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Property Market 2019

  • 15-12-2018 7:33pm
    #1
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,278 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    As is now becoming a custom- we'll start a new thread to discuss all topics as they pertain to the property market in general, alongside people's predictions and experiences- for the year 2019.

    Its going to be an interesting year- with Brexit, if it comes to pass, at the end of March- and to misquote Donald Rumsfeld - the unknown unknowns that are likely to jump out at us, when we least expect them to.

    2018 thread is now closed.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 834 ✭✭✭GGTrek


    It looks like houses are being built in the wrong places for owner occupiers:
    https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/new-housing-crisis-on-horizon-as-supply-comes-on-stream-in-wrong-areas-37666390.html


    https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/property-ireland-2018-house-price-rises-slow-dramatically-in-dublin-but-other-cities-continue-to-soar-37665341.html


    So supply is finally coming albeit not close to where the jobs are.


    The main problem is that the rental market has diverged from the sale market (probably due to continuous absurd interference from the legislators), Tom Lyons:
    However, while there may be hope of relief for buyers, there is no indication that the rental market price rises are set to ease off.
    "2018 was the year that sales and rental segments detached."


    Conor Skehan:
    Mr Skehan predicts the over-supply of the wrong type of housing, the lack of convenient rental properties, and increasing rents will lead to the emergence of what he calls a "new urban politics". "Whether it will be new political parties or new politics by existing parties will depend on how the next 12 months is handled," he says.



    There is no hope for renters and landlords in Ireland in my opinion.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Prediction for 2019

    - prices to continue to rise before falling in H2 and then will drop due to impending recession in late 2019/20


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,205 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    The market is like a river with multiple streams feeding into it - I don't think you can talk about a single property market.

    One stream is high end property, which seems to be calming down considerably. Buyers here may be waiting until Brexit sorts itself out. Despite several predictions of imminent worldwide recession, there are plenty of mainstream commentators who are saying that economic fundamentals look quite strong - and we may even see a resolution to Trump/Brexit uncertainty in 2019 which would help confidence.

    The next stream is property for sale to your typical "middle class". Supply here seems to be increasing, and prices are bouncing off the Central Bank limits. Property is there to be bought if you want it, but you might have to compromise on location or size of property. This market will find a stable equilibrium over the next few years as no builder is going to build unless they can make a profit. Attempts to increase the % of social housing in new build estates could lead unintentionally to a large drop in building activity. I can't see anything other than a catastrophic Brexit as a short term threat, and the changes of that is quite minimal.

    Affordable housing for workers on lower wages remains a problem. There is property available, but the government affordability schemes (like all government schemes) are overly bureaucratic and not delivering. There is a bit of an expectation problem with lower paid workers expecting to be able to own a house close to Dublin city centre on a lower wage, which is never going to be realistic. The other problem is the cost of building - if a builder can only build houses for 200k at a minimum, that's the floor for new builds and no amount of protesting will fix it. Something radical needs to change here before this market changes - perhaps lower build standards.

    The "homeless"/social housing market. Hard to know with this one, there seems to be a few genuine cases and a lot of people trying to game the system. It generates a lot of noise, but I don't see any celebrities offering to build social housing in their large back gardens. Putting a small amount of social housing into private estates is already testing purchasers patience, and there seems to be considerable opposition to building large social housing estates. Not easy to see an answer to this one.

    The rental market appears to be screwed in the near term. Attempts to "fix" rents have largely backfired (as predicted), and small landlords are leaving the market. We have seen corporate landlords come in, and this can only be a good thing in terms of supply (and quality), but only if you can afford it. The demise of the bedsit/small apartment leaves a massive gap for cheaper rental accomodation for the lower paid. I think without some sort of radical change (e.g. allowing micro apartments New York style) there is no quick fix. This will generate a lot of noise from multinationals, as their foreign employees cannot source rental accommodation - maybe we'll see a return to the days when employers built housing for employees.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,001 ✭✭✭handlemaster


    Brexit brexit and brexit is going to place the market under pressure. The real test will be 2020 on as recession seems to be on the cards from 2020 on as pointed to by some analysts


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,683 ✭✭✭masterboy123


    I feel Brexit will cause an immediate short term spike in prices of properties. I know few people planning to move to Ireland from UK as their companies are moving to Ireland. That way many professionals will be living and working in Ireland.
    Brexit brexit and brexit is going to place the market under pressure. The real test will be 2020 on as recession seems to be on the cards from 2020 on as pointed to by some analysts


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  • Registered Users Posts: 149 ✭✭airportgirl83


    I feel Brexit will cause an immediate short term spike in prices of properties. I know few people planning to move to Ireland from UK as their companies are moving to Ireland. That way many professionals will be living and working in Ireland.

    https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/house-prices-2019-property-owners-warned-no-deal-brexit-will-take-ireland-into-the-unknown-37668643.html


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,184 ✭✭✭riclad


    Theres the high end market , house,s over 500k, in city area,s ,upper class area,s
    the rural market , the lower end of the market , council house,s etc
    I think 2 factors that will effect the market in 2019 is brexit and the stock market.
    The economy will be effected in 2019,
    why should new companys move to ireland when theres a major rental crisis .There will be some pushback from voters due to high rents,s
    ,people are spending some much on rent from their salarys .
    The stock market had a large decline in december .
    i think the strict rules on lending simply place limits on how much prices can rise even in dublin .


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 173 ✭✭beaz2018


    5% increase for 2019 coming according to Davy and myhome. Id imagine this will be mainly outside Dublin as there seems to be scope for people to borrow more as a % of their salary. Dublin is maxed out in that regard, apparently.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24



    To be honest no one knows for sure what the actual impact of Brexit will be. The only unbiased comment one can make is that there is a lot of uncertainty (what Bexit even means is not clear yet, and might not be for a while - even after the March deadline) . Someone saying that Brexit will push prices one way or another is making a lot of assumptions to deliver actual predictions out of that uncertainty. And given the large number of assumptions, how huge the impact would be if even one of them is wrong, and the relatively low level of certainty for each of them - I personally don’t give too much credit to any Brexit related prediction.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,687 ✭✭✭✭padd b1975


    beaz2018 wrote: »
    5% increase for 2019 coming according to Davy and myhome. Id imagine this will be mainly outside Dublin as there seems to be scope for people to borrow more as a % of their salary. Dublin is maxed out in that regard, apparently.

    Average wages are still rising which should translate into single figure growth at the middle/lower end of the market.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,070 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn


    beaz2018 wrote: »
    5% increase for 2019 coming according to Davy and myhome. Id imagine this will be mainly outside Dublin as there seems to be scope for people to borrow more as a % of their salary. Dublin is maxed out in that regard, apparently.

    Expect some loosening of credit if that happens.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 173 ✭✭beaz2018


    Expect some loosening of credit if that happens.

    There will be no loosening of credit, Philip Lane has been adamant about that.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,585 ✭✭✭Mickiemcfist


    beaz2018 wrote: »


    There will be no loosening of credit, Philip Lane has been adamant about that.

    Have to say, I'm a huge fan of his. A rare voice of reason in an Irish state body.


  • Registered Users Posts: 236 ✭✭Moonjet


    I think the actual process and legal changes involved in implementing Brexit will be long, messy, complicated and drawn out, certainly not something that will happen overnight on March 29th. As a result, any meaningful impact on the Irish property market will probably not be felt for at least 3-5 years.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15 Beheretomorrow


    beaz2018 wrote: »
    5% increase for 2019 coming according to Davy and myhome. Id imagine this will be mainly outside Dublin as there seems to be scope for people to borrow more as a % of their salary. Dublin is maxed out in that regard, apparently.

    I read this article too and my first thought was that these guys are bankers and have a vested interest to protect their industry. I'd be surprised if we see single digit growth this year. Housing in Hong Kong has fallen (-20%), so has Sydney (-10%) and the Bay Area has stagnated. Apple cut it sales outlook last night. We're in for a rocky ride in 2019 in my opinion.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,070 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn


    About 7.5k properties for sale in Dublin. Seems like a lot. Twice as many as a few years ago.


  • Registered Users Posts: 861 ✭✭✭Zenify


    About 7.5k properties for sale in Dublin. Seems like a lot. Twice as many as a few years ago.

    40% increase for properties for sale in Dublin compared to this time last year according to draft report.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 173 ✭✭beaz2018


    Zenify wrote: »
    40% increase for properties for sale in Dublin compared to this time last year according to draft report.

    How does this compare to other cities as a % of population, does anyone know?


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,472 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Moonjet wrote:
    I think the actual process and legal changes involved in implementing Brexit will be long, messy, complicated and drawn out, certainly not something that will happen overnight on March 29th. As a result, any meaningful impact on the Irish property market will probably not be felt for at least 3-5 years.


    That would indicate a sudden shock untill the legal issues are sorted out


  • Registered Users Posts: 15 Beheretomorrow


    Manhattan home sales fell 14 percent last year, the industry's steepest drop since 2009, according to new data.

    In the fourth quarter, the median price for an apartment in New York City fell below $1 million for the first time in three years.

    The decline in sales in the fourth quarter was the fifth-straight quarterly drop.

    From CNBC


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,542 ✭✭✭snotboogie


    Manhattan home sales fell 14 percent last year, the industry's steepest drop since 2009, according to new data.

    In the fourth quarter, the median price for an apartment in New York City fell below $1 million for the first time in three years.

    The decline in sales in the fourth quarter was the fifth-straight quarterly drop.

    From CNBC

    I wonder if the trade restrictions and tightening of regulation in China is stopping Chinese investors from dumping capital into foreign property markets. London, New York, Sydney and to a lesser extent San Francisco have all been heavily affected by this investment.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,933 ✭✭✭smurgen


    U.S manufacturing at it's slowest growth in 2 years and futures all down.it's happening!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,042 ✭✭✭ Peter Muscular Quirk


    The abject glee that some seem to be displaying when talking about a recession is really strange. Why would you possibly want a downturn or the economy to do worse? This won't only result in lower property prices. People will lose their jobs etc. Banks won't lend. Companies won't invest. It's not a good thing.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,933 ✭✭✭smurgen


    The abject glee that some seem to be displaying when talking about a recession is really strange. Why would you possibly want a downturn or the economy to do worse? This won't only result in lower property prices. People will lose their jobs etc. Banks won't lend. Companies won't invest. It's not a good thing.

    Don't be so emotive.it's just nice to see the "property prices can only go up brigade" facing a wave of reality in the short to medium term future. The arrogance and certainty that those in the previous thread spoke with was unfortunate.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,926 ✭✭✭✭titan18


    The abject glee that some seem to be displaying when talking about a recession is really strange. Why would you possibly want a downturn or the economy to do worse? This won't only result in lower property prices. People will lose their jobs etc. Banks won't lend. Companies won't invest. It's not a good thing.

    I wouldnt react with glee to a recession but I wouldn't mind one. Probably the best chance I have to buy a house as I'd have close to 20% deposit at current house prices, never mind if they went down.

    Course, could lose job or banks won't lend, and things could get worse in the country but I have hope it might shake things up politically and we might get some parties move more to the right economically.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,042 ✭✭✭ Peter Muscular Quirk


    smurgen wrote: »
    Don't be so emotive.it's just nice to see the "property prices can only go up brigade" facing a wave of reality in the short to medium term future. The arrogance and certainty that those in the previous thread spoke with was unfortunate.

    Emotive? You're easily agitated if you'd class my last post as emotive. Classifying people as arrogant for having an opinion on how property prices will progress in the near future is a bit strange. Demand is still much higher than supply and quoting syndney house prices as some kind of tracker for Irish prices is a bizzare argument to be making in my opinion. Not saying that was you btw, just that prices are as likely to go up as they are to go down on the next 3 to 5 years.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,070 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn


    titan18 wrote: »
    I wouldnt react with glee to a recession but I wouldn't mind one. Probably the best chance I have to buy a house as I'd have close to 20% deposit at current house prices, never mind if they went down.

    Course, could lose job or banks won't lend, and things could get worse in the country but I have hope it might shake things up politically and we might get some parties move more to the right economically.

    Banks didn’t lend last time. Cash buyers bought most of the property for 2-3 years. Good luck.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,502 ✭✭✭ Rex Disgusting Tariff


    The abject glee that some seem to be displaying when talking about a recession is really strange. Why would you possibly want a downturn or the economy to do worse? This won't only result in lower property prices. People will lose their jobs etc. Banks won't lend. Companies won't invest. It's not a good thing.

    It depends on your position really. If you already have a house, a stable long term job that won't be directly affected by a US recession, then said recession provides many opportunities, primarily in the stock market.

    If you don't have a house and you work for a US multinational in Ireland then yes that's a very different story.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,472 ✭✭✭Villa05


    The abject glee that some seem to be displaying when talking about a recession is really strange. Why would you possibly want a downturn or the economy to do worse? This won't only result in lower property prices. People will lose their jobs etc. Banks won't lend. Companies won't invest. It's not a good thing.


    The whole point of many posts here is that if we had a mature attitude to the property market we would avoid the worst of the damage caused by recessions. The property market operates in a boom bust cycle by choice and government policy.
    It is quiet simple to avoid these cycles and have a functioning property market


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    I saw prices rose by 12k last year.

    Does anyone know how much this is caused by new builds?

    A new build will obviously mean higher price. With more new builds, means higher price.


This discussion has been closed.
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