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Tuesday, 11 May, 2021
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 11 to 17 May, 2021 --
-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values (more so with daytime highs than overnight lows)
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal in the south, near normal in central counties, Leinster and Ulster, and locally about 25 to 50 per cent below normal in parts of Connacht.
-- Sunshine will average only about half the normal amount, and winds will continue mainly rather light, occasionally moderate by the weekend.
FORECASTS
TODAY will see another outbreak of heavy showers and local thunderstorms, some producing hail, over the inland southwest but this time they seem more likely to remain in place, moving only very gradually into parts of the southeast by later in the day. Some parts of Connacht and Ulster may have a generally dry day, with a few brighter spells. Leinster will see variable amounts of cloud and isolated showers. Highs for all regions close to 14 C. About 15-25 mm rainfall potential in counties of west Munster, 5-15 mm east Munster into south Leinster.
TONIGHT will bring a gradual end to the showers in the south and some clear intervals with rather cold overnight lows as a result (2-7 C).
WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY the weather pattern will be relatively stagnant with similar outcomes each day, mostly cloudy skies and scattered outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms, some with hail. On the average most places can expect to see 5-10 mm rainfalls each day but this could be locally as high as 15-20 mm. Highs each day will be around 14 C, overnight lows generally around 5 C.
By SATURDAY an approaching Atlantic frontal system will bring intervals of rain, and it will remain showery on SUNDAY with highs both days around 14 C. Rainfalls of about 10-20 mm are likely over the weekend. By MONDAY there could be outbreaks of heavier rain as this next system does roughly the same as the last one, grinding to a halt near Ireland for several days. The rest of NEXT WEEK then looks unsettled and similar to this week. Longer term guidance begins to show a bit more variation in temperature with warmer air sometimes getting involved although not dominating, so that by the fourth week of May there could be some days reaching highs closer to 20 C.
My local weather on Monday was cloudy with a few breaks of blue sky, unfortunately the sun did not manage to find them as they were a bit too low to the horizon, but rain was mostly confined to higher slopes nearby and was turning to virga overhead here. It remained quite chilly without much sunshine at about 15 C.0 -
Wednesday, 12 May, 2021
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 12 to 18 May 2021 --
-- Temperatures will average about 1 deg below normal, a blend of days being 1-2 below and nights near or slightly above normal.
-- Rainfalls will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal, with parts of the northwest possibly closer to average.
-- Sunshine will average about 50 to 75 per cent of normal values but amounts will be variable from place to place as slow moving cloud systems compete with dry slots offering considerable sunshine. The midlands may see more sunshine than other regions.
-- Wind speeds will be generally rather light to moderate.
FORECASTS
TODAY some showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop over Munster and these will slowly move further east and then northeast, to cover much of south Leinster by afternoon. A separate area of heavy showers has emerged from Scotland into northern Ulster and this will track south into other parts of Ulster and then Connacht during the afternoon. A few places could escape both systems and remain dry. Any morning sunshine will likely fade behind increasing cloud. 10 to 20 mm rainfalls are possible with these disturbances, and some thunderstorms could produce hail. Highs 13 to 16 C.
TONIGHT will see a clearing trend again with showers more isolated, lows 1 to 4 C.
THURSDAY will have new outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms, the central counties seem most at risk for heavier amounts. A slight northerly breeze will feel a bit cooler than these past few days, highs 10 to 14 C.
FRIDAY will have variable amounts of cloud and outbreaks of showery rain, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 11 to 15 C.
SATURDAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and showery outbreaks of rain with lows near 7 C and highs around 14 C.
SUNDAY will bring cloudy skies with a few breaks, and heavy showers, isolated thunderstorms, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.
MONDAY will be overcast with rain becoming heavy at times, lows near 8 C and highs 12 to 14 C.
The outlook for next week is for this unsettled weather regime to continue with further pulses of heavy rainfall likely towards Thursday 20th and the following weekend. Any improvements later in the month may be rather faint.
My general outlook for summer is fairly simple, this unsettled and rather cool pattern seems likely to persist into parts of June and there could be slow improvement through late June and July with a good chance for the situation to reverse to warm and dry weather at times in late July and parts of August. So the key word there is improving, but at the same time the rather localized nature of the disturbed weather the past few days points to the difficulty of establishing anything much more than a general trend, specific locations could vary in all time scales as we saw yesterday where some enjoyed a lot of sunshine.0 -
Thursday, 13 May, 2021
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 13 to 19 May 2021 --
-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal values (which by now would be 15-17 C daytime highs and 5-7 C overnight lows). The greater part of this deficit will be in the daytime readings.
-- Rainfall will gradually add up to near normal amounts in many places, or about 20-25 mm in total, but a few parts of the inland north could see more.
-- Sunshine will be infrequent and it will take some luck to get even up to half the usual amount of 6 hours a day.
-- Wind speeds will be generally rather light but will increase to moderate at times this weekend.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, these mostly in the west. Although showers will be less frequent in most areas, Ulster and parts of north Leinster could see more persistent rainfalls of 5-10 mm. Elsewhere, trace to 2 mm amounts seem more likely. Rather cool with highs 10 to 14 C.
TONIGHT will become partly cloudy with showers more isolated in the north, lows 2 to 5 C.
FRIDAY will bring a mixture of cloud and sunshine with scattered outbreaks of showery light rain, becoming a steady light rain by evening in west Munster. Cool with highs only 10 to 14 C.
SATURDAY will be mostly cloudy with occasional rain, only about 5 mm is expected and some brighter intervals could develop by afternoon. Highs 11 to 15 C.
SUNDAY will be cloudy with some sunny breaks and occasional showers, again about 5 mm expected, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.
MONDAY will be partly cloudy with occasional showers, breezy at times (westerly 40-60 km/hr) with highs near 14 C.
TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with just isolated showers, highs near 16 C.
WEDNESDAY will bring increasing cloud and rain late in the day, lasting into THURSDAY. Highs both days about 15 C.
By FRIDAY and the weekend of 22nd-23rd, quite cool in northerly breezes, isolated showers, highs 12 to 15 C and also quite chilly at night, even a slight risk of frosts returning by late weekend into Monday 24th.
From there to end of May, somewhat warmer in stages, with some possibility that the weather pattern will return to somewhat more normal temperatures for late May.
My local weather on Wednesday was overcast but quite warm with a high near 19 C, and rain began around early evening with perhaps 2-3 mm accumulation to midnight.0 -
Friday, 14 May, 2021
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 14 to 20 May, 2021
-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average near normal to 25 per cent above.
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.
-- Wind speeds will be light to moderate, and wind directions turning more northerly at times.
FORECASTS
TODAY will have some morning sunny breaks, most prevalent in west Munster and parts of Connacht. Cloud will increase around mid-day with overcast skies in most places by afternoon. Some outbreaks of showery rain, more widespread in the north, 3 to 5 mm amounts expected. Rain will spread into west Munster by late afternoon or evening from the west. Highs 12 to 15 C.
TONIGHT will be overcast with occasional rain, 5 to 10 mm expected. Lows 6 to 8 C.
SATURDAY will have widespread showers with a few brighter intervals developing by afternoon, isolated thunderstorms possible in the midlands. Highs 13 to 16 C.
SUNDAY will have some outbreaks of light rain followed by variable cloud and showers or patchy drizzle, turning a bit cooler in light northerly winds, lows 5 to 7 C and highs 12 to 14 C.
MONDAY and TUESDAY will bring variable cloud and a few showers, cool, lows 4 to 6 C and highs 12 to 14 C.
WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY look similar but with some chance of longer sunny spells developing in a few places, temperatures falling slightly further at night mostly, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 12 to 14 C.
FRIDAY and SATURDAY then look partly cloudy and cool with lows -1 to +2 C with local frosts returning, and highs around 13 C.
The OUTLOOK is for warmer weather to develop in the final week of May, with perhaps a return to normal or even slightly above normal temperatures at times (around 20 C).
My local weather on Thursday was sunny and pleasant with a high near 19 C.0 -
Saturday, 15 May, 2021
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 15 to 21 May, 2021
-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average near normal in the north, to 50 per cent above normal in parts of the south.
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal. Wind speeds generally light to moderate, may increase to moderately strong at times mid-week.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals, these more frequent in parts of west Munster, but expect rather changeable weather if it does clear up briefly as heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms will form through the mid-day and afternoon hours. Further east and north, occasional outbreaks of showery light rain will continue but one or two heavier showers could develop there too. Rainfall amounts generally 7 to 15 mm. Highs 12 to 15 C.
TONIGHT will continue partly to mostly cloudy with showers, less widespread by midnight, lows 4 to 7 C.
SUNDAY will see another cycle of showers and thunderstorms developing in mostly cloudy skies, highs 12 to 15 C.
MONDAY will be partly cloudy with showers, cool and breezy, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 12 to 15 C.
TUESDAY will continue partly cloudy with showers, lows 3 to 6 C and highs 12 to 15 C.
Around WEDNESDAY or possibly WEDNESDAY NIGHT into THURSDAY morning, an interval of heavier rain is likely as an Atlantic storm tracking near the south coast brings 10-20 mm rainfalls and easterly winds for a time, with temperatures steady around 10 to 13 C. Timing is a bit uncertain from different guidance but the event itself seems quite likely at some point in that time frame. Once it passes, a slightly cooler northerly flow will develop in its wake, and by later THURSDAY into FRIDAY, cool and breezy with passing showers, winds northerly 30-50 km/hr and highs only around 10 to 13 C. By the weekend, skies will be partly cloudy with longer clear intervals in this same cooler air mass which could bring back the risk of isolated patchy frosts again. Highs would then continue to be down from normal values around 11 to 15 C.
The promise of any warming in the final week has been somewhat downgraded as quite a large mass of colder air seems to be involved in this northerly outbreak, warmer conditions attempt to replace that from time to time with limited success so there could continue to be somewhat cooler than average temperatures most days in the final week of May with further frontal disturbances from time to time, although in a rather variable pattern with some dry days in the mix. Highs would most likely recover a bit to the 14 to 17 C range.
My local weather on Friday was sunny with a high near 21 C.0 -
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Sunday, 16 May, 2021
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 16 to 22 May, 2021 --
-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal values.
-- Sunshine will average 50 per cent of normal.
-- Winds will remain fairly light to moderate until Wednesday night but then could become strong for much of Thursday before abating.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy, with showers and isolated thunderstorms by mid-day and afternoon, rainfalls in the range of 5 to 10 mm for most places, and highs 13 to 15 C.
TONIGHT will become partly cloudy with fewer showers, cool with lows 3 to 7 C.
MONDAY will be partly cloudy with showers, some longer dry spells and sunny breaks could develop and highs will be in the 13 to 15 C range.
TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with showers, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 12 to 14 C.
WEDNESDAY will bring some morning dry spells and limited sunshine then increasing cloud, rain sweeping in from the Atlantic by late in the day as winds increase rapidly. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 13 to 15 C.
THURSDAY will be windy and wet as an unusually strong Atlantic low hits the west coast and then weakens to drift across the southern half of the country. Northern regions will have very cool temperatures, easterly winds 50 to 80 km/hr and 20-30 mm rainfalls with temperatures steady 8 to 10 C. Southern regions will get into somewhat milder air with spells of heavy rain, possible thunderstorms, and gale force southwest winds in coastal areas 60 to 100 km/hr. These winds may cause some disruption and minor damage to trees. Later in the day the storm will be less intense but showery weather will continue and winds will become northwest 40 to 70 km/hr. Lows near 8 C and highs 12 to 14 C for the south.
FRIDAY will be partly cloudy and cool with passing showers, lows near 6 C and highs 12 to 15 C. Northwest winds will continue for a while before a southwest flow resumes.
The OUTLOOK is rather uncertain, model runs keep changing considerably from one time to the next, and in the past few tries we have seen continued cool and unsettled, warmer and drier, and now a mixture, so the best idea here is to expect a bit of everything in the final week of May, perhaps some partial relief from the cool temperatures but not as certain to escape the cloud and rain.
My local weather on Saturday was sunny and warm with a high near 25 C.0 -
Monday, 17 May, 2021
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 17 to 23 May, 2021
-- Temperatures will average about 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 25 per cent above normal values.
-- Sunshine will average about 75 per cent of normal.
-- Winds will remain rather light except for an interval of stronger winds expected Thursday possibly lasting into Friday.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be partly cloudy with some increase in cloud by mid-day and afternoon, isolated showers at first, then more widespread showers developing, some becoming heavy with thunder and hail. Rainfalls quite variable from place to place, but should average about 5 mm. Highs 13 to 16 C.
TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to clear at times with showers ending, lows 2 to 5 C.
TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with a few showers, more concentrated in Munster and Connacht. Highs 12 to 15 C.
WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with showers developing, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 12 to 15 C.
THURSDAY will be breezy to windy at times, with occasional rain, winds at least 50-80 km/hr from the southwest except for some parts of Ulster and north Connacht which could see easterly winds. There has been some uncertainty introduced into timing of this system, and it has affected most guidance at different times in the past day, so we're not too sure whether this unsettled spell will persist all through Friday as well, or come to a more rapid conclusion; the faster the low comes through, the stronger the wind gusts are likely to be. So the forecasts for Thursday and Friday are based on a blend of the different possible speeds. For Thursday would expect about 10 mm of rain, possibly as much as 20 mm locally, and highs reaching 14 to 17 C in the south, staying cooler further north around 11 to 14 C.
FRIDAY will most likely be showery and breezy, but could remain very unsettled if the low takes that long to move through Ireland. Winds are likely to be around 40 to 70 km/hr from west to northwest, but this could moderate sooner if the low turns out to be faster moving. Temperatures quite likely to be cool, 12 to 15 C.
The OUTLOOK is also uncertain with different suggestions about what might happen once this low does move into the Baltic regions by the weekend. Some guidance shows another rather strong low developing and moving towards the northwest regions of Ireland by about Saturday. Other guidance has a more settled outcome. Eventually most guidance does allow for more average late May weather conditions to develop which should mean that some time during the fourth week temperatures will increase at least slowly and could reach 17 to 20 C by later in the week.
As to the uncertainty on the Thursday low pressure area, that should begin to come into better focus later today and I would expect the next forecast to have a more definite timetable and track for this low.
My local weather was sunny and very warm on Sunday, highs reaching 27 C. We have one more day like that and then will be seeing much cooler and wet weather setting in here as a cold front moves through Monday night.0 -
Tuesday, 18 May, 2021
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 18 to 24 May, 2021 --
-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average near normal to 25 per cent above normal in the inland north.
-- Sunshine will average 75 per cent of normal values.
-- Rather light winds until Thursday then strong winds gradually abating to moderate on Friday, generally moderate wind speeds from then to Monday.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be partly cloudy with just a few widely scattered showers at first, but a somewhat more organized band of showers can be expected by afternoon through the midlands, moving east to reach the east coast by evening. This will bring about 3-5 mm rainfalls to most places. Highs 12 to 15 C.
TONIGHT will bring an end to the showers for a while, and partly cloudy to clear skies will develop again, lows in the 2 to 5 C range.
WEDNESDAY will have some brighter intervals in the morning to mid-day hours, then increasing cloud, just isolated showers mostly in parts of west Munster and northern counties. Winds generally light southerly but increasing by evening to southerly 40-70 km/hr. Highs 12 to 15 C.
OVERNIGHT into THURSDAY periods of rain and strong southwest winds developing, 50 to 80 km/hr, variable cloud with passing showers by mid-day and afternoon, highs in the south 14 to 17 C, but the north will stay in somewhat cooler air and winds will turn more to an easterly direction as low pressure arrives on the west coast by late in the day, leading to a steady rain in the north (10-20 mm amounts generally in all regions).
FRIDAY this disturbance should be steadily moving away into Britain leaving behind a moderate west to northwest flow (40 to 70 km/hr) with partly cloudy skies and isolated showers, cool with temperatures steady around 11 to 13 C.
SATURDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast and cool with outbreaks of showery rain at times, winds westerly at about 40 to 70 km/hr. Lows near 4 C and highs 12 to 14 C.
SUNDAY and MONDAY will be quite cool as winds turn more northerly, and temperatures could be only around 12 to 14 C for highs, with occasional showers.
The OUTLOOK is for drier weather to set in later next week, still unclear whether there will be an accompanying warmer temperature trend or just more sunshine making it perhaps feel a bit warmer even if temperatures don't necessarily come up much. There are some guidance maps suggesting a bit of an easterly flow with this stronger high pressure area, if so that will perhaps lead to an east-west difference of several degrees (14 to 19 C) with the west warmer.
My local weather stayed sunny most of the day with a rapid increase in cloud by evening, and showers just off to our west marking a cold front, gusty south winds during the day and very warm temperatures near 26 C. It will turn a lot colder overnight here and there's some chance of seeing snow mixing in with the cold rain we're expecting, certainly snow will return to local hilltops that have just lost their snow cover in this warm spell.0 -
Wednesday, 19 May, 2021
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 19 to 25 May 2021
-- Temperatures will average 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average near normal, to 25% above normal in parts of the inland north.
-- Sunshine will average about 75 per cent of normal values.
-- Wind speeds will become moderate tonight and strong at times on Thursday, then back to moderate for most of the period Friday to Monday, somewhat lighter again after that.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be partly cloudy with just a few isolated showers; cloud will begin to increase from the west this afternoon. Highs 13 to 15 C.
TONIGHT will be overcast with occasional rain, winds southerly 40 to 70 km/hr becoming quite blustery near the south and west coasts. Lows 7 to 9 C.
THURSDAY will be breezy to windy at times, and wet with intervals of rain, breaking to showers across the south but staying more like a constant light to moderate rain in parts of the north. With low pressure tracking in towards Galway Bay, most of Connacht, Ulster and north Leinster will have southeast winds backing to northeast during the night, and 10-20 mm of rain, highs only 12 to 14 C. The south will have moderate to strong southwest winds, veering westerly by evening, and also 10-20 mm rain, highs 14 to 17 C. Winds near the south coast could reach gale force (70-110 km/hr).
FRIDAY will see gradual clearing during the morning and sunny intervals most of the day, with bands of showers likely to develop in moderate west to northwest winds. Lows near 7 C and highs 12 to 14 C. Winds west-northwest at about 50 to 80 km/hr.
SATURDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with occasional light rain, lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C.
SUNDAY will be mostly cloudy with occasional rain, breezy and cool, lows near 6 C and highs 12 to 14 C.
MONDAY will have variable amounts of cloud and some showers, cool with lows near 5 C and highs 11 to 13 C.
Most of next week is likely to remain rather cool, but there is at least some chance of longer dry spells developing as high pressure begins to build to the north. In a light northeast wind flow, the west might begin to see temperatures returning to near average at times (17-19 C) but the east will be cooled by the Irish Sea in this wind pattern.
My local weather turned sharply colder and there were passing showers of hail and snow pellets, with temperatures around 9 C between the showers, somewhat colder when there was precipitation. Quite strong wind gusts at times from the west to northwest but it has calmed down this evening.0 -
Thursday, 20 May, 2021
Forecasts for Ireland
Blog format returns today, the trends are unfolding as expected and basically the same trends as we've seen most of this month will continue for a few more days, followed by a drier trend next week.
An Atlantic low pressure system that would not be out of place in November has been moving steadily towards the west coast. The centre of this low will make a landfall in Galway later this afternoon and then will cross the central counties to emerge into the Irish Sea around Dundalk late tonight.
If you are located near this track, including Galway, most of the midlands and Dublin, expect winds to become more moderate later today when the low is closer, and in some cases there may be a brief calm interval with the low overhead (that more likely in Meath than Dublin). Further north, east winds will continue and will remain in the range of 50 to 80 km/hr. Rain will be steadier further north and more showery in nature further south, but eventually most places will get similar totals of about 20 mm (30-50 mm localized maximum rainfalls could occur over higher terrain especially in Kerry and west Cork).
It will be quite rough off the south coast with winds of 80-120 km/hr, and some of these gusts will reach at least outer headlands if not a little further inland at times in the south. Around Dublin, wind gusts of 70-90 km/hr seem likely for much of the day before that lull begins around midnight. The south coast winds will be south to southwest for most of the day, veering to westerly then northwesterly overnight. The Atlantic coast will also be quite windy although closer proximity to the low centre probably means somewhat more moderate speeds for Clare and south Galway. In some places winds will begin to veer from southeast to southwest later this morning and further north they will back from southeast to northeast, depending on which side of the low track you are located.
Temperatures will be in the 13-15 C range most of the day in the south, could peak a bit higher anywhere that the sun pokes through for any length of time. Along the track of the low would expect cloud to be persistent and temperatures steady 12-13 C. Further north it may be a few degrees cooler in the east winds.
By tonight, the low will be over Leinster and then by morning near the Isle of Man, and this will promote a gradual turn of winds in all regions to northwest, or northerly in east Ulster. These winds will be fairly strong in the range of 60 to 90 km/hr. There will only be small additional amounts of rainfall in this phase of the event. The overnight lows will be around 8 to 10 C.
By FRIDAY the skies will be partially clearing with bands of showers likely in continued blustery northwest winds of 50 to 80 km/hr, temperatures will only recover a few degrees to about 12 to 14 C, and some sunny breaks will be mixed in with passing showers in some places.
Then on SATURDAY, winds will turn back to the south-southwest ahead of another Atlantic low, this one of more modest intensity, but still quite strong for this time of year. Rain will spread in during the day and it will be rather cool with highs only around 13 to 15 C. Rain will be heavy at times overnight into SUNDAY morning and there could be another 10 to 20 mm of rain in places. SUNDAY will become partly cloudy to overcast with winds west-southwest at about 40-70 km/hr, passing showers or outbreaks of light rain, and highs near 13 C. MONDAY will see the dying remnants of this low drifting across Connacht and Ulster, so it will remain unsettled and mostly cloudy with temperatures still quite depressed at around 12 or 13 C.
From about TUESDAY on, there will be a welcome change in the weather, not any large-scale warmup because high pressure is going to stay a bit too far to the west, keeping a slight northeasterly flow in place. That will probably lead to lower temperatures in Leinster and east Ulster than other regions, so would expect several days with highs of about 14 C in the east, 18-20 C in the west responding to longer sunny breaks. There could also be some patchy cloud in the vicinity of the Irish Sea in this otherwise dry spell. Parts of Britain will benefit too, but they will also be somewhat closer to a source of weak low pressure areas that could form over the North Sea into Belgium and Holland, spreading cloud into the southeast and even some rain at times, but that may avoid Ireland either totally or mostly during the latter portions of the week.
Rather than any scenario of a long gradual warming trend that could happen with stalled out high pressure, it looks more like the high will depart for the central Atlantic Ocean in early June and open things back up to unsettled northwesterly flow which cannot be any warmer than average at best (and will likely be a few degrees cooler).
In the central Atlantic now, a low is forming and heading west-southwest towards Bermuda where it could briefly become the first named tropical storm of 2021. Further west, high pressure is stationary over the east coast of the U.S. so the golf event there (PGA Championship) will enjoy some fine settled weather all weekend.
My local weather continued rather cold, with clear skies and a slight frost at dawn, then a steady buildup of cloud ending up with mixed showers of rain and hail by afternoon, highs only around 12 C.0 -
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Friday, 21 May, 2021
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 21 to 27 May, 2021
-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal values (now at around 18 C for max, 8 C for min).
-- Rainfall will average about 75 per cent of normal, overnight Saturday-Sunday the heaviest this coming week.
-- Sunshine will average about 75 per cent of normal, a blend of 50 per cent to Monday, then 100-125 per cent.
-- Winds will gradually drop back to moderate levels later today, and remain there most of the time.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be cloudy with a few sunny breaks, and some further outbreaks of rain in gusty northwest to north winds of 50 to 80 km/hr. There may be some improvements by this afternoon in western counties at least. Highs only reaching about 12-14 C and some higher areas closer to 10 C. About 3-5 mm further rainfalls likely.
TONIGHT will see some partial clearing with only isolated showers, quite cold for this time of year, lows 1 to 4 C.
SATURDAY will have variable amounts of cloud at first, then overcast skies by afternoon, less windy and backing to a southerly direction by mid-day or afternoon, highs 12 to 15 C. SATURDAY NIGHT will become rather windy for a time with heavy showers developing, 10-15 mm rain expected by Sunday morning with temperatures steady in the range of 6 to 9 C.
SUNDAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and passing showers, some heavy with thunder and hail. A further 5-10 mm rain likely. Highs 12 to 15 C.
MONDAY will be mostly cloudy with occasional light rain, cool, lows near 7 C and highs 12 to 15 C.
TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with northerly breezes, cool, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 13 to 16 C.
WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy with more generous sunshine than most days recently, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 14 to 18 C.
THURSDAY may be somewhat more cloudy as a weak disturbance passes, scattered showers but not much accumulation from them, lows near 7 C and highs near 16 C.
The further outlook is a bit uncertain but most guidance has a dry theme, some dispute about wind directions which would influence what part of the country gets warmer temperatures that seem to be inevitable for the end of the month (starting to recover to near normal values by the final weekend and Monday 31st). One model that has been doing well recently shows the warmth being from a westerly flow which would favour Leinster, other guidance is sticking to that earlier theme of an easterly wind developing as they have high pressure further north, and that would favour Connacht and west Munster. In any case, it should be an improved weather pattern late in the month, but any hope of that being prolonged and lasting into June needs to be set aside for a while as we may get a bit of a reload of the current pattern in early June, hopefully it will be a weaker and less sustained version with an earlier exit to warmer and drier conditions.
My local weather was rather chilly with passing light showers and evidence of snow falling above 1500 metres (yesterday it was at our doorsteps almost coming down to 1100 metres). The high was about 12 C. However, it wasn't very breezy so we found it tolerable for golfing, with just a few spits of rain that didn't accumulate.
That first named storm of the year could "pop" any time now according to the NHC, it is located about 300 miles east-northeast of Bermuda and heading in their direction. I hear that the Greek letters are being retired from use which is a shame because I was looking forward to Omega but instead they will just keep on with new names if they run out of old ones. Another active season is being predicted.0 -
Saturday, 22 May, 2021
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 22 to 28 May 2021
-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values.
-- Light to moderate winds will prevail with a few stronger gusts likely late tonight.
FORECASTS
TODAY will have some sunny intervals to start, with a gradual increase in cloud by mid-day and becoming fully overcast this afternoon. Some light rain could develop near Atlantic coasts late afternoon into early evening. Light winds for the first half of the day then a moderate southerly breeze of 30 to 50 km/hr. Highs 13 to 16 C.
TONIGHT will become rather windy with squally showers or outbreaks of moderate rain bringing 5-10 mm by morning. Winds south to southwest 50 to 70 km/hr. Lows near 7 C.
SUNDAY will see the band of heavy showers moving off to the east by late morning, followed by variable cloud and more showers developing, chance of a thunderstorm with hail in some parts of the midlands and Leinster. Highs around 14 C. Winds westerly 40 to 60 km/hr.
MONDAY will be cloudy with a few sunny breaks, and occasional showers, quite cool with lows near 7 C and highs 12 to 14 C.
TUESDAY will become partly cloudy with showers more isolated although continuing to be widespread in east Ulster and north Leinster during the morning. Lows near 6 C and highs 14 to 16 C.
WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy and a bit warmer, lows near 6 C and highs 16 to 18 C.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY look rather cloudy with the chance of some light showers at times, lows near 7 C and highs around 17 C.
By next weekend (29-30 May) and into Monday 31st, fairly settled and just a touch warmer again with highs possibly close to 20 C well inland, 16 to 18 C near coasts.
Unfortunately there are signs that it will turn more unsettled again in early June but temperatures are currently looking moderate (15 to 18 C on average) which is a bit below June averages but not by a large amount.
They have yet to name the developing tropical storm now close to Bermuda but may do so at any moment as it looks to have reached that status; another candidate being watched in the Gulf of Mexico is running out of time to acquire tropical characteristics but is spreading heavy rainfalls into southeast Texas anyway. My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy and just a bit warmer than the past few days with a high near 16 C.0 -
Sunday, 23 May, 2021
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 23 to 29 May, 2021
-- Temperatures will average about 1 to 2 deg below normal but the trend will be rising and will reach near normal by end of the week.
-- Rainfalls will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal, much of that expected today so the trend after today will be towards drier conditions with some showers on a few days (Monday, Friday looking most likely).
-- Sunshine will average near normal amounts with an improving trend.
-- Winds generally in the light to moderate range, after some blustery conditions at first today.
FORECASTS
TODAY will start out quite blustery with squally showers likely this morning, 5 to 10 mm rainfalls within an hour or two as the front passes, then partly cloudy with scattered showers redeveloping this afternoon, some isolated thunderstorms with hail. Winds veering to westerly 40 to 60 km/hr but some higher gusts with the front now into the midlands and expected in Leinster by 0930-1030h. Highs around 14 C.
TONIGHT will become partly cloudy with a few showers, lows near 7 C.
MONDAY will bring intervals of cloud and sun, and passing showers, probably more frequent in east Ulster and north Leinster where it may rain rather heavily around mid-day and in the afternoon. Highs 13 to 15 C.
TUESDAY will become partly cloudy with isolated showers, and by afternoon will become a bit warmer with lows near 6 C and highs 14 to 17 C.
WEDNESDAY will have partly cloudy to sunny skies, lows near 7 C and highs near 17 C.
THURSDAY will be sunny at first, then increasing cloud, leading to some showers by the overnight hours, lows near 7 C and highs near 18 C.
FRIDAY will start out rather cloudy with showers, then will become partly cloudy, lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.
The outlook for the end of the month (Sat 29th to Mon 31st) is for a briefly warmer spell with highs closer to 20 C, rather breezy at times, then back to more unsettled and somewhat cooler temperatures by early June.
They named that first storm (Ana) and it's rather weak and now drifting away from Bermuda, should die out within two days or so. My local weather was partly cloudy most of the day and it warmed up to near 20 C, then we had some virga showers that turned to actual rain for a few minutes around sunset, with rainbows appearing against dark clouds and rain or hail streaks off to the east in the evening.0 -
Monday, 24 May, 2021
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 24 to 30 May, 2021
-- Temperatures will average near normal values with a rising trend, balancing a start at around 3 deg below normal with a finish where several days are a little above average.
-- Rainfall will vary from 25% or less in Ulster, to 75% of normal in parts of Munster.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values.
-- Wind speeds will be generally moderate at times but mostly light.
FORECASTS
TODAY will bring a mixture of cloud and sunshine, probably longer bright spells further north as there will be more widespread showers and a few thunderstorms across Munster and south Leinster. Rainfalls of 5-10 mm will be typical there, but trace to 5 mm further north. Rather cool, highs only 12 to 15 C.
TONIGHT will become partly cloudy in most areas, with light rain at times across the south, lows near 7 C south to around 3-5 C in Ulster.
TUESDAY will be rather cloudy with some areas of rain lingering to at least mid-day in Munster and south Leinster, but a clearing trend will develop by late afternoon and evening there, with longer sunny intervals all day further north. Highs 12 to 16 C.
WEDNESDAY will be generally dry with partly cloudy skies, isolated showers most likely in the southwest, with lows of 4 to 7 C and highs of 13 to 17 C.
THURSDAY will start out partly cloudy and pleasant in the east and north, overcast in the south and west where outbreaks of light rain will begin during the morning hours and become somewhat heavier by afternoon and evening. This rain may reach the east and north by late afternoon or evening. Lows 4 to 7 C and highs 15 to 18 C.
FRIDAY will see gradual clearing from the west, lows near 10 C and highs 17 to 20 C.
SATURDAY to MONDAY (29th to 31st) will be reasonably warm with Monday looking like it may exceed 21 C, after two days around 19 C or so. This will be a partly cloudy interval with some generous sunny intervals, and only small chances for showers.
Into early June, a warm, humid southeast flow will develop and spread rain into Ireland at times from that direction, and highs will be in the 17 to 21 C range. This may lead to outbreaks of heavy and thundery rain within a few days.
My local weather on Sunday was overcast with a high near 15 C. It wasn't warm enough to be warm and it wasn't cold enough to be cold.0 -
Tuesday, 25 May, 2021
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 25 to 31 May 2021 --
-- Temperatures will average near normal values, with a warming trend later in the period.
-- Rainfall will average 50 per cent of normal in the south, to 25 per cent or less in Ulster.
-- Sunshine will average 50-75 per cent of normal in the south, to at least 100% of normal further north.
-- Winds will remain generally rather light.
FORECASTS
TODAY will continue cloudy in the south and parts of the west with a steady light to moderate rain, 10-15 mm possible in some areas, highs 11 to 13 C. Further north partly cloudy or even sunny in east Ulster, highs 13 to 16 C.
TONIGHT will continue cloudy in the south with occasional light rain or drizzle, lows near 7 C; partly cloudy to clear further north, lows 1 to 4 C.
WEDNESDAY will become partly cloudy in most areas, some further showers possible in parts of Munster, highs in the 14 to 17 C range.
THURSDAY will be cloudy except in parts of the north and east where partly cloudy at first, with outbreaks of light rain spreading slowly inland from the south and west coasts. Lows 4 to 7 C and highs 15 to 18 C.
FRIDAY will see some sunshine by afternoon after morning rainfall ends (5 mm on average from late Thursday to early Friday) with lows 8 to 10 C and highs 16 to 19 C.
From SATURDAY to MONDAY and possibly as far into the week as TUESDAY, hazy sunshine at times and warmer with highs 18 to 21 C. Eventually this will break down with rain from the southeast or south and that could become heavy and thundery later in the week.
My local weather on Monday was overcast with a few brighter moments and highs near 16 C.0 -
Wednesday, 26 May, 2021
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 26 May to 1 June --
-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values with a warming trend.
-- Rainfalls will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will average near normal although possibly a bit below average in the south.
-- Winds will remain generally rather light with nights often calm.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be partly cloudy and slightly warmer than recent days in most areas, highs 14 to 17 C. There will be some lingering light rain or drizzle in parts of west Munster but this is showing signs of dissipating later this morning too, temperatures will be a bit cooler until the cloud does break up there (12 to 14 C).
TONIGHT will bring some clear skies in the east and north, partly cloudy to overcast in the south and west. Lows will therefore range from about 2-5 C in the north and east, to 7-10 C in the south and west.
THURSDAY will start out with some sunny intervals in the east and north, mostly cloudy in the south and west. A band of light rain will develop and cross parts of the southwest and midlands, leading to a drop in temperatures during the rain, but otherwise highs will reach about 17 C (it may drop off to near 10 C when raining).
FRIDAY this weak disturbance will begin to break up over the east with a few residual showers, followed by partly cloudy to sunny skies, lows near 8 C and highs near 18 C.
From SATURDAY to around TUESDAY 1st of June, the weather will turn warmer with some hazy sunshine each day, and just slight chances of rain mostly from weak fronts near Atlantic coasts later in the period. Highs will be at least 20 or 21 C and could be a few degrees higher inland if there's enough sunshine. Nights will be fairly mild with lows generally around 7 to 9 C although a few inland spots could get briefly down around 2-5 C although with nights as short as they are now, very few will be out and about when those temperatures happen anyway (around 0400-0500 hours).
Some recent guidance seems to be more optimistic about how long this warm spell might last although with such a prolonged cool spell coming to an end it probably wouldn't take much to tilt the balance back to cooler temperatures at some point next week, hopefully this warmth will dig in and take over for a while, as I'm sure the growing season has been held back slightly by all the cool temperatures in April and May.
My local weather was mostly cloudy again with showers on the local radar just to our west but they stayed in place over higher terrain and skies were threatening but remained dry locally. Highs reached about 18 C. There's a full moon tonight here and as it sets around 0400h local time (1100h GMT or 1200 IST) there will be a total eclipse of the moon visible if it doesn't cloud over again. Will have some chance to see at least the first half of this event before the moon sets behind the mountains here. Eastern Asia and Australia will get the best views. If you see the moon tonight in Ireland it will still appear full but no eclipse will occur.0 -
Thursday, 27 May, 2021
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 27 May to 2 June 2021 --
-- Temperatures will average about 1 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will average 75 to 100 per cent of normal.
-- Winds generally light, occasionally rising to moderate values around Monday-Tuesday.
FORECASTS
TODAY will start out with some sunny intervals in the east and north, with cloud spreading in from the west by mid-day. Rain will reach some parts of west Munster in the next few hours and will advance slowly across the midlands. Temperatures in the dry areas of the east and north will peak around 15 to 17 C then drop off if any rain arrives. In the midlands, after a slight rise in temperatures this morning, it will become quite cool in the rain for several hours falling back to around 8-10 C. Further west, as the rain ends, a slightly warmer air mass will push in and temperatures there will rise slowly to about 15 C. Around 5 to 10 mm of rain is expected in most areas, but not until this evening in some parts of Ulster and north Leinster.
TONIGHT the rain will gradually move further east and north, but will begin to fragment to showers as the front weakens, some fog may develop, and lows will be generally around 6-8 C.
FRIDAY some lingering showers may continue for the morning to mid-day hours in parts of the east and north, with partly cloudy to overcast skies further west, but temperatures will gradually warm up in most places to reach highs of about 18 C.
SATURDAY will be partly cloudy with some intervals of hazy sunshine, some overcast periods too, and temperatures near 19 C after morning lows of 8-10 C.
SUNDAY will also be partly cloudy to overcast, fairly warm with highs 18-21 C. There could be some outbreaks of light rain or drizzle near northwest coasts by afternoon or evening.
MONDAY will be relatively warm with partly cloudy skies, isolated showers, and highs 19-22 C.
By TUESDAY (1st of June) a frontal system may begin to push into the warmer air and as winds turn more southeasterly, this could produce a situation where warmest temperatures are in parts of west Ulster and north Connacht, while east coast sees some marine influence and the southwest is in a frontal zone with showers and isolated thunderstorms. This pattern would then move further north and bring the showers and thunderstorms into parts of Ulster and Leinster overnight into Wednesday 2nd with further showers following from the southwest into Munster.
That pattern looks rather weakly defined and could just fizzle out to more partly cloudy skies and near average temperatures for a few days later in the week and into the following weekend.
My local weather on Wednesday was partly cloudy with rather brisk southerly winds at times, and while it looked threatening showers once again avoided our area and we remained dry with a high of about 19 C.0 -
Friday, 28 May, 2021
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 28 May to 3 June 2021 --
-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal, probably evenly distributed after some different trends cancel each other out (relatively cool in east at first but relatively warm there later).
-- Rainfall will average perhaps 25 to 50 per cent of normal in some parts but more likely in eastern counties with today's rain part of that total, a few places might stay relatively dry further west as rainfall late in the weekly interval is uncertain at least as to timing (think it is likely to happen but which side of 3 June being the question).
-- Sunshine will average at least near normal and some places will do as well as 25 per cent above normal.
-- Light wind speeds will prevail most of the time.
FORECASTS
TODAY will stay cloudy most of the day in Leinster with further rainfalls of 5-10 mm likely, most of that before mid-day with more patchy drizzle expected later on in a slow clearing trend. Some rain may spread into east Ulster at times also. Further west it should be a partly cloudy start and a sunny mid-day and afternoon. This will produce temperatures as low as 13-15 C in Leinster and as high as 18-20 C further west.
TONIGHT will become partly cloudy but misty or perhaps foggy in places in Leinster and east Ulster, lows near 7 C. Where it stays dry today, skies should be partly cloudy to clear tonight with lows 5 to 8 C.
SATURDAY to MONDAY there seems little point in issuing three forecasts since the entire period looks similar in most places, partly cloudy to sunny and relatively warm (especially by recent standards, this will be the first actual warm spell since late March). Highs each day should reach about 20 to 23 C away from any cooling influences of the nearby cooler ocean / sea temperatures which are generally around 12-14 C now. Some rather weak sea breezes could develop around coasts each day. Nights will also be dry and partly cloudy to clear, with lows in the 6 to 10 C range for most, although can't rule out colder readings in the usual cool spots well inland.
By the TUESDAY to WEDNESDAY time frame, that frontal system I discussed yesterday is still making a gradual move north from the Atlantic west of Spain towards western Biscay regions and eventually the south coast of Ireland. Timing on this seems a bit erratic on various model runs and in general it seems to be slowing down to arrive more like late Tuesday into Wednesday now. But eventually it will do two things, first of all, winds will turn more southeasterly which will make some parts of west Ulster and north Connacht the warmer part of the country around mid-week, and also, bands of showers and isolated thunderstorms are likely to push in from the south and end what appears to be a four-day dry spell (after today's eastern rain ends). These may be quite hit or miss as the system does not look overly strong.
Once that lethargic system finishes its drift north through Ireland late in the week, another brief dry spell would follow but then the regime looks increasingly unsettled with reasonably warm temperatures but fairly frequent rain from passing fronts, on a 2-3 day cycle. This, it should be said, is not "carved in stone" and some different evolution would not be entirely unexpected. It does seem that we're just about done with the below normal temperatures for a while anyway.
My local weather (probably well timed as we head from outdoor dining only to somewhat restricted back to almost normal in that regard) was cloudy, windy and at times rather stormy with a fairly decent thunderstorm around 4 p.m. and forked lightning hitting a nearby peak a few times, distant thunder, and briefly heavy rain and strong wind gusts, temperatures rather sultry near 20 C until that hit, but we're up so high here that we get quite impressive cold downdrafts in storms (probably briefly near 12 C). All that has moved on towards the Rockies and another front is heading in from the coast for perhaps a brief encore late tonight, to be followed by a warmer dry spell here as well. I noticed some tornado warnings for eastern OK earlier today, checked the actual reports and luckily it seemed to remain just sub-tornadic for the most part moving through Tulsa and into Arkansas, moderate tree damage and a low human casualty impact which is good. However this system is likely to regenerate further east today.0 -
Saturday, 29 May, 2021
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 29 May to 4 June 2021 --
-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average near normal, but it will be quite dry until mid-week when this rain arrives (most likely Wed 2nd from current indications).
-- Sunshine will also average about normal, with generous amounts on some days, rather cloudy on others.
-- Light winds almost throughout the interval.
FORECASTS
TODAY is likely to start out rather overcast as a weak warm front is slowly pushing across the country from west to east. A few drops of rain may fall here and there from this, but trace amounts will be the most likely outcome from that, and later on the cloud will probably begin to break up gradually, perhaps with some interesting upper level cloud formations visible. Highs will reach about 18 C for most, perhaps 20 C in any inland locations that get a more prolonged sunny interval.
TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to clear with lows 7 to 9 C.
SUNDAY will have a mixture of cloud and sunshine, some of that warm frontal cloud will probably linger in the east and there could be some fog banks near some coasts where temperatures will probably be a few degrees cooler than most places; highs generally 18 to 21 C.
MONDAY will see little change with intervals of cloud and sun, reasonably warm, lows 7 to 9 C and highs 20 to 22 C.
TUESDAY will be even slightly warmer especially in parts of the midlands, Connacht and Ulster, as light winds turn more to the southeast, which may hold highs down in parts of Leinster and coastal Munster (near 17 C) while other locations get into the 21 to 24 C range.
WEDNESDAY is the current timing for a rather active frontal system that is expected to make slow but steady progress north and end the warm, dry spell progressively, with 10-20 mm rainfalls likely, 20-30 mm possible in a few spots as thunderstorm cells may form in this band of showery rainfall. Temperatures will probably be held to around 18 C in most places unless there are some well-timed sunny breaks.
By THURSDAY there will be partial clearing of the cloud and the last of the showers moving north from Ulster, with highs around 19 C.
FRIDAY and SATURDAY are not looking too bad on current guidance but another system is scheduled to make a run at Britain from a point of origin a little further east; if anything were to change about that scenario, showers might need to be added to this time period forecast but for now it looks fairly dry and partly cloudy with highs near 20 C.
Beyond that, a series of quite weak disturbances will drift through from the southwest in a regime that is not far from average in terms of temperatures, so most days should be partly cloudy to overcast at times with a bit of rain from time to time, probably not very much in total for a while at least, with some indications of more unsettled weather to follow around mid-June.
My local weather is gradually improving too with a few sunny breaks in a mostly cloudy day on Friday, rather cool with highs only about 15 C but likely to warm steadily for several days under mostly sunny skies. A low pressure system on the east coast interacting with cool high pressure over northern Ontario led to a rain-snow mix on higher ground in southern Ontario and even in Toronto they saw a bit of wet snow falling for a short time, 1-3 cms stuck on the ground in higher parts of the region south of Georgian Bay. This is quite unusual; in the past century I can only find one report of snow accumulating this late in the season in that region (in May 1961) although there were traces of snow into the first few days of June a few times. With that low moving off to the northeast it is now going to turn frosty in some spots in rural parts of Ontario and upstate New York.0 -
Sunday, 30 May, 2021
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 30 May to 5 June 2021 --
-- Temperatures will average about 2 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will vary from about 75 per cent of normal in the south and west, to 25 per cent in the north and east.
-- Sunshine will work out near or slightly above normal values.
-- Winds will continue to be light south to southeast much of the time.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be mostly sunny and warm in most places. Some cloud may drift around near coastal areas, sometimes producing a slight mist or sea fog effect, but it may be transient rather than "socked in all day." Highs 20 to 23 C but a few degrees cooler close to the sea.
TONIGHT will be clear with increasing high cloudiness in parts of the west. Lows 6 to 9 C.
MONDAY will be rather cloudy in the west and there could be occasional drizzle near the Mayo and west Donegal coasts. Other areas will have at least partly sunny conditions with the sun sometimes dimmed by variable amounts of higher cloud. Little change expected in temperatures, near 22 C inland, 17 C on some coasts.
TUESDAY will bring only slight changes with partly cloudy to overcast skies, outbreaks of light rain near Atlantic coasts but little accumulation there, and highs 18 to 22 C.
WEDNESDAY could turn quite unsettled, as a frontal system pushes up from the Biscay region, with potential for thunderstorms mixed in with a general band of rain showers lasting several hours as it moves gradually northward through most regions. Heavier rain is likely to hit the south central and inland western counties (15-30 mm there) with smaller amounts expected in Leinster and Ulster. Temperatures around 18 C but one or two places could reach 20 C with enough breaks in the overcast. Winds will temporarily pick up a little to southeast 30-50 km/hr.
THURSDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with isolated showers, still rather muggy and warm with highs about 19 or 20 C.
The outlook is for fairly bland weather conditions to continue with temperatures not far from 20 C most days, no return to any widespread cool weather is foreseen for a while at least. My forecast for June is for slightly warmer than average temperatures, near normal rainfall and sunshine, with perhaps a trend towards more unsettled conditions in the second half of the month.
My local weather was sunny with a few passing clouds, still a bit cool for late May although the sun felt warm out of the breeze, and highs reached about 17 C. We are heading into a much warmer spell lasting most of the week with predictions of 27-30 C highs.0 -
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Monday, 31 May, 2021
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 31 May to 6 June 2021 --
-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average as much as 150 per cent of normal in parts of west Munster, near normal from south Connacht through the midlands into east Munster, and 50 per cent in north Leinster and most of Ulster.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values; rather cloudy after Tuesday but enough bright spells to keep the totals from falling below normal thanks to a good start in this element.
-- Winds will generally be rather light, except for brief intervals of moderate southerly winds around tonight and Thursday on the west coast.
FORECASTS
TODAY will continue sunny and warm in many areas, but cloud will dominate in the west where there could be some occasional light rain near the Mayo and later west Donegal coasts. At times it will become rather breezy (south to southwest 40-60 km/hr) on Atlantic coasts but winds will be considerably lighter in most other regions. Highs will be 20 to 23 C for most, possibly holding near 16 C on cloudier west and south coasts.
TONIGHT will see rain edging slowly further east but not making much progress past Galway to Shannon to west Cork, partly cloudy and mild further east, lows 10 to 12 C.
TUESDAY will still have some sunny intervals and warm temperatures in most central and eastern counties, as the cloud and occasional rain from a stalled front make only limited further progress eastward into some parts of central Connacht and west Munster. Highs 19 to 23 C.
WEDNESDAY will feature some rain and embedded thundershowers moving in from the south, probably with rather limited impacts for many areas until later in the day when some of the rain could become heavy or even torrential in parts of west Munster; much lesser amounts are expected in Leinster and Ulster, totals will vary from 5-10 mm there to 30-50 mm in some parts of Kerry, Limerick and Cork, into south Clare overnight. Rather warm and humid with lows near 14 C and highs near 19 C.
THURSDAY some of the heavy to torrential rain could continue for part of the morning hours in west Munster before most of it either dissipates to light showers, or moves northwest into the Atlantic. Otherwise this frontal system will likely be losing much of its organization and leaving behind partly cloudy skies, isolated showers and fairly warm temperatures in the same range as the previous day (lows near 14 C, highs 19 to 21 C). Eventually some parts of this system may make a return visit to land further north bringing some moderate showers to Connacht and Ulster by late in the day.
FRIDAY and SATURDAY will probably be partly cloudy and rather warm days with isolated showers; however, another locally heavy rainfall event will be moving north out of France towards southwest England, Wales and the Irish Sea -- any change in its predicted track could bring heavy rains to Leinster but this is not indicated yet in any guidance available. If it stays away, the two days should be relatively settled and highs will be 18 to 21 C.
The pattern beyond that is rather disorganized with weak disturbances eddying around over the region with little change in the temperature regime. So it should stay relatively warm for the second week of June with perhaps near average amounts of rain. Later into the month it could become more unsettled.
My local weather on Sunday was very pleasant, sunny with highs near 24 C. There was a lot of higher cloud around from weak warm fronts moving north, as the desert southwest begins to sizzle under a big upper level ridge, but there was no organized shower or thunderstorm activity except over a few high peaks well to the south of here. We are looking forward to several days of very warm weather, good for planting gardens so I'm being advised.0 -
Tuesday, 1st of June, 2021
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 1 to 7 June, 2021
-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal.
-- Rainfall will average near normal in parts of Connacht, the midlands and south central counties, 25 per cent above normal in west Munster, and as much as 50 per cent below normal in Ulster.
-- Sunshine will average about 75 per cent of normal values, to near normal.
-- Light winds will continue except for a few intervals of moderate southeast winds late Wednesday, becoming moderate southerly Thursday.
FORECASTS
TODAY will bring some further outbreaks of rain (5-10 mm) in parts of Connacht, spreading at times into west Ulster and west Munster but these will tend to fragment to showers later. Partly to mostly cloudy elsewhere but continued warm and dry, highs 17 to 20 C for most, near 22 C locally in the inland southeast.
TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast and quite mild with a few light showers in the south and west, lows around 10 to 13 C.
WEDNESDAY will bring outbreaks of heavier rain moving in from the south, the south central counties northwest to Connacht will see 10-15 mm, with lesser amounts likely in most of Leinster and Ulster, in fact remaining dry in a few parts of east Ulster until late in the day. Some thunderstorms may be embedded in this band of rain, and highs will be around 19 C.
THURSDAY some further outbreaks of rain in the west and north mainly, with variable cloud and southerly winds at 30 to 50 km/hr elsewhere, lows near 12 C and highs 16 to 19 C.
FRIDAY and SATURDAY will bring another outbreak of showery rainfalls as a rather weak frontal system moves gradually northeast across the country, 2-5 mm rainfalls and highs both days near 19 C.
The further outlook calls for a few more showery episodes from time to time in a southwesterly flow that will be rather cloudy overall, but with some sunshine at times, and near normal temperatures for the period (highs 19-21 C) with rather mild overnight readings.
My local weather on Monday was sunny and hot, with highs reaching 32 C in the nearby valley, and 28 C at my location (we were into the hotter temperatures for a while) and there was some cloud build ups but no rain with them by evening.0 -
Wednesday, 2 June, 2021
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS remain similar to yesterday, rather warm, near average rainfalls at most, and coming mostly today, after which rather dry again. Normal amounts of sunshine eventually.
FORECASTS
TODAY will bring some heavy showers and localized thunderstorms, moving into the south this morning, and covering most other regions at some point later on, although coverage may be rather hit or miss in Leinster and Ulster. Local rainfalls of 20-30 mm are possible especially if some thunderstorm cells move along a similar track, but other places may only see 5-10 mm. There will be a few brighter intervals, during the morning in the east and north, and after the rain moves through in the south. Highs around 18 to 20 C. Winds southeast 30-50 km/hr at times, veering to southerly over the west Munster coast.
TONIGHT will see most of this rainfall activity moving out into the Atlantic west of Connacht and Munster, but some could linger on parts of the Kerry coastline and south Clare. Other localized showers will continue in parts of Connacht and Ulster. Partly cloudy skies will return elsewhere, quite mild with lows 9 to 12 C.
THURSDAY will be partly cloudy in most areas, overcast with showers near the Atlantic coast and in parts of west Ulster. Moderate south to southwest winds 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs 18 to 20 C.
FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with showers or isolated thunderstorms moving slowly into western counties, rainfalls of 3 to 7 mm expected, once again rather hit or miss, and fairly warm again with lows near 10 C and highs 18 to 21 C.
SATURDAY will find the remnants of these showers making further progress northeastward but becoming more isolated as they go, so that many places could remain dry or almost dry with partly cloudy skies, lows near 8 C and highs 17 to 20 C.
SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny with highs near 20 C.
Most of next week will continue rather bland with partly cloudy skies the general rule, occasional brief showers from weak frontal systems, and highs mostly around 20 C. There are hints that the wind will turn more easterly in the mid-month period with heavier rainfall potential off to the south at times, which means that with slight changes in model output we could be adding that to the forecasts but right now the outlook is fairly dry for most parts of Ireland and Britain, other than perhaps the southern inland counties of England where it could get a bit more unsettled. My feeling is that eventually this month will break down into some sort of heavy rainfall situation as the influence of high pressure is never all that strong, the dry outlook coming more from an absence of weather systems than strong high pressure.
My local weather stayed sunny and hot on Tuesday with highs close to 34 C. It has been a lovely clear and mild evening for stargazing (although there's little by way of planets on offer, just a rather faint Mars off to the west near Castor and Pollux, the twins of Gemini. The three other bright planets are rising after midnight these days and can be seen before sunrise. A few nights ago, I saw those odd space-X lights from the array of satellites they send up, it looks like some sort of UFO formation with about two dozen lights in formation. If you happen to see this some night moving rapidly from west to east, don't panic, it's just Elon Musk up to some new tricks.0 -
Thursday, 3 June, 2021
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 3 to 9 June 2021
-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values.
-- Winds rather light except sometimes moderate south to southwest near Atlantic coasts.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast in most areas, with only a slight chance of brief showers, highs 18 to 20 C. There will be a higher chance of showers in Atlantic coastal districts and by afternoon also in parts of Ulster.
TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with lows 8 to 10 C.
FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with occasional showers in western counties, highs 17 to 20 C.
SATURDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers or thunderstorms, lows near 8 C and highs 18 to 21 C.
SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny at times, after some dense morning fog patches, lows near 7 C and highs inland 20 to 23 C, coastal areas remaining cooler (15 to 18 C).
OUTLOOK for next week calls for gradually rising temperatures towards quite warm values in the mid 20s at times by later in the week, with only slight chances for rain as weak frontal remnants pass by.
My local weather stayed sunny and hot with the high reaching a scorching 37 C in the valley, 33 C at my location. We are due to have one more hot day then a gradual return to more normal June temperatures and scattered showers by the weekend here.0 -
Friday, 4 June, 2021
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS remain similar, a slightly warm regime with only limited rainfall and near average sunshine, not very windy.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be cloudy with a few breaks, and there may be a few showers mainly in western counties and parts of Ulster, 2-5 mm rainfalls possible there. Highs 16 to 19 C.
TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast, a few more light showers, lows 8 to 12 C.
SATURDAY will be partly cloudy with scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms. A rather hit or miss pattern where some places will get 5-10 mm rainfalls, others trace amounts or zero. Highs 17 to 20 C.
SUNDAY will become partly sunny to mostly sunny, once any dense fog patches dissipate. Very slight wind gradient favours sea breeze development on all coasts. Lows 6 to 10 C, highs 17 to 23 C, warmest inland.
MONDAY will be sunny with a few cloudy intervals, more sea breezes likely on all coasts, lows 6 to 10 C and highs once again 17 to 23 C.
From Tuesday to about Saturday 12th, it should be quite a pleasant early summer weather regime with plenty of sunshine at times, and temperatures likely to warm slowly into the mid 20s inland, near 19 C on some coasts.
A more active weather pattern is signalled to set in around Sunday 13th with a cold front ending the warm spell with showers and thunderstorms, stronger westerly winds developing, and then more unsettled weather conditions likely for the rest of the middle week of June.
My local weather continued sunny and hot with another high near 35 C. It is starting to cool down overnight and we expect to be into a more comfortable 21-24 C air mass by the weekend.0 -
Saturday, 5 June, 2021
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 5 to 11 June 2021 --
-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values, warmest late in the week.
-- Rainfall will average only 10 to 25 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will average near normal, for a dry pattern it is also somewhat cloudier and some coastal areas may not reach the normal amounts of sunshine due to low cloud from sea fog or marine layers.
-- Winds will be generally light but occasionally moderate southwest.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be cloudy with some sunny intervals, rather muggy, with a few light showers but chance of a heavier shower or thunderstorm developing in one or two spots, most likely inland north and east Ulster. Many places will remain almost dry with just a few spots of drizzle perhaps. Highs 16 to 19 C.
TONIGHT will become partly cloudy and could see clear intervals but then fog or low cloud following, lows 6 to 10 C.
SUNDAY will have some sunshine at times once the low cloud, mist and fog clear away. There could be a few isolated showers later on in the west and north. Highs 17 to 20 C.
MONDAY will bring variable amounts of cloud and a slight chance of showers, again most places likely to have a dry day but one or two heavier showers possible locally. Lows near 8 C and highs near 20 C.
TUESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast and some outbreaks of rain seem likely from a weak frontal trough, amounts generally only 1-4 mm, lows near 12 C and highs near 20 C.
From WEDNESDAY to about SATURDAY 12th, a more settled and quite warm interval will follow, with highs creeping up into the 22-25 C range at times.
This will likely be followed by a somewhat more unsettled period, with more frequent frontal passages bringing some rain although still not more than average for mid-June. Temperatures mid-month will settle back into a more normal range.
My local weather on Friday saw a gradual end to the hot spell, it was still quite warm with bright sunshine to mid-afternoon and highs near 27 C, then fully overcast later, more comfortable with evening temperatures near 20 C. A fairly active cold front is heading in for the late overnight which means we might get woken up by thunder at some point around sunrise (backing up my files just in case).0 -
Sunday, 6 June, 2021
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 6 to 12 June, 2021 --
-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 25 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will be close to average, some coastal areas may remain rather cloudy.
-- Winds generally light to moderate southwesterly.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be sunny with afternoon cloudy intervals, although some parts of the southeast will start out rather cloudy and have mid-day sunshine. Rather warm and humid, highs 17 to 20 C.
TONIGHT will be hazy with fog patches developing, lows 10 to 13 C.
MONDAY will be cloudy with sunny breaks, warm and humid, some spotty drizzle near Atlantic coasts. Highs will reach 18 to 21 C.
TUESDAY will be cloudy with occasional light rain in some western counties, holding dry in most of the east with a few brighter intervals, lows 11 to 14 C and highs 17 to 21 C.
WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will be similar but with slightly more sunshine possible each day in a warm, humid and rather cloudy southwesterly flow, lows near 12 C and highs 18 to 22 C.
FRIDAY to SUNDAY look even warmer with lows 12 to 15 C and highs 19 to 24 C. The warmer temperatures will be found in central and eastern counties.
Around MONDAY to TUESDAY (14th-15th) a change in the pattern appears likely, with this warm flow being replaced with a more seasonable or even slightly cooler than average westerly with weak frontal systems at first, becoming stronger as we get further into the month. Highs will drop back to the 17-20 C range and there will probably be more normal amounts of rain as well.
My local weather on Saturday was mostly cloudy with passing showers and brief thunderstorms, about 10 mm of rain fell in total from three outbreaks, and temperatures got a bit cooler each time, ending up around 10 C by the evening hours. Our heat wave has moved on to the plains states where it has been around 40 deg C the past two days in both North Dakota and Manitoba. Some heavy to severe thunderstorms formed along cold fronts further west in Montana and Wyoming.0 -
Monday, 7 June, 2021
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS remain the same, temps 2-3 deg above normal, little if any rainfall, rather cloudy but perhaps enough sunshine to approach the June normals (5-6 hours a day), and moderate southwest winds much of the time.
FORECASTS
TODAY will feature some sunny intervals and rather warm highs of 19 to 22 C. It may start out rather cloudy especially near south and west coasts, and some places could have persistent low cloud from the onshore "marine" flow, but further inland and near the east coast it should be at least bright with variable cloud, if not sunny. Winds southwest 30-50 km/hr.
TONIGHT will become more cloudy in general with outbreaks of light rain, drizzle, and formations of mist or fog, quite muggy with lows 12 to 15 C.
TUESDAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, drizzle or light rain at times, only 1-3 mm likely from this however, and muggy with highs 18-22 C.
WEDNESDAY will bring somewhat longer bright intervals and sunny spells, with less mist or drizzle in the same humid southwesterly flow, lows 12 to 15 C, highs 19-23 C.
THURSDAY to about SUNDAY will probably be a touch warmer still with some sunshine likely each day, fairly long sunny intervals possible in the east at times, and quite humid too, lows 13 to 16 C and highs 20 to 25 C. Winds will be generally a bit stronger south to southwesterly 40 to 60 km/hr.
By late Sunday or early MONDAY (14th) a strong cold front will arrive, winds will turn more northerly behind this, as low pressure dives southeast into the Biscay and Iberian regions, causing this front to drag to a halt over Britain by late Monday 14th, which may keep Ireland under cloud and a light rain at times (heavier rain likely where the front eventually stalls from France into Britain). This set-up will persist for a few days then will be followed by more unsettled conditions and there are some signs of quite a cooler turn to the weather after the June summer solstice.
So would expect highs in the 15 to 19 C range in the week of 14-20 June and perhaps a touch lower than that towards the following week.
My local weather was cloudy, cool and showery at times with highs only 12-14 C, quite a contrast to the mid-30s we had here for three days last week.0 -
Tuesday, 8 June, 2021
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 8 to 14 June, 2021 --
-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg above normal. Nights will be particularly warm relative to average.
-- Rainfall may reach 25 per cent of normal in a few parts of the west but will generally be less than that.
-- Sunshine will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal values in the west and south coastal counties, closer to average further north and in the east.
-- Winds will generally be moderate south to southwest.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals near the east coast mainly. There will be a few outbreaks of drizzle or light rain in western and, later on, southern counties. Amounts will be slight, 1 to 3 mm expected. Some parts of the east and north will remain dry. Moderate south to southwest winds 30-50 km/hr. It will be rather warm and muggy with highs reaching 18 to 21 C but a more accurate word might be clammy near the cloudier coasts especially where mist or sea fog develop.
TONIGHT will remain rather close with lows around 13 to 15 C, low cloud or mist and some drizzle in places.
WEDNESDAY will be similar to today with cloudy skies in many areas, perhaps breaking at times to partly cloudy, and outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, in a rather muggy southwest flow. Highs 18 to 22 C.
THURSDAY to SUNDAY the pattern remains almost static but there will likely be somewhat longer bright spells or sunny intervals especially in the midlands, east and north. It will become a little warmer too with highs reaching the 19 to 24 C range. Nights will remain quite mild in the range of 12 to 16 C. Winds throughout southwesterly at about 40 to 60 km/hr, dropping off at night inland to near calm.
Around MONDAY of next week, we're still expecting a change in the weather pattern although it may take a day or two to consolidate, as cooler air works its way in from a source more to the west than southwest, so it will feel fresher and highs will likely fall back to around 17-20 C. There may be some showers at times with this cooler flow, and eventually it could involve some heavier rainfalls from more organized disturbances replacing these weak fronts that have very little energy this week. Some guidance is going for much cooler weather within the second week of this outlook.
My local weather remains cool and showery at times, with some clearing at times during the afternoon on Monday, and highs only in the 13-15 C range. We're expecting a slight warming trend but no return to the heat we had a few days ago. That heat wave melted a lot of alpine snow and brought river levels up in some areas, despite only small amounts of rainfall.0 -
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Wednesday, 9 June, 2021
Forecasts for Ireland
TRENDS for the week of 9 to 15 June, 2021 --
-- Temperatures will average 1 to 3 deg above normal, the higher values likely to be in Leinster and east Ulster, midlands and east Munster, also more of an anomaly for overnight lows which may be 3 to 5 above normal.
-- Rainfalls will average only 25 per cent of normal in parts of the west and southwest, also into Ulster, with even lower values likely for the east and southeast, some parts of the midlands.
-- Sunshine will vary from only 50 per cent of normal in the west and north, also near the south coast, to closer to normal totals in the east and parts of the midlands.
-- Winds will be generally moderate south to southwest, although in the lower end of the moderate range most of the time.
FORECASTS
TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals, rather warm and muggy, with a few more outbreaks of light rain more frequent across the south this morning and at times in the west and north by mid-day and afternoon. Amounts will be generally 2 to 5 mm in these areas, and trace to 2 mm in other regions. Highs 15 to 17 C in the cloudier west and south, northwest; 18 to 22 C in the midlands and east. Winds south to southwest 30-50 km/hr.
TONIGHT will be overcast with drizzle at times, rather warm and humid, lows 13 to 17 C.
THURSDAY will also be rather cloudy but with slightly longer bright spells or sunny intervals in the same parts of the country as today, with probably fewer outbreaks of light rain as well. Highs generally 19 to 23 C.
FRIDAY and SATURDAY will continue this slow clearing trend with the widespread cloud becoming a bit less uniform each day leading to some quite prolonged sunny breaks in the east and some sunny intervals in previously cloudy areas further west also. Temperatures will continue a slow rise with highs by Friday 20 to 24 C and by Saturday into the 21 to 25 C range. Nights will continue quite warm with lows 13 to 17 C. Winds will start to pick up slightly each day and may reach 40 to 70 km/hr in exposed coastal areas.
By SUNDAY there may be some showers back in the picture at least for parts of the north and west, but it will remain quite warm especially in the southeast with highs once again 21 to 25 C.
MONDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with fresher westerly winds and highs 15 to 20 C. Some showers may continue in the north and west.
By TUESDAY (15th) a larger change in the weather pattern will begin as cooler air arrives, and possibly rather gusty southwest to west winds, with more widespread showers advancing gradually further east. Highs around 18 C.
From next Wednesday (16th) on, the pattern may become quite a bit cooler with highs only 15 to 18 C and more frequent outbreaks of light rain, with winds sometimes rather gusty from the west to northwest.
My local weather on Tuesday was partly cloudy and a bit warmer than recent days with highs near 20 C.0
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