Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Colder weather 16th Nov ----->

  • 06-11-2011 5:54am
    #1
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭


    After a brief flirt with much milder weather increasingly the signs are that not only will it not last but that a shock is on the way immediately following. If we can lose the Euro high fairly swiftly and gain from a pressure rise to the North then very cold air from Scandinavia (much like last year) is likely. We need low pressure to have easy passage to the South. And we need the Jet Stream to aid a pressure rise to the North which in turn will lower heights and pressure to the South. Latest model runs suggest a real possibility of that happening. Watch this space (and date);)


    gem-0-216.png?00


    Exciting times ahead - warm then freezing potentially.


«134

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 14,240 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    darkman2 wrote: »
    After a brief flirt with much milder weather increasingly the signs are that not only will it not last but that a shock is on the way immediately following. If we can lose the Euro high fairly swiftly and gain from a pressure rise to the North then very cold air from Scandinavia (much like last year) is likely. We need low pressure to have easy passage to the South. And we need the Jet Stream to aid a pressure rise to the North which in turn will lower heights and pressure to the South. Latest model runs suggest a real possibility of that happening. Watch this space (and date);


    Exciting times ahead - warm then freezing potentially.

    Thanks Darkman2! It's starting to get really exciting now! Like last year! :-D


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    I wonder If I should post this to IWO ???.... Very tempted indeed!!! .... Mark might dislike the idea though hehe ..

    Excitementness!! :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,507 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    Sorry Darkman but the GEM is the only one showing that strong a set up. Maybe the others will come into line yet who knows.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    dsmythy wrote: »
    Sorry Darkman but the GEM is the only one showing that strong a set up. Maybe the others will come into line yet who knows.

    Fully agree, its 10 days away, we had freezing easterlys 10 days away in the models for about 2 months last january and february. Even more premature than the other thread!


  • Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    The difference between the 06z and the 12z quite interesting. Here on the 13th, the 12z tries to link up the Scandi/Euro high with Greenland. Tentative signs of this pattern change perhaps?

    180428.JPG


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    12z very different to the 6z in FIsland.

    Only early days yet.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Unusual to see such a big difference before 192h, still very bland and boring charts even into deep FI though. Looks like the high is sticking around for another week and there's no strong signs of a big pattern change once it does go. GEM and to an extent UKMO are the only models going for anything remotely interesting

    Still, cant say I'm complaining after the disastrous October we had around here, mild, sunny and dry will do nicely for another week. My prediction of a very dry November is looking good so far :)


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Harps wrote: »
    My prediction of a very dry November is looking good so far :)


    Yes, 100% right. Nice prediction. Also good you brought that up because this is not the average November setup. Normal conditions this time of year are the raging westerly winds and rain.

    Latest UK Met Office charts show again it's going to be very mild for a time but it's events both up and downstream that are most interesting for us. Notably the signs of pressure rising to the North. This chart has change written all over it. Just the high pressure over Europe we need out of the way.

    Rukm1441.gif


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Right, so does that latter chart mean Hot Snow????


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,551 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    Right, so does that latter chart mean Hot Snow????



    it means the potential is there for the weather to turn colder if the euro high moves towards scandinavia, or one builds up there after the euro high disappears, as it will help to push the jet stream southwards and allow colder air to flow down to us. the ideal scenario at some point during this winter would be an omega block from a scandi high and a greenland high, but sadly Carlsberg don't do a perfect winter weather synoptic.


  • Advertisement
  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    It means...exactly what Nacho says. Well put. So the ads were wrong then about Carlsberg doing a perfect winter weather synoptic :mad:








    :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    The warm weather thread gets 1 thank. The cold (and less likely!) weather thread gets 21 . . . we all know where this forums loyalties lie!


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    its been freezn all year so it would be a shame to ruin it now so roll on icebergs the size of new york city!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    pauldry wrote: »
    its been freezn all year so it would be a shame to ruin it now so roll on icebergs the size of new york city!

    Temps in every month except January, June and august have been above average, with February, April and October well above average.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 399 ✭✭fizzycyst


    The warm weather thread gets 1 thank. The cold (and less likely!) weather thread gets 21 . . . we all know where this forums loyalties lie!

    Although I prefer cold, I tend to thank people for putting the effort in to any forecast, be it positive or negative :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    If we were to get a decent cold easterly, with sst's in the irish sea at nearly 14 degrees, there would be some monster streamers springing up!


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    as i was saying b4 its been freezn all year (in Sligo)

    but averages up due to cloud cover at night


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    This is more like it....


    Recm1921.gif

    Basically if it evolves like that increasingly harsh frosts would occur and becoming colder overall with a good chance of much colder weather from Scandinavia coming in too. Would like to see more undercutting by atlantic systems but that's a good setup if you want ice and snow at some point.


    :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    A short animation of the 850hpa's toward the end of the latest GEFS run

    417211.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,491 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Temps in every month except January, June and august have been above average, with February, April and October well above average.

    july was above avg?:eek: hard to believe!


  • Advertisement
  • Closed Accounts Posts: 399 ✭✭fizzycyst


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    july was above avg?:eek: hard to believe!

    July temps were below average everywhere except for Bellmullet

    http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly_summarys/july11sum.pdf


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,499 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    The warm weather thread gets 1 thank. The cold (and less likely!) weather thread gets 21 . . . we all know where this forums loyalties lie!

    21 lads looking to lock the lawnmower away ;)


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,144 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    21 lads looking to lock the lawnmower away ;)

    Cut the grass there bout 12 days ago and was thinking that will be it for the winter now ,

    Looking at it tonight on the way in I was thinking it could do with a little trim , and with a few midlish days on the horizon its going to have to get done !


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,499 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    Cut the grass there bout 12 days ago and was thinking that will be it for the winter now ,

    Looking at it tonight on the way in I was thinking it could do with a little trim , and with a few midlish days on the horizon its going to have to get done !

    Gave it trim yesterday, amazing frost on it this morning :D


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Excellent UKMO for cold.


    UW144-21.GIF?08-05

    What comes shortly after that is just as ravaging in terms of cold and potential snow and ice as last year - if it occurs. That is more like the undercutting we want to see;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,240 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    darkman2 wrote: »
    Excellent UKMO for cold.


    UW144-21.GIF?08-05

    What comes shortly after that is just as ravaging in terms of cold and potential snow and ice as last year - if it occurs. That is more like the undercutting we want to see;)

    Was it this way last year darkman2 before the snow came? Was it the same sort of setup?


  • Registered Users Posts: 285 ✭✭GavinH


    Every year about this time, I get on boards to see whats coming for the winter. Living in Cork as everyone knows we get relatively little snow. Anyway I happy to report that this year I will be seeing plenty of snow, as myself and the family are moving to Utah. :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,240 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    GavinH wrote: »
    Every year about this time, I get on boards to see whats coming for the winter. Living in Cork as everyone knows we get relatively little snow. Anyway I happy to report that this year I will be seeing plenty of snow, as myself and the family are moving to Utah. :)

    Oh my god best of luck! And be sure to post loads of pics of the snow!!:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,949 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Fair play, Utahs a beautiful state. With great weather too, searing hot in the summer and bucket loads of snow (i hope your going to salt lake!) in the winter.

    Nice one!


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 913 ✭✭✭TheFairy


    This still on the cards?


This discussion has been closed.
Advertisement