Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

glimmerman123 · 10-01-2010 3:57pm

I just hope we don't go back to the heavy rain and floods we had a few weeks back. I can't see us having several months of fine weather after this cold spell.

M.T. Cranium · 10-01-2010 7:24pm

UPDATE _ Sunday, 6:20 p.m.
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Currently, milder air has pushed into most parts of Ireland, although remnants of the bitter cold are found in the southwest where snow continues to accumulate. The situation is now rather complicated; there will be a slight cooling of the general easterly flow but a decrease in precipitation due in part to a slacker wind gradient by early Monday. The net effect of all that is likely to be occasional light sleet, snow grains, or other mixed forms of precipitation, not accumulating very much in any case, with temperatures fairly steady in the 0-3 C range until late Monday.

Then, a surge of milder air will arrive on strong SE winds (30-50 mph) with periods of rain that may turn rather heavy in the south. Temperatures by Tuesday morning will be up to near 8 C in the southwest, 6 C in the southeast and east, about 5 C central and west, and 3 C in Ulster. At higher elevations it won't warm up that much, and some of the heavier snow packs on hills and mountains may remain intact, but otherwise one could envisage a near total meltdown of the snow as well as a releasing of any freeze in the ground, after a few hours of the mild rainy weather. The results are likely to be minor flooding in places, and a general clearance of the roads and pavements except for some higher secondary roads which may remain icy.

The rest of the week then looks a bit on the cool, foggy side again as a weak further push of Atlantic air begins to mix with remnants of cold air still lurking over parts of the U.K., all of which combined may result in a very low cloud ceiling and temperatures near 2 or 3 C. A further thaw and rainfall with strong winds will follow, according to the model runs this morning that is, by about Friday night or Saturday.

Just a note about the Tuesday system -- it has the potential to change at the last moment if colder air takes firmer hold over the region Monday, and it could become a snowstorm at the last moment at least in the north and east, I think the mild, rainy interval is more certain in the south and west at this point. I don't see that much cold air locking in on Monday to hold this system back from eastern and northern counties, but possibly others have a different idea as I am hearing all sorts of forecasts. So I should at least underline the uncertainty involved here.

Also, this system tends to die out as it passes west of Galway late Tuesday; it isn't likely to be followed by a flood of mild, Atlantic air, but rather, it will come along and do its business with a brief shot of energy, then skulk away towards Iceland leaving Ireland with a decaying swirl of moist maritime air; winds may never veer from SE to S or SW in eastern or northern counties, but just remain SE backing to E once the disturbance fades away. The wind shift further west will be gradual and rather subdued (not likely to see SW gales, just SE gales as the storm approaches).

Anyway, I will keep watching and updating as required.

Super-Rush · 11-01-2010 4:54am

BBC are now giving a warning for heavy snow for southern and eastern(Irish) counties on Tuesday.

M.T. Cranium · 11-01-2010 5:47am

Monday, 11 January, 2010
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This forecast may be updated at any time ... bear in mind that the unfolding situation will be subject to significant forecast changes if the systems are even a small distance removed from their model predicted positions.

TODAY will continue with similar trends to Sunday, although the heavier snow in the southwest should abate, becoming more of a sleety drizzle by morning. Most other regions will be seeing a mixture of rain, sleet and wet snow, with snow accumulations only on higher ground, as temperatures hover around 2 or 3 C. A few colder areas will see dense fog forming as this milder air sits over deeper snow cover. Winds will ease somewhat for most today, while increasing in the southwest due to better mixing of the air there. This will leave all regions with ESE winds of about 15-25 mph.

TONIGHT will have a low overcast and patchy dense fog over hills mostly, with sleet or wet snow at times, turning to a steady rain in the south after midnight. It is possible that a heavy wet snow will develop especially at elevations above 200 metres in the southeast and central counties before warmer air arrives. It is also likely that a nasty mix of freezing drizzle, sleet and snow will hit Ulster and some other north-central counties. The overnight lows will be near 2 C in the south and zero elsewhere.

TUESDAY will see moderate to heavy rain moving north, replacing any sleet or snow rather quickly after sunrise. Winds will start increasing before sunrise in the south and just afterwards in the east and central to western counties, reaching SE 30-50 mph. As temperatures rise to about 8 C in the south and 5-6 C in the east, central and west to northwest counties, most of the existing snow and ice will rapidly melt. This process will be slower in Ulster and some other north-central counties as the milder air only arrives late in the day and pushes temperatures there to about 4 C. Rainfalls of 20-30 mms appear likely. Flooding is quite possible due to stream overflow, or urban ponding around snow banks -- you may be able to avoid this locally by clearing your street drains on Monday if possible. Also, watch for landslides, mudflows or bridge washouts on secondary roads especially near mountain drainage, as a lot of melted snow and rain will be combining to turn small streams into torrents.

Note there is some uncertainty built into this forecast, if the low were to prove slower or weaker, a band of heavy snow or sleet would probably linger through much of the day in some northern and eastern counties.

TUESDAY NIGHT into WEDNESDAY, the winds will rapidly die down, low cloud and drizzle will remain from the storm, and temperatures will drop back to about 3 C so melting will slow again. Higher mountain snowpacks will probably survive this brief thaw but will become unstable (not sure if Ireland has ever seen avalanches as such, but minor snowslides coming with mudslides would seem quite possible in this weather). Wednesday will continue overcast, gloomy and rather foggy in places, with the slowly melting snow and ice adding moisture especially in the north. Highs will be 3-5 C.

THURSDAY appears likely to remain about the same, overcast with some fog, light winds, and temperatures in a fairly narrow range of about 2-6 C, unless it happens to clear a little on Thursday morning, in which case a frost and freezing fog could easily reappear.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY now appear likely to warm up even more, with a strong southerly flow, temperatures rising to 11-13 C in many areas, and moderate rain at times. This may cause more minor flooding if there's any snow left to melt, and it could even start to melt snow at higher elevations rather quickly. This part of the forecast is of course subject to more uncertainty than the shorter term. It would not amaze me if we were rolling back this strong thaw later in the week, but this is what the early model runs have been saying.

We already have this sort of weather here and it's not doing much good to the lower Olympic venues, perhaps we will have to move them to Mayo after all.

:eek::cool: It was about 12 C here on Sunday and quite comfortable outside in just a light jacket (and of course some other clothing). :cool:

I have no doubt that there will be a wide range of opinions about what's ahead for the next few days, so just remember, this is one idea out of many, and I acknowledge the uncertain nature of the forecast.

M.T. Cranium · 11-01-2010 11:46am

UPDATE _ Monday, 1045h GMT
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I will attempt to update tomorrow's developing weather situation with each new run. Based on the 06z GFS, I am not seeing anything radically different from the forecast above. Some details that I have also discussed in the other threads ...

The storm will probably have a rapid onset around 0300-0600h as moisture sweeps in from the south. This may begin as sleet or heavy wet snow in some eastern counties at least some distance inland and 100-200m above sea level. It may remain mostly snow in counties north of Dublin and generally to the east of Roscommon. This may lead to snowfalls of 5-15 cms on Tuesday in those counties, mainly in Ulster and possibly Westmeath and inland parts of Meath, Longford and possibly a few other areas.

Otherwise, expect the storm to bring a driving rain (with this mixed start that occurs mainly before people are generally up and about) and winds increasing to SE 30-50 mph in general, but possibly 40-65 mph in Waterford and Cork where a very strong gradient is indicated by 0900-1200h.

Temperatures will likely rise rapidly in the south to 6-8 C and more gradually around Dublin to about 5-6 C, this being about the same for a string of counties across south-central Ireland from about Laois to Clare. Rainfalls of 30-45 mms are now indicated, and where snow is present today, you could reasonably expect some flooding to begin mid-afternoon Tuesday lasting well into Wednesday as the rate of melt slows down.

By late afternoon and evening, colder air is going to be wrapping around the storm from the Atlantic and possibly turning some of the rain back to sleet or heavy wet snow before the whole thing winds down with lighter precip of a mixed variety on Wednesday, in temperatures closer to 2-4 C.

There is also the risk of some thunder and hail embedded in this strong storm system in Kerry, Cork, Waterford, Wexford and inland to about Shannon to Thurles. I would imagine there could be some thunder further east but likely without the hail or possibly very strong wind gusts that may affect the south central counties.

Uncertainty remains significant, some forecast models are indicating a slower mixing of snow and rain which would put the accumulating snow a bit further south in the morning. I still have the feeling this is going to develop rapidly and force the arctic front to the north of Dublin but not that far north. The hail and thunder risk would be along the main storm system occluded front that will extend southeast from the low centre as it moves north.

Next update likely to be around 1600h.

Redsunset · 11-01-2010 11:53am

THUNDERSNOW ALERT.:D

not impossible.

snowjon · 11-01-2010 12:57pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

UPDATE _ Monday, 1045h GMT
_______________________

I will attempt to update tomorrow's developing weather situation with each new run. Based on the 06z GFS, I am not seeing anything radically different from the forecast above. Some details that I have also discussed in the other threads ...

The storm will probably have a rapid onset around 0300-0600h as moisture sweeps in from the south. This may begin as sleet or heavy wet snow in some eastern counties at least some distance inland and 100-200m above sea level. It may remain mostly snow in counties north of Dublin and generally to the east of Roscommon. This may lead to snowfalls of 5-15 cms on Tuesday in those counties, mainly in Ulster and possibly Westmeath and inland parts of Meath, Longford and possibly a few other areas.

Otherwise, expect the storm to bring a driving rain (with this mixed start that occurs mainly before people are generally up and about) and winds increasing to SE 30-50 mph in general, but possibly 40-65 mph in Waterford and Cork where a very strong gradient is indicated by 0900-1200h.

Temperatures will likely rise rapidly in the south to 6-8 C and more gradually around Dublin to about 5-6 C, this being about the same for a string of counties across south-central Ireland from about Laois to Clare. Rainfalls of 30-45 mms are now indicated, and where snow is present today, you could reasonably expect some flooding to begin mid-afternoon Tuesday lasting well into Wednesday as the rate of melt slows down.

By late afternoon and evening, colder air is going to be wrapping around the storm from the Atlantic and possibly turning some of the rain back to sleet or heavy wet snow before the whole thing winds down with lighter precip of a mixed variety on Wednesday, in temperatures closer to 2-4 C.

There is also the risk of some thunder and hail embedded in this strong storm system in Kerry, Cork, Waterford, Wexford and inland to about Shannon to Thurles. I would imagine there could be some thunder further east but likely without the hail or possibly very strong wind gusts that may affect the south central counties.

Uncertainty remains significant, some forecast models are indicating a slower mixing of snow and rain which would put the accumulating snow a bit further south in the morning. I still have the feeling this is going to develop rapidly and force the arctic front to the north of Dublin but not that far north. The hail and thunder risk would be along the main storm system occluded front that will extend southeast from the low centre as it moves north.

Next update likely to be around 1600h.

M.T. - your forecasts on here have been remarkably accurate over the course of this cold spell - far better than Met Eireann or MetO IMO so thankyou for providing this invaluable service! What do you think is the chance of seeing snow here (Bangor) tomorrow. It's been raining all morning here with a temp of 3.5C, dew point 0C - are these temperatures likely to fall enough to produce snow tomorrow do you think? The rain today has reduced my confidence somewhat!

M.T. Cranium · 11-01-2010 6:33pm

That is a very good question, I'll try to give an answer in this update.

The 12z GFS and GEM runs have not added much new information. So I am going to maintain the forecast above, but stressing the uncertainty about snowfall in Ulster and other counties generally north of Dublin. Much will depend on how the storm comes together overnight, with rapid development expected well to the south of Valentia after midnight, and this weak warm advection as described in Snowjon's post above, extending even into areas where snowfall might develop. Quite often a storm like this will pull back some of the colder air that has been gradually retreating, as it creates a stronger circulation. This is probably the thinking behind any snowfall forecasts, even those which are more aggressive than mine (if those still exist, I haven't been reading the threads yet). Now I don't see this storm pulling back the arctic front 200 miles but 50-100 seems possible, which is why I think there could be an outbreak of heavy snow in these northern counties late tonight and through parts of tomorrow. On the other hand, the coast may not see as much snow as places further inland, as the wind will tend to be blowing in from the still-warmish waters, so I would hazard the guess that Bangor near sea level would see more sleet than snow and possibly changing to rain.

Otherwise, staying with the forecast from earlier and taking another tour of the guidance and the threads on various forums to see what's happening and what people are thinking. More updates if they seem necessary.

snowjon · 11-01-2010 6:45pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

That is a very good question, I'll try to give an answer in this update.

The 12z GFS and GEM runs have not added much new information. So I am going to maintain the forecast above, but stressing the uncertainty about snowfall in Ulster and other counties generally north of Dublin. Much will depend on how the storm comes together overnight, with rapid development expected well to the south of Valentia after midnight, and this weak warm advection as described in Snowjon's post above, extending even into areas where snowfall might develop. Quite often a storm like this will pull back some of the colder air that has been gradually retreating, as it creates a stronger circulation. This is probably the thinking behind any snowfall forecasts, even those which are more aggressive than mine (if those still exist, I haven't been reading the threads yet). Now I don't see this storm pulling back the arctic front 200 miles but 50-100 seems possible, which is why I think there could be an outbreak of heavy snow in these northern counties late tonight and through parts of tomorrow. On the other hand, the coast may not see as much snow as places further inland, as the wind will tend to be blowing in from the still-warmish waters, so I would hazard the guess that Bangor near sea level would see more sleet than snow and possibly changing to rain.

Otherwise, staying with the forecast from earlier and taking another tour of the guidance and the threads on various forums to see what's happening and what people are thinking. More updates if they seem necessary.

That sounds very like a very plausible outcome. It's interesting how close the wintry stuff is - earlier today a litle pocket of cooler air reduced the air temp to 2.6C and the dew point to -0.8C which allowed some sleet to reach the ground. Since then, its been rain all the way - currently air temp/dew point is 2.9C/-0.2C. As you mentioned in some previous forecasts - a very messy picture this week!

M.T. Cranium · 11-01-2010 7:30pm

Well it is a close call for sure, I've been noticing that the Isle of Man has been reporting snow especially (the man says) above the lowest elevations, and it hasn't warmed up at all away from the southwest tip of Wales, Cornwall has seen a bit of a warming down in the lower parts so an arctic front is developing along a line from just marginally east of Belfast running approx SSE to the Channel Islands, and when this low starts pulling in a stronger circulation, that front is bound to move west rather than east overnight -- this is why some are forecasting snow quite a way back into the somewhat milder air mass that is stuck between the arctic front and the developing frontal wave (those fronts are still over a hundred miles offshore and won't make landfall until after 0600). If the Irish Sea wasn't there to complicate the situation, I might be quite tempted to say snow backing into the circulation but that's the foundation of this forecast, that the arctic front will buckle and sag further south over land in Ireland than over the sea.

Then that buckled front will probably get pushed back north to some extent, stall out again, the other fronts will slowly weaken, cold air will wrap around the whole mess -- I'm getting a headache just thinking about it. Some places are going to see an almighty mess out of this, not cold enough to snow properly and not warm enough to thaw, it will just add more slop that could later freeze.

Also I am concerned about the rainfall potential on Friday into early Saturday from the latest guidance, falling on what is likely to be a saturated countryside just in the last stages of a complete thaw. Maybe that will downgrade closer to the time.

Storm 10 · 11-01-2010 9:38pm

Hi MT are we likely to get any of this low in the Galway area ??

GSF · 11-01-2010 10:31pm

Sky are forecasting serious amounts of snow for Devon, Corwall, South Wales and parts od southern Ireland tomorrow from about lunchtime onwards but next to no snow from RTE - strange!

Storm 10 · 11-01-2010 10:35pm

At 6pm news they said the Munster and Leinster would get all this rain and wind now at the 9pm news its going to move up over the whole Country.

snow ghost · 11-01-2010 10:36pm

GSF wrote: »

Sky are forecasting serious amounts of snow for Devon, Corwall, South Wales and parts od southern Ireland tomorrow from about lunchtime onwards but next to no snow from RTE - strange!

Not strange GSF - more a good sign that we'll have a white out in much of the country.

munsterlegend · 11-01-2010 10:41pm

snow ghost wrote: »

Not strange GSF - more a good sign that we'll have a white out in much of the country.

hmm all i can see is rain except on very high ground!

M.T. Cranium · 11-01-2010 11:20pm

UPDATE _ Monday, 10:15 p.m.
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Well, the 18z GFS did not introduce anything too radically different, so it's becoming a nowcast situation and I note that the K1 buoy, located about 200 miles SSW of Cork, is reporting strong SSE winds and a temperature of 11 C with a dew point of 10 C. The low centre is evidently just to the southwest of there now and heading for a point perhaps 50 miles west of Valentia by 10 or 1100h then away to the northwest.

Expect the rain to come sweeping in around 0300h and to cover much of the southern half of the country with mixing issues at elevations of perhaps as low as 100m at first, rising to 300m later. Mixing could be to sleet, freezing rain or snow. Anything could fall heavily for a while, the first hour or two of precip could be a real witches' brew but eventually most places, aside from the northeast zone I outlined (and higher parts of the northwest) should change to rain. Where it stays mostly snow (higher elevations, parts of the north) then you could easily see 10-15 cms.

The winds are going to pick up very rapidly in Cork and Waterford as well as most of the south coastal counties, between 0300 and 0600, if you sleep at all, you'll awake to a full SE gale with gusts well over 50 mph possibly even 60-65 mph, but this will ease gradually by mid-day. The strongest winds will be pulled northwest across Limerick and Clare, and may not be felt so much in other counties, where 30-45 mph winds are more likely to be the peak around mid-day.

I want to stress that snow will melt very rapidly in the downpour and the 8-10 C temps likely to sweep through the south and west central counties, and even around the higher parts of Dublin and Wicklow where it may top off at maybe 5 or 6 C (and 3-4 C where the snow is deep). The rapid snowmelt may overwhelm smaller drainage systems even as early as Tuesday afternoon-evening and eventually amass into considerable flood stages on larger rivers (that will take 18-36 hours, so that Wednesday may find larger rivers near flood stage). From the various pictures and accounts I have seen and read, I think the flooding may be fairly serious so I hope to be wrong on that as you've all had enough of that problem. The counties of Carlow and Kilkenny, possibly Tipps also, should be especially vigilant for flash flooding with so many streams rising in heavily snow-covered areas. But also in rural parts of Kerry, Limerick and Cork, I would be really cautious driving on secondary roads because of the risk of mudslides and bridge or roadway washouts.

Well, if I keep typing I am going to miss the storm altogether. Next update likely to be a little after midnight, batten down the hatches.

M.T. Cranium · 12-01-2010 6:11am

Tuesday, 12 January, 2010 _ 0500h
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ALERTS posted for ... possible wind damage in Kerry, Cork, Waterford, Limerick, Clare and a few other very exposed locations further east ... winds may gust to 70 mph at times from the SSE ... expect minor wind damage such as tree branches down, tiles off roofs, whole trees could be blown over here or there partly because of loosened root adhesion to the waterlogged ground. These winds should peak soon and begin to subside after 1100h. Currently expecting only 40-55 mph gusts in Dublin. (added 0650) The winds in Munster are generally strong enough to suggest locally severe wind impacts like high-sided vehicle rollovers on exposed roadways, shoreline installation damage (winds are coming in at right angles to estuaries and harbours), and construction site damage. All precautions are suggested. Avoid unnecessary travel until mid-day at the earliest. There may be sections of hurricane force winds in Kerry especially in gaps between hills open to the south.

Heavy rain and possible thunderstorms with hail could affect these same areas and later move further north and east. Local rainfalls of 30-50 mms are possible. This rain will probably amount to 20-30 mms further north and east, and may be mixed with sleet or wet snow at times. Flooding is likely to develop rather quickly today due to combined rainfall and snow melt, smaller streams will be prone to overflowing by afternoon/evening, larger rivers will need to be assessed overnight and could possibly be near flood stage in some areas by Wednesday. Flooding can also come due to melting snow unable to drain due to snow clogging of drains.

Snow will begin later this morning in higher parts of the northern counties and inland Mayo and Galway. It is somewhat uncertain where the rain-snow line will end up but probably it will be somewhere around 200-300 metres above sea level, perhaps a bit lower in Ulster. Some snowfalls of 5-15 cms are possible later today. Snow could mix in with sleet or rain elsewhere.

Forecasts remain about the same as yesterday, and these alerts pretty well spell out today's forecast, however, here it is in summary:

TODAY will be windy and wet in most areas with rising temperatures peaking near 8-10 C in the south, 5-7 C in the east, and 2-4 C in the north. Heavy rain will spread north and east, with embedded thunder and hail. Strong southeast winds will hit the south coast before you read this, and continue most of the morning there. These winds will spread further north and east during the morning but won't be quite as strong elsewhere. See the alerts above for more details. Snow will mix in with the rain more frequently as the rain moves north, until some northern areas actually see more snow than rain, with a lot of sleet in some intermediate zones.

It goes without saying that roads will be very messy in a lot of counties today, especially where snow lies on the ground this morning. Watch out for locally flooded out roads, possible bridge washouts, stream overflows especially near any higher ground. Mudslides and high-country snowslides are possible today.

TONIGHT will see the storm abating gradually with much less windy conditions, rather cold again with any rain tending to become sleety and mixing with wet snow, while some snow in Ulster may continue to produce a further 2-4 cms of local accumulation. There may be widespread flooding as a further hazard. Lows will be around 1-3 C. Winds will ease off to SW 10-20 mph in the west, and SE 10-20 mph in the east.

WEDNESDAY will bring more low cloud and fog, drizzle or wet snow, cool temperatures near 3-5 C and lighter winds in general. There could be some accumulating snow on higher ground in the east and north.

THURSDAY may see a bit of sunshine and somewhat milder temperatures, although low cloud and drizzle or wet snow could linger in the far north. Winds will pick up gradually from the south. Morning lows of -3 C could make things very icy in rural areas then daytime highs near +4 to +7 C will give a milder feel again.

FRIDAY will become windy to very windy, rain will move in from the southwest and temperatures may soar to 10 C or higher. This will continue into Saturday and any remnant snow should be long gone by then, but higher mountain snows will be melting too and this could provide a new round of stream flooding.

There appears to be a gradual cooling trend from Sunday onward, and it's quite conceivable that winter will try to stage a comeback for a few days the following week. I wouldn't be surprised if this time is a bit tamer with a fairly rapid breakdown towards the end of the month (when I'm speculating there could be a big storm in the nearby Atlantic heading northeast).

Updates will be coming in hundreds or even thousands on the threads today, I will update this forecast as I believe necessary but you may be hearing a lot of alternate forecast ideas (which is good) and I'll keep watching that "back door" cold front lurking in Wales to make sure it doesn't slam into the east coast unforeseen in this forecast. I think it will link to a developing "pseudo" warm front that can be sketched out at present from just north of Dublin to east of Galway and north into Donegal. North of that, snow seems more likely.

It has been extremely mild here on Monday, with a high near 13 C and extensive snow melt up to 1,500 metres. News reports showed torrents of water running through parking lots at the nearby Olympic venues (not the alpine ski-ing but some other events like snowboarding and ski jumping). They have their work cut out for them getting those sites restored (five weeks to go). More if it happens ...

glossy · 12-01-2010 12:07pm

we will have to send our snow from Ireland you guys for the Olympics,

Hope they get the snow for the events.

Thanks for all your updates

M.T. Cranium · 12-01-2010 12:35pm

UPDATE _ Tuesday, 1130h
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Briefly, the very strong winds should begin to ease off now in the southwest, as the near-hurricane force storm out in the Atlantic pulls further away from the west coast (heading northwest) and leaves behind a moist but cooling circulation in which winds remain southeast and almost backing to east at times, 30-50 mph (should subside further to 20-40 mph).

This will mean that the rain-snow line by elevation will tend to drift lower down with time, so if you've been having rain near 3-4 C it could change to a heavy wet snow at 2-3 C. If your rain has been more like 5-6 C then it could mix with sleet or hail. If you have mist and just drizzle so far and you're in the east or northeast, that could turn to light rain for a while then over to sleet and wet snow. I'm still predicting 5-15 cms of snow over much of the northern half of the country as well as most of Ulster later this afternoon and this evening. This could extend into parts of Dublin but there, the sea and the urban heating will conspire to melt snow that falls at low elevations but the higher districts could see about 3-7 cms.

Eventually, all of this messy weather will be reduced to snow grains or drizzle with temperatures near 1 C by about midnight. A dank fog is likely to develop and people should be ultra-cautious driving because there could be flooding, ice or even debris on the roads and it will be very hard to see very far with the fog.

Really, I've been typing a lot of details, if I had just said "almighty mess" that might have been even better.

Hoping some of the other weather forum regulars will update this as they see fit, I am now officially asleep.

La Madame · 12-01-2010 5:46pm

Had a tree down this morning & there was some flooding over Munster.
All in all back to normal after all that snow & ice

M.T. Cranium · 12-01-2010 9:56pm

UPDATE _ Tuesday, 8:50 p.m.
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Now officially awake again, the snow falling mostly at higher elevations around Dublin and parts of central Ireland may continue for several more hours and could bring a further 10 cms in places. The rain-snow line will continue to drift down towards sea level too, bringing new snowfall to some who have only seen sleet or rain so far. The contrary trend is that moisture is very slowly being exhausted without a new source, basically, the front is raining and snowing and sleeting itself out. There could be a ripple of energy moving along the east coast late tonight so that a heavy wet snow may resume before morning in places.

Tomorrow, I foresee the country divided into two zones, west of a diagonal from inland Donegal to about Waterford, the flow will be gently southwest and temperatures there may come up a degree or two, changing any snow back to drizzle, but amounts may be light in any case. There will be fog over hills and a general misty ambience to it, as snow slowly melts over hills.

The eastern side of the country will be under leftover cold air with temperatures only 1-2 C, and further snow could fall especially higher up, with cold rain or sleet at times near sea level. It will also be foggy over hills.

Thursday, this whole mess will begin to lift and clear away as a moderate southerly wind sets in, and it will get a bit milder, 5-7 C on average, but some snow-covered areas may develop a dense foggy ground cover.

Friday, and I think this is the big weather story now, a second and more powerful thaw will arrive on strong southerly winds, accompanied by late in the day by heavy rainfall, and temperatures will soar to 10 C or higher. This will deliver a knockout blow to remaining snow and start to melt even the higher mountain snows. There could be some renewed and severe flooding from all that, you would have to think. As all reliable models show this and there are no complicating pockets of cold air, etc, I think this is now almost a certainty.

We've been hearing various oracles and seers giving dire warnings of a second round of winter to come later on. While I think this is inevitable to some extent, I'm predicting a brief return to freezing temperatures later this month, and possibly not at all in February which I think may turn out more like the second half of February in 2009, mild and spring-like. I can't rule out perhaps one or two harsh wintry blasts but I do feel that much of the winter is now past. Meanwhile, we have no winter at all here, it is rather incredibly a partly cloudy 14 C at 1 p.m. and I really should find the old golf clubs.

Darwin · 12-01-2010 10:06pm

Thanks for the update MT, you have definitely been clocking in the overtime these past few days

Oh and enjoy that round of golf

Joe Public · 12-01-2010 10:12pm

Thanks MT for all your work, wisdom & wit.

How unusual is your current mild spell of weather?

nacho libre · 12-01-2010 10:14pm

given the duration of this cold period, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the usual winter trend of February being our snowiest month is flipped this year once the atlantic takes over on Friday. However, joe bastardi, if i'm not mistaken, was the only one to predict the severity of this cold period and his prediction of when it would end(around now) was fairly accurate.
so it'll be interesting to see if he is right about the cold returning, but of course anything we see from now on is highly unlikely to be as severe as what has happened.

M.T. Cranium · 12-01-2010 10:47pm

Well our winters are similar to southwest Ireland so 14 C is pretty unusual here, it's typical of an El Nino pattern to see some very mild weather on the west coast of North America, though.

I will welcome a return to more normal weather in Ireland as I've been on almost non-stop since mid-December, it seems. In more tranquil weather, I might be on once to post a forecast and once to read to mid-day reports.

Wonder where Darkman2 is, he got all these threads started and now there's no sign of him.

As to Bastardi, I've actually met the guy, thirty years ago we were both working in the same office and he was pretty eccentric even then (as to whether I was, or am now, a moot point). I think he's hit a nugget this winter but it seems to me that he's been cold-mongering for several years now with these European forecasts, and I'm not sure about his statements that the drivers are all in place, didn't Tiger's wife use the driver on his SUV?

Seriously, the circulation around the northern hemisphere has taken quite a shift in the past week, our warm spell here is a new development for example, it had been fairly cool up until about a week ago. The eastern U.S. is about to warm up substantially after a month of cold weather. The Greenland high has shrivelled up to almost nothing and some forecasts are showing a strong polar vortex near Iceland soon. There is, however, a big cold high edging west in Russia, I assume he has his eyes on that. I did too a week ago, but now I'm wondering if that high is going to do much more than provide a "ramp" for the Atlantic to come steaming back in, and you know what's going to happen if the Atlantic totally wakes up, then it's six weeks of southwest flow. My forecast is based on the thinking that the Russian high will probably edge a bit further west over time and at least push the stronger jet stream winds back to the west slightly in February so it may not be too stormy a month.

Anyway, I should stick to the 3-5 day time period or maybe 3-5 hours. Back to the main thread to see who's insulting whom at this very moment. A lot of noises in the hills this week. :eek:

Pangea · 12-01-2010 11:27pm

nacho libre wrote: »

but of course anything we see from now on is highly unlikely to be as severe as what has happened.

lol nacho u remind me of one of them people that always point out the worst, like people that say 6 days before christmas that " this time next week it will all be over " lol

nacho libre · 13-01-2010 12:02am

Pangea wrote: »

lol nacho u remind me of one of them people that always point out the worst, like people that say 6 days before christmas that " this time next week it will all be over " lol

well, it's the only way to avoid dissapointment:p

i would love it(as Kevin Keegan famously said) if we saw a return of the cold in February but given the blocking highs are declining it's hard to see how that can happen. i assumed one of them was going to build up again but that doesn't look like happening now. also, you have to bear in mind how ununsual this past month's weather is for us. yes, we could see very cold winters like this more often, but it's far more likely we won't - sadly.

Pangea · 13-01-2010 12:17am

I see what your saying , but I rather not think in trends , I just like to think well anything is possible , I know im probably dreaming but anything is possible when
theres been earthquakes in donegal a few years in a row now or even more extraordinary is that theres been snow in Cork lol

patneve · 13-01-2010 12:41am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Well our winters are similar to southwest Ireland so 14 C is pretty unusual here, it's typical of an El Nino pattern to see some very mild weather on the west coast of North America, though.

I will welcome a return to more normal weather in Ireland as I've been on almost non-stop since mid-December, it seems. In more tranquil weather, I might be on once to post a forecast and once to read to mid-day reports.

Wonder where Darkman2 is, he got all these threads started and now there's no sign of him.

As to Bastardi, I've actually met the guy, thirty years ago we were both working in the same office and he was pretty eccentric even then (as to whether I was, or am now, a moot point). I think he's hit a nugget this winter but it seems to me that he's been cold-mongering for several years now with these European forecasts, and I'm not sure about his statements that the drivers are all in place, didn't Tiger's wife use the driver on his SUV?

Seriously, the circulation around the northern hemisphere has taken quite a shift in the past week, our warm spell here is a new development for example, it had been fairly cool up until about a week ago. The eastern U.S. is about to warm up substantially after a month of cold weather. The Greenland high has shrivelled up to almost nothing and some forecasts are showing a strong polar vortex near Iceland soon. There is, however, a big cold high edging west in Russia, I assume he has his eyes on that. I did too a week ago, but now I'm wondering if that high is going to do much more than provide a "ramp" for the Atlantic to come steaming back in, and you know what's going to happen if the Atlantic totally wakes up, then it's six weeks of southwest flow. My forecast is based on the thinking that the Russian high will probably edge a bit further west over time and at least push the stronger jet stream winds back to the west slightly in February so it may not be too stormy a month.

Anyway, I should stick to the 3-5 day time period or maybe 3-5 hours. Back to the main thread to see who's insulting whom at this very moment. A lot of noises in the hills this week. :eek:

I think there are two possible outcomes in the following weeks.
Outcome 1 (the most depressing): Atlantic wins, train of weather systems sweeping in from Atlantic battering Ireland with strong winds and rain; mild southwesterlies.
Outcome 2 (more interesting): Rise of the Azores HP over Ireland/GB and union with Russian HP, causing a MASSIVE Atlantic block (often called the Wejkoff bridge; well that's what its called in Italian weather jargon). This usually causes the cold to plunge into EITHER Eastern/Central/Southern Europe with cold antycylonic days in Ireland. It's a classic configuration (see link). If 'our' side of the bridge in Ireland says further to the West, then our chances of seeing colder air increase.

P.S. That particular chart is from Feb 2005 - Central Europe/Italy saw v. snowy days!

snow ghost · 13-01-2010 1:10am

nacho libre wrote: »

given the duration of this cold period, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the usual winter trend of February being our snowiest month is flipped this year once the atlantic takes over on Friday. However, joe bastardi, if i'm not mistaken, was the only one to predict the severity of this cold period and his prediction of when it would end(around now) was fairly accurate.
so it'll be interesting to see if he is right about the cold returning, but of course anything we see from now on is highly unlikely to be as severe as what has happened.

Nacho, in regards to snow, earlier today was probably the best chance we had for a white out - with the major atlantic precip hitting the cold. The cold dry air in recent weeks wasn't that great except for some moderate snow showers.

I hope that we could still get such a scenario before the winter is out.. the cold might not be so prolonged or intense this time but it could do the job with regards to turning the atlantic precip into a major snowfall.

I hope!

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