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2020 officially saw a record number of $1 billion weather and climate disasters.

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Comments

  • #332
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Thargor wrote: »
    Jesus... :rolleyes:

    Relax, he caught you fabricating the data in a graph like Donald Trump altering a hurricanes track with a sharpie marker and you were humiliated, we get it, but you brought it on yourself when you made up lies to support your climate change denial, what did you think was going to happen?

    Fabricating? made up lies? That would imply that it was deliberate. I made a mistake and owned up to it. What more do you want?

    Someone making claims that X was due to Y and not due to Z needs to have data to back that up too. Akrasia made the usual claims about that ice event but when challenged on it he went underground for a month.


  • #333
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Banana Republic 1 wrote: »
    Sydney is spelt with a y not an i.

    I know that, hence my use of [sic] when replying to Akrasia, who it was who spelled it with an "i". Still, you would never pull him up on anything, would you?

    And btw, when it comes to spelling and grammar, you are the last person who should be slinging mud.


  • #334
    Banana Republic 1
    Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    And btw, when it comes to spelling and grammar, you are the last person who should be slinging mud.

    Can you graph those incidents out there!


  • #335
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Banana Republic 1 wrote: »
    Can you graph those incidents out there!

    I don't have the bandwidth for them all...


  • #336
    Akrasia
    Registered Users Posts: 22,233 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    Ah, you're back. It's been a while. Now have you any news on that mystery factor that you claimed probably caused the 1895 Houston ice storm but which couldn't have caused this year's? Also, did you find any actual observational data to show how this year's event was caused by Arctic amplification, because that's what you said?
    No news on 1895 I'm afraid. My posts from weeks ago explain my position on this.
    And given that it's only been 4 weeks since the Texan winter storm ended, I think it's a little bit soon to expect peer reviewed published data that analyses it properly yet.
    All i am saying is that what happened is consistent with Jennifer Francis' theories on arctic amplification, It explains what happened, but it will take time to demonstrate that this is the actual cause
    [qute]
    Sure while you're at it, any data to show that the Sidney [sic] flood is also due to agw, as implied?[/QUOTE]


    The most recent 'State of the climate report' in Australia reported that Climate change has caused increases in the intensity of heavy rainfall events in Australia.
    The rainfall intensity is 10% higher now than before. That 10% could well have been the difference between overtopping that Dam, and not overtopping it.
    Again, it will take time for research to be completed into this specific event, but we already know that climate change is causing more intense rainfall events in Australia. The most damaging impacts of climate change are at the extremes. And climate change makes the extremes more likely by adding enough to a 'severe rainfall event' to turn it into a life threatening event that destroys everything in its path
    Heavy rainfall
    • Heavy rainfall events are becoming more intense.
    Observations show that there has been
    an increase in the intensity of heavy
    rainfall events in Australia. The intensity
    of short-duration (hourly) extreme
    rainfall events has increased by around
    10 per cent or more in some regions
    and in recent decades, with larger
    increases typically observed in the north
    of the country. Short-duration extreme
    rainfall events are often associated
    with flash flooding, and so these
    changes in intensity bring increased
    risk to communities. This is particularly
    so in urban environments where the
    large amount of impervious ground
    cover (e.g. concrete) leads to increased
    flooding during heavy downpours.
    Heavy rainfall events are typically
    caused by weather systems such as
    thunderstorms, cyclones and east coast
    lows. Daily rainfall totals associated
    with thunderstorms have increased
    since 1979, particularly in northern
    Australia. This is due to an increase in
    the intensity of rainfall per storm, rather
    than an increase in the number of storms
    in general.
    At the same time, the number of
    low-pressure systems that can
    bring heavy rainfall to heavily
    populated parts of southern Australia
    have declined in recent decades.
    This could have implications for
    recharging water storages and water
    resource management.
    As the climate warms, heavy rainfall
    events are expected to continue to
    become more intense. A warmer
    atmosphere can hold more water vapour
    than a cooler atmosphere, and this
    relationship alone can increase moisture
    in the atmosphere by 7 per cent per
    degree of global warming. This can
    cause an increased likelihood of heavy
    rainfall events. Increased atmospheric
    moisture can also provide more energy
    for some processes that generate
    extreme rainfall events, which further
    increases the likelihood of heavy rainfall
    due to global warming
    http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/documents/State-of-the-Climate-2020.pdf


    Can you quote the actual posts from me so I can respond to what was actually said instead of your version of what you claim I said

    I tried to go back through this thread to find it myself but all I gave up after I kept seeing you putting Quotation marks around things that you claimed I said but actually never did

    I suppose it is much easier to make up your own graphs and quotes...


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  • #337
    Banana Republic 1
    Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    Akrasia wrote: »
    Can you quote the actual posts from me so I can respond to what was actually said instead of your version of what you claim I said

    I tried to go back through this thread to find it myself but all I gave up after I kept seeing you putting Quotation marks around things that you claimed I said but actually never did

    I suppose it is much easier to make up your own graphs and quotes...

    Burnt and round house kicked.


  • #338
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    ^ great examples above at just how neolibs operate. Ignore their own many flaws and just hound in on the trivial mistakes of others to give the impression that they, and they alone, are the ever righteous ones.

    @Banana, I posted some data there about a week ago in response to your disinformation piece from RTE, and you disappeared afterwards. Care to comment now about it, or are you just going to predictable feign the impression that you have no idea what I'm talking about?

    New Moon



  • #339
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Akrasia wrote: »
    No news on 1895 I'm afraid. My posts from weeks ago explain my position on this.
    And given that it's only been 4 weeks since the Texan winter storm ended, I think it's a little bit soon to expect peer reviewed published data that analyses it properly yet.
    All i am saying is that what happened is consistent with Jennifer Francis' theories on arctic amplification, It explains what happened, but it will take time to demonstrate that this is the actual cause


    The most recent 'State of the climate report' in Australia reported that Climate change has caused increases in the intensity of heavy rainfall events in Australia.
    The rainfall intensity is 10% higher now than before. That 10% could well have been the difference between overtopping that Dam, and not overtopping it.
    Again, it will take time for research to be completed into this specific event, but we already know that climate change is causing more intense rainfall events in Australia. The most damaging impacts of climate change are at the extremes. And climate change makes the extremes more likely by adding enough to a 'severe rainfall event' to turn it into a life threatening event that destroys everything in its path




    Can you quote the actual posts from me so I can respond to what was actually said instead of your version of what you claim I said

    I tried to go back through this thread to find it myself but all I gave up after I kept seeing you putting Quotation marks around things that you claimed I said but actually never did

    I suppose it is much easier to make up your own graphs and quotes...

    It was in the Texas cold event thread itself. If you want examples, here they are. We can go around in circles all night.

    Here you directly linked that event to climate change:
    When you say immediately, you really mean a week after it started?
    Then you go on to put some random weatherman’s words into my mouth?

    I’m not talking about climate change for the lols, I’m linking this event to climate change because there is a plausible mechanism that links them. What do you think about the mechanism I referred to? The Jennifer Francis theory that the polar vortex and jet stream weaken when the difference between arctic temps and tropical temps are reduced

    When I asked how come a similar event happened back in 1895 you replied:
    I don’t know, there were the right atmospheric conditions that were caused by something else. Events always have at least one cause.

    Followed by
    Polar amplification weakens the jet stream and polar vortex making these events that bit more likely. Doesn’t mean they were impossible or never happened before AGW, but the dice is getting loaded

    I asked if you had any data that illustrated how this particular event was caused, and it is then that you went awol for a month.
    What I'm getting at is can you provide some charts or something to show that this particular event was caused by something other than that "something" that you think was probably responsible for the 1895 snowstorm but were unable to identify. If you're able to attribute this event to agw then I'm sure you have some evidence to back it up, showing how the now frozen Arctic somehow caused that northerly outbreak. The link you posted, by the way, does not prove a thing and in fact seems to say the opposite, i.e. there is no evidence or consensus to say that it could have anything to do with it. For example,
    If Arctic amplification is influencing the jet stream in this way, there could be widespread impacts on weather across vast swaths of North America and Eurasia. In particular, a flurry of recent studies have explored whether a weaker, wavier jet stream could lead to more Arctic air intrusions at low latitudes like the extreme cold spell gripping vast swaths of the country this week.

    However, these connections are contentious. While scientists generally agree that Arctic warming can influence the jet stream, there is little consensus on whether the jet stream has already experienced significant changes due to climate change, how extreme any future changes will be, or how much of an effect that will have on mid-latitude weather.

    Complicating matters further, the direction of influence might go both ways: A study published last year suggested that random fluctuations in the jet stream might be enhancing Arctic warming by transporting heat and moisture from mid-latitudes north.

    The findings have some important caveats. While the authors found a link between a warming Arctic and slower summer weather, their results—like much of the research on Arctic amplification and cold air outbreaks in winter—don’t prove that the former causes the latter. Future research will be needed to demonstrate any causal links to Arctic warming and the jet stream.

    Even if rapid Arctic warming does lead to more stalled summer weather patterns further south, it’s unlikely that it will be the sole factor at play. “There are many factors that influence [weather] persistence, and the temperature gradient might not be the dominant one,” Screen says.

    As Kornhuber and Tamarin-Brodsky note in their paper, not all climate models agree that the Arctic amplification effect will continue to grow more intense in the summer. But even in scenarios where the equator-to-pole temperature difference begins growing again—implying a reduced Arctic amplification effect—the authors’ models still project summer weather patterns slowing down in North America.


  • #340
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Banana Republic 1 wrote: »
    Burnt and round house kicked.
    Banana Republic 1 wrote: »
    Sydney is spelt with a y not an i.
    Banana Republic 1 wrote: »
    Lol, Jesus H and Joseph Stalin !
    Banana Republic 1 wrote: »
    Lol, burn! Long time coming mind.

    Do you have anything to add other than this trolling nonsense?


  • #341
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Akrasia wrote: »

    The most recent 'State of the climate report' in Australia reported that Climate change has caused increases in the intensity of heavy rainfall events in Australia.
    The rainfall intensity is 10% higher now than before. That 10% could well have been the difference between overtopping that Dam, and not overtopping it.
    Again, it will take time for research to be completed into this specific event, but we already know that climate change is causing more intense rainfall events in Australia. The most damaging impacts of climate change are at the extremes. And climate change makes the extremes more likely by adding enough to a 'severe rainfall event' to turn it into a life threatening event that destroys everything in its path

    It is widely known that La Niña causes large positive rainfall anomalies in northern and eastern Australia, and this had been signaled well in advance (months ago).

    The "heavy rainfall" events you quoted are of one hour duration and have risen by around 10% in northern Australia. You neglected to mention about southern populated Australia, which is the topic of this discussion, where heavy rainy lows have decreased.
    At the same time, the number of low-pressure systems that can bring heavy rainfall to heavily populated parts of southern Australia have declined in recent decades. This could have implications for recharging water storages and water resource management.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/australias-changing-climate.shtml


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  • #342
    Birdnuts
    Registered Users Posts: 9,631 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Akrasia wrote: »
    It actually fits in perfectly fine with the science behind climate change

    The boundaries between Arctic and tropical air are breaking down
    It’s destabilizing climate and weather is getting disrupted as a result

    Additional energy in the biosphere causes more extreme weather events

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/10/fires-and-floods-australia-already-seesaws-between-climate-extremes-and-theres-more-to-come

    Australia has more to worry about today than mice, a hundred year flooding event is underway in Sidney with mass evacuations required to minimize loss of life

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.smh.com.au/national/nsw-weather-live-updates-floods-across-sydney-and-nsw-as-more-rain-lashes-the-state-warragamba-dam-spills-20210320-p57ck5.html

    What utter baloney - only the winter before the PV approached near record levels in the Northern Hemisphere. There really is no end to the spoofing of the extreme climate alarmists:rolleyes:


  • #343
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Akrasia wrote: »
    It actually fits in perfectly fine with the science behind climate change

    The boundaries between Arctic and tropical air are breaking down
    It’s destabilizing climate and weather is getting disrupted as a result

    Additional energy in the biosphere causes more extreme weather events

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/10/fires-and-floods-australia-already-seesaws-between-climate-extremes-and-theres-more-to-come

    Australia has more to worry about today than mice, a hundred year flooding event is underway in Sidney with mass evacuations required to minimize loss of life

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.smh.com.au/national/nsw-weather-live-updates-floods-across-sydney-and-nsw-as-more-rain-lashes-the-state-warragamba-dam-spills-20210320-p57ck5.html

    Jet stream not getting 'wavier' despite Arctic warming
    Date:
    February 19, 2020
    Source:
    University of Exeter
    Summary:
    Rapid Arctic warming has not led to a 'wavier' jet stream around the mid-latitudes in recent decades, pioneering new research has shown.

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/02/200219152855.htm

    I'll repeat myself again, the jet stream was far 'wavier' during the colder period of the mid to late 20th century, which is precisely why this was a colder period in the first place. (more frequent Arctic outbreaks across the N. Hemisphere during the winter months, which impacted on longer term averages) Look at any sequence of reanalysis charts from this period, and you'll note that synoptic patterns from week to week and even day to day were far more volatile across the Atlantic, Europe and the US than they are today.

    New Moon



  • #344
    Banana Republic 1
    Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    ^ great examples above at just how neolibs operate. Ignore their own many flaws and just hound in on the trivial mistakes of others to give the impression that they, and they alone, are the ever righteous ones.

    @Banana, I posted some data there about a week ago in response to your disinformation piece from RTE, and you disappeared afterwards. Care to comment now about it, or are you just going to predictable feign the impression that you have no idea what I'm talking about?

    Your'e confused
    Thelonious Monk wrote: »
    You know things are bad when even RTE are reporting this!

    https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1365020069026226177


  • #345
    Banana Republic 1
    Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    Do you have anything to add other than this trolling nonsense?

    Says you! :rolleyes:


  • #346
    Banana Republic 1
    Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    Tesla saves Texas after epic fossil fuel failure.

    https://reneweconomy.com.au/teslas-secret-big-battery-revealed-in-texas/


  • #347
    Akrasia
    Registered Users Posts: 22,233 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    ^ great examples above at just how neolibs operate. Ignore their own many flaws and just hound in on the trivial mistakes of others to give the impression that they, and they alone, are the ever righteous ones.

    @Banana, I posted some data there about a week ago in response to your disinformation piece from RTE, and you disappeared afterwards. Care to comment now about it, or are you just going to predictable feign the impression that you have no idea what I'm talking about?

    How exactly am I a ‘neolib’ can you define that please?


  • #348
    Birdnuts
    Registered Users Posts: 9,631 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Banana Republic 1 wrote: »
    Tesla saves Texas after epic fossil fuel failure.

    https://reneweconomy.com.au/teslas-secret-big-battery-revealed-in-texas/

    ?? - Its not even been built or tested yet:confused:


  • #349
    Banana Republic 1
    Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    Yes, Australia is a land of flooding rains. But climate change could be making it worse
    https://theconversation.com/yes-australia-is-a-land-of-flooding-rains-but-climate-change-could-be-making-it-worse-157586


  • #350
    Banana Republic 1
    Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    Birdnuts wrote: »
    ?? - Its not even been built or tested yet:confused:

    Its going to be the same as in Australia
    https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-can-teslas-giant-south-australian-battery-achieve-80738


  • #351
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Banana Republic 1 wrote: »
    Yes, Australia is a land of flooding rains. But climate change could be making it worse
    https://theconversation.com/yes-australia-is-a-land-of-flooding-rains-but-climate-change-could-be-making-it-worse-157586

    I find it amazing that the Hawkesbury-Napean valley has become so built up, given that the record high flood level recorded there was almost 20 metres way back in 1867.
    Improving our understanding of historical weather data may help improve future climate change risk assessment. For example, past floods in the Hawkesbury–Nepean have been a lot worse than the current disaster. In 1867, the Hawkesbury River at Windsor reached 19.7 metres above normal, and in 1961 peaked at 14.5 metres. This is worse than the 13.12 metres above normal recorded at Freemans Reach on March 23.

    It’s sobering to think the Hawkesbury River once peaked 6 metres higher than what we’re seeing right now. Imagine the potential future flooding caused by an East Coast Low during strong La Niña conditions.



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  • #352
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Banana Republic 1 wrote: »
    Ive been caught up in the covid threads in the last couple of days.

    How boring.

    New Moon



  • #353
    Banana Republic 1
    Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    why corporate climate pledges of net zero emissions should trigger a healthy dose of skepticism
    https://theconversation.com/why-corporate-climate-pledges-of-net-zero-emissions-should-trigger-a-healthy-dose-of-skepticism-156386


  • #354
    Banana Republic 1
    Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    “Antarctica’s ice shelves are trembling as global temperatures rise – what happens next is up to us”

    https://theconversation.com/antarcticas-ice-shelves-are-trembling-as-global-temperatures-rise-what-happens-next-is-up-to-us-158540


  • #355
    Nabber
    Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Banana Republic 1 wrote: »
    “Antarctica’s ice shelves are trembling as global temperatures rise – what happens next is up to us”

    https://theconversation.com/antarcticas-ice-shelves-are-trembling-as-global-temperatures-rise-what-happens-next-is-up-to-us-158540

    At what point is it a run away climate?


  • #356
    Banana Republic 1
    Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭Banana Republic 1


    Nabber wrote: »
    At what point is it a run away climate?

    Presumably beyond 1.5 degrees.


  • #357
    Graces7
    Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Akrasia wrote: »
    Just for perspective. It’s taken a year for 2 million people to die from Covid, and this has shut down the global economy ( and rightly so)

    We’re getting ever closer to unsurvivable heatwaves in heavily populated parts of the world

    What happens when 5 million people die suddenly in a week when WB temps go above 37c and the power grid fails

    That’s a genuine question by the way

    Millions of people, women, men, children, dying suddenly in a short space of time because their bodies cannot cool down because the air is warmer than their skin. Power grids aren’t designed to take that A/C load, so there will be brownouts and failures. Not only poor people die, but people who thought they had prepared and mitigated for such events are killed too

    It might start as a once off ‘extreme’ event

    But what happens when it happens again and millions more die

    Suddenly the cost of geoengineering seems small compared to millions of innocent people dropping dead in a horrific slow motion car crash

    When? You mean IF.


  • #358
    Pa ElGrande
    Registered Users Posts: 3,495 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    Graces7 wrote: »
    When? You mean IF.

    He's been spending too much time reading the book of Revelations, all those plagues, unbearable heat, cataclysms of all sorts, except flooding! That's not mentioned. God stuck to his word to date, he said he wouldn't do it again. (Isaiah 54:9) :D

    The solution as always: admit your sinful nature, and repent.

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • #359
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    'Study' shows that the 2018 'Beast from the East' was a direct result of poor Arctic ice cover:

    https://weather.com/news/climate/video/arctic-ice-loss-powered-2018-beast-of-the-east-snowstorm-in-europe-study-says-0

    And that more snowfalls in Europe can be expected because of this. The very opposite of what 'the experts' were telling us only a few years back.

    But how is it that Siberian sourced winterly easterlies were far more common across northern Europe (including Ireland) in times when winter Arctic sea ice was far more expansive? This question is curiously not addressed.

    New Moon



  • #360
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    'Study' shows that the 2018 'Beast from the East' was a direct result of poor Arctic ice cover:

    https://weather.com/news/climate/video/arctic-ice-loss-powered-2018-beast-of-the-east-snowstorm-in-europe-study-says-0

    And that more snowfalls in Europe can be expected because of this. The very opposite of what 'the experts' were telling us only a few years back.

    But how is it that Siberian sourced winterly easterlies were far more common across northern Europe (including Ireland) in times when winter Arctic sea ice was far more expansive? This question is curiously not addressed.

    Not one mention of who these scientists are or where we can see the papers. Just take her word for it.

    This is the level of "evidence" reporting that the general public is supposed to swallow. We see climate change being thrown into the list of causes of everything from migration of seagulls inland to the spread of coronavirus, without any questioning. It's become second nature at this stage.


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  • #361
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    'Study' shows that the 2018 'Beast from the East' was a direct result of poor Arctic ice cover

    Given that the arctic sea ice cover levels in early 2018 were virtually identical to the levels seen in early 2017, I do have to ask - where was the BTFE in late winter 2016-7?


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