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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 49 sanfranbest


    Hubertj wrote: »
    https://www.sherryfitz.ie/buy/house/dublin/ballsbridge/106-baggot-lane-ballsbridge-dublin-4-739098

    What am I missing here? This house is around the corner from mine. My house is 3 beds and a bit bigger. My house is in it boll*x valued at €1.2M.

    Very confusing.

    Wow!
    They bought it in 2016 for 650k,,, now they want almost double that,
    Crazy price,,, wonder what it will actually sell for?

    https://propertypriceregisterireland.com/details/106_baggot_lane_ballsbridge_dublin_4_co_dublin_ireland-234791/


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,184 ✭✭✭riclad


    Theres a large student accomodation building near o,connell street .
    its about 3 years old.
    i read they are now taking tourists in part of the building .
    obviously many students are now using online acess , using zoom or other apps.
    theres no need to rent an expensive room near a college in the city centre .
    i think houses will be stable or go up because people will want more space if the are working from home for the next few years .
    If you go around the city centre ,theres at least 4 large buildings being
    built , for offices and retail .
    i wonder will there be any tenants for these new buildings in a years time .
    When many shops right now are empty and closed since march.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Wow!
    They bought it in 2016 for 650k,,, now they want almost double that,
    Crazy price,,, wonder what it will actually sell for?

    https://propertypriceregisterireland.com/details/106_baggot_lane_ballsbridge_dublin_4_co_dublin_ireland-234791/

    I think they did a load of work on it when they bought it but could it really add €550k?


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,090 ✭✭✭jill_valentine


    riclad wrote: »
    Theres a large student accomodation building near o,connell street .
    its about 3 years old.
    i read they are now taking tourists in part of the building .
    obviously many students are now using online acess , using zoom or other apps.
    theres no need to rent an expensive room near a college in the city centre .
    i think houses will be stable or go up because people will want more space if the are working from home for the next few years .
    If you go around the city centre ,theres at least 4 large buildings being
    built , for offices and retail .
    i wonder will there be any tenants for these new buildings in a years time .
    When many shops right now are empty and closed since march.

    Agree with the gist, but it's worth noting that the student accommodation rush was always a bit of a fig leaf to get tourist rentals thrown up as quickly and easily as possible anyway to a large extent. I live in the middle of fancy "student" co-share territory and it was always evident the bulk of their business was wheeling suitcases past my bus stop every morning.

    (Another conversation altogether, but I'm really struggling to imagine how all those units will be repurposed now. Tourism is a long way off coming back to where it is, students are studying from long distance, and their design couldn't be less appropriate for actually living in post-Covid.)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 186 ✭✭KennisWhale


    Hubertj wrote: »
    I think they did a load of work on it when they bought it but could it really add €550k?

    No way. I am shocked at that valuation. To me it looks more like an apartment. I was thinking even the 650k looks a bit high on that basis. You said your place was around the corner, how off would the price be, approximately and size wise of your place?

    Edit: that being said, in the general area the 650k might be reasonable though 1.2m is completely off what would be considered reasonable.

    Both of these are around 850k, pretty close by but IMO far nicer (even if the Baggot Lane place was asking 850k!):

    https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/17-albert-place-east-off-grand-canal-street-south-city-centre-dublin-2/4391704

    https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/21-erne-street-south-city-centre-dublin-2/4450300


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  • Registered Users Posts: 49 sanfranbest


    No way. I am shocked at that valuation. To me it looks more like an apartment. I was thinking even the 650k looks a bit high on that basis. You said your place was around the corner, how off would the price be, approximately and size wise of your place?

    Edit: that being said, in the general area the 650k might be reasonable though 1.2m is completely off what would be considered reasonable.

    Both of these are around 850k, pretty close by but IMO far nicer (even if the Baggot Lane place was asking 850k!):

    https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/17-albert-place-east-off-grand-canal-street-south-city-centre-dublin-2/4391704

    https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/21-erne-street-south-city-centre-dublin-2/4450300

    Totally agree, 1.2m is crazy, and it's a mews in a lane, the other two houses are much nicer.


  • Registered Users Posts: 529 ✭✭✭Smouse156


    Wow!
    They bought it in 2016 for 650k,,, now they want almost double that,
    Crazy price,,, wonder what it will actually sell for?

    https://propertypriceregisterireland.com/details/106_baggot_lane_ballsbridge_dublin_4_co_dublin_ireland-234791/

    750k


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    No way. I am shocked at that valuation. To me it looks more like an apartment. I was thinking even the 650k looks a bit high on that basis. You said your place was around the corner, how off would the price be, approximately and size wise of your place?

    Edit: that being said, in the general area the 650k might be reasonable though 1.2m is completely off what would be considered reasonable.

    Both of these are around 850k, pretty close by but IMO far nicer (even if the Baggot Lane place was asking 850k!):

    https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/17-albert-place-east-off-grand-canal-street-south-city-centre-dublin-2/4391704

    https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/21-erne-street-south-city-centre-dublin-2/4450300

    I think my house is 130 sq metres ish. I bought in 2015 and paid similar price, then upgraded kitchen bathrooms etc etc. It’s a great location, few mins walk to baggot st, gcd, town etc. Baggot lane is nice and quiet, doesn’t look the best as the mews are all in different states

    The other 2 houses are too close to pearse st. Unfortunately it’s a sh*t hole around there no matter what people say. Different ball game once you cross the canal. But I agree they are nicer houses.


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,013 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Looking at a 4 bed semi D in Munster, second hand new build home 4 years old. Price is 329k.
    Take home pay after tax is 3,200k per month. Have been mortage approved (joint application) have 50k deposit saved and few grand for solicitors fees outside of the deposit.
    My questions are:
    1. Is the house worth it? Same house sold for 269k 4years ago when it was built.
    2. Would i be able to afford to pay the mortgage back over 25 years on my pay.
    3. Am i making a big mistake are house prices going to crash?. I have a refundable deposit paid.

    Thanks.

    Houses in rural have continued to rise over the last 3-5 years. They were slower to recover than Dublin prices so there prices reflect that compared to 4years ago.

    Repayments would be about 1220/month over 25years on a 5year fixed rate. That is 38 percent of take home pay. It a bit above what is recommended however on low wage this will always e an issue.

    Will houses prices crash Who knows. But those that are most bearish on this consider that WFH will attract people to houses outside larger urban areas. How this will effect rural houses prices is the question

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,992 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Sigh, I've stated before that i predict a huge economic crash, the crash of the property market will lag behind the general economy, hence why i think it'll drop around 10-15% next year and possibly more the year after.

    A bigger crash than the one we are currently in?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,992 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Yes you are correct to say that we don't know the full fall out of the economic crash. If it is short and sharp then there will probably be no impact on the housing market.

    If it is a slow then the probability of a implosion in the financial market increases.

    IMF forecasts:

    weo_oct20_tab1_1.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,402 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Geuze wrote: »
    IMF forecasts:

    weo_oct20_tab1_1.png

    Do these forecasts including what they are classifying as a severe stress with more lockdowns or is it based on the assumption that a vaccine is found and we all go back to normal.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,992 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Is a price drop of say 100k expected.?

    No.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,992 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Do these forecasts including what they are classifying as a severe stress with more lockdowns or is it based on the assumption that a vaccine is found and we all go back to normal.


    https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/09/30/world-economic-outlook-october-2020

    The baseline projection assumes that social distancing will continue into 2021 but will subsequently fade over time as vaccine coverage expands and therapies improve.

    Local transmission is assumed to be brought to low levels everywhere by the end of 2022. The medium-term projections also assume that economies will experience scarring from the depth of the recession and the need for structural change, entailing persistent effects on potential output. These effects include adjustment costs and productivity impacts for surviving firms as
    they upgrade workplace safety, the amplification of the shock via firm bankruptcies, costly resource reallocation across sectors, and discouraged workers’ exit from the workforce. The scarring is expected to compound forces
    that dragged productivity growth lower across many economies in the years leading up to the pandemic—relatively slow investment growth weighing on physical capital accumulation, more modest improvements in
    human capital, and slower efficiency gains in combining
    technology with factors of production.


  • Registered Users Posts: 979 ✭✭✭Vestiapx


    Yes you are correct to say that we don't know the full fall out of the economic crash. If it is short and sharp then there will probably be no impact on the housing market.

    If it is a slow then the probability of a implosion in the financial market increases.
    What if they print money ?


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,402 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Vestiapx wrote: »
    What if they print money ?

    There is a limit to the amount of money they print and history has thought us that lessons in relation to this.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 173 ✭✭Springy Turf


    Geuze wrote: »
    https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/09/30/world-economic-outlook-october-2020

    The baseline projection assumes that social distancing will continue into 2021 but will subsequently fade over time as vaccine coverage expands and therapies improve.

    Local transmission is assumed to be brought to low levels everywhere by the end of 2022. The medium-term projections also assume that economies will experience scarring from the depth of the recession and the need for structural change, entailing persistent effects on potential output. These effects include adjustment costs and productivity impacts for surviving firms as
    they upgrade workplace safety, the amplification of the shock via firm bankruptcies, costly resource reallocation across sectors, and discouraged workers’ exit from the workforce. The scarring is expected to compound forces
    that dragged productivity growth lower across many economies in the years leading up to the pandemic—relatively slow investment growth weighing on physical capital accumulation, more modest improvements in
    human capital, and slower efficiency gains in combining
    technology with factors of production.

    I think for Ireland's case (not listed there) there is the shock of Brexit to consider as well. Odds are 50/50 on no deal right now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,992 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Vestiapx wrote: »
    What if they print money ?

    If?

    QE started years ago.

    The ECB started QE in 2014.

    They have created billions of euro to buy financial assets.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,992 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Vestiapx wrote: »
    What if they print money ?


    https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/implement/omt/html/index.en.html


    The ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme (APP) is part of a package of non-standard monetary policy measures that also includes targeted longer-term refinancing operations, and which was initiated in mid-2014 to support the monetary policy transmission mechanism and provide the amount of policy accommodation needed to ensure price stability.
    It consists of the
    • corporate sector purchase programme (CSPP)
    • public sector purchase programme (PSPP)
    • asset-backed securities purchase programme (ABSPP)
    • third covered bond purchase programme (CBPP3)

    APP net purchases, by programme

    Between October 2014 and December 2018 the Eurosystem conducted net purchases of securities under one or more of the asset purchase programmes. During the net asset purchase phase, monthly purchase pace averaged:

    €60 billion from March 2015 to March 2016
    €80 billion from April 2016 to March 2017
    €60 billion from April 2017 to December 2017
    €30 billion from January 2018 to September 2018
    €15 billion from October 2018 to December 2018

    Between January 2019 and October 2019, the Eurosystem fully reinvested the principal payments from maturing securities held in the APP portfolios. The Governing Council aimed to maintain the size of its cumulative net purchases under each constituent programme of the APP at their respective levels as at the end of December 2018.

    On 12 September 2019 the ECB Governing Council decided that “net purchases will be restarted under the Governing Council’s asset purchase programme (APP) at a monthly pace of €20 billion as from 1 November 2019. The Governing Council expects them to run for as long as necessary to reinforce the accommodative impact of its policy rates, and to end shortly before it starts raising the key ECB interest rates.” On 12 March 2020 the ECB Governing Council decided to add “a temporary envelope of additional net asset purchases of €120 billion” until the end of 2020.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,992 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Vestiapx wrote: »
    What if they print money ?

    Here is the amount of money created each month by the ECB, used to buy financial assets:

    index_content.en_clip_image002.png?tyui


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  • Registered Users Posts: 39 Meandyou999


    Houses in rural have continued to rise over the last 3-5 years. They were slower to recover than Dublin prices so there prices reflect that compared to 4years ago.

    Repayments would be about 1220/month over 25years on a 5year fixed rate. That is 38 percent of take home pay. It a bit above what is recommended however on low wage this will always e an issue.

    Will houses prices crash Who knows. But those that are most bearish on this consider that WFH will attract people to houses outside larger urban areas. How this will effect rural houses prices is the question
    Thanks.
    Would it be safee over 30 years.
    Also more interest paid.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,016 ✭✭✭JJJackal


    I think for Ireland's case (not listed there) there is the shock of Brexit to consider as well. Odds are 50/50 on no deal right now.

    I wonder if COVID has mediated the shock of no deal.

    By this I mean, has alot of the negative already been done eg decreased tourists, decreased consumption of Irish products in UK

    Anyone know?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,510 ✭✭✭OwlsZat


    JJJackal wrote: »
    I wonder if COVID has mediated the shock of no deal.

    By this I mean, has alot of the negative already been done eg decreased tourists, decreased consumption of Irish products in UK

    Anyone know?

    I thought it was just about our beef/dairy exports. 85% go to the UK. We will need to reduce the prices in a currently loss making sector.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,094 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    OwlsZat wrote: »
    I thought it was just about our beef/dairy exports. 85% go to the UK. We will need to reduce the prices in a currently loss making sector.

    Loss making?

    There is billions being made.

    Agri will be hit hard by a no deal Brexit but the real money will be lost in services.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 173 ✭✭Springy Turf


    Danzy wrote: »
    Loss making?

    There is billions being made.

    Agri will be hit hard by a no deal Brexit but the real money will be lost in services.

    By who? Not the farmers - they are on subsidies to make ends meet.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4 CardMagic


    Anyone know when we are likely the see more new developments finished in dublin? I see a lot of signs for new builds as I travel around Dublin but progress seems slow. The HTB scheme appears quite lucrative but I feel I could be waiting a long time and information is hard to come by for these new developments.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8 jgt3


    By who? Not the farmers - they are on subsidies to make ends meet



    True, but the industry as a whole is making cash hand over fist. Really a rigged system we built.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,540 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    jgt3 wrote: »
    True, but the industry as a whole is making cash hand over fist. Really a rigged system we built.

    Do you work for free then?


  • Registered Users Posts: 8 jgt3


    cnocbui wrote: »
    Do you work for free then?


    Certainly not working for free. Don't know where anyone asked for that.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,540 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    jgt3 wrote: »
    Certainly not working for free. Don't know where anyone asked for that.

    I took it you were talking about house building. were you talking about something else?


This discussion has been closed.
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