May 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

As mentioned, 06z GFS (from last night) is used to assess "normal" bonus answer from 552 dm thickness line which first impacts Ireland on 13th.

Hence this is the NormaL entry:

11.0 _ 24.5 _ -1.0 _ 100 _ 100 _ 13th

Table of forecasts for May 2021


FORECASTER ___ (pen) ____ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Next 21.2+


Danno __________________ 12.1 _ 23.6 _ -2.8 _ 120 _ 110 ___ 30th

Tae laidir ________________11.6 _ 25.0 _ -1.5 _ 118 _ 095 ___ 20th

Joe Public _______________ 11.5 _ 25.5 _ -1.5 _ 110 _ 099 ___ 15th

john mac ________________11.2 _ 23.9 _ -1.6 _ 103 _ 102 ___ 23rd

WesternStorm ____________11.1 _ 24.0 __ 0.0 _ 121 _ 092 ___ 10th

Dasa29 _________________ 11.0 _ 24.5 _ -2.0 _ 110 _ 110 ___ 20th


___ NormaL ______________11.0 _ 24.5 _ -1.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 13th


Jpmarn _________________ 10.9 _ 25.7 _ -2.5 _ 070 _ 120 ___ 13th

Kindred Spirit ____ (-1) ____ 10.9 _ 23.7 _ -1.4 _ 140 _ 095 ___ 18th

Mr stonewall _____________ 10.9 _ 23.2 _ -1.6 _ 115 _ 093 ___ 19th

M.T. Cranium ____________ 10.8 _ 24.7 _ -1.5 _ 150 _ 083 ___ 16th

Dacogawa _______________10.8 _ 24.7 _ -1.8 _ 142 _ 087 ___ 14th

Artane2002 ______________10.8 _ 23.3 _ -1.8 _ 125 _ 085 ___ 16th


___ Con Sensus __________ 10.8 _ 23.6 _ -1.8 _ 120 _ 095 ___ 20th


Bsal ____________________10.7 _ 23.5 _ -2.0 _ 110 _ 094 ___ 18th

Mr Skinner ______________ 10.6 _ 25.6 _ -2.3 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 22nd

waterways _______________10.6 _ 25.2 _ -3.2 _ 128 _ 092 ___ 25th

CirrusBusiness ___________ 10.6 _ 23.2 _ -1.8 _ 135 _ 085 ___ 26th

DOCARCH _______________10.6 _ 22.3 _ -1.8 _ 095 _ 108 ___ 12th

Gonzo _________ (-5) _____10.4 _ 22.6 _ -3.2 _ 136 _ 086 ___ 23rd

200 motels _____ (-5) _____10.4 _ 21.0 _ -1.3 _ 111 _ 079 ___ 20th

sryanbruen ______________10.3 _ 22.9 _ -1.1 _ 130 _ 075 ___ 19th

Sunflower3 ______________10.2 _ 23.4 _ -2.2 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 21st

Appledrop _______________10.2 _ 22.2 _ -3.0 _ 120 _ 085 ___ 23rd

Adam240610 ____ (-4) ____10.1 _ 23.7 _ -2.5 _ 120 _ 095 ___ 20th

Pauldry _________________ 9.8 _ 22.5 _ -2.3 _ 125 _ 090 ___ 22nd

__________________________________________

Two points were added to late penalties if a value below -2.5 C was submitted for MIN

... this is to equalize scoring advantage from the discussion, a larger penalty would be unfair because anyone

had the option of waiting to 0200h to make a reasonably informed forecast.

... anyone who did not appear to benefit from their late submission is not given an extra 2 points late penalty.

___________________________________________

The dates selected for the next temp above 21.2 C ...

10 12 13 14 15 16 16
18 18 19 19 20 20 20 20
21 22 22 23 23 23 25 26 30

If the actual day falls in the middle range above then scores will be 10 minus error of days but with some increase for largest errors

If the actual day is at either end of this range then we'll go with some system of groups of three.

24 forecasts so far, would imagine that might be all this month, but if any really late ones appear, choose either the MIN we know (with this big a late penalty, will just cap the score at 16) or take some lower value if you think it could verify, within 0.4 subject to slight cap also.