Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium · 10-06-2021 7:17am

Thursday, 10 June, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 10 to 16 June 2021 --

-- Temperatures will range from 1 deg above normal in the west, to 3 deg above in the east. In all regions, nights will average more above normal than days although the difference will be slight.
-- Rainfalls will average only 25 to 50 per cent of normal in the west, and zero to 25 per cent in the east. A significant amount of that will come near the end of the weekly interval.
-- Sunshine will average only 50 per cent of normal in the west, to 75 per cent in the east, and some coastal locations could see as little as 25 per cent.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and only a few widely separated outbreaks of light rain mostly near Atlantic coasts. Highs near 22 C in the east but only 16 to 19 C elsewhere.

(astronomy note: A partial eclipse of the Sun around 1100h may be accompanied by slightly reduced light intensity, if you happen to have any clear breaks during this event, of course don't look directly at the Sun, but if you have some cloud layers and can see a dim outline of the sun's disk you may see that the top third of it has been covered by the Moon (from about 1030 to 1130 this may be noticeable). The eclipse is more total well to the north around Greenland and even up there it's an "annular" eclipse meaning that the Moon is too distant from the earth at this point in its orbit to cover the sun's disk completely, so in some places it will be seen within the glare of the Sun's disk ... and that will reduce the illumination considerably but as I found out at the total eclipse in 2017, even a small amount of the Sun's disk uncovered gives dim daylight conditions, and the drop in light intensity at full coverage is quite sudden (within a few seconds it goes from twilight to nearly full darkness). )

TONIGHT will become overcast again with a few outbreaks of light rain, lows 13 to 17 C.

FRIDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, and perhaps a degree or two cooler in some parts of the north in particular, as a very weak front moves in, with scattered outbreaks of light rain. Highs 17 to 21 C.

SATURDAY will be warmer again with perhaps a bit more sunshine in all areas, although cloud will be widespread to start the day. Lows 13 to 17 C and highs 19 to 24 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy, with perhaps less of the humidity without much change in temperature, lows 12 to 16 and highs 18 to 25 C.

MONDAY will become partly sunny with lower humidity and somewhat cooler temperatures, lows 12 to 14 C and highs 18 to 22 C.

TUESDAY will feature increasing cloud and highs near 22 C.

From late Tuesday to about Thursday of next week, cooler air will move in and highs on Wednesday and Thursday may be back down into the teens (15-19 C) with nights a few degrees cooler too. Some showers are likely, with a slight chance of heavier rainfall developing.

The pattern from then on appears rather unsettled and near average for temperatures, if perhaps a bit cool in the daytime hours, compensated by mild nights to reach near average overall.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast with a few sprinkles of light rain, clearing up slowly this evening. We won't see any phases of this eclipse here as the Sun does not rise until about the end of the event so that here, if the Sun happened to go dark at mid-day we would be seeing the Moon off to its left as it moves away on its journey around the earth. Although we think of the Moon following the Sun around in the sky and moving from east to west, it is moving east relative to the Sun around new moon. This is why every day it would appear to rise about an hour later and within two or three days it becomes visible in the evening sky.

M.T. Cranium · 11-06-2021 7:57am

Friday, 11 June, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, warm for about another week or so, rather dry although cloudy and humid especially in the west, with a slowly increasing chance of rain later in the outlook. The trend beyond the week we normally track is of course less reliable but it looks rather poor, hoping it will reverse.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy in the east to mostly overcast in the west with a few more bright spells than has been the case recently. A few showers will pass by to the north, small amounts of rain likely with them however. Highs about 22 C in some parts of the east, 20 C midlands, 18 C south and west coasts and some parts of the north which will be clipped by a slightly cooler air mass briefly, but that won't make much progress south. Breezy at times, west-southwest 40 to 60 km/hr especially in areas close to the Atlantic.

TONIGHT could feature a few clear intervals but rather cloudy to the west and north again, lows 13 to 16 C.

SATURDAY will turn slightly warmer again with hazy sunshine in many areas, still some low cloud around especially early in the day, breaking up gradually by mid-day where it is a factor. A few coastal locations could remain under low cloud or sea fog but even by the sea there is some chance of sunshine and warmer temperatures. Highs could reach about 25 C in the east, and 19-22 C in other regions.

SUNDAY will start out warm and bright with some sunny intervals, then cloud will increase as a weak front arrives, bringing scattered showers, and a slight chance of a brief thunderstorm, nothing too heavy is expected from this, as the air mass coming in behind the front is almost identical to this current one. Lows near 17 C and highs near 23 C except a few degrees cooler near some coasts.

MONDAY will be a somewhat less humid day and could turn out quite sunny in places, the main difference between this new regime and the current one is humidity levels are going to drop a little, expect lows around 14 C and highs in the range of 19 to 23 C.

TUESDAY will probably be the last warm day for a while, as a more active front approaches, so with increasing cloud and a stronger southwest wind developing, rain may arrive later in the day, after highs near 23 C.

The OUTLOOK for the mid-week and later on towards the weekend of 19-20 June is for cooler weather, unsettled at times with threats of heavier rainfalls especially towards the following week. Highs will be back down into the teens and could be rather cool for late June, so a reversal of the current trend seems to be in store.

My local weather was rather cloudy again with a few moments of sunshine as clouds covered about 90% of the sky most of the day. This cooler air mass is feeding into a very strong disturbance over North Dakota and southern Manitoba, which has some severe storms and heavy rain producing cells developing overnight, with 35 C hot and humid air to the south of the border and temperatures closer to 18 C ahead of a warm front, so it could produce some flooding rainfalls in places. Some wind gusts to 130 km/hr were reported a few hours ago in western North Dakota and the radar imagery looks like heavy hail is in the mix too.

M.T. Cranium · 12-06-2021 8:16am

Saturday, 12 June, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 12 to 18 June, 2021

-- Temperatures will average near normal to 2 deg above normal, with the trend gradually declining from above normal values at first to below normal by end of the week. Eastern regions will be more likely to average above normal mainly because they will have considerably warmer temperatures in the first half, all regions will fall to about 2-4 below normal by about Friday of this coming week.
-- Rainfall will gradually increase to about 50-75 per cent of normal values in parts of the west and north but a lot of this rain is expected to dry up before reaching the east where 25 per cent of normal might be the limit.
-- Sunshine will average about 75 per cent of normal values with closer to 50 per cent likely in cloudier coastal south, west and northwest.
-- Winds will pick up to more moderate values at times.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be rather cloudy but there will be a few intervals of warm sunshine in many areas by later this morning and early afternoon. Cloud will then increase again towards the late afternoon and evening with rain moving into some parts of north Connacht and west Ulster. Winds moderate southwest 40-60 km/hr. Highs for many areas around 20-23 C but could reach 23-25 C in Leinster. Quite humid with the risk of sea fog becoming persistent near some south and west coast locations but rather hit or miss with some intervals of brighter weather possible there also.

TONIGHT will be overcast and muggy with intervals of light rain across parts of Ulster, Connacht and the midlands. This will amount to 3-5 mm in some places. Some fog or mist likely. Lows 13 to 17 C.

SUNDAY will once again turn somewhat brighter after a cloudy start in most places, and it will reach similar temperatures with highs 20-23 C for most, 23-25 C in a few spots near the east coast. Another front will develop and move into the west and north with occasional rain lasting overnight. This may have somewhat better chances of reaching the east and south at times overnight into early Monday but amounts will range from 5-10 mm in the north to trace values in some parts of the southeast. Quite humid making the relatively moderate temperatures feel oppressively warm to some.

MONDAY will then see this rain clearing away with a slightly fresher and less humid air mass with westerly breezes and some intervals of bright sunshine developing. Morning lows 14 to 18 C and afternoon highs 19 to 22 C.

TUESDAY will continue warm and dry for many especially the east and south, as a more significant front develops near the west coast and moves slowly further inland during the afternoon. Sporadic outbreaks of rain will develop with a rather sharp temperature drop expected in western regions. Morning lows 13 to 17 C, afternoon highs will reach 20 to 23 C in the southeast and east but readings near 19 C will fall to mid-teens in the west.

WEDNESDAY will have variable amounts of cloud, northerly breezes and some outbreaks of light rain possible, but heavy rain will form over France along the stalled out front and that rain will spread into parts of Britain where 20 to 40 mm amounts are possible. Ireland will likely see much less than that and some parts of the southeast may remain dry. Lows near 8 C and highs near 18 C in the south, 14 C in the north.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY look like being quite cool days with scattered outbreaks of light rain in rather variable north to northeast winds, but with the tendency being for more rain to fall in the north than elsewhere, and the southeast could remain largely dry. Lows each day 6 to 9 C and highs 13 to 17 C.

SATURDAY (19th) will become overcast with rain becoming heavy at times and moving into all regions (this is a day beyond the scope of the "trends" forecast above). Amounts of 10-25 mm are projected for this front with strong and gusty south to southwest winds veering westerly, temperatures in the 15-18 C range.

Even cooler air is expected to flow in from the northwest after that front passes by Sunday and Monday (20th-21st) and temperatures could be back into the near-record cool category by then (similar to some parts of May). A conservative estimate would be lows of 5-7 C and highs of 13-16 C. Some places might see lower readings than that. So as I was mentioning yesterday, it looks like quite a reversal in the weather regime over the space of about ten days.

My local weather was overcast and quite cool for mid-June, highs only around 15 C. Rain is moving in overnight and is expected to be fairly persistent for parts of the weekend here. Luckily if you are new to these forecasts, "here" is about eight time zones west of where you're most likely to be reading this, so enjoy your relatively good weather while it lasts.

M.T. Cranium · 13-06-2021 7:58am

Sunday, 13 June, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, slightly cooler after warmth today, then more significantly cooler after mid-week, it should all average out near normal. Rain will be spotty at first but will begin to cover more of the east late in the week, even so few places will get more than half of a normal weekly rainfall. Sunshine will be fairly close to normal with drier air masses not as full of low cloud as recent days. Winds sometimes rather moderate.

FORECASTS

TODAY will feature some very warm sunny intervals in parts of the east and south, with the inland southeast looking most likely to hit the highest readings around 24-25 C. Further north and west, more cloud likely, leading to some sporadic light rain later on, but rather warm and humid there, highs 19-22 C. Rainfalls where they occur only about 2 to 5 mm.

TONIGHT some further advance of the rain is likely into parts of the midlands and northeast, rather spotty showers late overnight in the south and east. It will be a muggy night with lows only dropping to about 17-18 C in many areas.

MONDAY will see the weak front moving on during the morning hours leading to a bright and less humid day with pleasant temperatures around 20 C. Moderate westerly winds likely.

TUESDAY will start out dry with a few sunny intervals in the east and south, but cloud will arrive by mid-morning in the west followed by outbreaks of light rain. Lows of 12-15 C will be followed by highs in the 21-23 C range in parts of the east, near 20 C midlands, but falling back from 18 C to about 14 C in parts of the west as cooler air sets in there.

WEDNESDAY the cooling trend will advance into most other regions and there could be scattered outbreaks of light rain although guidance suggests largely dry in Ireland, as heavy rain will be more concentrated off to the southeast heading towards parts of Britain. It will be a fairly average temperature pattern with lows near 10 C and highs near 19 C in some parts of the east and south, 17 C north and west.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY look just a bit cooler but with some sunny breaks, isolated showers and winds turning more to the northeast as that disturbance over Britain deepens slowly and moves towards the North Sea. While they get some heavy rain in places, Ireland will only have scattered 1-3 mm amounts. Lows near 8 C and highs near 17 C both days.

SATURDAY is likely to become wet as an Atlantic front merges with another low moving north out of France. Some time around the weekend (19th-20th) there could be outbreaks of heavy and possibly thundery rainfall in the east if these fronts stall over that part of the country. Temperatures will be fairly steady night and day in the 13-16 C range.

SUNDAY this rain may continue or else end around mid-day with a slow clearance, in areas further west. Staying rather cool with highs 13-16 C.

The following week looks rather unsettled and cool for late June with highs generally around 15-18 C. That takes us to near the end of June when it could turn quite wet.

My local weather on Saturday was partly cloudy with heavy cloud buildups over local hills that looked capable of generating thunderstorms but these clouds remained rather inactive anyway with just a few raindrops locally, probably some heavier showers over higher terrain nearby. It was a bit warmer with the sunny start to the day allowing temperatures to reach 20 C before it clouded over.

Had a view of a very thin crescent moon this evening in the west-northwest at sunset, barely catching any sun on its lower right portion but the "earthshine" from the reflection off Greenland and other northern ice made the rest of the moon's globe quite easy to see against the twilight sky.

M.T. Cranium · 14-06-2021 7:58am

Monday, 14 June, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 14 to 20 June 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values with the trend gradually cooler.
-- Rainfall will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal values (possibly more if some guidance is correct, the uncertainty lies near the end of the forecast interval).
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.
-- Generally light to moderate westerly winds turning more northerly at times.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be less humid and somewhat cooler with partly cloudy skies -- a few showers are possible although the most active front has moved through overnight (and it wasn't very active). Moderate west-southwest breezes, highs 18 to 20 C in the south and east, 14 to 17 C west and north.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast with lows around 10 C.

TUESDAY will start out bright and quite warm again in the east, as highs reach 21 C or perhaps a bit higher in some places. A front will be moving into the western half of the country with occasional rain likely, 3 to 7 mm amounts are expected. Highs further west 16 to 19 C.

WEDNESDAY will become slightly cooler again with a mixture of cloud and sunshine, and isolated showers likely, with winds turning westerly at about 40 to 60 km/hr, perhaps stronger at times in the vicinity of Donegal Bay. Lows about 9 C and highs about 16 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will be partly cloudy and reasonably pleasant days with some sunshine and temperatures in the range of 15 to 18 C. It could be a bit warmer in parts of west Munster due to a northeast wind flow coming in from the land for a change. Valentia may be above 20 C in this sort of pattern.

By next weekend, we have a choice of outlooks depending on which guidance you take. The American GFS model had been showing a strong frontal system coming in for several days now, but has changed that outlook this morning as they now show the wedge of high pressure staying stronger and deflecting most of that front to the south, which would have the effect of continuing the partly cloudy spell with northeast winds turning more to the east. This would be a rather cool pattern for Leinster and a bit warmer further west (14 to 18 C). The European model is still going for a more vigorous frontal system that would bring considerable rainfall and mostly cloudy, increasingly cool weather in the weekend interval. Can't say that I have any strong hunch which model will prove more accurate with this, hopefully they will agree with each other on some solution by tomorrow. The outlook for the week beyond next weekend remains rather cool and unsettled in any case.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny and quite warm with highs reaching 28 C. Some scattered thunderstorms formed in this southerly flow, most of them have been off in various directions over higher ground, and there has been frequent lightning from a cell about 30 kms to our north in the past hour. We got a very slight rainfall earlier from the fringes of one of these storms. Superheated desert air has spread out across much of the western interior U.S. states (record highs in Arizona on Sunday near 45 C) and that hot air is heading more into the prairies and plains states for most of the week; we will stay in the hot air for a couple of days then find ourselves in a more pleasant Pacific high pushing in when the ridge moves east. We could get some heavier thunderstorms the next two days out of this situation too.

M.T. Cranium · 15-06-2021 8:01am

Tuesday, 15 June, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 15 to 21 June 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average about 1 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.
-- Winds will be generally rather light, sometimes more moderate around late Saturday and early Sunday.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out dry and bright in some parts of the east with cloud increasing later this morning, otherwise a mainly cloudy day for most regions further west, with rain pushing in gradually, reaching most regions by later this afternoon, but amounts while moderate in the north (5-10 mm) are expected to be rather slight across much of the south (2-5 mm at most). Highs will range from 17 C in the west to 22 C in the east.

TONIGHT the rain will continue to fragment to showers while moving east, and most places will become dry again before sunrise, with lows of about 10 C.

WEDNESDAY will be a rather cloudy day with some sunny breaks, occasional light rain more frequent in parts of the east during the morning, but not much accumulation, and somewhat cooler with highs only 14 to 17 C.

THURSDAY will be cloudy with sunny intervals and isolated showers, cool with lows near 7 C and highs near 16 C.

FRIDAY may see more sunshine than cloud, with light winds and lows of 7 C, highs near 18 C.

SATURDAY will bring increasing cloud and rain by afternoon or evening in most regions (an earlier start to the rain is likely for the west coast), lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C. Some moderate southerly winds will set in during this rainfall, 40 to 60 km/hr.

SUNDAY will be cloudy with showers, brisk west to northwest winds developing, and lows near 10 C, highs 14 to 16 C.

The outlook for the following week is generally rather cool and unsettled. Throughout both weeks of the forecast, there would likely be heavier rainfalls in parts of Britain as lows move in there from France, with the southeast at risk of localized flooding.

My local weather on Monday was sunny and hot again with highs near 30 C. A few thunderstorms have once again developed in the evening portion of the day and one just rumbled past while I was typing this up. It seems to have dissipated now though. A second tropical storm (Bill) has developed north of Bermuda, but is not predicted to have much of an impact before it also dissipates.

M.T. Cranium · 16-06-2021 7:21am

Wednesday, 16 June, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 16 to 22 June, 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfalls will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal, mostly around Sunday.
-- Sunshine will average 50 per cent of normal values.
-- Winds will continue rather light to moderate.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy in the east, to partly cloudy in the west, and there will be a few light showers giving small amounts (1-3 mm) of rain in the east. Winds will be moderate southwest to west, tending to become more variable later in the day. Cool with highs only 14 to 17 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast with a few isolated showers, lows near 7 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with showers, one or two becoming rather heavy in the inland west and midlands. Highs near 16 C.

FRIDAY will see more sunshine than cloud in most areas, and after lows of 5 to 8 C there will be highs 16 to 19 C.

SATURDAY will bring increasing cloud, as a disturbance from the west approaches slowly and more cloud with rain embedded moves up from the south to merge with that weak system. Rain will probably hold off until late afternoon or evening in all but a few south coastal locations where mid-day could see its onset, and this rain won't be very heavy anywhere until possibly Sunday in a few spots. Lows on Saturday near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

SUNDAY will be cloudy with a few breaks most likely near the west coast and in Donegal. Rain will spread in from the south and east during the early morning hours but will turn rather showery, as heavier amounts stay mostly over Britain where the low will be tracking north. Lows near 12 C and highs 14 to 16 C. About 10-15 mm rainfalls are possible but not in all locations.

MONDAY will see the remnants of this rain becoming quite showery and dispersed with a rather chilly northerly breeze developing, lows near 9 C and highs near 15 C.

Most of the following week looks unseasonably cool with rain at times, with winds between northerly and easterly at various points in time; highs will stay in the mid-teens possibly breaking to around 18 C on any brighter days.

My local weather on Tuesday turned cooler in stages with about 10-15 mm rain in the overnight hours and a few more brief showers in the daytime, although dry most of the time, with highs reaching about 20 C. The heat we had has moved east of the Rockies now where highs reached 38-40 C in parts of Montana and Saskatchewan, with some severe storms in Alberta.

M.T. Cranium · 17-06-2021 7:33am

Thursday, 17 June, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 17 to 23 June, 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.
-- Winds generally rather light through the interval.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out sunny in some central and eastern counties, turning cloudier by afternoon, with isolated showers developing and highs 16 to 18 C. Further west, more frequent showers will develop more rapidly this morning, and one or two may turn locally heavy but overall about 3-5 mm rainfalls are expected in the west, with highs near 17 C.

TONIGHT will feature some clear intervals and it will turn quite cool with lows only 4 to 7 C. Patches of mist or fog will develop in low-lying areas inland.

FRIDAY will bring a mixture of sunshine and cloud, with light breezes and highs 17 to 19 C.

SATURDAY will see increasing cloud in the east, overcast skies in the west, and a gradual onset of light rain which may only extend as far inland as the midlands by late in the day from both the west coast and the south coast, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

SUNDAY will bring intervals of rain, heavier in the southeast than most other places, with 5-15 mm potential across the country, and it will remain rather cool with lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

MONDAY will see the gradual end of this showery regime with winds turning more northerly, lows near 7 C and highs around 16 to 18 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY may bring a slight improvement to partly cloudy skies and only isolated showers with highs still around 18 C. Later in the week, more showers are likely and stronger westerly to northwesterly breezes will develop, with a slight drop in the temperature to around the mid-teens again.

This pattern seems fairly locked in and there is no real sign of any return to warmer weather as we saw last week when temperatures were above normal for a spell. Just for your interest, the summer solstice this year is timed for 0432h IST on Monday 21st (according to the timeanddate.com website). That would be just around sunrise on Monday. In my time zone it will be late Sunday 20th. My local weather on Wednesday remained cloudy and rather cool with passing showers in the vicinity, although dry most of the time, with a high near 17 C.

M.T. Cranium · 18-06-2021 7:27am

Friday, 18 June, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 18 to 24 June 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average about 2 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal, heaviest in the east and southeast, also some parts of east Ulster.
-- Sunshine will average about 75 per cent of normal despite fairly good sunshine today, as cloud will dominate for several days starting tomorrow.
-- Winds will continue rather light most of the time.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly sunny, with patchy higher cloud near the west coast. After a cool start (it was as low as 2 deg at Mountdillon in Roscommon early this morning) highs will reach about 18 C. Light winds should make this quite a pleasant day.

TONIGHT will continue clear to partly cloudy in parts of Leinster and Ulster with lows dropping back to 4-7 C. More cloud will be present in Connacht and Munster with lows 6-9 C.

SATURDAY will see a gradual increase in cloud cover in all regions, with light rain by late afternoon or evening near the west coast. Highs 16 to 18 C.

SUNDAY rain will spread in from the south and some parts of the inland southeast may see heavy rainfalls at times with embedded thunderstorms possible, 15-25 mm rainfalls in a few places. Other parts of the country will have more widely scattered showers with 5-10 mm amounts more general. Lows 10 to 12 C and highs 15 to 17 C.

MONDAY the showers will continue before dying out during the afternoon with clearing by evening. Lows near 10 C and highs 15 to 17 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY are looking more settled with some sunshine each day and near average temperatures, lows near 8 C and highs near 20 C.

Showers will return to the picture by about Thursday with several unsettled days and temperatures around 18 C.

My local weather was pleasant, with sunshine and highs near 24 C. We are thankfully not in the very hot air mass that covers most of the southwestern U.S. and parts of the central plains states. Palm Springs, CA had an all-time record tying 123 F (which is about 50.6 C). Phoenix was up to 118 F (48C) breaking a long-standing daily record, and most other parts of the desert southwest were similarly hot. Sea breezes are keeping the California coast more moderate, with some fog near the coast (the U.S. Open golf near San Diego had delays due to fog early on Thursday). This hot spell seems destined to continue for a while, but it fails to reach most of the eastern half of the continent which has remained near or slightly below June normals. A third potential tropical storm has formed in the Gulf of Mexico, but has not received a name yet.

M.T. Cranium · 19-06-2021 7:30am

Saturday, 19 June, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 19 to 25 June, 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average about 1 degree below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average about 50 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will average 50-75 per cent of normal.
-- Wind speeds will remain generally light.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals. Some light rain will brush a few parts of the west coast from time to time, accumulations of only about 1 mm expected there, most other locations will remain dry. Highs 16 to 18 C.

TONIGHT will be cloudy with a few outbreaks of light rain or drizzle, heavier near the southeast coast towards morning. Lows 8 to 10 C.

SUNDAY will be mostly cloudy with a few afternoon sunny breaks, and scattered outbreaks of light rain, now only expected to be 5-10 mm at the most. Highs near 17 C.

MONDAY will remain cloudy over parts of the south and east with a few more intervals of light rain in the southeast coastal counties, but clearing there later in the day; the rest of the country should be dry and partly cloudy to sunny further north, lows near 7 C and highs near 17 C.

TUESDAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 16 to 21 C.

WEDNESDAY will bring increasing cloud, some guidance shows rain arriving, but there is uncertainty on timing, it could be delayed to Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Lows near 8 C and highs near 18 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY look rather unsettled with a few showers, highs near 17 C.

The latest guidance shows some signs of an easterly flow developing after that weak disturbance moves further south, which would replace any cooling trend with more of a seasonable dry interval with pleasant temperatures near 20 C. Hoping this trend will dig in and cooler air stays up north.

My local weather on Friday was sunny with increasing amounts of high cloud, quite warm at 25 C. The heat wave continues in the desert southwest with more records set again on Friday in the range of 47 to 49 C. The coast continues to be much cooler however with highs around southern California ranging from 20 C along the shore to about 30 C in suburbs further inland, then you get into the 40s across the hills into the desert regions.

M.T. Cranium · 20-06-2021 7:51am

Sunday, 20 June, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 20 to 26 June, 2021

-- Temperatures will be near normal values to 1 deg below normal.
-- Rainfall will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will be 50 to 75 per cent of normal.
-- Wind speeds will continue rather light most of the time.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with a few outbreaks of light rain. The most productive of these will start in Ulster and work southwest into Connacht during the afternoon. Earlier projections of rain in the southeast seem to have been somewhat overdone but there could be some scattered showers in any part of the country, amounts will range from 5-10 mm in the north to trace to 2 mm in most other areas. Highs near 16 C.

TONIGHT will remain rather cloudy with a few more light showers, lows near 10 C.

MONDAY will be cloudy with afternoon sunny intervals developing, highs near 18 C.

TUESDAY will start out sunny, then cloud will increase, and light rain will move into the north by late afternoon and evening. Lows 5 to 8 C and highs 17 to 20 C.

WEDNESDAY will start out with a few showers, mostly in Leinster and east Ulster, then some afternoon sunny intervals will develop, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C.

THURSDAY will bring some heavier showers and highs near 17 C.

The OUTLOOK is for partly cloudy and near seasonable weather conditions to return by the weekend, with a slight risk of showers in a few places. The current long-range guidance into July shows it turning rather cool at times around the second week of that month.

My local weather on Saturday was cloudy with a bit of sun getting through, and it was rather warm with a high near 25 C. We have a few showers around the area with a weak trough moving south but several days of warm and sunny weather are likely here once that moves past by mid-day Sunday. The heat wave continues over the southwestern U.S. with more near-record highs on Saturday. Death Valley CA which is below sea level has had readings above 51 C the past three days.

M.T. Cranium · 21-06-2021 6:43am

Monday, 21 June, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 21 to 27 June remain similar, temperatures just slightly below average for late June, rainfall may creep up fairly close to normal eventually, and sunshine for most will be a little less than normal although quite variable (as we saw on Sunday where Dublin had quite a long sunny stretch, not that far away it was cloudy much of the time).

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with some clearing developing from Ulster southward around mid-day. The remnants of a weak front will bring just a little more rain to a few parts of north Leinster and the midlands, amounts not expected to be much more than 1-2 mm. Highs around 17 C.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy then clear, and it will become rather chilly with lows 4 to 7 C.

TUESDAY will start out sunny and become cloudy by afternoon with rain across some parts of the north and then later central counties. Highs 18 to 20 C.

WEDNESDAY will see the last of that rain fragmenting to showers over Leinster then slow partial clearing will set in from the west this time, lows 8 to 10 C and highs 16 to 18 C.

THURSDAY will see more frequent showers and highs between 17 C and 19 C.

FRIDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with showers, and highs around 17 C.

The outlook for the weekend of 26-27 June is partly cloudy and near average for temperatures (18-20 C).

My local weather was sunny and very warm on Sunday with low humidity, highs around 30 C.

M.T. Cranium · 22-06-2021 7:21am

Tuesday, 22 June, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 22 to 28 June 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average about 1 deg below normal values.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will average near normal values.
-- Continued rather light winds most of the time.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out sunny, and it may remain that way in parts of the south, with a gradual increase in cloud across central counties, more rapidly overcast further north with light rain likely by late afternoon and evening there. Highs will range from 16 C in the north to 20 C in the south.

TONIGHT will be overcast with occasional rain in parts of the north spreading across most of Leinster towards midnight, amounts relatively small (2-5 mm) and lows 8 to 11 C.

WEDNESDAY will start out cloudy with a few showers lingering, then gradual clearing will set in, highs near 19 C.

THURSDAY will have increasing cloud with showers by afternoon and evening, about 5-8 mm of rain expected, lows near 10 C and highs near 19 C.

FRIDAY will be somewhat cooler with scattered showers, and winds turning to the northeast at 30-50 km/hr. Lows near 8 C and highs near 17 C.

The WEEKEND OUTLOOK is somewhat uncertain, with guidance splitting into two camps, one saying that high pressure will push in close enough to give a largely dry weekend with near normal temperatures, but another thought is that the unsettled weather from Friday will linger especially across parts of the south. We'll see if this choice is settled in tomorrow morning's outlook. Temperatures in either case would be somewhere around 18-20 C.

The end of the month and early July are looking fairly average with occasional rain but amounts not more than average for the period, and some settled days in between fronts, temperatures generally near 20 C for daytime highs.

My local weather has turned hot again with highs near 34 C on Monday.

M.T. Cranium · 23-06-2021 7:29am

Wednesday, 23 June, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 23 to 29 June 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal and perhaps slightly above normal in some eastern counties.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.
-- Sunshine will average near normal amounts.
-- Winds speeds although generally light will sometimes be more moderate in western counties in particular.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out quite cloudy with some further showers likely in Leinster and east Ulster. This rainfall will eventually total around 5-10 mm and will end with drizzly intervals mid-day followed by partial clearing, a trend which will develop a lot earlier further west. Highs near 20 C where sun breaks through, 17-18 C under more persistent cloud.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy with some longer clear intervals giving a good view of the full moon. Lows will be around 7 C.

THURSDAY will see increasing cloud leading to outbreaks of light rain more persistent in the north (5-10 mm expected there). Highs will vary from 17 C in the north to 21 C in the south.

FRIDAY will turn cooler with a few showers in a moderate at times brisk northeast breeze (40-60 km/hr). Lows near 9 C and highs near 17 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with a few showers, less windy but similar temperatures to Friday, lows around 10 C and highs around 17 or 18 C.

SUNDAY is not guaranteed to be dry but the odds seem to be tilting more towards a fairly good outcome with only isolated showers in a northeast wind flow, partly cloudy skies, lows near 8 C and highs near 20 C except a bit cooler in the north and near the east coast.

The uncertainty about next week has also shifted a bit more towards a settled outcome with fairly good temperatures near or a little above seasonal averages which would mean highs reaching the low 20s. However the uncertainty has not really gone away and this may tilt back in some other direction before much confidence can be attached to next week's outlook.

Similarly, early July now looks a bit better in general than was indicated a day or so previously.

My local weather is turning into a very hot spell breaking records in this region, what we often get in late July or early August here has already settled in and we had another sunny, hot and dry day on Tuesday with a high near 32 degrees. Forecasts are indicating values closer to 40 C by the weekend. This may be too much information but I don't have that many more items of clothing to discard at this point.

M.T. Cranium · 24-06-2021 7:14am

Thursday, 24 June, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 24 to 30 June --

-- Temperatures will average near normal or slightly above in some eastern counties.
-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.
-- Sunshine will average 75 to 100 per cent of normal.
-- Wind speeds will increase to moderate at times on Friday then fall back into the recently prevailing light range.

FORECASTS

TODAY will feature some warm, sunny intervals in the south with highs 20-23 C. Cloudy for most of the day in the north, rain developing afternoon and evening, spreading as far south as central counties by end of the day. Highs in the north 17-19 C. Rainfalls there of about 5-10 mm.

TONIGHT will be overcast with showers, lows 8 to 12 C.

FRIDAY will turn cooler with winds north to northeast 40-60 km/hr. Highs near 17 C. Showers will be fairly widespread especially in the east, 5-10 mm amounts expected.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy with showers more isolated to the southeast, lows near 7 C and highs near 18 C.

SUNDAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals, risk of a few isolated showers in the southeast. Lows near 8 C and highs near 20 C.

MONDAY to about THURSDAY of next week are looking quite pleasant in general with a slight risk of showers but mostly dry weather expected, and at least some sunshine each day if not longer intervals in some parts. Highs will be around 21-24 C. Overnight lows will be 8 to 12 C.

After about FRIDAY (2nd of July) the pattern looks more unsettled with frequent showers and more cloud, temperatures falling back somewhat as a result.

My local weather stayed mostly sunny and hot on Wednesday with localized showers developing over the past few hours but no rain falling here, highs near 33 C. Our heat wave is now supposed to intensify to near all-time record warmth by the weekend.

M.T. Cranium · 25-06-2021 7:29am

Friday, 25 June, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 25 June to 1 July, 2021

-- Temperatures will be near normal in the north and west, to 1.0 deg above normal in the east.
-- Rainfalls will be slight, 25 per cent of normal for most areas.
-- Sunshine will be near average or even a bit above in some places.
-- Wind speeds will increase a little today but will then return to less blustery values over the weekend and next week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with a few isolated showers in east Ulster and Leinster, possibly a few other locations, but sunshine will be somewhat more generous in the west for a change (it has been quite a dull month in western counties so far, brighter in the east). Highs around 17 C with rather blustery northerly winds (sometimes backing to north-northeast near the Irish Sea coasts) of 40-60 km/hr.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with showers dying out, lows around 7 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny with better chances of full sunshine towards the west and north. Isolated showers may return to the southeast. Less windy although continued north to northeast in direction. Highs near 18 C.

SUNDAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals, and a bit warmer, lows near 8 C, highs near 20 C.

NEXT WEEK is looking quite good for most areas, while Britain sees a lot of cloud and (in the south mainly) rain from low pressure over northern France, Ireland should remain outside that system's influence most of the time with partly cloudy to sunny skies each day and rather light winds as high pressure won't be too far away to the west then overhead during the second half of the week. Highs each day should be around 21 to 23 C, nights will be seasonable with lows around 6 to 9 C.

Towards the weekend of 3-4 July this settled pattern may break down at least slightly with more cloud and the chance of showers, but even then it may remain at least partly cloudy rather than overcast.

My local weather was mostly sunny, breezy and very warm with highs near 30 C. It's only going to get hotter here each day for several days.

M.T. Cranium · 26-06-2021 7:14am

Saturday, 26 June, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week ahead (26 June to 2 July) look dry, rather sunny except perhaps near the south and east coasts where closer to average, and reasonably warm (within a degree of normal values). Light winds will prevail.

FORECASTS

TODAY ... The cloud and isolated showers of yesterday have moved off to the south but may continue to linger near the Wexford coast and spread at times along the south coast towards Cork. Most counties further north will probably stay at least partly sunny but an isolated shower cannot be ruled out although I expect almost all locations to remain dry away from the south coast where 1-3 mm seems most likely. Highs around 19 C for most, 16 C under the cloud.

TONIGHT ... Some lingering cloud near the south coast, otherwise partly cloudy to clear with a slight chance of an isolated shower, lows 7 to 10 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny, slight chance of an isolated shower, highs 19 to 21 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny, lows 7 to 10 C, highs 20 to 23 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny, lows 7 to 11 C, highs 19 to 22 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, scattered light showers more prevalent in eastern counties, a bit cooler due to the cloud and slight east wind flow, lows near 11 C and highs 17 to 20 C warmest in western counties.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY should be back to the same conditions as Monday-Tuesday with more sunshine and highs closer to 21 C. Some places could hit 22-24 C in west Munster and Connacht.

The trends after this generally dry spell will be gradually in the other direction towards more cloud and eventually more frequent rainfall as the Atlantic seems to get more involved into mid-July. Temperatures are likely to fall off a bit to the 17-19 C range.

My local weather continues to heat up, under scorching blue skies on Friday we hit 35 C here and 38 C in some valley locations in southern B.C. and our forecast calls for an increase of 3-5 more degrees with that heat persisting for most of the coming week. At least we don't have high humidity with our heat waves although it feels oppressively hot even at this late hour, having cooled off only to 24 C so far.

If you get a chance to look at clear skies tonight in Ireland, you'll find the Moon (recently full) approaching Saturn (I am seeing it rising ahead of Saturn now) with brighter Jupiter rising in the southeast after midnight. The Moon would then be approaching Jupiter in the sky by Monday night. I have been looking around for any information about occultations but I think the Moon has just finished a set of those (moving in front of the planets from our perspective) and will just be making close approaches to them in these summer and autumn good viewing opportunities. We pass Saturn on 2nd August and Jupiter on 20th August, which means that the August full moon will be very close to Jupiter in the sky at that time (full moons this summer are on 24 July 0238h and 22 Aug 1203h (add one hour for IST)). The July full moon night of 23-24 July will be approaching Saturn and in my time zone passing it towards morning twilight.

The best views of this would be around 0030 to 0200h although you would likely see at least the moon if not also Saturn rising after 11 p.m. Because the Moon is getting closer to its declination maximum range (2024) the summer full moons are now running quite low in the sky, and by 2024 will be even slightly lower at the southern transit point, lower by 5 deg than the mid-winter sun would appear (currently more like 2 deg lower). This effect is probably more noticeable in Ulster with the higher latitudes there.

M.T. Cranium · 27-06-2021 7:29am

Sunday, 27 June, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, mostly dry, near normal temperatures, and average amounts of sunshine.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring a mixture of cloud and sunshine, the cloud a bit more prevalent near the Irish Sea coasts and inland as far as the midlands, sunshine likely to reach a maximum in west Munster and some parts of Connacht. Northeast breezes will continue so highs will reach about 21 C further west, 17 C near the east coast. Showers will not be widespread, if any occur they will most likely be near the Wicklow and Slieve Bloom mountains.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with lows 7 to 10 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny, rather similar to today, perhaps a degree or two warmer with a range of highs from 19 C east to 23 C west.

TUESDAY will continue partly cloudy to sunny with a similar temperature range and isolated showers. (lows 7-10 C and highs 19-23 C).

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will likely have somewhat more active shower outbreaks in the inland south mainly, as a weak frontal zone develops due to the push south of a slightly cooler high pressure centre. Although this activity is expected to be hit or miss, a few locations could see 5-10 mm brief downpours, most likely to be about 30-50 kms inland from the south coast across Cork, south Limerick, south Tipps and north Waterford. Otherwise many areas will stay dry with some sunshine each day, lows 8 to 12 C and highs 18 to 22 C.

By FRIDAY a more organized disturbance may develop and end this dry spell for larger portions of the country, although more in the south than further north, and temperatures will remain similar.

From the weekend of 3-4 July on, the pattern looks a little more unsettled although changes week to week may be rather subtle, the overall tendency looks like a cooler and wetter theme into mid-July.

My local weather has turned almost dangerously hot, at my location the maximum was 38 C and several other places in British Columbia (as well as most of Washington and Oregon states) were above 40 C. This is expected to persist for a few days now and even when it breaks down around Friday 2nd, the "cooling" will only be back to the low 30s.

The skies are clear with scattered small cumulus, no thunderstorms developing in this superheated air mass yet, if they do later in the spell, a severe forest fire situation could develop as said storms would probably be rather sporadic rain producers and widespread lightning their main feature. Rather fearing the outcome here as the forests have dried out in this unusually hot and dry second half of June. No major fires to report anywhere yet though, but all it would take is an unattended campfire and since everyone has taken to the lakes and campgrounds, that seems almost inevitable. Heading out now to watch the moon and Saturn rising over nearby hills. Maybe you caught them earlier in the past night, tonight the Moon will be passing near Jupiter but that will be visible only after about 0100h local times around the northern hemisphere.

M.T. Cranium · 28-06-2021 7:46am

Monday, 28 June, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 28 June to 4 July 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal or slightly below in some places.
-- Rainfall will start to return to the picture around Friday 2nd and in the balance of the week it may add up to perhaps 25 to 50 per cent of normal values.
-- Sunshine will be 75 per cent of normal on average but could reach normal totals in some parts of the north and west.
-- Generally light winds can be expected, occasionally moderate.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy at first in parts of the east and south, partly cloudy with sunny intervals increasing in duration in the west and north. Later on there will be at least partial breaks in the cloud for the east and south too. An isolated shower cannot be ruled out in parts of the inland south. Highs 17 to 20 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy, lows near 8 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny with highs 18 to 21 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will be partly cloudy, and there will be isolated showers both days although most places should remain dry, lows near 8 C and highs near 20 C.

FRIDAY will bring increasing cloud and showers or intervals of rain with 5-10 mm rainfalls possible. Lows near 9 C and highs near 19 C.

The outlook for next weekend is unsettled although it could turn out reasonably good as showers may be fairly brief and isolated. Temperatures will remain close to normal values.

My local weather did something that one can only report about every 84 years, which is to break the all-time Canadian heat record -- not exactly at my location although we were close enough -- a place called Lillooet BC appears to have reached 46 C, we had to "settle" for 42 C locally. It has cooled off to about 26 C at midnight which may feel refreshing, about to find out. This is supposed to go on for about another five days according to most guidance. The eastern half of North America is under a more normal weather pattern with temperatures around 25 to 30 C in most places there. With us getting this heat, some places further south are seeing unusually cool mid-summer conditions, a few places in Colorado failed to break 15 C on Sunday and it was only around 25 C in the normally scorching hot Utah back country where this weather actually belongs.

M.T. Cranium · 29-06-2021 7:35am

Tuesday, 29 June, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 29 June to 5 July 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal to perhaps 1 deg above normal in some eastern counties.
-- Rainfalls will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.
-- Sunshine will average near normal, although a few spots in the west and north could run slightly below average.
-- Generally quite light wind speeds until the weekend, then somewhat more moderate at times.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy on average, more sunshine to the east and south, more persistent cloud this morning in parts of the north and west. Some light drizzle possible in this morning cloudiness, but brighter spells likely by afternoon. Highs near 18 C under more persistent cloud, to 23 C where sunshine most frequent.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy to clear at times, with fog patches forming, lows 8 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny and rather warm in many places, highs reaching 21 to 24 degrees. The overnight low Thursday morning will be around 8 to 10 C.

FRIDAY will bring increasing cloud and rain by late afternoon or evening, 5 to 10 mm expected, lows near 12 C and highs near 19 C in the west to 22 C in the east.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with occasional showers, but also some brighter intervals, lows around 12 C and highs around 18 to 20 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with showers, lows near 12 C and highs near 19 C.

NEXT WEEK is looking more unsettled with somewhat cooler temperatures and highs closer to 18-20 C.

My local weather remains extremely hot, more all-time records were set all over this region on Monday and the high locally was 42 C under slightly hazy blue skies. Except for a few days that I've been in the desert southwest in the summer, this is probably the hottest weather I've experienced, certainly in Canada because we just set a national record again for the second consecutive day (at another location in B.C., 48 C). If you're a weather buff, you'll know what this means, I am right under the "heat dome" of about 597 dm with thicknesses around 594 dm. Most of this region is elevated and a fair portion is above 1500 metres so the 850 mb temperatures around here can be just ground temperatures which at that elevation were around 35 C. My own elevation is more consistent with perhaps 900 mbs. Anyway, this is supposed to last a few more days then morph into something closer to our regional normal for early July, which will be a welcome development.

M.T. Cranium · 30-06-2021 7:25am

Wednesday, 30 June, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 30 June to 6 July 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, a little above at first, later on a bit below average by early next week.
-- Rainfalls will average 75 per cent of normal values.
-- Sunshine will also average about 75 per cent of normal.
-- Light winds until the weekend, then moderate southwesterlies at times.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with sunny intervals, and a few showers may develop inland from the south coast across Cork, Limerick, Tipps and Waterford mainly. Most other areas should remain dry. Highs 20 to 23 C.

TONIGHT will feature some clear intervals and lows near 10 C.

THURSDAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals and rather warm, highs 21 to 24 C.

FRIDAY will bring increasing cloud and lows of 12 C, highs near 19 C west, 22 C east. Rain will develop in west Munster late in the day.

SATURDAY will start out cloudy with showers, then some brighter intervals will develop, in moderate southwest winds 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows near 13 C and highs near 19 C.

SUNDAY will be mostly cloudy with occasional showers, lows near 13 C and highs near 18 C.

The pattern next week still looks rather unsettled and not as warm, highs generally 17 to 19 C.

My local weather has remained dangerously hot as more records were set all over the region on Tuesday. The high at the nearby weather station was 44 C which is another all-time record for that location. The severe heat covers almost all of the northwestern U.S. but some relief began to show up near the coasts as marine layers pushed inland about 50 miles, reducing the severe heat to more ordinary late June warmth. Also the severe heat has spread into Montana and Alberta as the heat dome spreads out. It will gradually deflate but we won't see much change in the weather as heat somewhat closer to normal replaces this extreme variety by the coming weekend (so highs closer to the mid 30s instead of the mid 40s). News reports mention excess deaths due to heat prostration in the hundreds or low thousands across the entire region (including the U.S. portion). Most weather weenies seem to think this is the biggest heat wave event since the 1936 heat wave that set all-time records in two thirds of U.S. states and across south central Canada. With one or two exceptions, that famous heat wave did not reach levels that our current monster has managed to do. Canada has a new record high for the third consecutive day, this one an astounding 49.5 C which is 121 F. Only Palm Springs CA (of the major weather stations in the southwest U.S.) beat that in the recent hot spell down south.

Be thankful you live in a place with a moderate climate.

M.T. Cranium · 01-07-2021 8:01am

Thursday, 1 July, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 1 to 7 July 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, warm at first, a little below normal towards the end.
-- Rainfalls will average 75 to 100 per cent of normal values.
-- Sunshine will average 75 per cent of normal.
-- Winds generally light at first, will increase to moderate southwest at times.

FORECASTS

TODAY will feature some warm spells of hazy sunshine, more cloud likely in east Ulster and around some coastal areas of the west. Highs 21 to 24 C.

TONIGHT will be clear to partly cloudy, lows 11 to 14 C.

FRIDAY will bring increasing cloud with rain moving into west Munster by late afternoon and evening, rather warm and increasingly humid with highs 20 to 23 C.

SATURDAY the rain will move across most regions during the late overnight and morning hours (5-10 mm) followed by variable cloud and further showers, isolated thunderstorms, rather muggy with lows 13 to 16 C and highs 19 to 22 C.

SUNDAY will be cloudy with a few breaks, scattered thundery showers developing in a rather muggy air mass with lows near 14 C and highs near 21 C (closer to 18 C near some coasts where it may turn rather foggy at times).

MONDAY some pulses of heavier rain will move up from the south, lows near 14 C and highs near 20 C.

TUESDAY some further heavy showers likely, lows near 14 C and highs near 18 C.

The rest of next week appears somewhat cooler but less unsettled with only isolated showers in a slight northerly flow, lows around 12 C and highs around 18 C.

My local weather seems to be pretty well known by now, another sunny and extremely hot day locally with highs of 42 to 44 C, with a few thunderstorms developing further west starting a cycle that may become an even worse outcome with the potential for forest fires to spread (nothing within 150 kms of my location so far). This frontal zone is weak in terms of temperature change, once the marine layer dissipates on its way across the Cascades, there probably won't be very much cooling other than what might be produced from thunderstorm downdrafts and the gradual spread further inland of the heat dome, as records fell across Alberta and the southern fringes of the Northwest Territories on Wednesday.

M.T. Cranium · 02-07-2021 7:33am

Friday, 2 July, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 2 to 8 July 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, with the trend from 1-2 above normal to 1-2 below later.
-- Rainfalls could reach normal amounts in the south, to 50-75 per cent of normal in the north.
-- Sunshine will be around 50 to 75 per cent of normal in a rather cloudy scenario.
-- Winds will increase at times to moderate or the lower end of the "strong" range near the south coast.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be rather cloudy with a few breaks, and warm temperatures reaching 21 to 23 C in some places, closer to 19 C near the south and west coasts. Rain will develop this afternoon and evening, mostly in west Munster at first although a separate frontal zone across south Ulster may produce some light rain too.

TONIGHT the rain will move through other regions, with 5-10 mm generally, and muggy lows near 14 C.

SATURDAY will be cloudy with afternoon sunny breaks, and the morning rain will fragment to showers becoming more isolated for most areas, with risk of localized thunderstorms developing in the midlands. Rather warm and muggy with highs 19 to 22 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Lows near 14 C and highs 18 to 21 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy at first, then overcast, as rain develops in the south by late afternoon and evening, with an interval of strong, gusty east to southeast winds and heavy squalls of rain likely overnight into Tuesday morning. Temperatures steady near 16 C.

TUESDAY will bring a gradual end to this unsettled weather as the low responsible moves through Ireland and off towards Scotland by afternoon, leaving a partly cloudy and cooler northwest flow in its wake. Highs near 17 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY appear likely to remain a bit cooler than average for early July, with lows near 9 C and highs near 17 C, partly cloudy skies with isolated showers.

The pattern beyond that looks rather variable with some warm days in the mix, some unsettled days with locally heavy showers, a fairly typical July scenario with temperatures either near normal or somewhat above normal at times. This leads to the monthly outlook which is a mixed bag of different weather patterns, a bit of everything likely during the month, all coming out to near average overall. If there are departures from normal, they are more likely to be wetter than average and perhaps slightly warmer. Sunshine will be under some pressure to reach normal totals although here again the mix will include some cloudy days and some sunny days.

My local weather situation has improved slightly with a weak cool front passing at the present time; this sparked off some thunderstorms further north but we had nothing of that here, just patchy cloud that increased to a mostly cloudy sky at sunset. The heat remained in place earlier and the high on Thursday was close to 41 C. It seems likely that this severe heat will ease now and we'll have highs in the low to mid 30s for about five days and possibly a cooler turn after that which will be quite welcome. The more severe heat has moved into most of the Canadian prairies and a few parts of Montana and western North Dakota. The northern limit of this heat was unusually far north and reached a few locations north of 60 deg latitude, including Fort Smith in the Northwest Territories which got to 40 C. A more moderate warm air mass divided that heat from the modified arctic air which remained in place near the arctic islands and the far northern mainland, so that around Great Slave Lake it was near 28 C which is not all that unusual in the summer.

Meanwhile Tropical Storm Elsa is bearing down on the Lesser Antilles and will be moving through the northern Caribbean for several days then crossing Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico near Florida by next week. It is expected to be near hurricane strength at times, and could move through the inland southeastern states and up the eastern seaboard towards eastern Canada, but so far there are no indications of a severe hurricane forming.

M.T. Cranium · 03-07-2021 8:22am

Saturday, 3 July, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 3 to 9 July 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average slightly above normal values with just the middle portions of next week falling a degree or two below average, nights will be more likely to register above normal than daytimes.
-- Rainfall will average near normal in the south, to about 50 per cent of normal in the northwest.
-- Sunshine will average about 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.
-- Winds will increase at times to moderate with an interval of strong winds expected Monday night near the south coast but not too likely to make progress inland.

FORECASTS

TODAY will become partly cloudy, warm and humid with a few scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Some heavy downpours are possible in a few places, most likely the midlands. Highs 20 to 23 C.

TONIGHT will be muggy with occasional showers, lows 13 to 15 C.

SUNDAY will be cloudy with a few sunny intervals, and widespread thundery showers may develop around mid-day lasting through part of the afternoon. Once again, the midlands may see the heaviest downpours. Weekend total rainfalls will be quite variable with 10 mm being a likely average value, some places below that and some quite a bit above. Highs for Sunday around 18 to 21 C.

MONDAY will start out dry with some brighter intervals lasting longer into the mid-day period further north, as cloud followed by rain advance into the south. By evening it could become quite windy across the south (southeast 50 to 70 km/hr) with a band of heavy thundery showers moving into the south coastal counties. Lows near 14 C and highs near 19 C.

TUESDAY the rain from the south coast will move up the east coast during the early morning to mid-day hours while other regions see a gradual clearance from the northwest, with somewhat cooler and less humid conditions that will reach Leinster by afternoon. Lows near 15 C and highs 18 to 20 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy and rather cool with isolated showers, lows near 8 C and highs near 17 C.

THURSDAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals, lows near 8 C and highs 18 to 20 C.

FRIDAY will bring increasing cloud and evening showers, stronger southwest winds arriving with the rain, and highs near 22 C.

NEXT WEEKEND looks fairly similar to this weekend, with bands of showers and temperatures near average. From then on as mentioned yesterday the weather pattern looks to be a mixture of warm days and unsettled intervals with temperatures closer to normal then, a few days could be reaching the mid-20s temperature range.

Where I live, we would love to have it cool down to the high 20s, which it has done in some places further north and closer to the coast. We're still in quite a hot and dry air mass here, after a day of sunshine locally and scattered thunderstorms to our north, making no progress towards us. Went on a road trip to the next valley west of us (Grand Forks) where it was also hot but some smoke is drifting in there from fires in the U.S., nothing too serious that they expect to have under control over the weekend. Our high on Friday was 37 C which was just a fraction cooler than the severe portion of the heat wave. We're expecting a day of scattered thunderstorms and highs in the low 30s on both days of the weekend here but no organized push of cooler air. The core of the severe heat has moved as far east as Saskatchewan now, but the phenomenon seems to be slowly receding back to something closer to a typical summer hot spell as time goes by. Meanwhile, Elsa became a cat-1 hurricane on Friday and is brushing past Haiti to the south, and Jamaica to the north, on its way to an eventual crossing of central to western Cuba and in possibly weakened form another landfall in the Florida panhandle by middle of next week. Remnants of Elsa could move up the east coast of the U.S. and dissipate around eastern Canada in about a week to ten days.

M.T. Cranium · 04-07-2021 8:59am

Sunday, 4 July, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 4 to 10 July, 2021

-- Temperatures will average near normal to about 1.0 deg above normal values.
-- Rainfall will average near normal in the south, to 50 per cent of normal in the northwest, other regions about 75 per cent of normal.
-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal values.
-- Winds will be moderately fresh at times, with a few stronger intervals near the south coast late Monday.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few breaks, and another round of thundery showers likely for parts of the central and northern counties by mid-day and afternoon. A few locally heavy downpours can be expected there. Highs 18 to 21 deg C.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy with showers more isolated, lows around 13 C.

MONDAY will have variable cloudiness with a few showers, but intervals of heavier rain in the south by evening as winds there increase to southeast 50-70 km/hr. Highs near 19 C.

TUESDAY the rain will push through parts of the southeast in the late overnight hours with some clearing, followed by another interval of rain later towards mid-day, and another more widespread clearing trend by afternoon. Breezy with lows near 14 C and highs near 18 C.

WEDNESDAY will become partly cloudy with a few showers, northwest breezes, and lows near 12 C, highs 17 to 19 C.

THURSDAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals, lows near 8 C and highs 20 to 23 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with increasing cloud later, lows near 8 C and highs 19 to 22 C.

NEXT WEEKEND looks rather unsettled again with showers and moderate westerly winds, highs near 19 C.

The pattern for the following week is rather variable with a few dry days in the mix but also a few more showery days as fronts pass through, temperatures either near normal or slightly above normal at times.

My local weather on Saturday remained mostly sunny and hot with a high near 35 C, with a buildup of cloud and scattered thunderstorms a few miles further north holding temperatures down to about 28 C there, which we investigated during a search for good swimming opportunities, but the brief rounds of storm activity were rather sporadic and a smoky haze there made it difficult to see much cloud structure. Since midnight that area of storms has edged close enough to here that we are getting some wind gusts and a slightly cooler feel. No lightning observed so the cells must be weakening gradually. But we do expect them to redevelop over us later today.

M.T. Cranium · 05-07-2021 7:27am

Monday, 5 July, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 5 to 11 July 2021

-- Temperatures will average near normal values.

-- Rainfall will average 75 to 100 per cent of normal, eventually it should be similar in most regions.

-- Sunshine will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal.

-- Wind speeds will continue light to moderate.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with some brighter intervals, these more frequent in the south central counties. A few showers are likely and steadier rain will develop in parts of the northwest. Highs for most around 18 or 19 C, a few degrees cooler however in Donegal and parts of north and west Ulster.

TONIGHT rain will spread gradually through the west and then across the south, more showery further east and north. Amounts of 5-10 mm are likely in some areas. Lows near 14 C.

TUESDAY will be cloudy with a few afternoon sunny intervals, as rain tapers off to showers across Leinster and east Munster, with just isolated showers likely elsewhere. Highs 16 to 18 C.

WEDNESDAY will bring variable amounts of cloud with a few showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 17 C.

THURSDAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals, showers developing across the west late in the day. Lows near 8 C and highs near 21 C.

FRIDAY will be overcast with light rain or drizzle at times, rather foggy or misty over hills and near some coasts. Lows near 10 C and highs 15 to 18 C.

NEXT WEEKEND will be partly cloudy both days, with showers likely, highs near 20 C.

The pattern for the following week looks like a very similar outcome with further showers at times, but temperatures not far from July normal values.

My local weather remained sunny and hot with a lot of cloud just to our north, and a few rumbles of thunder but nothing very active developed locally. Temperatures with the sunshine continued to peak around 35 C but it was only around 26-28 C in the cloudier areas (which we decided would work for us so we spent the day in that area). Clear and rather warm this evening locally, although cooling off nicely outside the town thanks to clear skies.

Elsa has been wavering between strong tropical storm and weak hurricane intensity on its trek through the northern Caribbean. Today it will begin to move inland into Cuba and end up in the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday, where it could restrengthen to cat-1 hurricane intensity before hitting western Florida. It's still expected to move up the eastern seaboard of the U.S. later in the week.

M.T. Cranium · 06-07-2021 8:08am

Tuesday, 6 July, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 6 to 12 July 2021 --

-- Temperatures will average about 1.0 deg below normal.
-- Rainfall will average about 25 per cent above normal.
-- Sunshine will average only 50 per cent of normal.
-- Winds generally light to moderate.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with some heavy rain showers moving further south from west Ulster through Connacht eventually spreading into the midlands and southeast. Amounts of 10-20 mm are expected. Highs 16 to 19 C.

TONIGHT will see this rain increasingly confined to the south, before ending as drizzle and fog by morning, with more isolated showers further north, lows near 12 C.

WEDNESDAY will have a rather cloudy start with showers, then intervals of cloud and sunshine by afternoon, a few isolated showers still around and highs near 19 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy with better sunshine than most days in this outlook, lows near 8 C and highs 20 to 23 C.

FRIDAY will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of light rain, humid with highs near 19 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with showers, highs near 21 C.

SUNDAY will be breezy and cooler with showers, highs near 18 C.

Most of next week will remain unsettled with temperatures generally around normal for July.

My local weather was mostly cloudy and still on the warm side with highs near 34 C. Some showers moved through the area but went just to our north so we have remained dry here. Meanwhile, tropical storm Elsa has moved across Cuba and is now heading in a more northwesterly direction towards the eastern Gulf of Mexico with a landfall in northwest Florida expected tonight or Wednesday morning.

M.T. Cranium · 15-07-2021 7:40am

Thursday, 15 July, 2021

Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 15-21 July 2021

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg above normal, the higher values in the midlands, south and east.

-- Rainfall will be slight if any falls at all.

-- Sunshine will vary from 75 per cent of normal in the cloudier west, to 125 per cent of normal in the sunny east.

-- Wind speeds will be very light and nights generally calm.

FORECASTS

Over the next week, conditions will be similar each day with regional differences so rather than repeating all those regional differences, it makes more sense to give the forecasts by regions ... this will apply to the period from today to mid-week (Wed 21st July).

EASTERN and CENTRAL counties will be partly to mostly sunny and very warm, with hazy nights prone to some local fog. Highs will be around 24 to 27 C each day and overnight lows in the range of 12 to 16 C.

SOUTHERN counties will be similar to the above especially inland from the coast, but sea breezes or local low cloud and fog could reduce temperatures near the coast to around 20 C. There would also be a slight risk of thundershowers forming by the weekend and early next week, rather isolated and brief, but with the potential for one or two locally heavy downpours, this most likely near higher terrain in the south central to southwestern counties.

WESTERN counties will also be quite warm, and the conditions indicated further east may extend fairly far west at times to within 10-30 miles of the Atlantic coast. Even closer to the coast, low cloud or mist may hold temperatures down closer to the 17-20 C range. However, that may only apply to some outer headlands as time goes on, with a reduction in the marine influence through the latter stages of the warm spell.

Further NORTH, expect more of a mix of cloud and sun and quite warm also, highs 22 to 26 C, lows 11 to 15 C. Coastal areas may have similar marine layer influences to the west coast.

Beyond 21st of July, this pattern is expected to break down gradually with an increase in cloud and showers or thunderstorms from the south, as light winds become moderate southeasterly. Eventually this process will allow the more normal summer weather patterns to redevelop with the Atlantic back in the picture by the final week of the month and some occasional rainfalls again.

While we were off-line, my weather remained sunny, hazy and hot. The only change has been an increase in forest fire smoke from blazes that are mostly in the range of 50 to 300 kms north to northwest of us, not really close but enough to reduce visibility on Wednesday to only 5 kms, with the highs for the past few days in the mid 30s, the heat is considerable but not quite as intense as the super heat wave we had during the Boards 1.0 era.

I didn't know this interruption was coming, or I would have let you know that these forecasts always appear (within a few minutes) on the facebook page of Irish Weather Online. Some of you may have known that or figured it out during the downtime.

M.T. Cranium · 16-07-2021 7:42am

Friday, 16 July, 2021 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain the same, very warm (2-4 deg above normal) and generally dry with near normal amounts of sunshine overall, perhaps more in the east and a bit less than average in the west, with light winds and local sea breezes prevalent.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out with some low cloud or mist near the east coast but this should give way to sunshine by late morning or earlier inland. It will then become partly cloudy to sunny and very warm in most areas by afternoon with a bit of marine cloud or sea fog near some coasts. Highs 24 to 27 C.

TONIGHT will be hazy and partly cloudy with lows only dropping slowly to reach 15 to 18 C.

The next five to seven days will be similar with either very warm or hot conditions depending on location and your tolerance for the combination of temperatures near 25 C (possibly a few degrees higher inland) and moderate humidity levels. There will be a slight increase in risk of local thundershowers in the inland south along sea breeze boundaries 20-40 kms inland from the coast, probably peaking around Sunday but this feature will be very localized, perhaps most likely in higher parts of the inland southwest.

This warm spell (you may hear heat wave although that seems a bit excessive for the actual conditions expected) will break down rather gradually late next week, with a band of showers and thunderstorms expected to move north into the country either late Thursday or early Friday 23rd. This may persist into part of the following weekend with a drop in temperatures to the low 20s. Another front is expected to follow in from the west and return temperatures to a more normal range of 18 to 21 C for the last week of the month, when more frequent showers are likely.

My local weather on Thursday remained sunny, hazy and hot with a high near 36 C. For a while the visibility improved as a southeasterly breeze pushed the smoke haze back towards its point of origin, but then winds turned back to the north and the smoke haze redeveloped towards evening. We have now had a remarkable thirty days of excessive heat here with the average maximum since mid-June at 37 C (normal maximum temperatures in early July are around 29 or 30 C).

M.T. Cranium · 17-07-2021 7:23am

Saturday, 17 July, 2021 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 17 to 23 July 2021

-- Temperatures will average 3 to 5 deg above normal values.

-- Rainfall will begin to return to the picture around Friday 23rd, and could amount to 10-15 mm in places.

-- Sunshine will be 25 to 50 per cent above normal values for most, perhaps closer to average in a few coastal areas of the west and north.

-- Very light winds during the day and calm at night most of this coming week.

FORECASTS

Just to continue on with the regional rather than daily theme, from now to about Thursday mostly sunny and very warm (some will be thinking hot) especially inland with highs each day 25 to 28 C, and overnight lows quite balmy too with readings only falling below 18 C towards sunrise (perhaps reaching 15 C briefly). Coastal areas will be somewhat cooler especially near the west coast and some parts of north Ulster. Sea fog will be out over the water and may not spread inland at all, but could be found on a few outer headlands. Sunday brings a slight risk of localized thunderstorms in west Munster, near higher terrain, and forming where a weak sea breeze boundary sets up a few miles north of Cork (city) to south Kerry.

By Thursday this pattern may begin to break down with increasing cloud in the south and slightly cooler temperatures as a southeast wind begins to blow at 30-50 km/hr. By Friday most guidance seems to favour a full breakdown of the warm spell / heat wave (as you wish) with a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms moving north. This has some potential to become heavy in Leinster and east Ulster, but we won't know too much about the specifics for a few days yet.

Once that breakdown occurs, the trend will be generally towards more unsettled and somewhat cooler weather with highs 19 to 23 C.

My local weather remained sunny and hot, with fairly good visibility most of the day. A weak front brought high cloud in the late afternoon and made for a colourful sunset with smoke layers embedded in the higher cloud moving in. This front was more active to the northeast of the Rockies towards Edmonton with some severe storms in that region. The other day a tornado hit in Barrie, Ontario, which happens to be the location of Ontario's most damaging historical tornado (May 31, 1985) but this one while damaging had a lower rating (EF2) and there were injuries but unlike the previous one, no deaths (eight people died in the 1985 storm, yours truly was living in another Ontario town further along the storm track and we hit our basement when the cell rolled in, the results there were minor wind damage and large hail).

Enjoy the weekend.

Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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