May 2019 Boards weather forecast contest

After one week ...

IMT on 8.3, which is 2.0 below normal.

MIN --3.1 (MAX not in view yet)

PRC only 22% by end of 7th, probably about 50% now.

SUN 113% of normal (677/600).

Thanks for keeping an eye on data, I am in the middle of a move and will be off line for a couple of days starting today. Hoping to post the second week stats before that happens. Should be up and running by Friday if all goes well.

Thanks, the move is complete and the internet service has resumed, but I wasn't able to catch any data yesterday so ...

IMT after 15 days is 9.2 C. The past week (9th to 15th) averaged 10.4 which is 0.5 below normal.

MAX 21.9 and MIN -3.1.

PRC is estimated to be 40% of normal through fifteen days. The past week (9th to 15th) averaged about 26% of normal. The 8th which is in neither week that I reported on was relatively wet and that got the average up higher than either the first week (22%) or the 9th to 15th (26%).

SUN is estimated to be at 132% of normal. This past week (9th to 15th) was very sunny at 168.5% (1011/600). The 8th was relatively cloudy (20% of normal mostly at Belmullet) so the weighted average of first week at 113%, 9th to 15th at 168.5% and the intervening day at 20% gives 132% of normal.

Markree reported 18.0 mm rain on Thursday 16th.

After 22 days then ...

IMT on 10.0 C. The past week 11.5 C, bang on normal for the period.

MAX and MIN likely unchanged from last report (21.9 and -3.1).

PRC has fallen to 30% of normal, this past seven days only about 17% of normal. Our lowest forecasts were in the mid-80s and our consensus 105%. Hmm.

SUN is around 120% of normal with this past week somewhat below the average at 93% (560/600).

13.7 mm at Markree was Monday's top amount. Not quite the highest for the month.

Perhaps today or tomorrow will set the mark.

June forecast contest will be posted Thursday morning around 0500h I hope. On the road, need to think up a bonus question.

Provisional scoring for May 2019

FORECASTER __________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___Max precip ____ TOTAL

Estimated values _______ 11.0_21.9_-3.1_060_097___26.8 Thurs


sryanbruen ____________21 _ 18*_ 22^_ 08*_ 09 ___ 6+2 _______ 86


DOCARCH _____________19 _ 10*_ 11*_ 12*_ 07 ___ 5+3 _______ 67

JCXBXC _______________19 _ 08*_ 14*_ 10*_ 07 ___ 7+1 _______ 66

200motels ____________ 19 _ 17*_ 02*_ 11*_ 07 ___ 7+2+1 _____ 66

Artane2002 ___________ 20 _ 12*_ 07*_ 10*_ 07 ___ 7+2+1 _____ 66

mickger844posts _______ 22 _ 17*_ 03*_ 12*_ 07 ___ 3+1 _______ 65

Dasa29 _______________25 _ 14*_ 05*_ 05*_ 09 ___ 3+1 _______ 62

Rameire ______________ 18 _ 15*__00 _ 08*_ 10 ___ 7+2+1 _____61

Sunflower3 ____________17 _ 12*_ 01*_ 13*_ 09 ___ 7+1 _______ 60

Joe Public _____________22 _ 02*_ 17*_ 06*_ 10 ___ 1+2 _______ 60

Adam240610 __________21 _ 13*__00 _ 10*_ 10 ___ 4+1 _______ 59

Tae laidir _____________17 _ 09*_ 01*_ 14*_ 07 ___ 7+2+1 _____ 58

Jpmarn ____ (-2) ______ 19 _ 17*_ 06*_ 05*_ 08 ___ 5+0 __ 60-2=58

YanSno ______________ 10 _ 19*_ 10*_ 02*_ 09 ___ 7+1 ________58


___ NormaL ___________ 24 _ 06*_ 05*_ 10*_ 09 ___ 3+1 _______ 58


M.T. Cranium __________ 23 _ 12*_ 09*__00 _ 09 ___ 1+3 _______ 57


___ Con Sensus ________20 _ 10*_ 04*_ 09*_ 08 ___ 6+0 _______ 57


Bsal _________________ 20 _ 08*_ 02*_ 13*_ 05 ___ 6+2 _______ 56

waterways ____________ 23 _ 01*_ 21^_ 02*_ 09 ___ 0+0 _______ 56

MrSkinner ____ (-1) ____ 16 _ 06*_ 08*_ 11*_ 08 ___ 7+0 __ 56-1= 55

Pauldry _______________20 _ 10*_ 01*_ 08*_ 10 ___ 4+0 _______ 53

Kindred Spirit __________19 _ 06*__00 _ 08*_ 06 ___ 7+2+1 _____ 49

Rikand _______________ 15 _ 06*_ 03*_ 12*_ 05 ___ 7+0 _______ 48

Dacogawa _____________20 _ 02*_ 02*_ 06*_ 08 ___ 1+2 _______ 41

john mac _____________ 14 _ 01*_ 04*_ 09*_ 07 ___ 3+1 _______ 39

BLIZZARD7__ (-10) _____12 _ 06*_ 12*_ 05*_ 06 ___ 1+0 __42-10=32

____________________________________________________________

Notes:

All estimated values may change slightly after review of final data in MS. IMT was 10.94 after 30 days, likely to edge up into 11.0 range.

Complete minimum progression scoring for MAX and PRC

Partial minimum progression for MIN, boosts limited to half by high scores including 20/20 for sryanbruen (half points rounded up). ...
^ ... for scoring fairness, have awarded PRC performance points as 2 superbonus points to sryanbruen and 1 to waterways.

Correct day for max rainfall Thursday 30th (guessed by DOCARCH and MTC), Friday 31st did not quite overtake (subject to review).

... neither of those were close on amounts, so no superbonus of 2 points ... some got 1 extra for a close guess on amount and one day off.

Scoring was relatively subdued other than sryanbruen who had a good handle on the outcome.

____________________________________________________________________________________


actual forecasts below ...


FORECASTER __________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max precip (mm), day of week


john mac _____________ 12.1 _ 26.3 _ -0.9 _ 103 _ 110 ___ 42.0 _ Saturday

Rikand _______________ 12.0 _ 25.0 __ 0.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 25.0 _ Sunday

MrSkinner ____ (-1) ____ 11.9 _ 25.0 _ -1.4 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 29.0 _ Monday

Tae laidir _____________ 11.8 _ 24.6 _ -0.3 _ 087 _ 112 ___ 26.5 _ Wednesday

Sunflower3 ____________11.8 _ 24.0 _+0.2 _ 088 _ 102 ___ 25.0 _ Tuesday

Rameire ______________ 11.7 _ 23.4 _+0.5 _ 107 _ 099 ___ 23.0 _ Wednesday

Kindred Spirit __________11.6 _ 25.0 _+0.5 _ 110 _ 115 ___ 30.0 _ Wednesday

JCXBXC _______________11.6 _ 24.9 _ -2.2 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 22.0 _ Saturday

DOCARCH _____________11.6 _ 24.2 _ -1.8 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 14.2 _ Thursday

200motels ____________ 11.6 _ 23.0 _ -0.5 _ 092 _ 110 ___ 24.0 _ Friday

Dacogawa ____________ 11.5 _ 25.6 _ -0.5 _ 119 _ 105 ___ 49.0 _ Wednesday

Bsal _________________ 11.5 _ 24.5 _ -0.5 _ 088 _ 120 ___ 32.0 _ Wednesday


___ Con Sensus ________11.5 _ 24.2 _ -0.9 _ 105 _ 105 ___ 32.0 _ (see notes)


Pauldry _______________11.5 _ 24.2 _+0.2 _ 110 _ 097 ___ 39.0 _ Monday

Artane2002 ___________ 11.5 _ 24.0 _ -1.3 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 23.0 _ Friday

Adam240610 __________11.4 _ 23.8 _+1.1 _ 100 _ 097 ___ 38.0 _ Tuesday

Joe Public _____________11.3 _ 25.6 _ -2.7 _ 119 _ 096 ___ 47.2 _ Friday

waterways ____________ 11.2 _ 26.0 _ -3.0 _ 130 _ 088 ___ 50.0 _ Monday


___ NormaL ___________ 11.1 _ 25.0 _ -1.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 40.0 _ (scores 1/3)


Dasa29 ______________ 11.0 _ 23.5 _ -1.0 _ 120 _ 100 ___ 40.0 _ Tuesday

M.T. Cranium __________10.8 _ 24.0 _ -1.5 _ 140 _ 090 ___ 45.0 _ Thursday

mickger844posts _______10.7 _ 23.0 _ -0.5 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 41.0 _ Tuesday

sryanbruen ___________ 10.6 _ 22.8 _ -3.1 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 32.0 _ Friday

Jpmarn ____ (-2) ______ 10.4 _ 23.0 _ -1.2 _ 120 _ 105 ___ 35.0 _ Sunday

BLIZZARD7__ (-10) _____ 9.7 _ 25.0 _ -4.3 _ 120 _ 115 ___ 47.0 _ Monday

YanSno _______________ 9.5 _ 22.5 _ -4.5 _ 130 _ 090 ___ 22.5 _ Saturday

____________________________________________________________

Con Sensus is median of 24 forecasts.

Choice of day was 5 for Wed (con will score 3/3), 4 for Monday, Tuesday, or Friday (con will score 2/3), 3 for Saturday (con will score 1/3) and 2 for Sunday or Thursday (con will score zero). Normal will score 1/3 for any outcome.

Very slight adjustments to provisional scoring will take place as I found the following final stats ...

IMT was 11.0 as expected.

PRC appears closer to 60% than 50% but that will not change any scores.

SUN was a bit more generous on 30th and 31st than I had estimated, 35% instead of what I was expecting would be close to zero, as the sun managed some play time in the south. That pushes the monthly estimate up to 97%. If your forecast was a multiple of 5 as most are, then your score won't change. One or two others might.

All of the scoring will be revisited on the 5th (I expect) as I notice that the 3rd is a bank holiday. I should have guessed that from the weather.

All scoring above is now declared "final" as the MS confirms all estimated values used for May. Sunshine worked out to the same percentage as used, Cork came in most above average and the two Dublin area stations below average, the other three being close to normal values.

May is the month with the highest average amount of sunshine, six hours a day. Until about the 24th it was running at a pace of seven hours a day but fell back considerably with the cloudy spell after that date.

So congrats to sryanbruen who moved up into the large chase pack behind the leaders with a score of 86 in a month where average scoring was rather low (nobody else broke 70). And congrats to tae laidir who has opened up a fairly large lead in the annual contest and is doing very well in the four seasons as well.