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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Winter 2019 / 2020 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Cool in general until Weds, cool again Thurs and milder again on Fri. With the milder days comes the rain though with fronts crossing the country.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 23,370 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Thursday has snow potential. Frontal systems coming up against cold air from the northwest look orientated in such a way that they could turn to snow through Thursday morning. A sharp enough thermal gradient too

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    One to watch. GFS is a bit crude at this time frame but shows as such too

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    A rain band going through tomorrow morning followed by showers, very wet Weds into Thurs morning followed by showers some of which will be wintry. Widespread rain again Fri.

    Some sign of sleety rain in the frontal band going through early on Thurs Morning.

    Looks like some big rainfall amounts by he end of the week.

    Winds never far away this week and more so the nearer we get to the weekend

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,483 ✭✭✭typhoony


    I must be looking at different charts, still unsettled this week and a bit cold, but the Conveyor belt of deep depressions has certainly stopped, even beyond 120hrs and up to 180hrs we have mild and cold in rotation. but certainly not much rain and the cold won't feel too bad in the warmer late February sun.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Indeed you must be, GFS shows a never ending conveyor belt of rain for the next week. Wind not as strong and not as cold but essentially its just more of the same

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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    A slight risk of snow on Thursday looking at some model runs and sat24. What does anyone else think?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    pauldry wrote: »
    A slight risk of snow on Thursday looking at some model runs and sat24. What does anyone else think?

    most of the models aren't going for it except for the GFS and Euro models. Temperatures look too high for any lying snow away from high ground in the north. Could be some sleetyness in the rain/showers at lower levels. Uppers of about -6 or -7C which is similar to what we had a few days ago combined with daytime temperatures of 4 or 5c is very borderline/marginal for snow at lower levels.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Rain totals predicted by the ECM up to Fri night

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Charts showing it a bit windy on Fri and quite wet, makings of an unpleasant day for anything outdoors, looks quite heavy in the W and NW and a bit lower totals in the SW. Looks like the mildest day in some time getting up around 10 -11C.

    A lot of rivers lakes going to be tested by the large rainfall amounts on the way.

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    ECM Rainfall Accumulation Predictions up to Sunday

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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,316 ✭✭✭nthclare


    The upper Fergus has burst its banks near Corofin

    The Fall's in Ennistymon are spectacular at the moment, the Inagh river has high banks no fear of Ennistymon getting flooding.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    After the front clears early Thurs cold air mass follows with widespread wintry showers, hail and thunder also, more so along the Atlantic seaboard.

    528 dam line below Ireland again.

    Cold breezy day, windy on the coasts.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,131 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    The recently useless euro 04 going for snow over Munster on Thursday......


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The recently useless euro 04 going for snow over Munster on Thursday......

    Yeah at the back edge of the front and snow showers to follow, no doubt very cold mid level temperatures following but the EURO 4 just seems to overdo everything. Probably get snow on high ground and the higher hills all right, later could get heavy sleet/ snow showers following but very mixed air temperatures due to the wind coming off the W perhaps and the temperatures rise towards evening as the next deluge of rain arrives. Worth keeping an eye though, if it was to snow at the back edge of the front it would be clearing the country around 06.00 / 07.00, at that stage wintry showers should be arriving into Atlantic counties. So early morning commute could be a bit tricky for some.

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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    After the front clears early Thurs cold air mass follows with widespread wintry showers, hail and thunder also, more so along the Atlantic seaboard.

    528 dam line below Ireland again.

    Cold breezy day, windy on the coasts.

    Is this productive for sea level snow in Ulster? It has been snowing on and off today above 600 feet with warmer 850pha temps??

    What about frontal snow?


  • Registered Users Posts: 497 ✭✭loughside


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    Is this productive for sea level snow in Ulster? It has been snowing on and off today above 600 feet with warmer 850pha temps??

    What about frontal snow?


    How in the wide world can anybody answer that?


    Where in Ulster do you need to know??


    Kilkeel? Or 150kms away in Dunfanaghy??


    Both Ulster


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Plenty of rain between here and Monday


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Models are showing the potential of a frontal snow event later Sunday night into Monday morning in perhaps the W , NW and N. Front associated with a LP running up off the W coast, probably achieve some forcing as it runs into cold air .The often conservative, with regard to snow , ARPEGE and ICON are showing a right dumping although it looks like it might be not sticking for long but looks like a heavy snowfall initially anyway. ECM showing it also but to a lesser extent.

    ARPEGE and ICON look the strongest winds at this stage, ECM and GFS a lot lower so a bit to go to have confidence on track and strength.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    loughside wrote: »
    How in the wide world can anybody answer that?


    Where in Ulster do you need to know??


    Kilkeel? Or 150kms away in Dunfanaghy??


    Both Ulster

    Closer to 180kms actually! :D


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Early charts for next Tues into Weds showing very cold blustery NW'lys laden with wintry precipitation and turning increasingly to snow Tuesday evening into Weds. A long way off yet when you are talking about snow but certainly looks very cold at least. From that direction would expect numerous hail showers with thunderstorm possibility. One to keep an eye on .


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Sunday models still showing the deepening LP track up off the W coast and gets close to the NW /N coasts . Frontal snow a big potential in North Connacht, Ulster and maybe some N midlands counties Sunday night / early Monday morning as the as the warm front moves into cold air, thinking more than likely if it will be a big dump of wet heavy snow. Chart below is total accumulation but a lot of this could be melting fairly quickly. Windy weather across the country, currently looks like getting up around 100 to 120 km/h on the coastal fringes of the W, NW and N, gusting 80 to 90 km/h overland on Monday. After the fronts go through an increasingly cold air mass spreads over the country introducing wintry showers towards later Monday into Tues and becoming increasingly cold with more snow potential from early Tuesday. Windy Tuesday in parts so bitterly cold expected, ECM showing only getting up to 4 or 5C in general, a bit higher on some coastal fringes.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Good model agreement for snowfall Sunday night /Monday morning but might not last long , probably rain following wash most of it out.

    Very heavy rain also, looks like the triple point of the system will pass over the country.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    looks like many will not see that snow over Donegal and NI with snow between 1 and 4am and then a few hours of heavy rain after, snow will probably be long gone by the time people wake up for work, certainly could be more flooding with this.

    Scotland looks like it could see quite a dumping of snow, even to low levels.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    wouldn't be surprised if this becomes a named storm for Monday, winds look fairly intense in the north-west up to 120km/h near the coasts.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Models have pulled back on the wind strength from that Low on Monday, now more like getting up to 110 km/h on coastal fringes and 80 to 90 km/h overland, making for rough enough conditions in Northern counties with probably slushy snow lying for a time into Monday and lots of run off melt water from the snow which could be from 5 to 10 cms .

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Very wintry precipitation and plenty of it on Tues by the looks of it. 528 dam line south of Ireland and troughs feeding in over the country on a NW'ly with the freezing level quite low. A bit windy too. Cold week.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,877 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Interesting week coming up with wintry potential on a lot of days. For the moment though Tuesday looks great for some prolonged snowfall especially on hills. Could be quite a bit of lying snow by Wednesday morning particularly in Western areas!! Expect a warning on it by late tomorrow.
    In the meantime of course some excitement for the North Midlands tonight which could cause temporary disruption.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,483 ✭✭✭typhoony


    GFS and to a lesser extent UKMO going for a serious wind event this Saturday.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    typhoony wrote: »
    GFS and to a lesser extent UKMO going for a serious wind event this Saturday.

    Has the makings of a named storm event if it keeps evolving like the majority of the models are showing typhoony. Ellen might get her day soon!

    ARPEGEE and GFS very similar in strength, timing and track, ICON has it coming in earlier and lower and stronger and the ECM has it well off shore with the strongest winds well missing us. So the ECM very much the odd one out atm ? Will throw up some current maps to see how this progresses over the coming days. All showing the feature as a deepening storm on approach, all bar the ECM showing very to extremely strong winds more so on the Western side of the country at this stage.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,766 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Will see if the ECM follows suit tomorrow.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Definitely the GFS is overcooking Saturday

    By the time it happens it will just be a blustery day

    Why do they do that

    That's crazy. Theyv lost all credibility. Do the Daily Express do their charts?


This discussion has been closed.
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