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Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 23 August, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 23 to 29 August 2020

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values.
    -- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal.
    -- Sunshine will average only around 50 per cent of normal.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few showers, isolated thunderstorms, and a few sunny breaks mainly in the midlands, inland southeast. Highs only 15 to 18 C.

    TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast with a few showers, lows near 8 C.

    MONDAY will be cloudy with sunny breaks, showers rather isolated until rain arrives late in the day with southeast to east winds becoming strong by evening. Highs 17 to 19 C.

    MONDAY NIGHT into TUESDAY, a well-organized low will track across Ireland in the overnight hours, with widespread rainfalls of 20 to 40 mm. Winds for most of the country will be moderate easterly followed by moderate northwesterly once the low passes, but near the south coast some stronger southwest winds could develop with gusts to around 110 km/hr possible there. Temperatures will be steady near 16 C south, 13 C north during this event and well into the day on Tuesday, then could rise slightly with any sunshine by Tuesday afternoon.

    WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 19 C.

    THURSDAY and FRIDAY may bring some light rain as weak low pressure forms off the southwest coast and tracks east; this will lead to cool, overcast and drizzly weather with highs only around 15 C.

    Then the following weekend seems likely to be more settled but cool for late August with overnight lows possibly falling to the 3-7 C range, and daytime highs 12 to 16 C.

    The first part of September looks slightly warmer again although not much above average for time of year.

    My local weather on Saturday was mainly sunny with patchy high cloud, and it was somewhat cooler than most of the previous week, with highs around 23 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 24 August, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 24 to 30 Aug 2020

    -- Temperatures will average 2 deg below normal values.
    -- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent above normal.
    -- Sunshine will average no better than 50 per cent although towards the end of the interval it will get brighter.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will see some sunny breaks through layers of higher cloud, with only a few isolated showers before rain arrives late afternoon to evening in parts of Munster. Highs 16 to 19 C.

    TONIGHT will be windy and wet, with 15-30 mm rainfalls possible by morning, heaviest in west Munster. The northern half of the country will see easterly winds most of the night, 40 to 70 km/hr. The south coast will see a period of rather strong south winds, then a brief calmer interval, with strong westerlies arriving about daybreak there. Lows 11 to 13 C.

    TUESDAY will find the low tracking across central counties. There will be a fairly prolonged interval of lighter winds near the low centre, with westerly gales of 80-120 km/hr spreading throughout the south coastal counties, and moderate easterly winds further north. Rain will become more showery but some heavy showers and even one or two thunderstorms are possible; rainfall totals including the earlier overnight interval will reach 30-50 mm. Some flooding may result especially in parts of Munster and south/west Connacht already soaked from previous rains. Highs around 17 C. By afternoon and evening more of the country will be affected by the strong westerly winds trailing the low which by then will be over north-central England.

    WEDNESDAY will be a more settled day with isolated showers and much lighter winds, lows near 7 C and highs near 17 C.

    THURSDAY and FRIDAY will feel the effects of more low pressure, this time taking a southerly track leaving all regions in cool air with east winds, and light to moderate rainfalls of 10-20 mm. Temperatures will be fairly steady through this period and only around 13 to 16 C.

    By the WEEKEND quite cool autumnal weather with light northerly winds may bring in enough clear skies to give an outside chance of ground frost developing in a few central county locations; lows generally 3-7 C and highs only about 13-16 C.

    Then for early September, expect a return to somewhat more normal temperatures but still rather unsettled at times with frequent frontal passages producing wind and rain.

    My local weather on Sunday was sunny and pleasant with highs near 25 C, currently clear and 14 C approaching midnight here. In the eastern Gulf of Mexico, Marco is a strong tropical storm that was earlier a marginal hurricane, and it will eventually make a landfall near New Orleans. Laura is a tropical storm battling the high terrain of Cuba, but when Laura moves into the Gulf, it could strengthen to the first major hurricane of 2020 (and fourth out of the thirteen named storms, currently the count is 13/3/0). The most likely region for Laura's eventual landfall appears to be near the Texas-Louisiana border east of Galveston and west of Lake Charles. But it could be anywhere in Louisiana or Texas given the uncertainty in current forecast models.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 25 August, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS remain similar to yesterday's forecast except that about half the expected totals, or more, have fallen overnight, so from now on rainfall will be closer to normal values although there's still a fair amount to come in some places. It will also be quite cool for time of year, and cloudy much of the time until the weekend.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will become very windy in many areas, starting quite soon in western counties, mid-morning in the midlands, and mid-day on the east coast. As storm "Francis" tracks from its current location near Galway to the north Irish Sea this afternoon, strong winds will wrap around the circulation but in the meantime an extensive area of slack pressure gradients crossing the country is resulting in a temporary decrease in wind speeds for many places. That pause should end rather suddenly when the squally showers feeding in behind the low race through the midlands towards Leinster. Some squally thunderstorms are also possible in the inland south and southeast as a cold front develops this morning; this feature may go on to produce severe weather in Wales and England later. Temperatures during this morning pause may reach 19-20 C then fall off to 15-16 C when the Atlantic air arrives. Once that happens, expect intervals of very blustery west winds 80-120 km/hr to develop, with bands of squally showers, wind-driven rain, and hail possible. Although west Munster has already seen torrential downpours, there may be a few more heavy showers to exacerbate severe flooding underway in a few places. The northern third of the country and all of Northern Ireland, meanwhile, will remain in east to northeast winds and periods of rain, with temperatures steady around 14 C. Some further rainfalls of 15-25 mm are possible (many places have seen 20-40 already).

    TONIGHT the wind and rain should die out gradually although with a few blustery and wet intervals likely, lows will drop to about 9 C, with west to northwest winds 50-80 km/hr decreasing to 30-50 km/hr by morning.

    WEDNESDAY will become partly cloudy with just isolated showers, but a weak front may push through during the afternoon bringing 2-5 mm rainfalls to some parts of the west and north. Highs near 18 C.

    THURSDAY will become overcast with outbreaks of light rain and chilly east to northeast winds, lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C north, 17 C south.

    FRIDAY will see gradual clearing with rain dying out across the south, cool with lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

    The WEEKEND will be generally settled but cool for late August, overnight lows 3-7 C and daytime highs 13-16 C.

    MONDAY looks like it may turn quite unsettled again with wind and rain returning, highs near 16 C.

    My local weather saw increasing high cloud all day with a warm high of 28 C. Meanwhile, "Marco" has dissipated along the Gulf coast but "Laura" is leaving Cuba and entering a favourable environment for rapid development, and could become a major hurricane by Tuesday before slamming into the west Louisiana east Texas border area, possibly as a cat-3 hurricane by then, or at least a strong cat-2 (resembling Ike back in 2008 IIRC, powerful enough to do quite a bit of damage along a flat populated coastline).


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 26 August, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 26 Aug to 1 Sept 2020

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values.
    -- Rainfall will average near normal values.
    -- Sunshine will average about 75 per cent of normal.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be partly cloudy with some fairly generous sunny intervals this morning, increasing cloud by afternoon, with outbreaks of light rain in parts of the north and west. Rather cool with highs 14 to 17 C.

    TONIGHT will be overcast with light rain spreading into the south, showers further north, about 5 mm rain in some places, lows near 8 C.

    THURSDAY will be mainly cloudy with slight clearing from the north by afternoon and evening. Rain will be sporadic across the south and amounts only 2 to 5 mm. Rather cool with moderate northeast winds developing, highs 13 to 16 C.

    FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers, rather cool also with lows 5 to 8 C and highs 13 to 16 C.

    SATURDAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals, and cool, morning lows only 3 to 7 C, afternoon highs 14 to 17 C.

    SUNDAY will also be partly cloudy to sunny with increasing afternoon cloud, rain by evening or overnight. Lows about 3 to 7 C and highs 15 to 18 C.

    MONDAY will bring intervals of rain and moderate southwest winds, highs near 18 C.

    The outlook for next week is for some dry intervals around Tuesday and Wednesday then remnants of "Laura" may arrive in the eastern Atlantic, however the storm will have completely dissipated long before that and what reaches Ireland will be frontal systems spawned by the remnant low.

    My local weather on Tuesday was sunny with a few cloudy intervals and the high was around 25 C. Hurricane Laura is intensifying today in the central Gulf of Mexico and still taking aim on the Texas-Louisiana border region with an intensity of cat-3 predicted just before landfall. Remnants of this hurricane will curve northeast and affect the inland northeastern states with heavy rainfalls later this week, then the remnant low will move into the Atlantic by the weekend.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 27 August, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 27 Aug to 2 Sep 2020

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal.
    -- Rainfall will average near normal.
    -- Sunshine will average about 75 per cent of normal.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of rain, heavier in the south where 10-20 mm possible. Some embedded thunderstorms are possible too. Rather cool with highs 14 to 17 C.

    TONIGHT will be overcast with further light rain at times, lows near 8 C.

    FRIDAY will bring a gradual improvement as skies slowly clear from the north and west, but there could be some persistent residual showers in parts of the southeast. Quite cool with moderate northerly to northeasterly breezes of 30 to 50 km/hr, highs 13 to 16 C.

    SATURDAY will see a mixture of cloud and sunshine with isolated showers mainly near north coast. Moderate northerly breezes and cool, morning lows 4 to 7 C and afternoon highs 13 to 16 C.

    SUNDAY will also be partly cloudy but there could be longer sunny intervals for some, and a similar temperature range to Saturday, morning lows 3 to 6 C and afternoon highs 14 to 18 C.

    MONDAY will be overcast with showers or intervals of rain, highs near 18 C.

    The outlook for next week is generally rather unsettled with a gradual warming trend, highs could be into the low 20s by end of the week.

    My local weather was sunny and the high near 25 C on Wednesday. Hurricane Laura moved into southwest Louisiana in the past few hours as a cat-4 hurricane, but will steadily weaken moving further north. There is expected to be a damaging storm surge moving well inland across a very flat region that stays quite close to sea level for many miles inland, around Lake Charles. Remnants of the storm will join up with low pressure further north over the Great Lakes around Friday evening and the remnant storm will move into the Atlantic off New England by the weekend. Some remnants of this will be seen over the eastern Atlantic near Ireland by about Tuesday-Wednesday of next week but the main influence it may have for Ireland is to become part of the warming trend.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 28 August, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS remain similar to previous days -- cool, unsettled but not overly wet, and rather cloudy although improving from previous days.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be cool with north to northeast breezes of 30 to 50 km/hr. Two areas will be subject to bands of showers, sometimes rather heavy, feeding in from the Irish Sea into central and southeast Leinster, and also into Mayo and west Galway from the Atlantic. This second area may weaken earlier than the Irish Sea band, but in any case, central regions that begin to clear out will see some longer sunny intervals, and eventually this will begin to spread to previously unsettled areas as well. Highs only 14 to 17 C.

    TONIGHT there could be a few lingering showers in the east and the northwest, but it will become increasingly clear and chilly with lows falling to about 5 to 8 C. If you have clear skies, you'll have a good view of the Moon passing close to Jupiter in the southern skies around 10 p.m. to midnight.

    SATURDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers, as weaker bands redevelop in similar areas to today, but it will be dry in most places, if rather cool for time of year, highs only 14 to 17 C.

    SUNDAY will bring somewhat longer sunny intervals, a very chilly start to the day with lows 3 to 7 C and isolated frost possible, then highs 15 to 18 C with light winds.

    MONDAY will become mostly cloudy with occasional light rain, lows near 7 C and highs near 17 C.

    TUESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy, breezy and a little warmer, highs approaching 20 C. Rain is likely by evening and overnight, as energy associated with former hurricane Laura arrives -- this will have ceased to be a very active system long before it reaches the central Atlantic so no worries about any storm developing, although Wednesday could be a rather blustery day with occasional rain in the north, a slight warming trend further south.

    For about a week after that, it looks like further unsettled Atlantic dominated weather with somewhat warmer air trying to gain a foothold but finding it difficult due to the strong westerly flow favouring air masses of about 17 to 19 degrees from the central portions of the Atlantic. Eventually however, there is likely to be a warming trend in mid to late September, perhaps balancing against the seasonal downward trend at this time of year to produce similar temperatures start to finish.

    My local weather has been remarkably pleasant for most of August, and today was sunny with highs near 27 C. Clear skies this evening revealed that the Moon is approaching Jupiter in the sky, by the time we have another view tonight, it will be between Jupiter and Saturn for our view. What's left of Laura (not that much other than areas of moderate rain) is in southern Missouri and northern Arkansas heading for the Ohio valley. A low further north will scoop up what's left of this system today and drag it through the inland northeastern U.S. with 25-50 mm rainfalls widespread as a result.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 29 August, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for week of 29 Aug to 4 Sep 2020

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values.
    -- Rainfall will average about 75 per cent of normal.
    -- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers near some coasts mainly, in a cool but moderate northerly flow with winds 30-50 km/hr. Highs only 14 to 17 C.

    TONIGHT will become clear in many places, with some cloudy intervals near coasts. Lows inland will fall to about 3 to 6 C, staying closer to 8 C along coasts.

    SUNDAY will start out sunny with increasing afternoon and evening cloud, highs 15 to 18 C. Light winds for most places.

    MONDAY will be breezy and some showery light rain will bring 3-5 mm amounts, lows near 7 C and highs near 17 C.

    TUESDAY will be cloudy with moderate southwest winds, rain arriving late in the day, rather muggy with highs near 19 C.

    WEDNESDAY will be breezy with intervals of rain, about 5-10 mm expected, highs near 18 C.

    THURSDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers and highs near 18 C.

    In the further outlook, it may turn slightly cooler again around Friday but then a slight warming trend may follow, in general the month of September looks to be starting off with rather bland and near-normal conditions.

    My local weather was sunny and very warm with highs near 29 C. Currently clear and 17 C at around midnight, a good view of the moon sitting between (and slightly below) Jupiter and Saturn. If you have clear skies this evening, you'll see the Moon below Saturn by that time, brighter (than Saturn) Jupiter off to the right. Mars is becoming quite prominent these evenings rising shortly after sunset and high in the east-south-east by 11 p.m.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 30 August, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 30 Aug to 5 Sep 2020

    -- Temperatures will be 0.5 to 1.5 deg below normal values.
    -- Rainfall will be near normal with most of it coming around Tuesday night into Wednesday.
    -- Sunshine will be 75 to 100 per cent of normal.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be partly cloudy to sunny with increasing cloud by afternoon in western counties. Light winds, highs reaching about 18 C.

    TONIGHT will be quite cool again (4 to 8 C) where skies remain clear in the east, but cloud further west will keep readings higher there (8 to 12 C). Rain may arrive by morning on Atlantic coasts.

    MONDAY will bring mostly cloudy skies and occasional light rain, but only about 3 to 5 mm is expected, with moderate south to southwest winds, highs near 17 C.

    TUESDAY will be humid with occasional light rain, mostly cloudy and muggy, lows near 12 C and highs near 19 C.

    WEDNESDAY will bring a spell of blustery southwest winds 40-60 km/hr and moderate rainfalls of 10-20 mm, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C.

    THURSDAY will be partly cloudy with passing showers, breezy (westerly 40-60 km/hr) with lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C.

    FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with a few showers and cooler, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

    It will likely stay rather cool for Saturday (16 C) then warm up slightly for Sunday and Monday (near 20 C) with some sunny breaks each day, despite a fair amount of cloud, then a breezy and somewhat unsettled Atlantic regime will set in for about a week, with temperatures around 18 C.

    My local weather on Saturday featured more cloud than we've seen recently, but it stayed dry and cleared up again for the evening. The cloud held temperatures down to about 24 C although there was no real change in the air mass from previous warmer days.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 31 August, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS remain similar to yesterday's forecast. Here's the overview for the month of September -- expect a rather bland first half, followed by a more active and at times stormy second half of the month, leading to near or slightly above normal amounts of rain, and average temperatures about 0.5 to 1.0 deg above normal. Sunshine will likely be near average.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will remain partly cloudy in eastern counties with only isolated showers reaching the east, while the west becomes more overcast and sees some outbreaks of light rain (2-5 mm), highs generally 16 to 19 C.

    TONIGHT will be overcast with occasional light rain, lows near 12 C.

    TUESDAY will be overcast with a few breaks, rather muggy, with a few showers and highs 18 to 20 C. Winds south to southwest 40 to 60 km/hr.

    WEDNESDAY will begin rather wet and blustery with a frontal system bringing 10-20 mm rainfalls to many areas during the overnight hours, continuing into the morning in Leinster and east Ulster. Partial clearing will follow although a trailing wave could prolong the rain near the southeast coast. Winds southwest 50 to 70 km/hr, and temperatures steady 14 to 17 C.

    THURSDAY will become partly cloudy and breezy with passing showers, highs near 17 C.

    FRIDAY will be similar although with fewer showers in the mix, highs near 17 C.

    Higher pressure will build up over the weekend which may lead to more frequent sunny breaks and slightly higher daytime temperatures near 19 C although cooler at night (6-9 C). Fog may develop in some inland valleys.

    The pattern later into September begins to look quite active and unsettled by about mid-month and there could be tropical storm remnants involved at some point with strong winds.

    My local weather on Sunday was sunny during the morning, cloudy by afternoon, but dry with a high near 25 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 1 September, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 1 to 7 September are all close to normal values for this time of year, although rainfall may generally fall short by about 25%.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be cloudy with some sunny intervals spreading in from west to east, back to more overcast skies by afternoon however. A few light showers or patchy areas of drizzle will bring small amounts of rain. Rather warm and humid with highs 18 to 20 C.

    TONIGHT will see rain spreading across the country, some heavier bursts developing in midlands and Leinster, with 5 to 15 mm falling, lows near 12 C.

    WEDNESDAY will continue rather blustery and wet for a time then partial clearing will develop, with a few showers redeveloping later. Winds southwest 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs 17 to 19 C.

    THURSDAY will be partly cloudy with passing showers, breezy (westerly 50-70 km/hr) with lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C.

    FRIDAY will also be partly cloudy with showers, breezy, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

    SATURDAY will continue rather unsettled with west to northwest winds, lows near 7 C and highs near 16 C.

    SUNDAY and MONDAY will be more influenced by high pressure and it could turn a bit warmer with highs 18 to 21 C.

    Thereafter, a mobile Atlantic westerly flow will bring more intervals of rain and moderate winds later in the week. Temperatures will fall back to the mid teens.

    My local weather on Monday was rather autumnal, much cooler than we've had for months here, with a high of only about 16 C, partly cloudy skies and a few raindrops in moderate northwesterly winds. Not cool enough to turn on the heating but had to close the screen windows early.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 2 September, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 2 to 8 Sept 2020

    -- Temperatures will average about 1 deg above normal values.
    -- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values with much of that today.
    -- Sunshine will average near normal.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will continue to produce some heavy showers and possibly a brief thunderstorm across many parts of the country, heavier in the north, midlands and Leinster, 10-20 mm amounts generally. With any sunny breaks temperatures could edge up towards 19 or 20 C but in the rain it will be closer to 16 C. This is just a bit of the energy left over from former hurricane Laura that got swept into a non-severe low pressure system late last week. Some rather blustery intervals may develop with southwest to west winds 40 to 60 km/hr.

    TONIGHT will bring partly cloudy skies with only isolated showers, the winds dying down especially inland where some fog patches are likely by morning. Lows 10-12 C.

    THURSDAY will continue partly cloudy and unsettled with passing showers, moderate westerly breezes 40 to 60 km/hr, and highs near 17 C. Rainfalls 3-5 mm on average.

    FRIDAY and SATURDAY will be similar although the amounts of rain will likely decrease generally speaking, to amounts near 1 or 2 mm each day. Some sunshine will be in the mix and temperatures will continue in the same range, lows 8-10 C and highs 15-18 C.

    SUNDAY and MONDAY are looking a bit warmer as high pressure begins to circulate some subtropical air towards Ireland. It may not fully mix down through the lower layers but even so temperatures should manage to edge up towards 20 C. This interval may be more settled with few or isolated showers at most.

    Much of next week is also looking fairly pleasant for this time of year with some sunshine likely, not a lot of rainfall and temperatures a bit above average, near 20 C. Eventually, however, a more active pattern emerges and some windy and wet days are likely by about mid-month or so.

    My local weather on Tuesday was a little warmer but barely reached 20 C in partly cloudy conditions, but a slow warming trend is setting up here towards our long weekend.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 3 September, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 3 to 9 September 2020

    -- Temperatures will average near normal to 1.5 deg above normal.
    -- Rainfall will average 50 per cent of normal values.
    -- Sunshine will average near normal and possibly a bit above in some eastern and southern locations.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be partly cloudy with a few passing showers, generally not too heavy, 1-3 mm can be expected in some places. Moderate west-southwest winds, highs 16 to 19 C.

    TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with isolated showers, lows 7 to 10 C.

    FRIDAY will become mostly cloudy with a few showers, moderate westerly breezes, highs 16 to 19 C.

    SATURDAY will be partly cloudy with a few showers, moderate west to northwest winds, lows 6 to 9 C and highs about 15 to 18 C.

    SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with only isolated showers, longer sunny intervals than previous days, lows 5 to 8 C and highs 17 to 20 C.

    MONDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny at times then by afternoon increasing cloud, rain likely later in the day, at least in some parts of the north. Lows 6 to 9 C and highs 17 to 21 C.

    Most of next week will be fairly bland and near normal in temperatures, partly cloudy and breezy at times, in a sort of transitional zone between cooler air to the north and warm subtropical air to the south. Some influence from those may reach a few parts of the north and the south during the week, leading to a fairly strong temperature gradient at times. Then that pattern will rather quickly change to a more disturbed and unsettled, possibly even stormy interval after mid-month.

    My local weather on Wednesday was partly cloudy to overcast with temperatures reaching about 20 C. The tropical season remains busy, Hurricane Nana is making landfall in Belize (as a cat-1) and former T.S. Omar never amounted to much in the western Atlantic, but fifteen named storms by early September is ahead of even 2005, albeit the relative intensity of all but Laura have been slim to none in most cases. If this keeps up we may set a record for numbers of named storms but also the fraction of them that became hurricanes will be much lower than normal.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 4 September, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 4 to 10 September 2020

    -- Temperatures will average 1-2 deg above normal values.
    -- Rainfall will vary from 75% of normal in the north to 25% in the south.
    -- Sunshine will be near or slightly above normal values.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be partly cloudy with a few passing showers, one or two could be briefly heavy but most places will only see 1-3 mm of rain. Moderate westerly winds, highs 17 to 19 C.

    TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast with a few showers and lows near 9 or 10 C.

    SATURDAY will be mostly cloudy with showers or by afternoon, longer intervals of light rain or drizzle. Winds west to northwest about 30-50 km/hr. Highs 15 to 17 C.

    SUNDAY will become partly cloudy again with showers more isolated, somewhat warmer, lows near 8 C and highs about 19 or 20 C.

    MONDAY will be cloudy with sunny breaks, muggy and rather warm with highs 19 to 21 C. Rain is likely to stay off or near the north coast until afternoon then may move slowly south into parts of Connacht and Ulster.

    TUESDAY will be breezy and partly cloudy to overcast, highs 18 to 20 C.

    The outlook for mid-week to the weekend is for rather similar conditions to continue, partly cloudy to overcast skies much of the time and temperatures near or slightly above normal values in the 17 to 20 C range by day, nights fairly mild too.

    My local weather on Thursday was sunny and warmer than recent days with a high of 25 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 5 September, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 5 to 11 Sept 2020

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal values.
    -- Rainfall will vary from 50-75 per cent in the north, to 25-50 per cent in the south.
    -- Sunshine will be near average for early September (which is 4 to 4.5 hours a day).


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be mostly cloudy with showers and isolated thunderstorms, and by afternoon, longer intervals of light rain or drizzle mainly in northern counties. Winds west to northwest about 30-50 km/hr. Highs 15 to 17 C. Rainfall amounts 3 to 7 mm.

    TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast with some light rain at times, lows 7 to 9 C.

    SUNDAY will become partly cloudy again with showers more isolated, somewhat warmer, and highs about 19 or 20 C. Rainfall amounts trace to 2 mm.

    MONDAY will be cloudy with sunny breaks, muggy and rather warm with highs 19 to 22 C. Rain is likely to stay near the north coast until mid-morning, and then may move slowly south into parts of Connacht and Ulster eventually reaching further south as patchy drizzle. Rainfall amounts generally 1-3 mm north and trace to 1 mm south.

    TUESDAY will be breezy and partly cloudy to overcast, highs 18 to 22 C. Some rain will return late in the day.

    WEDNESDAY will become partly cloudy and slightly cooler with isolated showers, highs 16 to 18 C.

    THURSDAY and FRIDAY will remain rather warm but also quite cloudy for most, some sunny breaks in the south, highs 18 to 21 C.

    The further outlook is similar but with a gradual turn to more unsettled and occasionally windy or even stormy conditions during the second half of the month.

    My local weather was sunny and very warm with a high of about 27 C but the nights cool off quickly at this late stage of the summer, lows reaching about 10 C. The recently full moon is now moving past Mars in the midnight sky.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 6 September, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 6 to 12 September 2020

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal.
    -- Rainfall will average about half of normal in some parts of the north, to near 10 per cent in the south.
    -- Sunshine will average near normal values.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will see a bit of drizzle lingering in cloudy skies and westerly winds, then some clearing should develop later this morning from west to east, but followed by another increase in cloud by evening. Highs 17 to 19 C.

    TONIGHT will be overcast with drizzle turning to light or even moderate rain in some parts of north Connacht and west Ulster. It may stay dry in some parts of the south and east. Rather mild and humid with lows 13 to 15 C.

    MONDAY will be cloudy with the northern rain or drizzle moving east and ending. Skies may begin to clear partially by mid-day to reveal some warm hazy sunshine in some places. Highs 19 to 22 C.

    TUESDAY will be breezy and quite mild to warm with occasional drizzle near north and west coasts, some sunny breaks in south and east, winds increasing to southwest 40-60 km/hr, lows near 14 C and highs near 20 C.

    WEDNESDAY will see a bit of rain in the early morning, gusty westerly winds, then clearing during the day, with some afternoon sunshine, lows near 13 C and highs near 18 C.

    THURSDAY will be rather warm and cloudy with rain developing late in the day, lows near 13 C and highs near 20 C.

    FRIDAY and SATURDAY will become unsettled with intervals of light rain, somewhat cooler temperatures near 17 C.

    The further outlook is for unsettled to stormy conditions at times, with strong lows likely to be passing near Ireland at times in the week following next weekend.

    My local weather on Saturday was sunny, hazy and very warm to hot, with a high near 30 C. It has cooled off somewhat since sunset, around 15 C at midnight.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 7 September, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 7 to 13 September 2020

    -- Temperatures will average about 2 deg above normal.
    -- Rainfall will be somewhat variable from county to county with events of short duration and limited extent, sometimes rather intense locally, but the overall trend is likely to be below normal in totals.
    -- Sunshine will average 75 per cent of normal with fairly frequent cloud cover.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY some heavy rain showers will move through the southeast this morning, affecting mainly Carlow, Kilkenny and Wexford as well as parts of south Wicklow. Local rainfalls of 10-20 mm are possible with brief flooding of roads in a few spots. Otherwise most of the country is entering a cloudy but warm air mass of subtropical origins, with isolated showers or patchy drizzle mainly over coasts and hills. Some sun may break through the overcast raising temperatures over the general 19-22 C range expected under the cloud. Those instances may be oppressively warm in a few parts of the inland south and midlands later.

    TONIGHT will continue mostly cloudy with clear breaks and a muggy feel, lows only falling to the 13 to 15 C range.

    TUESDAY will see this weather regime continue with similar conditions, mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals, scattered outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, and warm highs 19 to 22 C.

    WEDNESDAY will see some early morning showers and a cold frontal passage that may produce some briefly gusty westerly winds, then the morning will become less warm and humid with clouds gradually breaking to partly cloudy skies by afternoon, morning lows near 12 C and afternoon highs near 18 C.

    THURSDAY will be partly cloudy and warm with highs near 21 C. Southwest winds will increase late in the day and rain will arrive.

    FRIDAY will be cloudy with occasional light rain and somewhat cooler temperatures with highs around 16 C.

    SATURDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers and highs near 18 C.

    SUNDAY will be warm and humid with highs 21 to 24 C.

    The first part of next week seems likely to stay rather warm as fronts push slowly towards Ireland from the Atlantic and join up with disturbances moving north from Biscay. This could lead to a heavy or thundery outbreak of rain by about Tuesday of next week, after which a slow cooling trend is likely.

    My local weather on Sunday was sunny, hazy and hot with highs near 32 C. The upper level ridge supporting this heat (and intense heat south of the border bringing high wildfire hazards to the western U.S.) will briefly shift out into the Pacific and allow cooler air to flow in from the northeast. That should arrive soon and last about two days, then the heat dome (as we call our version of the Spanish plume) will rebuild and it will turn hot again here for about a week.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 8 September, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 8 to 14 Sept 2020

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal.
    -- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.
    -- Sunshine will average 75 per cent of normal but could reach closer to normal in a few parts of east and inland south.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will see the warm, humid regime continue with mostly cloudy skies but with a few brighter intervals, these more prevalent in the south and east, and also scattered outbreaks of light rain or drizzle more likely in the west and north (not much accumulation trace to 2 mm), and warm highs 19 to 22 C. It could reach 23 or 24 if any sustained sunny intervals were to develop anywhere, this air mass is actually capable of producing even higher temperatures but an inversion is keeping the potential warmth from mixing fully through the lower atmosphere.

    TONIGHT a cold front will sweep through, there could be some brief heavy or squally showers, locally heavy rainfalls are possible although generally it will only be around 3 to 5 mm for most, then a fresher and less humid air mass will replace this current one, and temperatures will fall gradually to sunrise readings near 12 C. Winds will veer from southwest to west-northwest after midnight in the 40-60 km/hr range with some higher gusts possible especially over higher terrain near the Atlantic coasts.

    WEDNESDAY will see cloudy skies gradually clearing through late morning and early afternoon and there could be clear skies at times by evening. Moderate west to northwest winds at times, highs 16 to 18 C. Fairly cool overnight with lows 3 to 6 C.

    THURSDAY will be partly cloudy and warm with lows 3 to 6 C, and highs 17 to 21 C. Southwest winds will increase late in the day and rain will arrive.

    FRIDAY will be cloudy with occasional light rain and somewhat cooler temperatures with highs around 16 C.

    SATURDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers and highs near 18 C.

    SUNDAY will be warm and humid with highs 19 to 22 C. Increasing cloud with rain at times in the west and north, becoming quite windy also.

    MONDAY and possibly several following days will likely stay quite warm as the cold front pushing close to Ireland on Sunday evening may then ripple back north as a warm front and weaken, leaving Ireland in a warm southerly flow for several days ahead of slowly advancing frontal systems. Highs could be into the low 20s with isolated mid-20s.

    This warm regime next week is likely to lead to a more active period but with rather unpredictable tropical systems on the move now (two new named storms in the southern and eastern Atlantic) their possible impact on eventual outcomes will be difficult for the models to work out (which is a nice way of saying they won't work it out, I suppose).

    Now as to this tropical season which has just seen its 17th named storm ten days earlier than the previous record pace set in 2005, the eventual most active season with 28, it has to be noted that only five so far have been hurricanes which is not that impressive for any recent year let alone one with 17 named storms. And only one has been a major (Laura), which is no more than average for halfway through a season. The practice of naming storms includes omission of Q, U, X, Y and Z, so that after 21 storms we would reach the W name and then move on to the Greek alphabet as we did in 2005 (no other season made it that far, and the second most active year, 1933, was in an era before storms were named anyway, since naming began, 19 is second highest). The 2005 list was augmented after the year ended with an added storm called the "Azores hurricane" placed between Stan and Tammy. This year, we have reached the R storm (Rene) ten days earlier than 2005 produced Rita, but after our S storm, the T storm will be compared to the Azores hurricane for timing, and our V storm will be compared with Tammy of 2005. Then if we get to a W storm, that one will be compared to Vince of 2005, and if we need to use the Greek alphabet, the first storm (Alpha) will actually be comparable to Wilma of 2005 in terms of being the 22nd named storm. In late 2005 there were six more storms getting named from the Greek alphabet. I have to wonder if we will manage to equal that record, or what the plan is if they run out of Greek letters too.

    My local weather on Monday (which was Labour Day here) was partly cloudy, breezy and considerably cooler at 18 C, and by this evening it was clear and calm with a frosty feel (granted we are up in the mountains here). All of this has led to the formation of a powerful storm system over Colorado which is rapidly developing tonight. There is already heavy wet snow in higher parts of Wyoming and this will spread into the Rockies of Colorado. It will likely be a cold rain around Denver but mixing with snow especially to the west of that city. Very strong northeast winds have caused numerous problems throughout the western U.S. and southern B.C. with power lines down in places, blowing dust closing highways, and any forest fires rapidly spreading. This regime has now spread into most of Nevada and Utah but heat-baked California will not get the colder northeast winds, instead this will lead to hot "Santa Ana" winds which is the last thing they need given the widespread forest and rangeland fires already underway there. I am fearful of a major disaster developing along the lines of the 2018 Paradise event somewhere with these stronger winds setting in. Not hearing much about wildfires in the Great Basin states or northern Arizona but if they have any those will also be accelerating with these winds (which have gusted to 100 km/hr in places).


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,730 ✭✭✭yankinlk


    Tuesday, 8 September, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland


    Now as to this tropical season which has just seen its 17th named storm ten days earlier than the previous record pace set in 2005, the eventual most active season with 28, it has to be noted that only five so far have been hurricanes which is not that impressive for any recent year let alone one with 17 named storms. And only one has been a major (Laura), which is no more than average for halfway through a season. The practice of naming storms includes omission of Q, U, X, Y and Z, so that after 21 storms we would reach the W name and then move on to the Greek alphabet as we did in 2005 (no other season made it that far, and the second most active year, 1933, was in an era before storms were named anyway, since naming began, 19 is second highest). The 2005 list was augmented after the year ended with an added storm called the "Azores hurricane" placed between Stan and Tammy. This year, we have reached the R storm (Rene) ten days earlier than 2005 produced Rita, but after our S storm, the T storm will be compared to the Azores hurricane for timing, and our V storm will be compared with Tammy of 2005. Then if we get to a W storm, that one will be compared to Vince of 2005, and if we need to use the Greek alphabet, the first storm (Alpha) will actually be comparable to Wilma of 2005 in terms of being the 22nd named storm. In late 2005 there were six more storms getting named from the Greek alphabet. I have to wonder if we will manage to equal that record, or what the plan is if they run out of Greek letters too.

    I could read this all day long. :) As always thanks for your forecasts - KUTGW!


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Could update by mentioning that both Paulette (sorry I think I called her Philippe oops) and Rene are now forecast to become minimal hurricanes later this week so the count might reach 17/7/1. Of all the seasons that reached 18 named storms, only last year's 18/6/3 finish resembles what we might get this year (in terms of a ratio of hurricanes to named storms), most of the others managed at least 10 hurricanes and four or five majors. 2005 had a final count of 28/15/7.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 9 September, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 9 to 15 Sept 2020

    -- Temperatures will average about 2 deg above normal values, which would be around 18-19 C daytime and 8-9 C overnight, so more like low 20s at times, and lows in the 10-15 C range.
    -- Rainfall will average about 50 to 75 per cent of normal, but could be closer to normal in the far north, and closer to just 25 per cent in the south.
    -- Sunshine will average about 75 per cent of normal values to near average in the east.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will have some sunny intervals especially in the south and east, but more cloud lingering in northwest and most of Ulster. Highs will reach 20 C in parts of the east and south, more like 17 C further north.

    TONIGHT will bring some clear intervals, and lows of 6 to 9 C.

    THURSDAY will see gradually increasing cloud except for steadily overcast northern counties, and rain will arrive towards evening with freshening southwest winds to 40 km/hr. Highs 17 to 20 C.

    FRIDAY will be mostly cloudy with occasional light rain, 3 to 5 mm expected, and moderate southwest to west winds of 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows near 10 C and highs 15 to 17 C.

    SATURDAY will become less showery but cloud may linger with just a few brighter intervals, a little warmer and more humid by afternoon, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C.

    SUNDAY will be quite warm and muggy with rain developing for parts of the west and north, more likely to stay dry further south with perhaps a few brighter spells, lows near 14 C and highs near 20 C.

    From MONDAY to WEDNESDAY a slow battle will develop between frontal systems massing to the west and south, and the high pressure that has been to our south, but by then building up further north to promote more of an easterly wind flow. That can be reasonably warm and dry if the moisture from these systems failed to push in, but some probably will across a few parts of the south and west. Highs will be in the low 20s in some parts of the country to around 18 C in any rainfall.

    Although that scenario may just fizzle out eventually, stronger fronts will then begin to develop and have more success pushing east, eventually it could get quite stormy some time towards late September.

    There are a couple of tropical storms that could each become a weak hurricane in the east-central Atlantic, but signs of a stronger system to come when a wave moves out of west Africa later this week. So while Paulette and Rene may not have that much impact on weather north of the subtropics, this future storm could be one that does the grand tour of the North Atlantic, details obviously to be determined.

    My local weather on Tuesday started out record cold with temperatures around 1 C at sunrise, then under clear but increasingly hazy skies (forest fire smoke flowing in from across the border) it recovered to 20 C, and we will resume the interrupted heat wave later today. Strong winds pushed down into the Great Basin states, Las Vegas had a nasty wake-up from 50 mph winds that blew down trees and closed campgrounds on nearby Lake Mead, meanwhile some strong wind gusts hit forest fires in northeast California and intensified those, but I think the winds will soon die out so hopefully it won't get too much out of control, fortunately quite some distance from larger towns. Another fire complex near Mono Lake in east central California has been causing numerous helicopter rescues of stranded campers at the end of a canyon with no other escape. It appeared that people were being forced into the water of a rather small lake to avoid getting scorched, before the help arrived.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 10 September, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for week of 10 to 16 Sept 2020

    -- Temperatures will average 1 to 3 deg above normal values.
    -- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal, could touch 100 per cent in south if locally heavy rains develop there around Monday.
    -- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal also, rather cloudy in general despite the warmth.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be cloudy with some sunny or at least brighter intervals in the inland south and Leinster. Highs will reach about 16 or 17 C under persistent cloud, to 20 C where the sun breaks through. Rain should hold off until evening for most regions but could start in the afternoon in Atlantic counties.

    TONIGHT will be overcast, breezy and mild with occasional light rain, 1 to 3 mm, lows of about 12 C.

    FRIDAY will be cloudy with a few breaks, with intervals of light rain tapering to showers, moderate southwest winds and highs 16 to 18 C.

    SATURDAY will become rather windy especially north of the Shannon estuary to Connacht and west Ulster. There, winds will reach southwest 70-100 km/hr with rain at times. In other parts of the country especially the southeast, while mostly cloudy, generally dry with lows 10 to 13 C, highs 18 to 20 C, winds more moderate (southwest 40 to 70 km/hr). Rain could become rather heavy late Saturday then will begin to taper off to drizzle by Sunday morning.

    SUNDAY will be a warm, humid day with some rain at times mainly in the western and northern counties. Lows of about 14 C and highs near 21 C.

    MONDAY will continue warm, some rain will push into western counties and a more energetic pulse might hit the south coastal counties later. Inland and towards the north it will become quite warm with highs reaching low 20s, temperatures in the rain will be closer to 18 C.

    TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will continue unsettled and rather warm with southeasterly breezes and some rain at times, highs near 20 C.

    The further outlook calls for a very gradual cooling trend as the Atlantic gradually pushes back through this temporary block and eventually becomes quite active. There are slight risks of a tropical storm remnant hitting at some point, nothing very definite on that yet. After Paulette and Rene expire in about a week (Rene is more likely to have some indirect impacts near Ireland), a more vigorous tropical storm is very likely across the tropical Atlantic into the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico or Bahamas to east coast of the U.S., details on this are sketchy now, but a recent model run showed a high impact hurricane forming in the vicinity of western Cuba and hitting Florida two weeks from now. Something to keep an eye on.

    My local weather stayed sunny, hazy from smoke, and it became hot again on Wednesday with a return to near 30 C temperatures. It has cooled back down to around 15 C at 11:30 pm local time. Mars is getting brighter each week as we approach the overtaking point known as opposition this autumn. To my eye it's now a bit brighter than Jupiter. Later on (here) I should have a good view of the moon and Venus rising, if I make it that far into the night.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 11 September, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 11 to 17 Sept 2020

    -- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg above normal values.
    -- Rainfall will vary from 150% of normal in some parts of the north, to only 25-50 per cent of normal near the south coast and in parts of Leinster. Some other areas such as Munster, the midlands and Ulster may work out closer to normal values.
    -- Sunshine will be fortunate to break the 50% barrier, it may do so in parts of the south and east.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will continue mostly cloudy with outbreaks of moderate or heavy rain across parts of northern Connacht into west Ulster. Some localized flood potential exists around Westport to Sligo, where 20-40 mm could fall, but other areas will see more like 10-20 mm. Further south, the rain will be more showery and may range from 5 to 15 mm. Moderate southwest winds and highs 16 to 19 C.

    TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy with a bit of rain or drizzle at times, lows near 12 C.

    SATURDAY will be windy and in parts of the north quite wet and blustery, with 20-40 mm rainfall potential in north Connacht and west Ulster (again), flood risk is moderate in some cases. Again further south, not as much rain with some nearly dry conditions in the south, southeast and east. Winds increasing to southwest 50-80 km/hr with higher gusts at times near Atlantic coasts. Highs 18-20 C.

    SUNDAY will become warmer and quite humid with some residual shower activity in the north, but brighter intervals may develop by afternoon, lows near 14 C and highs near 22 C.

    MONDAY is also looking quite warm now with just a chance of rain brushing the south and west coasts, some sunshine elsewhere, lows near 15 C and highs 21 to 24 C.

    The rest of next week will likely stay rather warm, with some outbreaks of light rain, until about Thursday when rain will become heavier and temperatures will gradually fall back into the mid-teens.

    My local weather was sunny, hazy and very warm with a high near 28 C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 12 September, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 12 to 18 September 2020

    -- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg above normal values.
    -- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal, to near average in the far north.
    -- Sunshine will average about 75 per cent of normal values.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals mainly in the south and east. There will be outbreaks of light, showery rain in most areas, but not very frequent except in parts of north Connacht and west Ulster where 5-15 mm could accumulate eventually. The heaviest rain now appears to be tracking a bit further north and may only skim by a few parts of Donegal on its way to Scotland tonight. Winds will increase to southwest 50 to 70 km/hr in exposed coastal areas, but only about 30 to 50 km/hr inland over much of the country. Highs 18 to 21 C.

    TONIGHT will see a few more showers and it will remain very mild with lows 12 to 15 C.

    SUNDAY will be warm and humid with a few sunny breaks mainly in the south and east. Rain will be generally confined to a few parts of the northwest and Ulster, but even there may not amount to much. Highs 19 to 22 C.

    MONDAY will continue quite warm and muggy with lows near 15 C and highs near 22 C. Some rain may edge into the south coast and parts of the west.

    TUESDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy and warm with a few showers, lows near 15 C and highs near 22 C.

    The OUTLOOK for the rest of the week is for a slow downward trend in temperatures as winds turn from southeast to northeast, but it won't likely drop much below seasonal normals at any point, as the cooler air masses will still have their origin in latitudes similar to Ireland further east. Also, hurricane (by then) Paulette is expected to track from near Bermuda on Monday to southern Greenland and this will anchor a ridge of high pressure over the eastern Atlantic. If that scenario changed to a more aggressive track for the hurricane, it might also result in warmer weather returning later in the week.

    My local weather on Friday was hazy and hot with a high of about 31 C. The tropical regions are very active, Paulette now looks stronger than expected earlier, while Rene looks weak and is probably not going to be a hurricane. A new tropical disturbance near the Bahamas threatens south Florida and later the eastern Gulf of Mexico with tropical storm conditions. And waves moving out of Africa will form the basis for two more systems to watch, one of which looks quite likely to reach hurricane strength and follow Paulette although a bit closer to the east coast of the U.S. and past Newfoundland in about ten days' time.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sunday, 13 September, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 13 to 19 September 2020

    -- Temperatures will average 3 deg above normal values.
    -- Rainfall will average 10 to 50 per cent of normal values (not counting earlier rain overnight).
    -- Sunshine will improve gradually and check in near or slightly above normal by end of the week.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will become partly cloudy and even sunny at times in a few locations, with rather blustery southwest winds continuing near Atlantic coasts and some other well exposed locations, although these breezes will be more moderate in much of the south and east. Quite warm with highs reaching about 23 C in central, eastern and inland southern counties, near 20 C further north and closer to south and west coast.

    TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to clear and mild, with lows 12 to 15 C.

    MONDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny at times, hazy and quite warm. There is a slight chance of brief outbreaks of light rain in a few parts of the southwest, but these are not expected to be very prolonged or heavy. Highs will reach 19 to 24 C, warmest values midlands to inland northwest due to a turn in winds to south-southeast.

    TUESDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny at times, with lows near 13 C and highs 19 to 23 C.

    WEDNESDAY will also be partly cloudy to sunny with lows near 12 C and highs 18 to 22 C.

    After this warm spell, just a gradual shift to somewhat more average mid-September temperatures as the surface flow turns a bit more northeasterly due to swelling up of high pressure to the west of Ireland mid-week. This may drop temperatures in coastal Leinster more than other places, which could remain fairly warm. The high will probably (no guarantees) keep Hurricane Paulette well to the west of Ireland after it tangles with Bermuda over the next day or so.

    Meanwhile Rene has fizzled out and with a non-tropical low west of Ireland drifting south towards where it was trying to head, Rene has no support for further development and will likely be gone soon. TD 19 turned into "Sally" in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and that could become a hurricane before landfall near Mobile Bay around Gulfport MS. Sally is twenty days ahead of the record pace of 2005 (Stan in that year) but right after Stan came the Azores hurricane and Tammy, so this twenty day gap will narrow, first when TD 20 (designated earlier in the east-central tropical Atlantic) likely becomes Teddy in a few days, then we would be waiting a while for another named storm which will be Vicky. Wilfred would be the last conventionally named storm of 2020, then it would be on to the Greek alphabet (six letters were needed in 2005, we'll see if we even get into that in 2020). I think the odds are not great that 2020 will beat 2005 eventually because that season kept on producing well into Nov-Dec, but we should comfortably displace 1933 (20 storms) from second place. No names were given to storms then, so that's just the number of tropical storms or in eleven cases hurricanes that formed that year.

    My local weather turned rather ugly on Saturday with thick layers of smoke drifting in from the massive fires in the western states. We partially avoided this by spending the day further north where it was hazy but not quite as nasty as we found it to be here upon return (actually half way back it was looking similar, a dim red then later pink sun in an otherwise brownish-grey sky, but quite hot due to earlier sunshine, about 29 C). We may be in and out of these thicker smoke layers for several days, otherwise the weather is clear above the smoke layers. Much smaller fires are burning near some local mountains too, but their smoke alone would just be nuisance within a few kilometers, whereas this larger smoke haze is originating from Oregon and California as well as nearby Washington. At least we got through most of the season without smoke problems this year, unlike several recent years where much longer intervals were marred by smoke.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Monday, 14 September, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland


    TRENDS for the week of 14 to 20 September, 2020

    -- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg above normal values.
    -- Rainfall will average as little as 10 per cent of normal in parts of the east and southeast, up to perhaps half of normal values further west. Most of this small rainfall would come on Tuesday.
    -- Sunshine will average near normal to 25 per cent above normal, again sunnier further east.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be cloudy with some sunny intervals although the sunshine may be dimmed by high cloud layers. Rather warm especially inland and east. Highs 19 to 23 C. Some light rain could develop at times in parts of the northwest, amounts only 1-3 mm.

    TONIGHT will be hazy and mild with a few spots of rain in parts of the west and north. Lows around 12 to 15 C.

    TUESDAY will bring variable amounts of cloud, some sunny breaks, and isolated showers. Many places will remain dry. Highs 19 to 23 C.

    WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny, and continuing rather warm. Lows 10 to 13 C and highs 18 to 22 C.

    THURSDAY and FRIDAY will have sunny intervals but will turn slightly cooler especially in Leinster due to the onset of east to northeast breezes. Lows near 8 C and highs near 19 C west, 16 C east.

    The further outlook is for settled, at times sunny weather to continue as high pressure will remain close to Britain and Ireland. Temperatures will be not quite as warm as this week but still near or above average. There will be slight risks of tropical weather systems breaking down this block but that is not clearly indicated at this point.

    The tropical situation has not changed much since my last forecast, Sally is slowly gaining strength and will hit just west of Mobile Bay late tonight. Paulette is tangling with Bermuda today, Rene is very close to extinct, and T.D. 20 has not yet become a tropical storm. Another potential storm now exists to its northeast, so it's not certain that T.D. 20 would become Teddy, the other one might gain that name, leaving T.D. to take the next name, Vicky. After that, it wouild be Wilfred at some unknown future date and possibly into the Greek alphabet again for the second time since 2005.

    My local weather was very hazy from forest fire smoke layers, the sun was dimly visible but unable to heat up the air as much as it did for several recent days, so the high stalled out near 23 C. It is unpleasant to be outdoors with this much smoke and it adds another health risk to the vulnerable (along with COVID). Apparently the situation is somewhat improved in the fire zones but it will take days if not weeks to ventilate this smoky stagnant air mass.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Tuesday, 15 September, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 15 to 21 September

    -- Temperatures will average 2 deg above normal with a gradual decrease through the interval, close to normal values by the end of the week.
    -- Rainfall will average 10 to 20 per cent of normal from a few showers today to Thursday, fairly dry conditions expected later in the week and well into the following week also.
    -- Sunshine will average near normal to 25 per cent above normal in a few spots.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will start out rather cloudy in the east with light showers moving slowly away from east Ulster and the east coast of Leinster. Later on, with mainly sunny but hazy skies dominating in central and eastern counties, another area of cloud may develop further west with light showers from that also. Amounts in all cases are not likely to exceed 2 mm in many locations. Highs 22 to 25 C for most, 18 to 22 C near some coasts.

    TONIGHT will have hazy and partly cloudy skies, lows near 10 C, with some dense local fog patches forming.

    WEDNESDAY will be cloudy with sunny intervals in most places, isolated showers mainly inland western counties. Still rather warm although a cooling easterly breeze setting in along east coast and into much of Ulster. Highs will reach 18 to 23 C in most areas, 15 to 18 C near east coast and in east Ulster.

    THURSDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with scattered light showers, not much accumulation expected. Lows near 11 C and highs near 19 C.

    FRIDAY and the WEEKEND will likely be more sunny than previous days with only slight chances of isolated showers, moderate east winds at times, lows near 7 C and highs near 17 C on average, perhaps near 20 in parts of the west but as cool as 14 C near east coast.

    NEXT WEEK will continue to be influenced by the blocking high until perhaps the following weekend, and a dry spell may continue to near the end of the month.

    In the busy tropical theatre, Sally is slowly approaching a landfall northeast of New Orleans, Paulette is slowly pulling away from storm-battered Bermuda, Teddy continues a gradual intensification moving past northern South America now, and Vicky has likely peaked well off to the southwest of the Cabo Verde islands at 50 knots. There is a slight chance that the Atlantic low west of Ireland, slowly drifting south, will become a subtropical storm west of Portugal in a few days' time. It would then probably perform a slow loop back towards southern Biscay marine areas and perhaps spread a bit of cloud towards the south coast of Ireland next week. Teddy is expected to become a powerful hurricane in a few days' time, move east of Bermuda and towards the central Atlantic. While Paulette seems unable to shift the blocking high, Teddy might be more successful with the help of another tropical storm following behind, that one either Wilfred or Alpha depending on what happens elsewhere in the Atlantic basin in the next week to ten days. Remnants of Teddy and/or the following storm could bring an end to the dry spell and light winds associated with blocking high pressure although nothing very drastic is suggested on the long-range maps so far.

    My local weather has remained very hazy from forest fire smoke, and that is suppressing temperatures considerably despite no change in air mass, now we're struggling to reach 20 C in the daytime with a weak sun barely casting shadows at mid-day. I checked various reports and this temperature decrease is a feature of the regional weather pattern with many places now below average despite uppers that could support hot weather.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Wednesday, 16 September, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 16 to 22 Sept 2020

    -- Temperatures will average 2 deg above normal values, although closer to average later in the weekly interval.
    -- Rainfall will average close to zero with many places largely dry, 10 per cent of normal in a few spots.
    -- Sunshine will increase through the period and could be 25 to 50 per cent above normal values.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be sunny, hazy and rather warm in many places, with more cloud likely in parts of west Munster where one or two light showers could develop by afternoon. Light east winds will bring a slight cooling to the east coast but this won't penetrate very far inland today. Highs generally 20 to 24 C, somewhat cooler under cloud or in coastal sea breezes.

    TONIGHT will continue dry and clear with fog patches developing. Lows 8 to 11 C.

    THURSDAY will be mostly sunny with light to moderate east winds, somewhat more extensive east coast sea breeze cooling is likely, but highs inland 20 to 23 C.

    FRIDAY to about MONDAY will continue very similar although with a gradual downward trend in daytime highs and overnight lows, and also more significant risks of dense fog formation with some fog persisting a few hours after sunrise in valleys inland. Highs will be drifting slowly down towards the 16 to 19 C range, and overnight lows could eventually turn rather chilly, 2 to 6 C.

    The further outlook is rather uncertain with the blocking pattern showing signs of breaking down around Tuesday 22nd or Wednesday 23rd, with a return to more mobile weather patterns, some rain at times, and the risk of tropical remnants reaching Ireland.

    Sally has recently strengthened on a slow approach to landfall now expected to be east of Mobile Bay. Sally's remnants will emerge back into the Atlantic around this coming weekend but no redevelopment is expected. Paulette has moved on from Bermuda and will soon get trapped in a cut-off low situated to the west of the Azores. It will slowly move through that zone trying to find some way through the block. Teddy is expected to follow a fairly similar track and may hit Bermuda in about a week, then will batter down the block and pass to the north of Ireland and Scotland. In a new twist, that allows weak remnants of Paulette to make a final push for Europe, although the remnants would be weak and disorganized. Vicky meanwhile has a day or two left before running out of friendly upper support in the eastern Atlantic.

    My local weather improved slightly with the smoke layers thinning out enough to reveal a watery blue-grey hazy sky with highs reaching about 25 C with the more direct sunlight. Sally will make a landfall in northwest Florida near Pensacola to Fort Walton Beach, around noon local time (1800h in Ireland). The forward speed is so slow that hurricane intensity winds and rain will be lashing that region for a total of 2-3 days. Some huge rainfall totals are likely to materialize in a poorly drained swampy region, and storm surges will add to coastal flooding problems.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Thursday, 17 September, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 17 of 23 September

    -- This fine spell of weather will last about another week and seems likely to break down near the end of this weekly interval. Therefore there would be some uncertainty about rainfall since any potential for it only exists near the end of the week. The best estimate is that the week will average 2 deg above normal in temperatures, remain dry to very near the end, and that sunshine will be 25 to 50 per cent above normal values as cloud continues to decrease under the ridge.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will be mostly sunny and quite warm except near some eastern coasts where a moderate easterly wind will bring a cooling sea breeze some 10-15 kms inland with smaller effects to about 50 kms inland. Highs of about 23 or 24 C are likely in central and western counties, although with local sea breezes on all coasts providing some cooling effects there as well. Then in eastern regions the highs will be in the range of 18 to 22 C, lowest near shorelines.

    TONIGHT will be clear to partly cloudy at times, with locally dense fog patches forming after midnight. Lows 7 to 10.

    FRIDAY will be mostly sunny and warm again, with similar temperatures to today, possibly on average about one degree lower in all cases, as this air mass will slowly moderate towards more normal temperatures.

    The WEEKEND and MONDAY will see a continuation of this trend with partly cloudy to sunny weather both days, fairly light east to southeast winds but variable around coasts in general, and overnight lows 4 to 8 C with daytime highs 16 to 20 C. Later Monday, there could be some increasing cloud over much of the west and north with the slow approach of frontal systems breaking into the blocking regime.

    As it looks now, the middle of next week will see a slow breakdown of the dry spell with increasing amounts of cloud and some rain edging into western and northern counties but not making much progress for several days. Temperatures will likely be just slightly above average by then, daytime highs 15 to 19 C.

    Towards the end of next week, a more decisive change in the pattern will come about as remnants of Hurricane Teddy, possibly pulling in remnants of former hurricane Paulette from its position south of the Azores by then, creates a stronger wind gradient and spreads at least some rain across most of the country. Details remain sketchy, but there is no strong indication of a direct hit of a well-organized storm, more like the dying phases of a disorganized widespread breakdown of the systems over the eastern third of the Atlantic.

    Worth noting also that a "medicane" has formed east of Sicily and will drift slowly east possibly affecting parts of western Greece in a few days. Remnants of Sally are drenching the inland southeastern U.S. and a bit of that energy will also be rippling into the Atlantic this weekend, Sally is not expected to redevelop to any extent but a frontal wave will race towards Iceland and start to position the front for later action across western Europe.

    My local weather continues to see a mixture of hot, dry influences from the upper pattern, and cooler misty effects from smoke layers drifting along in the lower levels of the atmosphere, so we have been getting alternating spells of hazy sunshine and almost a fog with water droplets condensing out, highs during the sunnier intervals reaching mid to high 20s, but temperatures fluctuating with the amount of smoke. Rather strange weather to say the least. The source fires are somewhat diminished (mainly in Oregon now) but not yet under control entirely.

    Today at 1101h UTC (1201 IST) marks the new moon which will bring on the start of the Jewish holiday Rosh Hashanah.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Friday, 18 September, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 18 to 24 September 2020

    -- Temperatures will average about 1 deg above normal with a decreasing trend that may take us below average by the end of this weekly interval.
    -- Rainfall will be about half of normal values, much of it will occur around Tuesday.
    -- Sunshine will be near normal to 25 per cent above normal values.


    FORECASTS

    TODAY will feature plenty of sunshine once any fog patches dissipate. Moderate east winds at times will cool off the east coast by several degrees, highs in central and inland south, west will reach 20-23 C, but will be held down to around 17 C near the east coast and in parts of Ulster.

    TONIGHT will become foggy after midnight in many areas, and this fog could be dense leading to hazardous driving conditions in some inland counties. Lows 7 to 10 C.

    SATURDAY will see sunshine after the fog slowly burns off, but the fog may be a little more persistent as the air mass slowly cools down. Eventually, highs will reach 15 to 20 C, coolest near east coast.

    SUNDAY will be similar with persistent morning fog, hazy sunshine later on, and a tendency for fog to form faster in the evening also. Lows 3 to 6 C and highs 14 to 19 C.

    MONDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, still dry in most areas, but rain may edge towards the Atlantic coast. Lows 2 to 5 C and highs 13 to 18 C.

    TUESDAY will become rather breezy and turn slightly colder after some sporadic rain moves through, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

    The OUTLOOK for mid-week towards the weekend of 26th-27th is for rather cool autumnal weather, bright spells each day with passing showers, and the risk of an interval of steady rain developing towards the weekend if the fronts are pushed back towards Ireland as warm fronts. Highs in this interval will be 12 to 15 C. Slight frosts are possible where skies clear for any length of time overnight.

    There is some uncertainty about the outlook period because of powerful hurricane Teddy. Most guidance now shows Teddy heading north after hitting Bermuda late Sunday into Monday. A landfall in Nova Scotia is indicated, and the remnants of Teddy would be drawn into the west Greenland region but meanwhile some of the energy from Sally will be heading northeast ahead of Teddy and pulling the frontal systems down towards western Europe. It is conceivable that the models will backtrack and show Teddy on a different course within a day or two, and if so, that could limit or reverse the cooling signal for later next week, especially if Teddy decided he would rather go towards Scotland than Nova Scotia. Meanwhile, a fairly good chance exists that "Wilfred" will be along soon in the western Gulf of Mexico with "Alpha" next up and possibly forming from a wave that is following Teddy from the eastern tropical Atlantic. There's a slight chance of these two forming in reverse order (Wilfred being the Atlantic storm, Alpha in the Gulf) but the Gulf storm is already designated Tropical Disturbance 22. As I mentioned, Wilfred's timing must be compared to Vince of 2005 because of the extra named storm that year. So the Alpha of 2020 will be comparable as 22nd named storm recognized, to Wilma of 2005, which was a very powerful storm that formed in mid-October of that season. This year's Beta will be comparable to 2005 Alpha, etc, as far as earliest on record goes. But the name added in 2005 simply moves up the 2020 advantage in terms of first named Greek alphabet storm; this season is likely to win most of these timing battles until perhaps mid-November because 2005 pumped out three in quick succession in mid-November, if we don't follow suit, 2020 could eventually fall behind the record pace set that season.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,279 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Saturday, 19 September, 2020

    Forecasts for Ireland



    TRENDS for the week of 19 to 25 September 2020

    -- Temperatures will be near normal values, with a downward trend reaching 2-3 below normal near end.
    -- Rainfall will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.
    -- Sunshine will be near average for this time of year.

    FORECASTS

    TODAY will see some cloud, mostly of higher types, spreading across the south, but some sunshine will continue to break through. The moderate east winds will cool off the eastern counties to around 15 C, while further west highs of 19 or 20 C are likely.

    TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with some fog patches forming and cool, with lows 3 to 7 C.

    SUNDAY will be partly cloudy again once any persistent fog dissipates, with somewhat less cooling from easterly breezes as they drop off to lighter values, highs still in the 15 to 20 C range.

    MONDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with increasing lower cloud decks expected across parts of the north, leading to rain late in the day there. Lows 3 to 7 C and highs 15 to 20 C.

    TUESDAY will become quite breezy and considerably cooler with intervals of light rain followed by partial clearing, winds westerly 40 to 70 km/hr, lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C.

    The outlook for mid-week and towards the following weekend is generally rather cool and occasionally wet as Atlantic frontal systems return. Highs will be in the 12 to 16 C range and nights sometimes close to frost levels.

    There is still some uncertainty in the longer term forecast due to Teddy, which is still most likely to head north from near Bermuda this weekend into some part of eastern Canada then on towards Greenland as a remnant low. The current guidance does not show much left of Teddy's circulation by the time it gets past the middle of the Atlantic but that could conceivably change if the track is only a glancing blow of Newfoundland and not as earlier thought a longer run into the Canadian provinces of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland-Labrador.

    The tropical action was fast and furious, with the Atlantic storm I mentioned getting the name Wilfred (it is not predicted to have much of a future), then a regular Atlantic low near Portugal briefly acquiring enough subtropical storm characteristics to snag the name Alpha, so that the Gulf of Mexico storm now has the name Beta. As happened in 2005, Beta shows signs of becoming a hurricane (Alpha peaked at 50 knots and dissipated overnight in the Iberian peninsula). This year's Beta is a month earlier than 2005 Alpha (the 23rd named storm of each season) but as I mentioned, this is no guarantee of outdoing 2005 by end of play, although clearly there is no hesitation in naming just about anything this year.


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