of 127 kts.
142730 2603N 07319W 7477 02145 9555 +165 +161 096112 131 138 004 00
It's good to see that track now.moving further offshore and even more away from the northern Bahamas. This could turn into a fishstorm after all that!0
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