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Autumn 2014
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27-08-2014 9:40pm#1We are now 5 days away from meteorological Autumn, and therefore just within the reliable timeframe in terms of accurate weather forecasting. Time, I think, for an Autumn-related thread.
So what are your preferences/hopecasts for the coming season?
There are tentative signs of a traditional early September warm spell, which will be nice and a welcome change after the chilly August that we've had.
Beyond that, I'd like to see the warm weather continue until the end of the month. A bit of windy weather might be nice towards the end but not to the extent of last year's winter. I'd also hope for any colder weather to hold out until we're into winter proper, instead of it being wasted early on (as it was in 2010).3
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I put together a couple of charts that show a few average daily data for Autumn based on the 5 year period 2009-2013. Data is based on the 'IMT' index which MTC uses in the forum's monthly competition. The stations used in the IMT index are all inland stations located in only in central belt of the country - but given their relatively good spread, their combined daily means are fairly good at inferring weather & climate trends on a more national scale.
These charts show the average trend (a small-scale 'singularity') in weather types over the last 5 years during the Autumn period. Not to be used as a forecast by any means (year on year variation will always occur) but might give very very very rough idea as to what to expect in typical modern Irish Autumn
Daily Max/Min temperature trends for the season. Fairy stable up to to first part of October; cooling down significantly during 2nd half.
Pressure, Wind & Rain trends. Atlantic depressions tend to become more vigorous and frequent during the 2nd half of the season. Lengthy dry spells more likely in 1st half.
All data used from:
Met Eireann
ERA Interim
OgimetNew Moon
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Harry Palmr wrote: »A storm 10 days away? No one can know, I presume its suposed to be an ex Hurricane. Change 1 parameter by 1% and you'll get a completely different chart for 10 days.
14 You mean ... and yes highly unlikely to happen . Though no doubt it'll be feckin plastered over the papers tomorrow id say. 0 -
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Has been appearing on the GFS control run a few times now :cool:
Hardly there at all now :: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014101406/gfs-0-264.png?6?6
Or am I on the wrong ensemble ?
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Hardly there at all now :: http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014101406/gfs-0-264.png?6?6
Or am I on the wrong ensemble ?
Yep its certainly gone , was only the control that was showing it out of them all , its still showing A storm , just no were near what it was...
But sure..
Look whats in the atlantic right now
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