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Are we headed for another crash?

  • 14-01-2016 12:57pm
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,436 ✭✭✭c_man


    I've been hearing a lot recently about 2016 being the year that the global economy will crash and naturally I want to turn to the residents of AH for their input.

    RBS has warned its client to prepare for “cataclysmic year” and "“Sell everything except high quality bonds." Oil is going down down. China had their recent "market correction". My mate down the pub reckons it's all going to go tits up.

    Aside from the obvious economic impacts, such a crash in this year would have big effects on all the upcoming elections. Interesting time.

    I only have a passing knowledge of these things but what do ye think? Any signs of it in your own job? Are you doing anything to prepare? Should I be stocking up on pantyhose and chocolate?


«1345

Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,766 ✭✭✭Bongalongherb


    Clients told to seek safety of Bunds and Treasuries.

    What's a Bund ?


  • Registered Users Posts: 221 ✭✭plys


    I don't know what a tracker mortgage is...


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,761 ✭✭✭Pinch Flat


    Start stock piling spam and pasta


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,127 ✭✭✭kjl


    c_man wrote: »
    My mate down the pub reckons it's all going to go tits up.

    Well in that case....


  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Stock market crashes and economic crashes aren't the same thing. Money in the stock markets isn't real money.

    The problems arise when companies are too leveraged against stock markets with their cash and then the arse falls out of it. The conditions here in Ireland are nowhere near the same as they were back in 2007. There's no reason to expect a 10% stock market drop to result in massive job losses or wage cuts like before. In fact, no reason not to expect moderate growth here to continue.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,766 ✭✭✭Bongalongherb


    Not another recession ffs.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,228 ✭✭✭podgemonster


    Buckle-up Buckaroo!!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,116 ✭✭✭RDM_83 again


    My money, which I don't have any off so I'm safe to ignore, is that the tech companies bubble is going to burst hard.


  • Registered Users Posts: 43,017 ✭✭✭✭SEPT 23 1989


    If oil goes down to 20 dollars a barrel the knock on effect will be as bad as 2008


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,338 ✭✭✭cml387


    See when oil was $150 a barrel we were told the end of the world is nigh.
    Now when it's $30 a barrel the end of the world is still nigh.
    And they call economics a science?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,299 ✭✭✭✭The Backwards Man


    The arse will fall out of the peer services soon I'd say, maybe not this year but soon. The three Rs will fcuk them, Regulations, Revenue, and the Realisation by their subcontractors that they are getting a very lean end of the stick.

    Apart from that, everybody else just spend spend spend. :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,812 ✭✭✭✭sbsquarepants


    What's a Bund ?

    Goes under or around an oil tank to contain the oil in case of leaks.
    Don't see how the future of the world economy depends on them though. Unless......fill it up with cheap oil....... wait for it to go up again.....yacht.
    OP you're a genius:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 683 ✭✭✭conditioned games


    The worlds financial system is on life support and has been since 2008. Central banks and governments around the world have been printing currency and creating debt like crazy the past 7 years to prevent deflation taking hold in the world economies. Now with oil down at $30 a barrel it looks like we're heading into a deflationary period anyway with economic indicators around the world getting more negative. Anyway only so long you can put off the inevitable, the current financial system we are on has been around since after world war 2 which has developed major cracks so we are due a change in the coming years. 2016 looks like it will be turbulent so exiting times ahead.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,299 ✭✭✭✭The Backwards Man


    cml387 wrote: »
    See when oil was $150 a barrel we were told the end of the world is nigh.
    Now when it's $30 a barrel the end of the world is still nigh.
    And they call economics a science?

    Economics is as scientific as your mother telling you not to get drunk at the teenage disco. Perfect in hindsight.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,453 ✭✭✭valoren


    Shouldn't this thread belong in Bargain Alerts? :D

    Some solid and quality and huge companies shares should be on sale then this year if this is true.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,965 ✭✭✭✭Zulu


    Well start crying collapse now, so you can be sure to be on the "told you so" bandwagon.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,828 ✭✭✭5rtytry56


    Good Old AH. Tin Hat Time! :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    We're always headed for another crash, only a question of when


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,812 ✭✭✭✭sbsquarepants


    cml387 wrote: »
    See when oil was $150 a barrel we were told the end of the world is nigh.
    Now when it's $30 a barrel the end of the world is still nigh.
    And they call economics a science?

    Inflation is bad, so the opposite of bad must be good right, not if you're an economist:D

    They say the definition of an economist is someone who can tell you tomorrow exactly why it was the thing they predicted yesterday didn't come to pass.
    They make the shít up as they go along.
    You can actually get nobel prizes in this shít. It's like winning the nobel prize for palm reading.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,828 ✭✭✭5rtytry56


    valoren wrote: »
    Shouldn't this thread belong in Bargain Alerts? :D

    Some solid and quality and huge companies shares should be on sale then this year if this is true.

    no!...NO!!












    The Recycle Bin


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  • Registered Users Posts: 43,017 ✭✭✭✭SEPT 23 1989


    What's a Bund ?

    burger buns


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,701 ✭✭✭jam_mac_jam


    Inflation is bad, so the opposite of bad must be good right, not if you're an economist:D

    They say the definition of an economist is someone who can tell you tomorrow exactly why it was the thing they predicted yesterday didn't come to pass.
    They make the shít up as they go along.
    You can actually get nobel prizes in this shít. It's like winning the nobel prize for palm reading.

    yes because that's all economists are for, telling the future...


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,794 ✭✭✭Aongus Von Bismarck


    I can see there being corrections in a number of markets. I stand to make significant money in the event of a crash in European shares. The Australian economy tanking due to a commodities bust would also serve me well.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,436 ✭✭✭c_man


    seamus wrote: »
    Stock market crashes and economic crashes aren't the same thing. Money in the stock markets isn't real money.

    Well, I suppose for most people the effect would be their pension pot right? That's fairly real for the general public.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,611 ✭✭✭Valetta


    Pinch Flat wrote: »
    Start stock piling spam and pasta

    Clog up your computer and arteries at the same time.

    That'll really help.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,701 ✭✭✭jam_mac_jam


    c_man wrote: »
    Well, I suppose for most people the effect would be their pension pot right? That's fairly real for the general public.

    And also effects insurance companies, and banks and lending, investment money for companies so they can employ people, trade. But no its special not real money


  • Registered Users Posts: 68,317 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    c_man wrote: »
    Well, I suppose for most people the effect would be their pension pot right? That's fairly real for the general public.
    Depends on where they're stored. The last time a lot of people had their pensions tied up in portfolios which included property and medium-risk investments. Anyone who's still stupid enough to be doing that deserves what's coming tbh.

    Or you could just not have a pension, like me.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,299 ✭✭✭✭The Backwards Man


    I can see there being corrections in a number of markets. I stand to make significant money in the event of a crash in European shares. The Australian economy tanking due to a commodities bust would also serve me well.

    Folks, put everything you have in fancy sausages, Riesling and log cabins.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,188 ✭✭✭wil


    yes because that's all economists are for, telling the future...

    Well they are pretty sh!t at remembering the past.
    They do a good job of denying the present.
    So that just leaves....

    Live in the d'now


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,766 ✭✭✭Bongalongherb


    I wonder if Steve has an update on this ?

    Steve Keen of which is a professor in economics and finance at the University of Western Sydney. Steve was one of the few economists in the world to predict the past financial crisis.

    Well Steve what do you think ? over to you Steve.


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