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April 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

2

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  • Registered Users Posts: 706 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Dublin Airport -1.9 yesterday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Here are the bonus question forecasts re-arranged in order of Cork temperatures. The sunshine forecasts are arranged visually with the higher amounts further out to the right.

    FORECASTER ____ Cork 4th max, sun


    waterways _______14.7 ______ 8.5

    Dasa29 _________ 14.0 _____ 7.0

    Jpmarn _________ 13.8 ___ 5.5

    CirrusBusiness ___ 13.7 ____ 6.5

    WesternStorm ___ 13.5 ____ 6.8

    Dacogawa _______13.4 ____ 6.2

    200motels ______ 13.4 __ 4.1

    Sunflower3 ______13.2 ___ 5.0

    Artane2002 _____ 13.1 __ 4.3

    sryanbruen ______13.1 __ 4.0

    Pauldry _________13.0 ______ 8.3

    Adam240610 ____12.9 ____ 6.0

    john mac _______12.7 _ 2.5


    ___ Con Sensus __12.7 ___ 5.0


    Eon1208 _______ 12.4 ___ 5.0

    Appledrop ______ 12.3 ___ 5.0

    Mr Stonewall ____ 12.3 _ 3.75

    DOCARCH ______ 12.1 ____ 6.3

    MrSkinner ______ 12.0 ___ 5.0

    Kindred Spirit ___ 12.0 __ 4.0


    ___ NormaL _____12.0 _ 3.5


    M.T. Cranium ____ 11.8 __ 4.8

    Tae laidir _______ 11.8 __ 3.9

    Gonzo __________11.5 _2.3

    Joe Public _______11.4 __ 4.2

    Bsal ____________ 9.0 _ 3.0

    Danno __________ 8.4 ___ 5.2

    ____________________________________

    This should make it easier to score the bonus results on Monday.

    Would anyone revise if they could? I would go a bit warmer maybe 13.5.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,744 ✭✭✭appledrop


    M.T yeah I'd also go warmer I'd agree with 13 5.

    Hoping I'll do alright with 5 hours of sunshine though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 706 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Cork 14deg at 16.00


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Cork 14.3c Max and quite a sunny day bar one or two hours and maybe an hour in morning and evening


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The temperature portion can be scored now, if that's all true (and it looks right).

    Groups of four (excluding Con Sensus and Normal) will get six, five etc points, one group (two points) will have five people since there's a tie at the last of its cohort.

    Will post the actual numbers tomorrow when we can confirm that sunshine hours were as high as they appear from the hourlies, in which case the same logic will apply, four highest forecasts getting the six points. Gonzo won't be further penalized after late penalty, as his punt went a bit low to require a trim.

    The four highest sunshine forecasts go to waterways (8.3), Pauldry (8.0), dasa29 (7.0) and Western Storm (6.5). Waterways would need the result to be 7.3 hours to stay in this top scoring group, Pauldry okay down to 7.2. So I'm not entirely sure the four high forecasts are the four closest, but it could be the case.

    The bonus is being scored out of (6+6) to make superbonus points automatic, and if sunshine is high enough, waterways and dasa29 will total 12, Western Storm 11 and Cirrus Business either 11 or 12.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Cork Max 14.3°C sun 11.4 hours


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    So, converting the forecast table into a scoring table ...

    FORECASTER ___ temp _ sun _ total points

    waterways _______6 ___ 6 ____ 12

    Dasa29 _________ 6 ___ 6 ____ 12

    CirrusBusiness ___ 6 ___ 5 ____ 11

    WesternStorm ___ 5 ___ 6 ____ 11

    Jpmarn _________6 ___ 4 ____ 10

    Dacogawa ______ 5 ___ 5 ____ 10

    Pauldry _________4 ___ 6 ____ 10

    Adam240610 ____4 ___ 5 _____ 9

    Sunflower3 ______5 ___ 4 _____ 9

    200motels ______ 5 ___ 3 _____ 8

    Artane2002 _____ 4 ___ 3 _____ 7

    Eon1208 _______ 3 ___ 4 _____ 7

    Appledrop ______ 3 ___ 4 _____ 7

    DOCARCH ______ 2 ___ 5 _____ 7


    ___ Con Sensus __3 ___ 4 _____ 7


    MrSkinner ______ 2 ___ 4 _____ 6

    sryanbruen ______4 ___ 2 _____ 6

    Mr Stonewall ____ 3 ___ 2 _____ 5

    M.T. Cranium ____ 2 ___ 3 _____ 5

    Danno __________1 ___ 4 _____ 5

    Tae laidir _______ 2 ___ 2 _____ 4

    Joe Public _______1 ___ 3 _____ 4

    john mac _______3 ___ 1 _____ 4

    Kindred Spirit ___ 2 ___ 2 _____ 4


    ___ NormaL _____2 ___ 2 _____ 4


    Gonzo __________1 ___ 1 _____ 2

    Bsal ___________ 1 ___ 1 _____ 2

    ____________________________________

    The warmest and sunniest forecasts scored best, congrats to waterways and dasa29.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,744 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Thanks M.T not too bad, I thought I would get about 2 points!

    I'm the glad the people of Cork got a much sunnier and warm Easter Sunday than was initially predicted!


  • Registered Users Posts: 706 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Cold front arrived later than I expected. Great bonus question.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,744 ✭✭✭appledrop


    New min -3.6 at Casement on 5th.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Tae laidir wrote: »
    Cold front arrived later than I expected. Great bonus question.

    I based my guess on the various forecasts that were around a few days beforehand. Generally anything from 12 to 14°c were quoted for Cork. I anticipate the early part of the day would be sunny and it would cloud up during the afternoon and early evening. With over 11hours of Sun it must be almost wall to wall sunshine. Forecasts are never 100% accurate.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After the first week ...

    IMT was 6.1 which is 2.0 below normal.

    MAX 21.2 and MIN -3.6.

    PRC only 17% of normal.

    SUN was 163% of normal (976/600).

    Bonus scoring already settled (above).


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    A new MIN likely set with numerous reports of -4 early today. Any official numbers available yet?


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    -4.7c in Dublin Airport new min

    Will tonight beat it? Itl be close


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Currently -3c in Casement n -4c in Baltinglass but a few hours yet. -5c possible in Casement. Forgot maybe Mt Dillon has won the lowest temp yet. Was -3c there last night at midnight


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Only Casement got as low as -4 on hourlies last night, so probably no new MIN.

    The IMT after the 10th was 5.9, est 5.7 after today. The IMT for the 10th was only 2.9 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Apparently Casement hit -4.7 to tie the MIN we had the previous night.

    It has been cold here also, a bit of ice and snow returned on Saturday and it lasted right through the weekend in shady spots, despite highs around 5 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After two weeks ...

    The IMT on 5.8 after a cold second week, average 5.7 (2.8 below normal).

    MAX 21.2 and MIN -4.7

    PRC still very low, 31% with this past week at 46% of normal.

    SUN remains high at 154% with this past week 144% (862/600).

    If all aspects returned to normal for the period of today to end of month (and not saying they will) the outcomes would be about like this:

    7.0 ___ 21.2 ____ --4.7 ____ 060 ____ 120


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After three weeks ...

    IMT on 6.8, third week 8.7 C just 0.3 below normal.

    MAX 21.2, MIN -4.7

    PRC still low at 38% of normal, this past week 51% (somewhat closer to normal in west).

    SUN has come down to 131% with this past week 84% (502/600).


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  • Registered Users Posts: 706 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    pauldry wrote: »
    Weird thing is that could be the high for the month. No warm weather for next 10 days anyways

    Yes, looks like the warmest day was the 1st April. No joking!


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After four weeks ...

    IMT 7.5 after a week of near normal 9.5 average, and will likely finish on 7.4.

    MAX 21.2 MIN -4.7

    PRC down to 32% of normal with this past week only 12% of normal from showers yesterday (dry before that). PRC may finish around 35%. Scoring assistance has been called in. None of us went below 70%.

    SUN is back up to 144% of normal after a very bright week at 182% of normal (1090/600). This will likely finish around 140%, more scoring assistance on the way. However, your boost will likely be cut in half as Danno predicted 140% (rule: minimum progression applied to scoring is 50% when any raw score is within two of maximum for category).

    Bonus was of course already settled back around the 5th.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Sunshine could finish higher than 144% MT.

    The last 2 days very sunny (out West anyways)


  • Registered Users Posts: 706 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Should be a pleasurable one for you to score MT.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Low hanging fruit basically.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    pauldry wrote: »
    Sunshine could finish higher than 144% MT.

    The last 2 days very sunny (out West anyways)

    Any outcome from 128 to 152 per cent will have the same effect on the scoring, as that's the range for Danno to score at least 8/10 on his 140% forecast. Once that's confirmed, the rest of the scoring will be a half-shot of minimum progression. Danno has 10/10 for sure, I would say, can't be as certain what anyone else will score.

    Oh also, I gather Monday is a bank holiday, that means there won't be a Monthly Summary until Wed 5th, which is my only chance to verify the actual sunshine totals unless I spend a day adding them all up myself. My weekly estimates always seem a bit off the mark for some reason, in contrast to the other parameters which usually work out as we thought from tracking them.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The IMT did finish on 7.4, and PRC appears to be around 33% of normal. SUN will be up around 150%, the last two days had 85 hours at the six locations, at least 50% above normal so the previous 144% will edge up further.

    A MIN of -2.8 at Dublin on 30th gave the existing MIN a bit of a surprise but not that much.

    Could probably score the contest now but will get at it later today.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Provisional scoring for April 2021


    to be confirmed from Monthly Summary due on 5th of May.


    FORECASTER ___ (pen) __ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN __ Bonus _ Totals


    M.T. Cranium __________ 24 _ 16 _ 15 _ 13 _ 06 ____ 5 ____ 79

    200motels _____________20 _ 18 _ 16 _ 10 _ 03 ____ 8 ____ 75

    MrSkinner _____________20 _ 09 _ 15 _ 15 _ 05 ____ 6 ____ 70

    sryanbruen ____________21 _ 12 _ 15 _ 11 _ 04 ____ 6 ____ 69

    Mr Stonewall ___________10 _ 15 _ 19 _ 15 _ 04 ____ 5 ____ 68

    CirrusBusiness _________ 22 _ 07 _ 12 _ 13 _ 02 ___ 11 ____ 67


    ____ Con Sensus _______ 17 _ 16 _ 11 _ 11 _ 05 ____ 7 ____ 67


    Sunflower3 ____________ 17 _ 07 _ 18 _ 11 _ 04 ____ 9 ____ 66

    Danno ________________10 _ 13 _ 13 _ 14 _ 10 ____ 5 ____ 65

    Adam240610 __________ 18 _ 10 _ 12 _ 11 _ 05 ____ 9 ____ 65

    Jpmarn _______________25 _ 03 _ 11 _ 10 _ 05 ___ 10 ____ 64

    Pauldry _______________17 _ 11 _ 07 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 10 ____ 64

    Artane2002 ____________13 _ 16 _ 18 _ 04 _ 03 ____ 7 ____ 61

    Dacogawa _____________17 _ 17 _ 04 _ 09 _ 04 ___ 10 ____ 61

    Joe Public _____________ 17 _ 10 _ 17 _ 08 _ 02 ____ 4 ____ 58

    Eon1208 _____ (-1) _____09 _ 18 _ 06 _ 12 _ 07 ____ 7 _59-1=58

    DOCARCH _____________20 _ 10 _ 02 _ 10 _ 05 ____ 7 ____ 54

    Appledrop _____________17 _ 18 _ 00 _ 09 _ 01 ____ 7 ____ 52

    Bsal __________________13 _ 18 _ 00 _ 10 _ 05 ____ 2 ____ 48


    ____ NormaL ___________15 _ 13 _ 05 _ 08 _ 03 ____ 4 ____ 48


    Dasa29 _______________ 14 _ 00 _ 03 _ 08 _ 05 ___ 12 ____ 42

    waterways ______ (-2) __ 16 _ 00 _ 00 _ 11 _ 04 ___ 12 _43-2=41

    Gonzo ____ (-10) _______22 _ 01 _ 09 _ 11 _ 05 ____ 2 _50-10=40

    Tae laidir ______________13 _ 14 _ 00 _ 06 _ 02 ____ 4 ____ 39

    john mac ______________13 _ 07 _ 00 _ 07 _ 03 ____ 4 ____ 34

    WesternStorm __________00 _ 00 _ 00 _ 14 _ 08 ___ 11 ____ 33

    Kindred Spirit ____ (-3) __ 14 _ 00 _ 03 _ 05 _ 04 ____ 4 _30-3=27


    Minimum progression scoring applied to PRC and SUN (scored from 135% but Danno given 10/10, has same effect as the reduced boost I mentioned earlier). PRC was given a generous spread because of so many ties and small differentials, thought it best to equalize the scoring a bit given that we were all quite a distance out from 33% and nobody went really high.


    (actual forecasts)


    FORECASTER ___ (pen) __ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Cork 4th max, sun

    WesternStorm __________ 9.9 _ 23.2 _ -0.5 _ 075 _ 124 ___ 13.5 _ 6.8

    Eon1208 _____ (-1) _____ 9.0 _ 21.0 _ -3.3 _ 088 _ 120 ___ 12.4 _ 5.0

    Danno ________________ 8.9 _ 21.9 _ -5.4 _ 075 _ 140 ____ 8.4 _ 5.2

    Mr Stonewall ___________ 8.9 _ 20.7 _ -4.8 _ 073 _ 105 ___ 12.3 _ 3.75

    john mac ______________ 8.6 _ 22.5 _ -2.6 _ 105 _ 102 ___ 12.7 _ 2.5

    Bsal __________________ 8.6 _ 21.0 _ -2.5 _ 094 _ 110 ____ 9.0 _ 3.0

    Artane2002 ____________ 8.6 _ 20.8 _ -4.5 _ 115 _ 102 ___ 13.1 _ 4.3

    Tae laidir ______________ 8.6 _ 20.6 _ -2.5 _ 108 _ 093 ___ 11.8 _ 3.9

    Kindred Spirit ____ (-3) __ 8.5 _ 19.2 _ -3.0 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 12.0 _ 4.0

    Dasa29 _______________ 8.5 _ 18.5 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 14.0 _ 7.0


    ____ NormaL ___________8.4 _ 20.5 _ -3.2 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 12.0 _ 3.5


    waterways ______ (-2) __ 8.3 _ 24.5 _ -2.7 _ 090 _ 107 ___ 14.7 _ 8.5

    Sunflower3 ____________ 8.2 _ 22.5 _ -4.5 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 13.2 _ 5.0


    ____ Con Sensus _______ 8.2 _ 20.8 _ -3.8 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 12.7 _ 5.0


    Joe Public _____________ 8.2 _ 22.2 _ -4.4 _ 099 _ 093 ___ 11.4 _ 4.2

    Dacogawa _____________ 8.2 _ 21.5 _ -3.1 _ 095 _ 106 ___ 13.4 _ 6.2

    Appledrop _____________ 8.2 _ 21.0 _ -2.5 _ 095 _ 090 ___ 12.3 _ 5.0

    Pauldry _______________ 8.2 _ 20.3 _ -3.4 _ 081 _ 120 ___ 13.0 _ 8.3

    Adam240610 ___________8.1 _ 20.2 _ -3.9 _ 090 _ 111 ___ 12.9 _ 6.0

    200motels _____________7.9 _ 21.0 _ -4.3 _ 091 _ 102 ___ 13.4 _ 4.1

    DOCARCH _____________ 7.9 _ 20.2 _ -2.9 _ 092 _ 112 ___ 12.1 _ 6.3

    MrSkinner _____________ 7.9 _ 20.1 _ -4.2 _ 072 _ 112 ___ 12.0 _ 5.0

    sryanbruen ____________ 7.8 _ 20.4 _ -4.2 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 13.1 _ 4.0

    Gonzo ____ (-10) _______ 7.7 _ 23.1 _ -5.8 _ 088 _ 112 ___ 11.5 _ 2.3

    CirrusBusiness __________7.7 _ 19.9 _ -3.9 _ 080 _ 095 ___ 13.7 _ 6.5

    M.T. Cranium ___________7.5 _ 20.8 _ -5.2 _ 080 _ 115 ___ 11.8 _ 4.8

    Jpmarn _______________ 7.4 _ 19.5 _ -3.8 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 13.8 _ 5.5


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,744 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Thanks M.T, I was way off this month.

    Thankfully the Max saved me and IMT not too bad but the rest is a write off!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Updated annual scoring Jan to Apr 2021

    Subject to adjustments if April scoring not confirmed

    .. Table is now ordered by best 3/4 with ranks, but total is still ranked at left side of the table (prev is your rank last month).



    rank _ FORECASTER ________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _ TOTAL _ (prev) ____ best 3/4 __ rank


    _02t__ sryanbruen __________75 _ 76 _ 47 _ 69 __ 267 ____ 08 ________ 220 ____ 01

    _05 __ Artane2002 _________ 67 _ 48 _ 87 _ 61 __ 263 ____ 06 ________ 215 ____ 02

    _07 __ sunflower3 __________76 _ 37 _ 72 _ 66 __ 251 ____ 12 ________ 214 ____ 03


    (t01)_____ Con Sensus ______65 _ 59 _ 81 _ 67 __ 272 ____(t05)________213 ____(04)


    _01 __ JPmarn _____________63 _ 76 _ 69 _ 64 __ 272 ____ 01 ________ 209 ____ 04

    _04 __ MrSkinner __________ 58 _ 63 _ 75 _ 70 __ 266 ____ 10 ________ 208 ____ 05

    _12 __ Kindred Spirit ________58 _ 82 _ 67 _ 27 __ 234 ____ 02 ________ 207 ____t06

    _02t__ dacogawa ___________79 _ 60 _ 67 _ 61 __ 267 ____ t03________ 207 ____t06

    _06 __ Appledrop ___________56 _ 75 _ 75 _ 52 __ 258 ____ t03________ 206 ____ 08

    _10 __ tae laidir ____________67 _ 64 _ 74 _ 39 __ 244 ____ 05 ________ 205 ____ 09

    _20 __ Gonzo ______________81 _ 20 _ 83 _ 40 __ 224 ____ 13 ________ 204 ____ 10

    t 13 __ Western Storm _______45 _ 81 _ 73 _ 33 __ 232 ____ 07 ________ 199 ____ 11

    _15 __ john mac ___________ 62 _ 68 _ 67 _ 34 __ 231 ____ 09 ________ 197 ____ 12

    _08 __ eon1208 ___________ 53 _ 76 _ 62 _ 58 __ 249 ____ 11 ________ 196 ____ 13

    _11 __ Pauldry ____________ 58 _ 47 _ 72 _ 64 __ 241 ____ 15 ________ 194 ____ 14

    t 16 __ Cirrus Business ______35 _ 53 _ 73 _ 67 __ 228 ____ t19________ 193 ____ 15


    (t11) __ __ NormaL ________ 59 _ 76 _ 58 _ 48 __ 241 ____(11)________193 ____(t15)


    t 13 __ Mr stonewall ________ 65 _ 59 _ 40 _ 68 __ 232 ____t17________ 192 ____ 16

    _09 __ Adam240610 ________58 _ 68 _ 54 _ 65 __ 245 ____ 14 ________ 191 ____t17

    t 16 __ M.T. Cranium _______ 47 _ 37 _ 65 _ 79 __ 228 ____ 23 ________ 191 ____t17

    _19 __ 200motels __________38 _ 65 _ 47 _ 75 __ 225 ____ 22 ________ 187 ____ 19

    t 16 __ DOCARCH __________54 _ 50 _ 70 _ 54 __ 228 ____ 16 ________ 178 ____ 20

    _21 __ Bsal _______________41 _ 50 _ 73 _ 48 __ 212 ____ t17________ 171 ____ 21

    _25 __ funsterdelux ________ 59 _ 40 _ 62 _ --- __ 161 ____ t19________161 ____ 22

    t 23 __ waterways __________55 _ 62 _ 28 _ 41 __ 186 ____ 25 ________ 158 ____ 23

    _21 __ dasa29 ____________ 48 _ 43 _ 65 _ 42 __ 198 ____ 21 ________ 156 ____ 24

    _26 __ SleetandSnow _______30 _ 41 _ 77 _ --- __ 148 ____ 24 ________ 148 ____ 25

    t 23 __ Joe Public __________ 41 _ 42 _ 45 _ 58 __ 186 ____ 26 ________ 145 ____ 26

    _27 __ Danno _____________38 _ 10 _ 25 _ 65 __ 138 ____ 28 ________ 128 ____ 27

    _28 __ sdanseo ___________ 51 _ --- _ 52 _ --- __ 103 ____ 27

    _29 __ BLIZZARD7 _________10 _ 21 _ 34 _ --- ___ 65 ____ 29 ________ 065 ____ 28

    _30 __ Bazlers ____________ 34 _ ---_ --- _ --- ___ 34 ____ 30

    _31 __ Tazio ______________--- _ 26 _ --- _ --- ___26 ____ 31

    ================================================


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