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Tuesday, 15 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 15 to 21 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values (which are highs of 14 and lows of 5).
-- Rainfall will average about 25% above normal but much of that could fall later today, tonight, and again on Thursday into Friday morning.
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be overcast with mist or fog in places, and drizzle in some central counties. Winds will gradually increase to southeast 40-60 km/hr by afternoon with stronger gusts near south coast. Rain will spread into west Munster and then Connacht around mid-day and will advance slowly eastward. Highs 12-14 C.

TONIGHT will be wet and windy with the rain gradually reaching the east coast, ending there after sunrise, with total amounts of 15-30 mm for most regions. Winds will ease somewhat during the night. Lows 6 to 8 C.

WEDNESDAY will become brighter with passing showers in a moderate, occasionally brisk westerly wind backing to southwest later. There will be some thunder and hail in a few spots and 3-5 mm additional rainfalls. Cool with highs only 11 to 13 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy to start, then overcast later with rain developing in strong southerly winds, 50 to 80 km/hr. Highs 11-14 C. About 10-20 mm rain likely (extending through the overnight to Friday morning).

FRIDAY will see the rain more confined to the east, and southwest gales near coasts will veer to westerly around mid-day. It will remain rather chilly with lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C. Winds becoming west to northwest 40 to 60 km/hr.

SATURDAY will be windy and rather cold with passing showers and some risk of hail accumulations especially on higher terrain. Lows 2-5 C and highs 8-11 C. Winds northwest 50 to 70 km/hr.

SUNDAY will bring some slow improvements with less cloud and shower activity, but it will remain chilly in a moderate northwest wind, lows about 1 to 4 C and highs 8 to 12 C.

MONDAY could be a bit more pleasant for a time with some sunny intervals and southwest winds bringing temperatures up slightly to 14 C.

The OUTLOOK calls for another frontal band of rain around Tuesday but after that there may be a slight change to more settled but chilly weather, as higher pressure builds in. The end of the month could turn considerably colder for a time.

My winter outlook is available, the summary would be rather wet and mild in the south, with increased chances for colder conditions and snow or ice at times further north due to a likely "battleground" scenario where Atlantic storms clash with higher pressure taking up frequent residence in Scandinavia this winter. I think this may mean a harsh winter in some parts of central Europe and perhaps even northern Britain, with Ulster and some other northern counties possibly on the colder side of the dividing line at times. But further south, the main theme may be stormy with wind and rain from Atlantic frontal systems. This is a preliminary outlook and I am going to issue a more detailed outlook in November once we can see how things are setting up for the early part of the winter.

My local weather on a holiday Monday here was sunny and pleasant with highs about 12-14 C.

Thursday, 17 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 17 to 23 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 degrees below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average near normal values (most of that will fall today and tomorrow though, so a wet start).
-- Sunshine will average about 25% above normal thanks to generous amounts from Sunday to Tuesday.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out reasonably bright in the east with a few sunny breaks, isolated showers and moderate southerly winds. Further west it will be more cloudy and bands of heavier showers, some with thunder, will gradually move further into the central counties. Some intervals of stronger gusty southwest winds may develop (50-80 km/hr) although it doesn't look like these winds will be a constant feature. Highs will reach about 14 C.

TONIGHT will bring further outbreaks of rain, with accumulations from today added in approaching 20-25 mm in places, but it will stay fairly mild at 7-8 C. The strong southwest wind gusts will become more confined to the southeast coastal regions as slack pressure gradients move into western regions with the centre of low pressure moving in.

FRIDAY will see that low pressure drifting further east, as it does so, rain will ease off to showers from west to east, and winds will gradually turn more westerly. About 5-10 mm further rainfall can be expected in occasional showers. Highs will be 12 to 14 C.

SATURDAY will become quite chilly with a brisk northerly wind of 50-70 km/hr, especially over the eastern coasts and any parts of Connacht and Ulster exposed to the Atlantic. Some inland counties may not feel as windy but even so, temperatures will be held down to around 10 or 11 C in most areas, with bands of squally showers likely to form in the flow off the Atlantic. Some streamers of hail showers may develop and make contact with the east coast at least south of Dublin as winds may become a bit more northeasterly at times. A few sunny intervals will be in the mix too, for west Munster in particular. Morning lows 3 to 5 C and afternoon highs 10 to 13 C.

SUNDAY will continue the same theme with a reduction in the wind speeds and therefore less shower development, although a few are still expected. Partly cloudy skies will prevail, and temperatures will continue cool, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

MONDAY could have some frosts to start, and it will be a bright and mainly dry day with just light northerly breezes backing to westerly over the northern and western counties by afternoon. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 9 to 13 C.

TUESDAY a weak front will be approaching the northwest coasts and it will become mostly cloudy in Connacht and Ulster while remaining partly cloudy to sunny at times in Munster and Leinster. A moderate southwest breeze will develop after a relatively calm start to the day with more frosts expected but mainly confined to the inland south. Lows -1 to +4 C and highs 10 to 14 C.

The OUTLOOK calls for a few days of mostly cloudy but milder weather in southwest breezes, highs around 15 C. Weather models have been struggling to resolve what might be happening past mid-week (23rd or 24th), the European model was showing some intense storm development by end of the week (in its earlier runs today) but I just saw that it has backed off that idea and is now more in line with other guidance showing another episode of rain followed by colder weather. That intense storm concept may come back into the forecast though, since changes at that time frame can go back and forth for a few consecutive model runs then fix on one solution.

My local weather on Wednesday remained overcast and rather mild with a few spots of light rain at times, probably no more than 1 mm and the freezing level here has moved back up to near mountain summit levels with temperatures at my elevation being around 15 C.

Saturday, 19 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 19 to 25 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will average about 0.5 deg below normal values but will be cooler than that in the first half of the interval, rising to somewhat above normal by about Wednesday.
-- Rainfall will average near normal values but a lot of that is based on a rather speculative outcome next Friday when a substantial rainfall could occur. Until then it should be relatively dry overall with localized heavy showers near east coast and in parts of the northwest.
-- Sunshine will average about 25% above normal which does not take much effort at this rather cloudy stage of the year when 2-3 hours a day is normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be rather chilly with brisk northerly winds setting in, probably before mid-day in most areas. There will be a patchwork of clear and cloudy sky conditions but bands of showers will form and those may be more persistent near the southeast coast and over north Connacht and down the west coast to Kerry. Northerly winds of 50 to 70 km/hr will be driving those showers inland or along parallel coasts. Further inland the wind may not be quite as blustery. Highs only 11 to 13 C.

TONIGHT will see a few remnant showers as the bands weaken, while any inland locations having clear skies for a while could see patchy ground frost developing, with lows generally about 1 to 4 C. Rather strong north to northeast winds will still be felt near the east coast and some other exposed coastal areas, but inland it should become much less breezy.

SUNDAY will also be quite breezy during the daytime with a mixture of cloud and sunshine, chilly north winds of 40 to 60 km/hr, and a few isolated shower bands that could produce hail in a few places. Highs only 9 to 12 C.

MONDAY will start out with a frost in some inland districts and ground fog or mist is likely, then the sun should clear that away and yield a fine day with light winds, but quite chilly in the shade. Lows will be -2 to +3 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

TUESDAY will still be clear enough in the south and east for localized frost and fog inland, but cloud further west and north will keep the overnight temperatures milder. The day will see increasing cloud in all areas. Lows -1 to +4 C and highs 11 to 15 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY are currently looking rather mild, generally dry in the south and east, with some light rain at times in the west and north, in moderate south to southwest winds. Lows will be 6 to 9 C and highs about 14 to 17 C.

There are some indications that the mid-week mild spell will break down on Friday with heavy rainfalls from the south. This is an evolving situation and it could change considerably. The general trend in guidance is for colder weather to set in after that event, although there are different ideas about from which direction the cold might approach, northwest to northeast being possible options.

Tropical Storm Nestor did actually form earlier on Friday and will make a landfall later today in Florida, thankfully not a huge event like last year's major hurricane Michael.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with glimpses of sun and passing light rain showers, with a rather mild high of 12 C (at this altitude, probably closer to 16 C in the valleys).

Monday, 21 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 21 to 27 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, starting from about 2 or 3 below average at first, and ending up that much above by Thursday, with further variations to come.
-- Rainfalls may amount to near normal after Friday's expected rainfalls. There could also be more by Sunday.
-- Sunshine will probably manage to outperform normal this week and could end up 50% above average in some places.


FORECASTS

TODAY will have some patchy frost and fog or mist especially in low-lying areas near lakes and rivers (which are now much warmer than the cold air), drive with caution in these areas. Most of coastal and urban sections of the country will be too mild for frost and eventually all areas will recover to about 10 degrees under a bright sky with some patchy higher cloud layers. The afternoon highs will reach 12 to 14 C. It won't be windy today and some places will remain almost calm.

TONIGHT will bring a return of some frost and fog patches mainly in the inland south and southeast. Cloud spreading into the north and west will keep temperatures higher there. Lows -1 to +4 C in south and east, to about 7 C in parts of the north and west.

TUESDAY will be mostly cloudy but there could be some brighter intervals at times. Rain will be slowly approaching the west coast and some patchy drizzle will probably reach land but it will be nightfall before measurable rain begins in the west and north. Moderate southwest winds of 40 to 60 km/hr will set in.

WEDNESDAY will have some intervals of light rain, 5 to 10 mm on average, in a milder southwest wind of 50 to 70 km/hr. Lows will be about 7 to 10 C and highs 11 to 15 C.

THURSDAY will continue mostly cloudy and mild, with a little more rain although spotty in most cases, and south winds will not be overly strong, with highs possibly as high as 16 C.

FRIDAY will bring outbreaks of rain and some could be heavy across the south. The timing and exact track of this system remain imprecise with estimates between Friday mid-day and Saturday early morning for the peak of the impacts. About 15-25 mm of rain is possible. Winds may become rather strong from the east ahead of the low, and then swing around to strong westerly winds once it moves through from southwest to northeast. The stronger east winds might be mostly from Dublin to Clare north into Ulster. Highs on Friday will be around 13 C.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY are likely to turn somewhat colder again at least for most of Saturday and the first part of Sunday; milder air could make a return at some point with a second rainfall event rather speculatively timed for Sunday into Monday. These details are going to remain unresolved for a day or two yet. But it looks as though temperatures on the weekend will be around 10-13 C, with the stronger winds of the Friday system easing by Saturday morning, then perhaps resuming from the southeast ahead of the second system timed at present for Sunday. The weather pattern beyond the weekend looks unsettled with frequent fast-moving frontal systems promising a seasonal amount of rain and occasionally strong winds.

My local weather was foggy with light rain most of the day, and that turned to wet snow at sunset, with about 5 cms of slushy snow on the ground now, but it seems to have turned back to drizzle as a weak warm front is moving in. Expecting a rain-snow mix here for the next day or two before any improvements take place. Canada has a federal election going on today (Monday) so you would think there would be a lot of hot air around, but none in evidence. The high here on Sunday was probably about 4 C. Meanwhile, the remnant low of Nestor has moved through Virginia with a soaking rainfall and is now headed towards Bermuda.

Wednesday, 23 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 23 to 29 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg below normal, colder in the north.
-- Rainfalls will average near normal or slightly above in the south, to 50% of normal in the north (and may include some wintry mixtures).
-- Sunshine will average near normal values despite a rather cloudy start.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be mild with rain spreading east across the country, about 10-15 mm potential with this band. The morning may remain largely dry in Leinster before the rain arrives there. Southerly winds of about 40-60 km/hr will veer to westerly when the rain ends. Highs 13-15 C.

TONIGHT will turn considerably colder with a few sleety showers in the northwest, otherwise generally dry. Winds westerly 40 to 60 km/hr will add some chill to temperatures dropping to the 1 to 3 C range.

THURSDAY will see cloudy skies with some brighter intervals, and isolated sleety showers mainly in Ulster and north Connacht. Winds will become northwest before dying out towards the end of the day. Highs only 7 to 9 C.

FRIDAY will bring a cold and in places heavy rainfall across the south, with sleet or snow possible on hills and towards the northern fringes of the rainfall at lower elevations in the central counties. There could be 20-40 mm of rain near the south coast where winds could also be rather strong from the east to northeast at 50 to 70 km/hr. Those winds will be a little more moderate further north but also from the northeast, as low pressure tracks past the south coast into Wales and England. Some accumulations of wet snow are possible on higher terrain in the south and east, and mixed falls further north. High temperatures only 4 to 6 C and feeling very cold and raw.

SATURDAY will bring a partial clearance but continued quite cold with wintry showers possible on north and west facing slopes as winds turn west to northwest 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C.

SUNDAY will probably remain dry but cold, however guidance begins to diverge into two outcomes for Monday, so that temperatures could be as low as 5-7 C or in the second scenario rising to around 10 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY the guidance available splits into two concepts, one is a continued feed of colder air from the northeast, largely dry if somewhat cloudy. The other possible outcome is for another low to push north and spread rain across Ireland later in the day and into Tuesday. So we'll have to wait and see which of these proves more accurate, as temperatures would likely be quite a bit milder with the rain scenario in southeast winds. The colder camp of model guidance then wants to bring a second mixed wintry storm towards the southeast mid-week (that is absent from the milder guidance). All then agree that it turns colder again later towards the first of November.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny with cloudy intervals and rather breezy, but with the sunshine warmer than previous days, and recent snow has retreated once again some distance up the local hills and out of the town for now. The strong winds and recent rain or snow have brought down a lot of leaves here in the past three days.

Friday, 25 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 25 to 31 October, 2019

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 degrees below normal, colder values in Ulster and the north midlands.
-- Rainfall will average 75 to 100 per cent of normal in the south, to only 25% or less in the north.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values but could be a bit above that in the north.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring some cold rain to the south, with the risk of sleet or snow on higher ground, mainly towards summit levels of higher hills. There could be 15-30 mm of rain in a few locations but 5-15 mm will be more widespread. The rain will cut off around county Galway across to Meath, with dry but mostly cloudy conditions further north aside from a few isolated showers. Winds will be moderate northeast 40 to 60 km/hr in the south, to about 30 km/hr further north, adding some chill to highs only reaching 8 C on the south coast and 4-6 C elsewhere.

TONIGHT will see further outbreaks of rain and the snow line may come down in elevation towards morning, with rain mixing with wet snow just as the event is ending. No significant accumulation is expected except on some hills. Skies will remain partly cloudy to clear at times further north. Lows -1 to +3 C with some scattered ground frosts in north central counties.

SATURDAY will be rather windy and cold with a north wind at first backing to northwest and increasing to 50-70 km/hr. Some wintry showers may be produced over the Atlantic coming inland over Ulster and north Connacht, but most places will turn dry once the morning sleety rain is finished. Highs will only reach 5 to 8 C.

SUNDAY will be somewhat less chilly with slacker northeast winds and a bit of sunshine through mixed high cloud layers, morning lows -2 to +3 C with some frosts in central and inland northern counties, highs 8 to 10 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy and dry with morning lows -2 to +3 C and afternoon highs 8 to 11 C. Light to moderate east winds are expected and could be rather brisk near the Irish Sea coasts.

TUESDAY will be cloudy with a chance of some light rain in Kerry and Cork, but remaining dry in the rest of the country, lows near 2 C and highs near 10 C.

WEDNESDAY the rain could hang around in west Munster for a while before drifting away, and most other areas will remain cloudy but dry, with sunny breaks developing over the north. Lows near 2 C and highs 10 to 12 C.

THURSDAY looks mostly cloudy with stronger east to northeast winds developing, and isolated wintry showers in the north. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 4 to 7 C (perhaps 7 to 10 C near south coast).

FRIDAY and the following weekend (2-3 Nov) appear likely to remain dry and cool with rain gradually approaching towards Monday 4th.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with highs of about 8 C.

Sunday, 27 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 27 Oct to 2 Nov 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, the first half of the interval will be quite cool and the second half equally mild.
-- Rainfall will average near normal, most of it will come on Wednesday and Thursday, dry in most places until then.
-- Sunshine will average near normal to 25% above normal in some parts of the north.


FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny with a few cloudy intervals, and isolated showers in the north. It will continue rather cold with highs 8 to 11 C. Moderate north to northeast winds at times (40 to 60 km/hr).

TONIGHT will bring clear skies with a few clouds, and frost is likely in most rural areas. Lows -3 to +2 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy with moderate northeast winds at times, highs 9 to 12 C.

TUESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy, and there could be some light rain by afternoon in west Munster. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs about 10 to 13 C.

WEDNESDAY will be overcast with rain moving in from the west, about 10 mm likely. Lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C.

THURSDAY will be overcast with rain and some fog, milder, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C. About 10-20 mm rain likely.

FRIDAY will see some partial clearing and showers more isolated, lows near 6 C and highs near 12 C.

The following weekend will likely be overcast with occasional showers, and temperatures near average at 10-12 C.

My local weather on Saturday was partly sunny with a few showers (possibly flurries) visible in all directions but it stayed dry here, and the high was about 7 C.

Tuesday, 29 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 29 Oct to 4 Nov 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal (at this time of year, highs near 12 and lows near 4).
-- Rainfall will average near normal to 25% above normal in parts of the south.
-- Sunshine will average only about half of normal, perhaps closer to normal in Ulster.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy across the south, and also into central counties at times, with some sunny breaks further north. Moderate east to northeast winds 50 to 70 km/hr in exposed areas, highs 9 to 11 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast with light rain spreading into parts of the south and southwest, lows 4 to 7 C.

WEDNESDAY will be overcast with occasional rain, highs near 12 C.

THURSDAY will be cloudy with a few breaks, but intervals of rain will become heavier at times by afternoon. Lows near 7 C and highs 11 to 14 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with passing showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

The weekend outlook is unsettled with some intervals of strong winds and rain, but a complex weather pattern with lows swirling around the region will bring changeable conditions with some less windy periods if low pressure develops slack central features. Highs will be generally around 10 C.

The further outlook is cold and rather windy as a northeast flow develops, probably too mild for snow but a sleety rain at times especially in eastern regions more exposed to the onshore winds. Temperatures for much of next week will only be around 5 to 8 C.

My local weather turned quite cold with light snow at times, falling temperatures from near 5 C this morning to -2 C by evening. This looks like being a short duration cold spell here as the cold air settles further south into the central and western U.S. The pattern unfortunately is going to amplify the strong east winds blowing into California making it difficult for them to fight raging wildfires for a few more days. Also this set-up will produce a storm in the central plains states moving towards the Great Lakes region later in the week.

Thursday, 31 October, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 31 Oct to 6 Nov 2019

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, mild at first, then rather cold towards the end of this interval.
-- Rainfall will average about 80 to 110 per cent of normal values, more likely to be above average in the south than elsewhere.
-- Sunshine will be only half to two-thirds of the normal amount which itself is only about 3 hours a day.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few breaks in the overcast, showers at first will give way to longer intervals of rain and some heavier bursts across the south by afternoon and evening with 10-20 mm possible there (about 5 mm elsewhere). Milder than recent days with highs of about 14 to 16 C in some parts of the south, 12 to 14 C further north.

TONIGHT will be overcast with a few showers and moderate southwest winds, lows near 7 C.

FRIDAY will continue partly to mostly cloudy with showers and moderate southwest winds, highs 11 to 13 C.

SATURDAY will bring some intervals of strong westerly winds and squally showers, possibly some with thunder or hail. Temperatures will remain steady around 10-12 C in the south, 8-10 C in the north where it likely won't get too windy. The coasts of Clare and north Kerry as well as parts of the south coast could see gusts to 110 km/hr around mid-day, and inland about 80 km/hr through the midlands and southeast.

SUNDAY will bring a few intervals of rain but there will be a slow clearing trend for parts of the north and northwest where winds may begin to turn more to the northeast. Temperatures will range from near 10 C in the southeast and west Munster, to 8 C in central counties and 5 to 7 C in the north.

MONDAY and TUESDAY of next week will be colder days with some brighter intervals despite a fair amount of cloud, passing sleety showers near the east and north coasts, and northeast winds of 40 to 70 km/hr adding a chill to rather low daytime temperatures of 5 to 8 C. Nights will be frosty inland and lows will be -2 to +2 C.

By WEDNESDAY a weak front is expected to arrive from the Atlantic. It will not be bringing very much warmth along, and could therefore produce some wintry mixtures of precipitation in higher inland areas, with cold rain showers at sea level. Temperatures will remain about the same, 6 to 9 C the most likely range.

That system will be followed by somewhat milder westerly flow from the Atlantic, highs could reach about 9 or 10 C, before more cold air pushes down around the following weekend and into mid-November; at this point the guidance looks quite cold for much of next month although never quite into obvious snowfall potential, but it wouldn't take much of an upgrade to get to that end result.

My local weather on Wednesday remained clear and quite cold although the chill is slowly moderating as a weak westerly flow develops around the strong high pressure that brought this chill -- the high was about 5 C. It looks like a more normal interval of late autumn weather ahead here. Snow is falling in parts of the Midwest as low pressure now in southern Michigan moves northeast; that will be followed by very cold northwest winds and snow squalls off the Great Lakes by late today in western portions and through late Friday further east.

UPDATE _ ALERT for strong winds and possible coastal flooding Kerry-Cork-Waterford
___________________________________________________________________

Friday 1st November, 2019 _ 6:15 pm

Rapidly developing low pressure west of Clare will track southeast across parts of west Munster tonight, emerging into the Atlantic around Youghal-Dunvargan area. This will force very strong southerly winds to develop ahead of the low, with possible coastal flooding at high tide in parts of county Cork in particular. When the low approaches, southerly winds of 80 to 130 km/hr may develop and cause some minor damage. As the low passes, expect winds in the affected counties to veer rapidly to west-northwest 70 to 120 km/hr.

The zone with potential for very strong winds will be south of a line approximately Ennis to Limerick (city) to Kilkenny and north Wexford, and to the north of that some moderately strong southeast winds are likely at times, but wind damage should be mainly confined to Kerry, Cork and Waterford as well as parts of south Wexford.

Would recommend avoidance of any travel in these areas during the windstorm as there will also be squally rain and poor visibility in general so that debris on roads will not be easily seen. Strong cross-winds may develop on some routes. The duration of any windstorm conditions is likely to be 4-6 hours. Conditions will tend to improve steadily after sunrise tomorrow.

Sunday, 3 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 3 to 9 November, 2019

-- Temperatures will average about 1 deg below normal, which means an average daytime high near 10 C and lows near 4 C.
-- Rainfall will average near normal to 25% above normal in some parts of the south mainly.
-- Sunshine will get into the mix occasionally and reach about a normal value of 2.5 hours a day.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be misty or foggy at times this morning, then brighter by mid-day and afternoon in the north at least, with outbreaks of showery and mostly light rain in the south, with highs of 8 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast with occasional light rain in the south, to partly cloudy further north, with lows 3 to 6 C.

MONDAY will continue to have some rain in parts of the south, partly cloudy further north with isolated showers developing mainly from streamers developing over northern parts of the Irish Sea and the Atlantic north of Connacht. Winds will become northeast to northerly at about 40 to 60 km/hr. A bit colder with highs 7 to 9 C.

TUESDAY will be a partly sunny day with only isolated and brief showers near some coasts, morning frosts with lows -2 to +3 C, and afternoon highs 9 to 11 C.

WEDNESDAY will bring a more organized band of rainfall, 10 to 20 mm likely, with temperatures steady around 8 to 10 C.

THURSDAY will become brighter and rather cold with scattered showers, some wintry on higher terrain, and some with hail and thunder. Lows will be 1 to 4 C and highs 6 to 9 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy and cold with morning frosts, lows -2 to +2 C and highs 6 to 9 C.

The outlook for next weekend is unsettled and windy with rain likely, temperatures a bit higher near 10 C. The following week looks rather cold but largely dry. Beyond that a stormy interval is being hinted at in some guidance (that would be about two weeks away).

My local weather on Saturday was partly cloudy and milder than recent days with highs reaching 10 C. Quite pleasant compared to the low cloud and rain that is frequently encountered in our climate in November (or snow). The snow line has retreated a bit to 1300 meters and snow in local mountains is a rather thin covering, most of it fell in late September and has been very slowly evaporating into dry air masses since then rather than melting.

Tuesday, 5 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 5 to 11 November 2019

-- Temperatures will average 0.5 to 1.5 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 75 per cent above normal, heaviest in the southeast.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be breezy at first with isolated showers, northerly winds 40-60 km/hr, then less breezy by afternoon with more widespread sunny intervals. Highs will be 7 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy although more overcast towards the west coast, and cold with some frost in a few spots in central, northern and eastern counties, lows -1 to +3 C.

WEDNESDAY will bring outbreaks of rain spreading gradually east, by midnight about 20-40 mm possible, with central and inland southern counties likely to see the higher values, and winds will become southeast 40-60 km/hr, with temperatures steady 8 to 10 C. Heavy rain will develop over higher parts of the southeast overnight into Thursday morning, with a flood risk for any rivers or streams in the region. As much as 60 mm could fall over west Wicklow and nearby parts of Kildare and Carlow with 40 mm in parts of south Dublin.

THURSDAY will see the rain tapering off to showers and some clearing by afternoon with winds backing to northeast 40-60 km/hr, rather cold with highs only 6 to 9 C. The heavier rain in the inland southeast will slowly diminish to showery falls. The flood risk would remain for some time after the heavy rain ends though.

FRIDAY will become partly cloudy and cold with isolated showers, possibly wintry on some higher ground. Lows -1 to +2 C with scattered frosts, and highs near 7 C.

SATURDAY will become overcast with rain developing later in the day, windy at times and potential for 15-25 mm rain, highs near 8 C.

SUNDAY is now looking quite cold and while some brighter intervals are likely, scattered heavy showers may form with locally heavy downpours, hail possible with those, highs near 7 C.

Next week will continue cold and unsettled with moderate east to northeast winds at times, some intervals of rain that might become sleety on higher ground, and some partly cloudy spells with more isolated showers created by streamers from the Irish Sea. Highs will generally be in the range of 6 to 9 C and overnight lows will be rather close to freezing, held up somewhat by cloud and the wind coming across still relatively warm waters.

My local weather on Monday was sunny and mild, so we took advantage and went for a day trip south of the border where it was even milder at about 15 C. We're expecting this to last one more day then colder air will clip us on the way past as a major cold wave develops over central regions headed for the east coast by the weekend. The winter appears to be coming early and fast for central and then eastern parts of North America.

Thursday, 7 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 7 to 13 November, 2019

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will generally be close to normal but could exceed that by 25-50 per cent in a few places, notably the capital region and Mayo.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values.


FORECASTS

TODAY will become partly cloudy in most areas with just isolated passing showers, but there will be persistent rainfall in a band currently moving south through Leinster. This seems likely to come to a halt by later this morning in the Dublin-Kildare-north Wicklow region with the risk of some localized flooding as 20-30 mm could fall over some of these areas, notably south Dublin and north Wicklow. Elsewhere rainfalls of trace to 3 mm would be more widespread. Rather cold with highs 7 to 9 C. Winds moderate northwest over parts of Munster, and easterly in Ulster, rather light and variable between those regimes due to slack gradients around the centre of low pressure moving through.

TONIGHT will see partial clearing and fairly widespread frost with lows -2 to +3 C.

FRIDAY will become mostly cloudy around mid-day with some light rain developing in the west by late afternoon. Rather cold with highs around 7 or 8 C.

SATURDAY will start out blustery with rain during the early morning hours clearing east after sunrise, to leave a partly cloudy and breezy day with a few passing showers. About 10 mm of rain is expected in the first part of the day. Morning lows around 4 C and afternoon highs will be near 9 C.

SUNDAY will be generally dry until late in the day with increasing cloud after some morning frosts. There will be some scattered but isolated showers and some of those could be wintry on higher ground. Lows near -2 C and highs near 7 C.

MONDAY will see another fast-moving band of rain early in the day, followed by partial clearing. Cool with highs near 7 C.

Most of next week will be quite cold with wintry mixtures possible on higher ground by mid-week, a cold rain or hail showers at times closer to sea level, in moderate northwesterly winds much of the time. Towards the end of the week it could turn a few degrees milder briefly but then more cold weather is indicated beyond that brief respite. Except for that milder turn, highs will generally be 5 to 8 C. (perhaps 10-12 C for one or two days around Friday 15th).

My local weather did turn a bit colder as expected but it stayed clear after a few hours of low cloud with the frontal passage this morning, and the highs were closer to our normal temperatures at this time of year, 5 to 8 C. The more severe cold stayed further east and it looks like we will be edging back upward again until another cold front arrives on Friday night.

Saturday, 9 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 8 to 14 November, 2019

-- Temperatures will average 1.0 to 2.0 deg below normal, coldest around middle of next week.
-- Rainfall will average near normal values, or slightly below in some parts of the west and north.
-- Sunshine will average a little above normal, closer to 3 hours a day than the normal 2 to 2.5 hours.


FORECASTS

TODAY ... Becoming partly cloudy as rain gradually ends over parts of the Leinster coast, with a few more showers developing in moderate westerly winds 40 to 60 km/hr. Some showers could be briefly heavy with hail and thunder. Highs will be 7 to 10 C.

TONIGHT ... A few clear intervals, cold. Lows -1 to +3 C with scattered frosts.

SUNDAY will have variable cloudiness and a few isolated showers, moderate southwest winds becoming stronger by evening with another overnight rainfall expected before Monday morning, highs on Sunday around 10 C.

MONDAY will become quite breezy and colder with passing showers, highs near 8 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with passing showers, breezy and cold, highs near 7 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY are looking very cold and windy with intervals of rain followed by passing wintry showers, some accumulations of sleet possible on higher ground, and highs only 5 to 8 C with winds veering from westerly to northerly 50 to 70 km/hr adding further chill.

FRIDAY will remain cold but not as windy, sharp frosts are likely and highs still only 5 to 8 C.

The outlook calls for slightly milder conditions by the following weekend although only marginally (7 to 11 C) then with another rather strong front likely, colder again after that.

My local weather was overcast, reasonably mild and dry again (which is unusual) with a high of about 9 C.

Monday, 11 November, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland


TRENDS for the week of 11 to 17 November 2019

-- Temperatures will continue 2 to 3 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will be quite variable from one location to another as most systems will become banded which means large differences likely, the higher amounts (25 to 50 per cent above normal) are likely to be in central Leinster towards east Munster, while somewhat further north and west there could be perhaps half that much.
-- Sunshine will also be rather variable as persistent bands will be cloudy most of the time, so where rainfall is above normal sunshine will likely be quite low, while other places see perhaps 25% more than average for this time of year.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be blustery and cold with passing showers, more frequent in the west, but sometimes extending across the country into the east coast counties as well. Some showers will have hail and thunder. Coatings of hail or sleet may be encountered in some places especially over higher terrain. Winds west to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr except 80 to 110 km/hr in exposed Atlantic counties. Highs 5 to 8 C but feeling colder due to the wind.

TONIGHT will see a gradual reduction in both the wind and the coverage area of showers, but what is left over may become wintry in places. Lows -2 to +3 C with scattered frosts likely, some black ice conditions may develop by midnight over rural roads.

TUESDAY will become partly cloudy with more isolated showers more confined to east Ulster and north Leinster. Winds will continue to be northwest until afternoon when a light and variable regime develops briefly, but wind speeds will be down from today's blustery conditions. Highs 6 to 9 C.

WEDNESDAY will see bands of rain with some sleet especially over higher terrain, as low pressure slowly organizes to the west and moves into Munster. This will result in winds turning more to the east and northeast for most regions except the south coast. Some bands of rain will be heavy and persistent, but other places may be between bands and not picking up as much accumulating rain. Central Leinster to east Munster may be the favoured location for the heavier rain bands, with sleet or even snow developing over hilly terrain in that region. Further north and west there may be some areas with just partly cloudy conditions and infrequent showers, but another band of heavier rain may move through north and west Connacht. Winds will become east to northeast 40 to 60 km/hr. Cold and raw with morning lows 2 to 4 C and highs 5 to 7 C. Winds will become stronger overnight with some bands perhaps turning wintry at elevations above 250 metres.

THURSDAY will see the windy and unsettled conditions continuing with strong northeast winds backing further to northerly at times. Heavy bands of sea effect streamers are likely in Leinster with mixed forms of precipitation and some thunder and lightning. Snow accumulations are only likely on higher ground but melting snow or sleet could fall closer to sea level. Winds northeast to north 60 to 90 km/hr will add considerable chill to already low temperatures in the 4 to 7 C range.

FRIDAY will become less windy and more settled as bands become isolated and fragmented, although probably in similar locations to the previous two days. Some longer intervals of sunshine will develop. Slight frosts on Friday morning, with sharper and more severe frosts likely Friday night. Lows near -2 C and highs near 5 C.

SATURDAY will see increasing cloud and slightly moderating temperatures near 9 C as a weaker storm system develops and moves through with intervals of rain. Freezing levels will rise somewhat changing any sleet or snow back to rain, but then it will start to turn colder again for Saturday night as winds turn more northwesterly again.

SUNDAY is likely to be breezy and cold with passing showers, some wintry again. Highs only 5 to 7 C.

The outlook for next week calls for quite cold conditions to persist with a few more intervals of rain or sleet in mostly northeasterly winds as a storm track develops to the south of Ireland into France. It probably won't be cold enough for all-out wintry conditions but those may be encountered over higher terrain at times. Temperatures will remain marginal for wintry forms of precipitation in the 5 to 8 C range mostly, with slight frosts at night.

My local weather turned sunny again on Sunday after a very brief interval of light sleet or drizzle before sunrise. This made some of the local higher routes icy in the shade but otherwise it was a dry and relatively pleasant day with highs near 6 C. We got a good view of the rising full moon this evening. The almanac says the full phase occurs on Tuesday at 13:36 hours in your time zone (which is 0536h Tuesday here). We had an extra week of daylight saving time and changed to standard time last weekend here. The governments of western provinces and states want to abolish the time change and go to Pacific daylight saving time year-round (which means dark mornings but a bit of daylight to almost 5:00 p.m. at the winter solstice). I'm not sure if this is going ahead or not, they want to have all Pacific region jurisdictions doing this together to avoid confusion. I don't think it has become an issue anywhere else and I'm not really sure what led to this other than in our laid back part of the world changing the clocks seems to be a lot of work to some of our guiding lights.