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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Winter 2020/Spring 2021
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Meteorite58 wrote: »Saturday still showing potential for Convective weather under the passage of an upper trough and associated cold pool. Lapse rates should be half decent and with good sunny spells expected diurnal heating should aid convection. Models showing outbreak of heavy wintry showers with hail as the day progresses, peaking in the afternoon. Not a lot of shear available so if thunderstorms do break out will probably be pulse like and short lived. Will see.
Yes as low as 516 decametre heights, at this point downgrades are going to be limited. So this cold spell is locked in and will probably yield frequent showers of graupel/snow.0 -
Sat still holding firm on convective potential leading to widespread showers some heavy and of hail and potential for thunderstorms quite widespread also I reckon. Would have thought that Sat could be the most active day over Ireland in some time. Cold air aloft coincides with peak diurnal heating, Lapse rates fairly decent, what is lacking is DLS so probably nothing too explosive or long lasting, more pulse like ? Showers and activity look to decrease early evening. Mix of wintry showers and becoming very cold leading to widespread frosts after dark. Snow and hail on higher elevations leading to snowcapped mountains which should be spectacular Sun morning.
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A clearly defined convergence zone as well down along the Irish sea in the early hours of Sun morning, MUCAPE readings quite low but might produce some heavy showers and hail/ wintry showers possible too along the E coasts maybe the odd flash out to sea.
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Bit of a bust regarding lightning today, some overnight and late afternoon / early evening, a few more showed up in Wexford in Blitzortung.
Mostly sunshine here near Tralee, cloud size increased in the afternoon, got a wintry sleet shower and one big hail shower, mountains have signs of white on them.
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Great fireworks display captured in Arkansas late last month:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_Cu2YfpW_YNew Moon
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Cold air aloft over the coming days coinciding with peak diurnal heating and a certain amount of shear giving the opportunity for Convective weather. Tues and Thurs look like the best chance of some sparks but low enough risk atm would think. Met Eireann adding the risk of hail also those two days. A departure from the very settled weather of late. Rain is probably well needed at this stage on the land, just 18.5mm here in Kerry this month so far and just 0.2mm in the last 6 days. Very hit and miss with this kind of rainfall though , a few places getting a drenching and others getting very little.
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Big heavy convective showers tomorrow and will see if any produce hail and lightning , would reckon it needs enough sunny breaks for surface heating to get Convection proper going. Very cold upper pool of air and troughs slow moving across the country, not much lower shear available but some Deep layer shear, more then Tuesday. Much more moisture available in the atmosphere tomorrow so some places could get a fair drenching whilst a lot of areas will receive little or any rain. A couple of hundred J/kg available at times, best chance of any lightning would be in the afternoon, some places locally could get 5 to 10mm rainfall , possibly in a short amount of time. Met Eireann did mention threat of localized surface flooding in the forecast after the news tonight.
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Very heavy hail and sleet in Dublin City centre about 10 minutes ago, grey and drizzly now and gone very cool.
Some leftovers after hail in Texas few hours ago?
https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2021/04/28/destructive-hail-slams-texas/0 -
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Just a few strikes recorded today , not enough shear or convergence it would seem even though there was good cold uppers. Risk of hail and thunderstorms again on the forecast tomorrow. More Deep Layer Shear available but uppers a bit less cold and lapse rates not as good as today ,low chance of an isolated thundery shower more so the Southern half of the country I reckon.
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Some big convection here in Kerry and looked threatening a few times but staying dry for now.
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/
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Showers feeding down on a Northerly flow over the next few days convective in nature over land producing some heavy showers with the risk of hail and thunderstorms, more so in the Northern half of the country. Best chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon during peak diurnal heating. Nice bit of Deep Layer Shear showing up on the charts for Weds.
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:D 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_Cu2YfpW_Y
This discussion has been closed.
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