NIO

RIGOLO · 23-11-2020 8:55am

Timmaay wrote: »

I'd consider xpeng stock wayyy too extended at the minute and wide open to a citron short report attack etc. NIO however consolidated nicely enough and hopefully going to drive on comfortably back into 50$. And yep we might as well just make a new EV stock superthread here lol.

Whilst NIO stole a march , all 3 seem to moving in tandem at the moment.
Any investor in NIO should probably pay attention and keep up to speed to the whole Chinese EV market sector, and the broader worldwide EV market.

Whats NIOs plan for Europe ? Other than words have the actually made moves in this direction.

Timmaay · 23-11-2020 12:29pm

SOLO is my ev pick today, it got the Citron short selling attack on Thursday so is still beat down, I'm only looking for a quick few dollars on them over next day or so however.

Edit scrap that for the second I'm just reading up about a possible share offering in SOLO lol.

garrettod · 24-11-2020 12:18pm

There's good and bad in the following article, with regards to NIO... brings you back to one simple question really, can it succeed?

It certainly is benefiting from assistance from China, both directly and indirectly, which has to give it a decent chance of success, when you factor in the demand for more EVs in China etc

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nio-motors-nyse-nio-chinese-164539129.html

Timmaay · 01-12-2020 2:32pm

https://ir.nio.com/news-events/news-releases/news-release-details/nio-inc-provides-november-2020-delivery-update
Tl:dr key point from it:

NIO is in the process of accelerating the production capacity expansion in December 2020 to accommodate the increasing order growth

Also good old Goldman Sachs, who famously downgraded it to a sell at 7$ back in June when it had popped to 16$ (pure short selling tactic at the time but it cased plenty of short term grief for investors like myself who had bought up along in the low teens), anyway they have now raised their price target to 59$ lol. No real immediate reaction to either this news but I'd expect to see a lift once the market opens and we get over yesterdays overall market pullback and the Chinese ev fallout from KANDI.

cronos · 01-12-2020 5:23pm

Nio is not having a good day. Bought at 50 now close to 46. Hopefully turns around.

Timmaay · 03-12-2020 12:36am

cronos wrote: »

Nio is not having a good day. Bought at 50 now close to 46. Hopefully turns around.

Today: Hold my beer. All ended well, hopefully everyone with NIO held tight and pulled thought. My only minor regret is I used all my firepower yesterday so couldn't add anymore shares while it was sub40.

cronos · 03-12-2020 1:05am

Timmaay wrote: »

Today: Hold my beer. All ended well, hopefully everyone with NIO held tight and pulled thought. My only minor regret is I used all my firepower yesterday so couldn't add anymore shares while it was sub40.

Indeed. Held and will move forward. I could have added sub 40 but was hard to know the cause of a sustained multi day drop and how far it would go. Was strange as the senate vote should not apply to Nio due to PWC and the Goldman Sachs report upgrading the price target. But anyway slowly in the right direction again. I'll be happy with a slow and steady gain as I plan to hold long.

Timmaay · 03-12-2020 1:50pm

Wow, that use to be a sea of red with Tesla being everyone's favourite.

Browney7 · 03-12-2020 11:11pm

Timmaay wrote: »

Wow, that use to be a sea of red with Tesla being everyone's favourite.

Interesting to see cd projekt red number one in Poland.

sk8board · 05-12-2020 11:23am

Timmaay wrote: »

Wow, that use to be a sea of red with Tesla being everyone's favourite.

Got this yesterday too, had a good smile and would view it as a massive Sell indicator.

garrettod · 05-12-2020 4:28pm

I'm sticking with them.

Ultimately, my reasoning is :

* they have actual cars out on the road, and available for sale

* their sales are increasing, quarter on quarter

* their production is increasing, and they've capacity to further increase

* they have significant cash resources, to support their growth

* they've clearly got support in China, which is a massive market

* their battery swap idea offers a far better solution, then the alternative park and recharge for hours (not to mention the fact that it offers an additional income stream)

cronos · 05-12-2020 4:32pm

garrettod wrote: »

I'm sticking with them.

Ultimately, my reasoning is :

* they have actual cars out on the road, and available for sale - the aren't just another bunnies with a nice idea

* their sales are going up

* they have significant cash resources, to support their growth

* they've clearly got support in China, which is a massive market

* their battery swap idea offers a far better solution, then the alternative park and recharge for hours (not to mention the fact that it offers an additional income stream)

I wonder do they have patents on the battery swap idea? How easy is it to swap a battery? I wonder can other car companies copy this should they so choose.

I'm holding in Nio as it was always a speculative investment. Would expect a level of volatility within the 20 percent range either way. It's a long term play for me. I'd be more worried about the impact of the Tesla share price suddenly dropping but again I'm sure if it did it's a short term thing rather than long term.

garrettod · 05-12-2020 4:34pm

Hi,

I've read that they can swap a battery in under five minutes, in fact I saw an article where their management said it can be done in under three minutes, so it must be an easy enough process.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nio-strong-footing-tap-chinas-140602919.html

I don't know what protection they've got, to stop others replicating their idea for swapping batteries, but assume they've taken precautions. They've clearly got first mover advantage, but it's clearly a capital intensive project, in its own right.

That said, there's also an arguement in favour of bringing in battery swap as the standard, given the time saving benefits, and cheaper cost of getting EVs into widespread private ownership. From what I gather, renting a battery, rather than buying one, could reduce the cost of buying a car by up to €5k.

Standard Toaster · 05-12-2020 7:56pm

NIO have hundreds of patents filed in the US for various car tech, especially around battery swapping.

They have obtained more than 1,200 power swap related patents and have participated in the compilation of more than 20 power swap standards.

That's worth a fortune alone.

https://patents.justia.com/assignee/nio-usa-inc

Timmaay · 30-12-2020 11:28pm

NIO hiring in Norway, looks like they will be expanding to Europe soon.

garrettod · 01-01-2021 4:52am

Timmaay wrote: »

NIO hiring in Norway, looks like they will be expanding to Europe soon.

Didn't they name Norway, as the first European country that they were expanding into, during 2021 - I'm sure they did?

Timmaay · 01-01-2021 1:26pm

garrettod wrote: »

Didn't they name Norway, as the first European country that they were expanding into, during 2021 - I'm sure they did?

I actually think Denmark gonna be the 1st, but probably both in 2021, both high adaptors of EVs. Dec delivery figures the next NIO event, they will need something like 6300 to hit their q4 delivery expectations, nov was a record at just over 5k delivered, and the only way they will hit the 6300 is if they have got the dual shift up and running in the factory, that will allow them to knock out 7500 or so per month, but will probably take time to iron out any issues. NIO day Jan 9th also, hard to know is that priced in already though. Actually out of interest when do most companies usually product q4 earnings results, or do they just skip straight to the full years earnings?

In any case all this is short term noise, not in my wildest dreams when I bought at like 5.90 and up along in the teens back in June did I think we'd be sitting here at almost 50 end of the year.

garrettod · 02-01-2021 6:38pm

The extra US$2.65bn that they raised in Q4, 2020, will help with increasing production and marketing, along with R&D, in 2021.

I thnk they go straight to Year End results, rather than announcing Q4 earnings seperately. I'm expecting results in March 2021.

Timmaay · 03-01-2021 2:49pm

Timmaay wrote: »

I actually think Denmark gonna be the 1st, but probably both in 2021, both high adaptors of EVs. Dec delivery figures the next NIO event, they will need something like 6300 to hit their q4 delivery expectations, nov was a record at just over 5k delivered, and the only way they will hit the 6300 is if they have got the dual shift up and running in the factory, that will allow them to knock out 7500 or so per month, but will probably take time to iron out any issues. NIO day Jan 9th also, hard to know is that priced in already though. Actually out of interest when do most companies usually product q4 earnings results, or do they just skip straight to the full years earnings?

In any case all this is short term noise, not in my wildest dreams when I bought at like 5.90 and up along in the teens back in June did I think we'd be sitting here at almost 50 end of the year.

7007 Dec deliveries woohoo.

richie123 · 03-01-2021 7:30pm

Timmaay wrote: »

7007 Dec deliveries woohoo.

Go out now and buy more

Standard Toaster · 03-01-2021 11:17pm

https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/nio-launches-nio-certified-used-154516990.html

Also announced today, this is big.
Gonna buy more first thing.

garrettod · 04-01-2021 3:28pm

That's good, alright.

"Nio said deliveries more than doubled from a year ago to 43,728 vehicles" (for y/e 2020, I assume).

That's a decent result, given where NIO have come from. However, to keep things in perspective, it's only about 8-9% of Tesla's sales, for 2020.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/04/chinese-electric-car-start-up-nio-doubles-deliveries-as-tesla-competition-rises.html

With notable growth in production during recent months, a new sedan being launched etc. They should be able to put 60,000 plus cars out on the road this year. Perhaps more.

NIO Day, 9th January, should help the price over the next few days.

DutchYurt · 04-01-2021 9:02pm

Reckon it's a good time to get in or should their be more turbulence over the coming weeks? today was a rough day.

bcklschaps · 04-01-2021 10:12pm

Want to get in to NIO also but don't like buying shares that are rising this quickly. Feel there must be a plateau at some stage. Hopefully tommorow?

Timmaay · 05-01-2021 12:03am

DutchYurt wrote: »

Reckon it's a good time to get in or should their be more turbulence over the coming weeks? today was a rough day.

Being blunt again with you Dutch haha, no you've probably missed the boat, where were you the last few weeks when it was in the low 40s, well beat down from its peak of 57, but nicely holding support?, That was the time to be dollar averaging into it, waiting for it to build. Personally I'd say you probably need to pick afew companies that you really really like, do plenty of homework on them, and be ready to buy any dips that they clearly seem too beat down, rather than trying to jump in on the likes of NIO on a +10% day, that's what I'd call fomo. Having said that hopefully NIO will still push on across the next week leading up to NIO day on Jan 9th, but there is a strong possibility that NIO day is already priced in, and it will sell off immediately after (or maybe more likely immediately before lol) NIO day.

Standard Toaster · 05-01-2021 10:50am

bcklschaps wrote: »

Want to get in to NIO also but don't like buying shares that are rising this quickly. Feel there must be a plateau at some stage. Hopefully tommorow?

The big money is still buying.
I seen $19,344,366 buyer of 358,229 @$54.00 and a
$6,000,000+ buyer @$53.40 yesterday.

I'm in since the low $13s

garrettod · 05-01-2021 12:02pm

Standard Toaster wrote: »

Those average 12 month price forecasts are interesting, to say the least...

Here's hoping they are right!

DutchYurt · 05-01-2021 4:30pm

Timmaay wrote: »

Being blunt again with you Dutch haha, no you've probably missed the boat, where were you the last few weeks when it was in the low 40s, well beat down from its peak of 57, but nicely holding support?, That was the time to be dollar averaging into it, waiting for it to build. Personally I'd say you probably need to pick afew companies that you really really like, do plenty of homework on them, and be ready to buy any dips that they clearly seem too beat down, rather than trying to jump in on the likes of NIO on a +10% day, that's what I'd call fomo. Having said that hopefully NIO will still push on across the next week leading up to NIO day on Jan 9th, but there is a strong possibility that NIO day is already priced in, and it will sell off immediately after (or maybe more likely immediately before lol) NIO day.

Thanks man, still kicking myself for selling in the single digits - didn't get to pay as much attention over xmas. Bluntness is the only way

Fastly had me concerned with its rise and meteoric fall so I missed the boat. Not to worry! Thanks for the input!

Atlas_IRL · 05-01-2021 4:47pm

DutchYurt wrote: »

Thanks man, still kicking myself for selling in the single digits - didn't get to pay as much attention over xmas. Bluntness is the only way Fastly had me concerned with its rise and meteoric fall so I missed the boat. Not to worry! Thanks for the input!

I bought it originally at 3.30 but didn't do enough research on it and sold at 6.60, bought back in at 27 and 46. My favourite stock at the moment because I have done the research now, lesson learned.

masterboy123 · 06-01-2021 9:50pm

It's down by almost 5%
I feel there is some risk? I have couple of shares with Nio.

NIO

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