March 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

Annual scoring Jan to Mar 2021


Starting next month the best 3/4 totals will be shown, but for now we continue to use only total scores in the ranking. Your ranks after Jan and Feb shown to right of other data.


rank _ FORECASTER ________ Jan _Feb _Mar __ TOTAL _ (ranks Jan, Jan-Feb)


_01 __ JPmarn _____________63 _ 76 _ 69 ___ 208 ____ 08, t03

_02 __ Kindred Spirit ________58 _ 82 _ 67 ___ 207 ____ t11, 02

t 03 __ dacogawa ___________79 _ 60 _ 67 ___ 206 ____ 02, t03

t 03 __ Appledrop __________ 56 _ 75 _ 75 ___ 206 ____ 15, t05

_05 __ tae laidir ____________67 _ 64 _ 74 ___ 205 ____ t05, t05


(t05)_____ Con Sensus ______65 _ 59 _ 81 ___ 205 ____(t07), (t11)


_06 __ Artane2002 _________ 67 _ 48 _ 87 ___ 202 ____ t05, 14

_07 __ Western Storm _______45 _ 81 _ 73 ___ 199 ____ 22, t09

_08 __ sryanbruen __________75 _ 76 _ 47 ___ 198 ____ 04, 01

_09 __ john mac ___________ 62 _ 68 _ 67 ___ 197 ____ 09, 07

_10 __ MrSkinner __________ 58 _ 63 _ 75 ___ 196 ____ t11, 12


(11) __ ___ NormaL ________ 59 _ 76 _ 58 ___ 193 ____(t10), (05)


_11 __ eon1208 ___________ 53 _ 76 _ 62 ___ 191 ____ 18, 08

_12 __ sunflower3 __________76 _ 37 _ 72 ___ 185 ____ 03, 15

_13 __ Gonzo _____________ 81 _ 20 _ 83 ___ 184 ____ 01, 19

_14 __ Adam240610 ________58 _ 68 _ 54 ___ 180 ____ t11, t09

_15 __ Pauldry ____________ 58 _ 47 _ 72 ___ 177 ____ t11, 16

_16 __ DOCARCH __________ 54 _ 50 _ 70 ___ 174 ____ 17, 17

t 17 __ Mr stonewall ________ 65 _ 59 _ 40 ___ 164 ____ 07, 11

t 17 __ Bsal _______________41 _ 50 _ 73 ___ 164 ____ t23, t21

t 19 __ funsterdelux ________ 59 _ 40 _ 62 ___ 161 ____ 10, 20

t 19 __ Cirrus Business ______35 _ 53 _ 73 ___ 161 ____ 27, 23

_21 __ dasa29 ____________ 48 _ 43 _ 65 ___ 156 ____ 20, t21

_22 __ 200motels __________38 _ 65 _ 47 ___ 150 ____ 26, 18

_23 __ M.T. Cranium _______ 47 _ 37 _ 65 ___ 149 ____ 21, 24

_24 __ SleetandSnow _______30 _ 41 _ 77 ___ 148 ____ 29, 26

_25 __ waterways __________55 _ 62 _ 28 ___ 145 ____ 16, 13

_26 __ Joe Public __________ 41 _ 42 _ 45 ___ 128 ____ t23, 25

_27 __ sdanseo ____________51 _ --- _ 52 ___ 103 ____ 19, 27

_28 __ Danno _____________38 _ 10 _ 25 ____ 73 ____ 25, 28

_29 __ BLIZZARD7 _________10 _ 21 _ 34 ____ 65 ____ 30, 30

_30 __ Bazlers ____________ 34 _ ---_ --- ____ 34 ____ 28, 29

_31 __ Tazio ______________--- _ 26 _ --- ____ 26 ____ ---, 31

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Looks like a great contest shaping up with not much spread between first and middle of the table, so far.

I was able to verify that the provisional March scoring is accurate, the SUN was in fact very close to the 90% used for scoring, closer to 92% from the numbers available. This would give one additional point to western storm, john mac, waterways and Mr Stonewall. I have amended the annual scoring table as follows, to incorporate those added points.

Adjusted annual scoring Jan to Mar 2021

rank _ FORECASTER ________ Jan _Feb _Mar __ TOTAL _ (ranks Jan, Jan-Feb)


_01 __ JPmarn _____________63 _ 76 _ 69 ___ 208 ____ 08, t03

_02 __ Kindred Spirit ________58 _ 82 _ 67 ___ 207 ____ t11, 02

t 03 __ dacogawa ___________79 _ 60 _ 67 ___ 206 ____ 02, t03

t 03 __ Appledrop __________ 56 _ 75 _ 75 ___ 206 ____ 15, t05

_05 __ tae laidir ____________67 _ 64 _ 74 ___ 205 ____ t05, t05


(t05)_____ Con Sensus ______65 _ 59 _ 81 ___ 205 ____(t07), (t11)


_06 __ Artane2002 _________ 67 _ 48 _ 87 ___ 202 ____ t05, 14

_07 __ Western Storm _______45 _ 81 _ 74 ___ 200 ____ 22, t09

_08t__ sryanbruen __________75 _ 76 _ 47 ___ 198 ____ 04, 01

_08t__ john mac ___________ 62 _ 68 _ 68 ___ 198 ____ 09, 07

_10 __ MrSkinner __________ 58 _ 63 _ 75 ___ 196 ____ t11, 12


(11) __ ___ NormaL ________ 59 _ 76 _ 58 ___ 193 ____(t10), (05)


_11 __ eon1208 ___________ 53 _ 76 _ 62 ___ 191 ____ 18, 08

_12 __ sunflower3 __________76 _ 37 _ 72 ___ 185 ____ 03, 15

_13 __ Gonzo _____________ 81 _ 20 _ 83 ___ 184 ____ 01, 19

_14 __ Adam240610 ________58 _ 68 _ 54 ___ 180 ____ t11, t09

_15 __ Pauldry ____________ 58 _ 47 _ 72 ___ 177 ____ t11, 16

_16 __ DOCARCH __________ 54 _ 50 _ 70 ___ 174 ____ 17, 17

_17 __ Mr stonewall ________ 65 _ 59 _ 41 ___ 165 ____ 07, 11

_18 __ Bsal _______________41 _ 50 _ 73 ___ 164 ____ t23, t21

t 19 __ funsterdelux ________ 59 _ 40 _ 62 ___ 161 ____ 10, 20

t 19 __ Cirrus Business ______35 _ 53 _ 73 ___ 161 ____ 27, 23

_21 __ dasa29 ____________ 48 _ 43 _ 65 ___ 156 ____ 20, t21

_22 __ 200motels __________38 _ 65 _ 47 ___ 150 ____ 26, 18

_23 __ M.T. Cranium _______ 47 _ 37 _ 65 ___ 149 ____ 21, 24

_24 __ SleetandSnow _______30 _ 41 _ 77 ___ 148 ____ 29, 26

_25 __ waterways __________55 _ 62 _ 29 ___ 146 ____ 16, 13

_26 __ Joe Public __________ 41 _ 42 _ 45 ___ 128 ____ t23, 25

_27 __ sdanseo ____________51 _ --- _ 52 ___ 103 ____ 19, 27

_28 __ Danno _____________38 _ 10 _ 25 ____ 73 ____ 25, 28

_29 __ BLIZZARD7 _________10 _ 21 _ 34 ____ 65 ____ 30, 30

_30 __ Bazlers ____________ 34 _ ---_ --- ____ 34 ____ 28, 29

_31 __ Tazio ______________--- _ 26 _ --- ____ 26 ____ ---, 31

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Do you have those for every regular entrant or do you just add up the possible top ten after a look? I find it helpful to see what areas need the most work, and the bottom half of the pack need the help most. Maybe we should have a more complex scoring summary for the annual updates. It would be good to show the maximum possible score too, for IMT that would be 75, for MAX and MIN 60, for PRC 45 and for SUN 30. Bonus also 30 except you can sometimes pick up superbonus points.

Maybe a format like this (numbers are made up):

Forecaster _________ IMT _MAX _MIN _PRC _SUN __ Bonus __ Pen __ Total

Leader ____________ 71 __ 55 __ 54 __ 39 __ 27 __ 26 ____ -2 ____ 270

... and that should match the annual summary total points. I realize the ranks are not given explicitly, perhaps it could look like this:

Leader ____________ 71 __ 55 __ 54 __ 39 __ 27 __ 26 ____ -2 ____ 270
ranks ______________1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 4 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ -- ______ 1

Second ____________ 69 __ 56 __ 55 __ 38 __ 24 __ 24 ____ 0 _____ 266
ranks _____________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 5 ___ 4 ___ 5 _____-- _____ 2

... I don't want to make this too time-consuming for you, and I don't want to take over if you get my drift, but at the same time I think it's a valuable addition to scoring and I think I did provide it once a few years ago.

... Also, did you notice that I adjusted four SUN scores (up by one point) in March without reproducing the scoring table, but I did adjust the annual scoring table, so there's four people with that one extra point. You may have spotted that and added the one point for those four.

Great, I will take a look and see what I can find out about 200motels' score.

This is a great addition to the contest scoring and can help anybody get better, I think, with identification of weaknesses.

On occasion I add up scores incorrectly, despite going over the sums after the first effort. That has applied in the past to monthly additions and annual additions.

This category scoring would not lend itself to the best 10/12 format for tracking very easily since you'd be swamped with extra work looking for months to exclude. So let's not go down that rabbit hole.

Will post again if I find out anything about that score.

(later) ... I had a look, can't see any problem with your totals for 200motels which match the contest scoring. Any chance you meant to say BLIZZARD7? The one point differential there is caused by contest rule applied in January, minimum score 10. (the categories added up to 9, which explains the difference ... could say a penalty of -1 meaning one point added).

Also your scores for Danno didn't reconcile at first look, so I went back into the three months and found the same reason, Feb raw score 05 was adjusted to 10. So his "penalty" entry would be -5.

It's an un-penalty, something George Orwell didn't think of (and there wasn't much).

What to do during the wait for the rain delay at the Masters? Well here's a stab at the rankings for those category scores ...

Ranks for the three who have one or two contests only are shown in brackets, based on the adjustments mentioned to compare them directly. So they don't bump anyone with a rank below theirs, just like Con Sensus and NormaL. (by rank below we mean a higher numbered rank). Max Possible drops out of this table altogether. The penalty adjustments are not shown. Tot and Act scores are ranked. Con Sensus and NormaL can tie with forecasters in the table, and do not affect lower ranks (higher rank numbers), but forecasters who tie with only Con or Norma are not shown tied (only where tied with other forecasters). Adjusted scores of part-time entrants are not shown tied.

Also, "tot" ranks are adjusted for part-time entrants, "act" (actual) are just the raw contest ranks.

Anyone can use these ranking tables to figure out where they could improve their contest scoring. It's an oddity that our two leaders have not done particularly well with SUN, meanwhile almost everyone has one category where they do better than their overall performance.

Forecaster ___ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_BNS Tot Act


Jpmarn ______ 02_ 13_ 02t_11_ 22_ 11t____01__01 _Jpmarn
Kindred Spirit _ 01_ 09t 10t_ 01_ 23_ 18t____02__02 _Kindred Spirit
Appledrop ____ 12_ 07t 10t_ 07_ 09t 01____t03 _ t03 _Appledrop
Dacogawa ____ 13t 01t 02t_ 14t 06t_ 22____t03 _ t03 _Dacogawa
Tae laidir _____ 03t 01t_ 19t 04t 09t_ 11t____05__05 _Tae laidir

_ Con Sensus __(11t)06t)05)12t)16t) 09t___(t05)_(t05) __Con Sensus

Artane2002 ___ 08t 07t_ 05_ 18t_16t 07t___ 06__06 _Artane2002
Western Storm_ 06_ 17_ 15_ 12_ 03t 04____07__07 _WesternStorm
sryanbruen ____07_ 09t 17_ 14t 06t_ 02t___t08_ t08 _sryanbruen
john mac _____ 05_ 21_ 10t 04t 01 05t____ t08 _ t08 _john mac
MrSkinner _____08t 06_ 08t 23t 09t 09t____10__10 _Mr Skinner

_ NormaL _____(08)(19)(17t)07t)02t)04)___(11)(11)__NormaL

Eon1208 _____ 11_ 23t 06t 03_ 03t_ 05t ___ 11__11 _Eon1208
Sunflower3 ___ 22t 12_ 01_ 14t_02_ 18t____12__12 _Sunflower3
Gonzo _______ 18t 05_ 10t 18t_ 19t_11t____14__13 _Gonzo
Adam240610 __03t 09t_ 02t 27_ 26_ 18t____13__14 _Adam240610
pauldry ______ 16t 04_ 22t 23t_ 09t_09t____15__15 _pauldry
DOCARCH ____ 24_ 03_ 18_ 08t 16t_14t____16__16 _DOCARCH
MrStonewall ___16t 16_ 08t 26_ 24t_ 16t____t18_ t17 _MrStonewall
Bsal _________ 20_ 20_ 21_ 02_ 09t 18t____t18_ t17 _Bsal
Funsterdelux __ 22t 19_ 06t 18t_ 03t_16t___ 17_ t19 _Funsterdelux
CirrusBusiness_ 08t 22_ 24_ 08t 16t_ 23t____ 20_ t19 _CirrusBusiness
Dasa29 ______ 13t 28_ 16_ 04t 19t_ 23t____ 21__21 _Dasa29
M.T. Cranium __18t 14t_ 25_ 18t_ 21_25____ 24__22 _M.T. Cranium
SleetAndSnow _25_ 14t 22t_ 13_ 09t 14t____ 23__23 _SleetAndSnow
200motels ____21_ 25_ 26_ 08t 06t_ 02t ____22__24 _200motels
waterways ____15_ 23t 19t_ 28_ 09t 07t ____ 25__25 _waterways
Joe Public ____ 27_ 18_ 10t 25_ 24t _26 ____ 26__26 _Joe Public
sdanseo ______(09)(23)(26)(04)(22)(11)___ (20)_27 _sdanseo (2/3)
Danno _______ 26_ 27_ 27t 14t 28_ 27 ____ 27__28 _Danno
BLIZZARD7 ___ 28_ 26_ 27t 22_ 27_28 ____ 28__29 _BLIZZARD7
Bazlers ______ (07)(29)(27)(26)(01) 000___(27)_ 30_Bazlers (1/3)
Tazio ________ (29)(29)(08)(14)(24) 002___(27)_ 31_Tazio (1/3)
_______________________________________

Yes, the ranks are just for this year, using the totals worked out by tae laidir (previous post). And you are correct about the interpretation. I think we might keep this reporting up but perhaps after each quarter of the contest, so not quite on the seasonal timetable, but after March, June, September and then maybe more often towards the end.