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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2019 / 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    Gonzo wrote: »
    2 full months of hoping and waiting left to go!




    the way you described it makes it sound kinda passively torturous.




    im off to stick pins in my eye.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    the way you described it makes it sound kinda passively torturous.




    im off to stick pins in my eye.

    A lot of us stopped paying regular attention to the charts after Christmas in January 2018, and then hopped on here after a few weeks just to see how things were going only to find the mother of all excited ramping threads in preparation for The Beast :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,386 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    I realise this is the tech thread. I think this is a relevant tech Q around the naming of tomorrows "storm".

    The Portuguese met named this yesterday as STORMELSA ( E ). However we just had STORM ATIYAH ( A ). It seems the Portuguese have already gone from A to D? We have only done A?

    So some saying IF this gets named by IRL or UK Met it could be called StormBrendan. OR will they stick with StormElsa? OR not named at all because it doesnt merit a name?


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    A lot of us stopped paying regular attention to the charts after Christmas in January 2018, and then hopped on here after a few weeks just to see how things were going only to find the mother of all excited ramping threads in preparation for The Beast :D

    The Beast from the East had a lot going for it with the stratosphere set up in a perfect state for the development of a massive Scandinavian High.
    aidanodr wrote: »
    I realise this is the tech thread. I think this is a relevant tech Q around the naming of tomorrows "storm".

    The Portuguese met named this yesterday as STORMELSA ( E ). However we just had STORM ATIYAH ( A ). It seems the Portuguese have already gone from A to D? We have only done A?

    So some saying IF this gets named by IRL or UK Met it could be called StormBrendan. OR will they stick with StormElsa? OR not named at all because it doesnt merit a name?

    France, Spain, Portugal and Belgium all co-operate and share a different set of storm names. They're a complete separate entity to our own names. UK, Ireland and Netherlands co-operate so we share the same storm names.

    Storm names used so far by France, Spain, Portugal and Belgium:

    Amelie (1–4 November)
    Bernardo (9–11 November)
    Cecilia (18–28 November)
    Daniel
    Elsa

    If it's already been named by another met, it's likely other mets will use the same name so as to avoid confusion (we could do without more confusion than what we already have with this entire system). It's the same with ex-hurricanes being called like ex-hurricane Helene instead of a new storm name.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,386 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    The Beast from the East had a lot going for it with the stratosphere set up in a perfect state for the development of a massive Scandinavian High.



    France, Spain, Portugal and Belgium all co-operate and share a different set of storm names. They're a complete separate entity to our own names. UK, Ireland and Netherlands co-operate so we share the same storm names.

    Storm names used so far by France, Spain, Portugal and Belgium:

    Amelie (1–4 November)
    Bernardo (9–11 November)
    Cecilia (18–28 November)
    Daniel
    Elsa

    If it's already been named by another met, it's likely other mets will use the same name so as to avoid confusion (we could do without more confusion than what we already have with this entire system). It's the same with ex-hurricanes being called like ex-hurricane Helene instead of a new storm name.

    So Sryanbruen, if we run with an already named storm .. this case we call it Storm ELSA. Do we then continue on from E to F for next storm OR do WE go back to B AND when we come to E again, skip E?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    aidanodr wrote: »
    So Sryanbruen, if we run with an already named storm .. this case we call it Storm ELSA. Do we then continue on from E to F for next storm OR do WE go back to B AND when we come to E again, skip E?

    We go back to B if the Irish, UK or Dutch Met were to name it. Remember how we had Storm Georgina in January 2018 then had Emma (Portuguese Met) in March and Hector in June.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,676 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    ens_image.php?geoid=64969&var=201&run=12&date=2019-12-17&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

    If this isn't the picture of uncertainty then I dunno what is. All to play for in the final week of December, into new years day. Do we stay with the mild and wet conditions or do we head towards a pattern change to something colder and dryer. The models clearly struggling.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    Gonzo wrote: »
    ens_image.php?geoid=64969&var=201&run=12&date=2019-12-17&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

    If this isn't the picture of uncertainty then I dunno what is. All to play for in the final week of December, into new years day. Do we stay with the mild and wet conditions or do we head towards a pattern change to something colder and dryer. The models clearly struggling.

    Yeah but there are a majority of the ensemble members in that on the milder and Rainier side
    Only A small number go below average temp wise


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,676 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Mortelaro wrote: »
    Yeah but there are a majority of the ensemble members in that on the milder and Rainier side
    Only A small number go below average temp wise

    true most of them are still on the mild side but I think this is an evolving situation with runs flipping between mild and cold multiple times. Could be interesting model watching over the next week to see where we end up in early January.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    Gonzo wrote: »
    true most of them are still on the mild side but I think this is an evolving situation with runs flipping between mild and cold multiple times. Could be interesting model watching over the next week to see where we end up in early January.

    I never bother looking beyond 8 days unless theres a lot less spread than that
    Form horse on pattern change though is a high anchored over us that eventually sinks south
    Settled and relatively mild would be the result of that
    No indication in the next 8 days of that and we have a record strong polar vortex at the moment locking the cold well up there

    https://twitter.com/Petagna/status/1207006476012851200?s=19


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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    2020 could start off nicely if GFS FI was to come true, we know it won't but fun to see

    gfs-1-384.png?0


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,095 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Villain wrote: »
    2021 could start off nicely if GFS FI was to come true, we know it won't but fun to see

    gfs-1-384.png?0

    2021? Now that is seriously FI


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,676 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    charts still all over the place for new years, some have the Atlantic continuing to barge in over us, some have high pressure, a few have short lived northerlies and the odd one has a go at getting the winds in from the east. The majority are still fairly mild and unsettled. They are trying to bring colder conditions but clearly struggling against the relentless power of the Atlantic this season. I've a feeling the Atlantic will continue to dominate for another while but would like to see it running out of steam towards the middle of January.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    GFS showing Scandi high way out in FI.

    gens-17-1-300.png


  • Posts: 0 Niko Drab Gumdrop


    pad199207 wrote: »
    2021? Now that is seriously FI

    Roughly T9,000+ hrs into FI. You would need some pretty hefty computational power to generate a half trustworthy chart........


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    Nabber wrote: »
    GFS showing Scandi high way out in FI.

    gens-17-1-300.png

    That's an ensemble member not the operational run
    It would be too high a pressure for showers over Ireland and by the looks of the rest of the chart,the high would sink south
    All academic of course!


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,676 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    the ensemble runs over the past 24 hours continue to back away from anything cold or dry. The latest runs are mild to very mild with possibly a prolonged spell of mild weather from 26th of December with mild south-westerlies taking over and lasting into the first week of January. Of course this can all change but looks like we are a long way from anything exciting or wintry.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,339 ✭✭✭esposito


    Gonzo wrote: »
    the ensemble runs over the past 24 hours continue to back away from anything cold or dry. The latest runs are mild to very mild with possibly a prolonged spell of mild weather from 26th of December with mild south-westerlies taking over and lasting into the first week of January. Of course this can all change but looks like we are a long way from anything exciting or wintry.

    What’s new. Same every Christmas since 2011. Boring unseasonable weather.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,676 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    esposito wrote: »
    What’s new. Same every Christmas since 2011. Boring unseasonable weather.

    The ECM isn't as overly mild as the GFS and may have some dryer conditions after Christmas, but neither are pointing at anything proper wintry for the next few weeks. Hopefully we will see some big and positive changes in January.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    As long as the strong polar vortex is anchored where it is, anything notably wintry is not going to happen anytime soon.
    We may, if we are lucky, get the odd polar maritime flow, or brief northerly, which, as times goes on, would increase our chance of a brief window for snow, before a brief ridge is swiftly followed by low pressure or fronts barreling back in. The one crumb of comfort is with lower sst's this year to the north west the chance for something wintry increases as time goes on, if we get an airflow from either of these directions, but on present guidance those hoping for something potent and prolonged from a north easterly or easterly airflow are going to be disappointed.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,339 ✭✭✭esposito


    As long as the strong polar vortex is anchored where it is, anything notably wintry is not going to happen anytime soon.
    We may, if we are lucky, get the odd polar maritime flow, or brief northerly, which, as times goes on, would increase our chance of a brief window for snow, before a brief ridge is swiftly followed by low pressure or fronts barreling back in. The one crumb of comfort is with lower sst's this year to the north west the chance for something wintry increases as time goes on, if we get an airflow from either of these directions, but on present guidance those hoping for something potent and prolonged from a north easterly or easterly airflow are going to be disappointed.

    We have so much going against us don’t we.
    The strong Polar Votex (which always seems to strengthen at this time of year) , the vast Atlantic Ocean beside us. The jet stream picking up and heading our direction (courtesy of the strong polar vortex).

    The Azores high...

    For our latitude we are really unlucky not to be getting colder, snowier winters.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,676 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    esposito wrote: »
    We have so much going against us don’t we.
    The strong Polar Votex (which always seems to strengthen at this time of year) , the vast Atlantic Ocean beside us. The jet stream picking up and heading our direction (courtesy of the strong polar vortex).

    The Azores high...

    For our latitude we are really unlucky not to be getting colder, snowier winters.

    Ireland is possibly the worst positioned country this far north in the northern hemisphere for cold winters. If we were slightly further east we would tap into cold winters more often. The UK isn't great for cold winters but they tap into them more than we do, same can be said about warm summers.

    If we were further west, cold zonal conditions would likely be slightly more wintry as the air from Canada and Greenland would be slightly cooler with less distance and sea involved. We are too far west to tap into the cold from the east most of the time and too far east to see any benefits from a cold zonal. We have 100s to 1000s of miles of water to our south, west and north. We only have the Uk to our east and even that lowers our chances in easterlies as we have so many shadows to worry about such as Isle of Man, Ulster and Wales. The wind direction has to mostly east to slightly north of east to drive in snow showers across the widest distance of the Irish sea, usually between Dublin and Liverpool/Lancashire.

    We need a perfect set of ingredients to have proper snow or cold in this country which is why we only see decent snowfall about once or twice every 10 years if we are lucky.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,339 ✭✭✭esposito


    Gonzo wrote: »
    Ireland is possibly the worst positioned country this far north in the northern hemisphere for cold winters. If we were slightly further east we would tap into cold winters more often. The UK isn't great for cold winters but they tap into them more than we do, same can be said about warm summers.

    If we were further west, cold zonal conditions would likely be slightly more wintry as the air from Canada and Greenland would be slightly cooler with less distance and sea involved. We are too far west to tap into the cold from the east most of the time and too far east to see any benefits from a cold zonal. We have 100s to 1000s of miles of water to our south, west and north. We only have the Uk to our east and even that lowers our chances in easterlies as we have so many shadows to worry about such as Isle of Man, Ulster and Wales. The wind direction has to mostly east to slightly north of east to drive in snow showers across the widest distance of the Irish sea, usually between Dublin and Liverpool/Lancashire.

    We need a perfect set of ingredients to have proper snow or cold in this country which is why we only see decent snowfall about once or twice every 10 years if we are lucky.

    Quite depressing what you said above but it is true.

    Anyway, I suppose this Christmas coming could be a lot worse. At least there is highly unlikely to be temperatures of 14 or 15 C on Christmas Day going by the latest guidance. So no repeat of 2011 or 2015.

    I remain hopeful of a pattern change in January. Still a large chunk of winter left yet.

    Good riddance to 2019 I say


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,676 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    esposito wrote: »
    Quite depressing what you said above but it is true.

    I remain hopeful of a pattern change in January. Still a large chunk of winter left yet.

    Good riddance to 2019 I say

    I remain hopefully too, I think we'll have to wait till January to see if there is going to be any sort of a pattern change. One of the things that gives me hope is that the Atlantic has been raging since September with very little let up, almost 4 months of deluges. This has to run out of steam at some stage. Most winters we get unlucky with the Atlantic firing up around end of October or beginning of November, but we've had it like this for almost quarter of a year now. The charts seemed like they were on to something over the past week, but the past 2 days has seen a reverse in opportunities with most now keeping us mild and the Atlantic going.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,676 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    a few cold runs this morning, this one is the pick of the bunch, unfortunately very little chance of this happening. If it did happen it would bring plenty of snow showers to Leinster with -10 uppers over the country. One can only dream.

    GFSP09EU06_336_1.png

    GFSP09EU06_336_2.png

    The majority of the runs keep the Atlantic going while others have high pressure sitting around us.


  • Registered Users Posts: 715 ✭✭✭Carol25


    Gonzo wrote: »
    a few cold runs this morning, this one is the pick of the bunch, unfortunately very little chance of this happening. If it did happen it would bring plenty of snow showers to Leinster with -10 uppers over the country. One can only dream.

    GFSP09EU06_336_1.png

    GFSP09EU06_336_2.png

    The majority of the runs keep the Atlantic going while others have high pressure sitting around us.

    The only positive about the Atlantic being dominant for winter and maybe early spring is perhaps we’ll get nice late spring or summer weather...hard to know with Mother Nature though!


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,370 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    This is a somewhat more useful evolution for coldies this evening :)

    gfs-0-156.png?18


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,651 ✭✭✭US2


    Carol25 wrote: »
    The only positive about the Atlantic being dominant for winter and maybe early spring is perhaps we’ll get nice late spring or summer weather...hard to know with Mother Nature though!

    Not the thread for this general debate but I'm fairly confident we get hot summers after cold winter/spring , definitely in my lifetime. 2010/2013/2018.

    No doubt sryan will prove me wrong


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,676 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    FI is starting to trend very wet again with high pressure looking less lightly with each run. high pressure staying more to our south allowing the westerlies to continue feeding in spells of rain over us. We finish up on the 7th of January with a very stormy looking scene with the Atlantic unleashing deep areas of low pressure over us. The Atlantic refusing to let go. We appear to have no ingredients for a cold and settled setup any time soon.

    GFSOPEU06_384_1.png


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,426 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    Gonzo wrote: »
    FI is starting to trend very wet again with high pressure looking less lightly with each run. high pressure staying more to our south allowing the westerlies to continue feeding in spells of rain over us. We finish up on the 7th of January with a very stormy looking scene with the Atlantic unleashing deep areas of low pressure over us. The Atlantic refusing to let go. We appear to have no ingredients for a cold and settled setup any time soon.

    GFSOPEU06_384_1.png

    I remember a couple of years ago the eagle did an interview,he was talking about a long run of very wet wether during a summer 96 I think I can be corrected on this, but in the interview he stated if the weather has been the same for so long it doesn't matter what the charts are trending you could bet your house that the weather will continue the same.
    That interview and what he said has always stuck in my mind and he always seems to be correct.


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