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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : 2019 and Winter 2020

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  • Registered Users Posts: 554 ✭✭✭robclay26


    Lovely CB over Athboy co Meath area


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 310 ✭✭BlackandGreen


    Somebody posted a picture of a tornado forming on the ireland reddit.
    No idea where it is or how real it is.. but its reddit so it might just be total BS.


    EREZ3xX.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,031 ✭✭✭redsteveireland


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Thunder here in Kildare. Heavens look like they are about to open.

    Driving from Newbridge earlier and skies were so dark over Naas direction. Togher roundabout badly flooded(maybe it's always like that)


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,069 ✭✭✭✭fryup


    well that turned out to be a damp squib ...one clap one flash :( east clare


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭jimmynokia


    Perhaps some action tomorrow.. Perhaps.. https://twitter.com/convectivewx/status/1122917064518324224


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,884 ✭✭✭SlowBlowin


    See Met.ie are forecasting activity tomorrow for Kerry.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM showing potential for thunderstorm along S / SE counties on Weds.

    Not showing much shear in deep levels, better low level for a time, giving a relatively high CAPE reading up to 900 J/kg in the S / SE and high Theta E reading with high humidity and a DP over 10C, Temp of just about 10 to 12C perhaps. 850 hPa about 1 to 2C.

    Convergence seems to be one of the main parameters for aiding thunderstorm development along or just after the occluded front I think. Still evolving . Could be interesting for a couple of hours in the afternoon .

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Not showing the same potential for thunderstorms tomorrow as was showing on earlier runs. Big convective showers could still occur producing gusty local winds.



    cC4R6Kx.png

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 08 May 2019 - 05:59 UTC Thu 09 May 2019

    ISSUED 19:48 UTC Tue 07 May 2019

    ISSUED BY: Dan

    An upper trough will slowly migrate eastwards across the British Isles on Wednesday, becoming rather elongated as the original low centre fills and a new one develops on its eastern flank. This creates a rather complex upper pattern, with some uncertainty as to the exact shape / positioning / timing of various features crucial for the development of deep convection. Excessive cloud cover may inhibit thunderstorm potential somewhat, and will need monitoring.


    Frontal rain will migrate northwards across the British Isles on Wednesday morning, with a clearance then developing across southern areas coinciding with peak daytime heating. Cold air aloft combined with surface heating will generate 300-600 J/kg CAPE within an environment with notably steep mid-level lapse rates. Scattered showers are expected to develop, initially over southern England on Wednesday morning, the risk then extending northeastwards across parts of the Midlands and East Anglia into the afternoon. A few thunderstorms will be possible, particularly focussed where low-level convergence is maximised (especially in a zone from SW England across the M4 towards East Anglia, bounded by the SLGT area). Shear is somewhat limited given similar wind speeds / direction through depth. Hail up to 1.5cm in diameter is possible from the most intense cells.

    Some uncertainty exists over the potential for more cloud and showery outbreaks of rain that could develop over SW England during the afternoon hours, associated with an area of low pressure running eastwards nearby (over the western English Channel). NWP guidance differs in its handling of this feature, and if this cloud/rain does push into SW England (and further east later in the afternoon) then this may reduce the overall thunderstorm potential, especially in the southern portion of the SLGT. Meanwhile the far north of the SLGT area (i.e. Lincolnshire) is subject to slow cloud clearance following morning rain - some model guidance restricts instability to The Wash southwards.

    Any showers/storms that do develop will tend to weaken during the second half of the evening as nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer commences - though some forcing from low-level convergence may persist along the axis of the elongated area of low pressure well into the night.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Thunderstorm potential today in the Northern half of the country more so in the afternoon when some heating gets going. Some heavy downpours expected.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,078 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Heavy hail shower Galway city, very unusual to see.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,105 ✭✭✭highdef


    Heavy prolonged showers are continually developing in north County Dublin (Dublin Airport and northwards to the Lusk area) and are moving very slowly south but are constantly back building. Wouldn't be too surprised if some sparks are reported in these areas soon as well as reports of flooding.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    highdef wrote: »
    Heavy prolonged showers are continually developing in north County Dublin (Dublin Airport and northwards to the Lusk area) and are moving very slowly south but are constantly back building. Wouldn't be too surprised if some sparks are reported in these areas soon as well as reports of flooding.

    Yeah, moderate rain been ongoing for the past few hours.


  • Registered Users Posts: 554 ✭✭✭robclay26


    Rumble of thunder in summerhill co meath
    Lightning and hailstones too


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭jimmynokia


    Cracking flash in lucan with thunder


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,477 ✭✭✭Kamili




  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,620 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Heard a very distant rumble in Dublin 16.


  • Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,129 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    Ya Thunder and Lightning in Clondalkin atm. Loud bang to start


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,323 ✭✭✭lolie


    Few sparks popping up now in the Midlands
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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,829 ✭✭✭tabby aspreme


    Heavy shower and thunder in South Kildare at the moment, had 10 minutes of hailstones at lunchtime


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  • Registered Users Posts: 641 ✭✭✭Dank Janniels


    Lovely thick grey clouds around Roscommon direction, I wonder will they traverse the Galway boundary?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Detected Sferics today

    Lightning Maps.org

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Possible to get some heavy thundery showers tomorrow more so in the Northern half of the country . Parameters not too good but the moisture is there with diurnal heating , low level convergence and cold temperatures aloft might produce some sporadic lightning in the afternoon. Quite marginal again.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,095 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Funnel cloud near Portlaoise today

    CF3635-BB-1-BFA-45-E6-BC96-389130-BFC31-D.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,762 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Funnel cloud near Portlaoise today

    Great shot !


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,466 ✭✭✭jimmynokia


    Under a huge dark cloud heading for airport its dropping hail.


  • Registered Users Posts: 48,129 ✭✭✭✭km79


    Huge hail in athenry


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,031 ✭✭✭redsteveireland


    km79 wrote: »
    Huge hail in athenry

    Slow moving cell passing over, was hoping for some sparks, appears to be growing on the radar too.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,370 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Bubbling up in west Dublin. Could get a rumble of thunder from that.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 48,129 ✭✭✭✭km79


    That shower went on for nearly half an hour in athenry
    Temp dropped 5/6 degrees as well


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