Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

24567

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,811 ✭✭✭Chris_5339762


    Any charts from that one absolutely outrageous outlier on the top of the ensembles above?


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    A very impressive arctic high on some models runs. It's just typical we'd get these charts at the wrong time of year.
    Looks like the Scottish ski resorts could be in for some snow during the second week Of may. I fear that we could end up with low pressure systems hovering over us as we go later into the month. Still, i'd take a lousy May, if it meant we ended up with a decent June to follow.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Any charts from that one absolutely outrageous outlier on the top of the ensembles above?

    I presume this is the one, all the other ensembles are cool or cold, but this one is very warm indeed with +15C uppers in places.

    GFSP15EU06_336_1.png

    GFSP15EU06_336_2.png

    unfortunately basically zero chance of this one pulling off.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    all in all still a good deal of uncertainty with the models but it's beginning to look like May is going to be a very mixed bag and more unsettled than April and generally cooler too. The West may once again end up with the best temperatures during any decent sunny days with the winds possibly in from the east or north-east for much of the first half of May. I think the second of May may be more unsettled and Atlantic driven but we shall see.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,030 ✭✭✭compsys


    Gonzo wrote: »
    all in all still a good deal of uncertainty with the models but it's beginning to look like May is going to be a very mixed bag and more unsettled than April and generally cooler too. The West may once again end up with the best temperatures during any decent sunny days with the winds possibly in from the east or north-east for much of the first half of May. I think the second of May may be more unsettled and Atlantic driven but we shall see.

    A strong area of high pressure over Ireland is still fairly useless for warmth in May if you're living along the East coast as the sea breeze keeps things far too cold. You'd need exceptional uppers over the country.

    Sometimes it's not even sunny with the coastline being plagued by mist. It's not really until June that temps above 20 celsius, if even, are possible in set ups like that.

    Of course temps above 20 are possible in the East in May or even April but, ironically, it's usually when there's lower pressure over us and the weather for the country as a whole is 'worse', with the winds coming from the west or south west and often rain on the way and the East just about staying dry.

    So I'd take a poorer May if it meant a better June, July or August - or September even!

    The April sun was lovely in Dublin but it only felt really warm on about two days.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Models do seem to be picking up on something towards the middle part of May. This is current GEFS run showing 850 hPa temp anomalies:

    4IsRmIf.gif

    EPS showing something similar also, but I also recall that both these outputs showed something similar at the beginning of last month that never really materialised in the end. Also, I read recently the model accuracy has fallen through the floor since aircraft data (which is fed into model output) has become ever more scant. Not saying that the models are wrong again this time around, but this is something to keep in mind when looking at longer range data maybe.

    New Moon



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    this evenings ECM is looking grim for mid May, cold, windy and showery, possibly wintry falls on high ground.

    ECMOPEU12_240_1.png

    The east coast would be raw with this one, wind is sourced along way north into the North Pole. Daytime temperatures would struggle to make it past single digits with this one and possibly frosts at night.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    the GFS is still going for an nonseasonal taste of winter next week. By Wednesday 13th of May it has us in a very cold spell of weather with -6 and -7C uppers over the country! We barely saw these uppers all winter and here we are close to the beginning to Summer with such uppers.

    GFSOPEU12_207_1.png

    GFSOPEU12_207_2.png

    GFSOPUK12_210_2.png

    If these come off it could prove quite damaging to plants and possibly farmers with hard overnight frosts and possibly wintry showers by night.

    GFSOPUK12_207_5.png

    GFSOPUK12_216_5.png

    204-574UK.GIF?04-12


  • Registered Users Posts: 715 ✭✭✭Carol25


    Are we still looking at cold weather next week? Anyone any predictions on May/June weather this year?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Carol25 wrote: »
    Are we still looking at cold weather next week? Anyone any predictions on May/June weather this year?

    still cold from Sunday but not as much as a direct hit as it was looking a few days ago. We get the northerly but we miss out on the wintry showers and temperatures not quite as low as what Scotland and parts of England will get. Temperatures will stage a recovery from Tuesday and we are back to an easterly by this time next week. From the 15th of May is starting to trend much milder and over all the next 2 weeks is now looking relatively dry apart from some showers or light rain, and the Atlantic looks like staying out to our west for the time being.

    ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=12&date=2020-05-06&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

    ECMOPEU00_240_1.png


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 715 ✭✭✭Carol25


    Thank you for the update 🙂ðŸ‘ðŸ»


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,763 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Both ECM and GFS still showing mainly under the influence of Hp out to +240 hrs , low rainfall totals going by present charts.

    7PUKDMP.gif

    S00vBPC.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    latest GFS throwing a bit of a heat wobble around the 23rd of May. It's not well supported and I think this will miss us, most plumes head north and then north east usually leaving Ireland on the cool side. Could this work out? I sure hope so, but I have my doubts.

    GFSOPEU06_348_1.png

    The +12 uppers over the country, would bring very warm temperatures up to the 25 or 26C in places.

    GFSOPEU06_348_2.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,763 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM now showing very warm weather at the end of the run at +240hrs ......for the moment anyway( hottest chart shown so far this year getting up to the mid 20's). A lot of moving parts have to come together for that to happen but in general showing very little rainfall ( not good for the farmers, gardeners ,reservoirs or the firefighters from gorse fires ) and under the influence of Hp for a fair bit of the time. GFS has moved more towards the influence of LP at around +240hrs.

    iMB78Z1.gif

    W3xZQ2A.png

    dISpVZJ.png

    1klIHOR.png

    DHBFvKa.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Earlier GFS runs were very warm and settled, this afternoons run is a bit more cooler and unsettled after day 10 but high pressure tries to get going again right at the end. However several of the lower resolution GFS runs are still going for very warm conditions right up to the end of FI.

    some of the long range models are pointing towards a very warm June, will be interesting to see if that comes off. Could we end up with a warm or hot first half of summer followed by a much cooler second half? Time will tell.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,339 ✭✭✭esposito


    Gonzo wrote: »
    Earlier GFS runs were very warm and settled, this afternoons run is a bit more cooler and unsettled after day 10 but high pressure tries to get going again right at the end. However several of the lower resolution GFS runs are still going for very warm conditions right up to the end of FI.

    some of the long range models are pointing towards a very warm June, will be interesting to see if that comes off. Could we end up with a warm or hot first half of summer followed by a much cooler second half? Time will tell.

    In other words, a repeat of summer 2018? Let’s hope so. We can be sure of a cool and unsettled August anyway!


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,834 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Are we going to be looking for FI for rain now instead of snow like in Winter

    E.g GFS showing rain day 10...this prob wont come off. Airplanes must leak water. No rain since lockdown.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    pauldry wrote: »
    Are we going to be looking for FI for rain now instead of snow like in Winter

    E.g GFS showing rain day 10...this prob wont come off. Airplanes must leak water. No rain since lockdown.

    yeah it's been like that for a while but the GFS is trending more and more unsettled over the past 24 hours with each run. Next week is looking warmish and unsettled, it was originally looking very warm and dry. Hopefully the rain gets pushed back again, I don't want to see deluges till next October!

    Next GFS run rolling out, hopefully we go back to a dryer solution for next week keeping the cooler Atlantic mess further away from us.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,095 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Gonzo wrote: »

    yeah it's been like that for a while but the GFS is trending more and more unsettled over the past 24 hours with each run. Next week is looking warmish and unsettled, it was originally looking very warm and dry. Hopefully the rain gets pushed back again, I don't want to see deluges till next October!

    As long as it’s warm I can bear the rain in summer. Great for growth.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    There is a possibility we could set up an Omega block next week with low pressure stuck in the Atlantic and to the east of Europe courtesy of a northerly shift of the jet stream. Omega blocking highs are notoriously difficult to push for those that do not know and our driest summers all contain them. As we seen from Summer 2018, models tend to be too progressive with omega highs. I think this is even more the case this time around with problems like less weather observations from weather balloons due to the pandemic and we are getting close to the hurricane season also which will mean more spanners being thrown into the mix. In fact, there is an area of low pressure near the Bahamas right now that has a high chance of becoming a subtropical cyclone by the weekend. Don't expect model certainty to become much better.

    XlhVcl8.png

    We actually already had an omega high this spring too that brought the March-April fine and dry spell with only a few blips due to changes in the positioning of the anticyclone.

    With the current situation, regardless of all the rain we received over the summer to winter period prior, I think the prospect of an omega high is very bad news. The lack of rain from this spring is one thing but the use of excess water due to Covid-19 demand just makes this issue more apparent. A relatively wet summer might actually be a good thing in that regard or else I see a hosepipe ban being put in force which seems crazy to think after such a wet August, autumn and February.

    Slightly off topic for a second but I will not be releasing a summer forecast this year (my most recent forecast was in fact Summer 2019). I won't say I have given up on seasonal forecasts but I do not plan to bring them back any time soon due to loss of interest and life being busier nowadays in general. However, the equatorial Pacific continues to cool down a lot. If this keeps going on and on, we will be in a La Nina by the end of the summer or the autumn which could mean a bad omen if it's warm and dry weather you seek. ENSO correlation with European weather is hypothesis at best but the rapid transition to La Nina and summers here have one of the better connections.


  • Advertisement
  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    latest GFS run has us getting milder over the next week and staying mostly dry until next Wednesday, looks warm for the early part of next week until the breakdown. The GFS pushes very warm or hot air over much of Europe while the Atlantic rolls back in for Ireland, western UK and Scotland in particular.

    GFSOPEU06_195_1.png

    This low turns Ireland fairly cool with rain at times and becomes quite windy.

    Atlantic and low pressure takes a firm grip of Ireland and Scotland by next Friday.
    GFSOPEU06_213_1.png

    A plume of heat over much of western Europe and eastern England by Saturday 23rd, Ireland remains in the cooler Atlantic airmass with another low lining up.

    GFSOPEU06_252_1.png

    GFSOPEU06_264_2.png


    Relatively cool with another low pressure over Ireland by Monday 25th

    GFSOPEU06_288_1.png

    Hopefully the charts will trend back towards higher pressure for us. It's a great run for most of Europe and south-east UK but the atlantic is too close for comfort for us and it has shades of July 2019/where the Atlantic continues to bite at the heels of Ireland where we miss out on the heat and the more settled conditions. There are signs that the high pressure returns towards the very end of the run so hopefully this maybe only a temporary blip and that we revert to warm and dry for June! This unsettled spell is still a week away so time yet for it to be delayed. Hopefully we will see the Atlantic pushed out further west on future runs.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    GFS rolling out again and it's more in line with what was showing the day before yesterday. It's much more plumey and continental for us with the Atlantic muck staying well out to our west. However there is some instability and thunderstorm potential within it.

    I would bank this one. Up to next Tuesday it's broadly similar to what was shown this morning with warmth building from the south.

    GFSOPEU12_147_1.png

    Wednesday see's a light south-easterly flow off the continent. the Atlantic tries to get close to us but doesn't quite get there.

    GFSOPEU12_174_1.png

    Very warm by Friday 22nd with warm or very warm south-easterlies over Ireland, Low pressure in the Bay of Biscay may have an impact over southern areas with thunderstorms possible, especially in Kerry and Cork. Temperatures in the low to mid twenties widely.

    GFSOPEU12_213_1.png

    GFSOPEU12_213_2.png

    Cooler with instability on Saturday 23rd, heavy showers or thunderstorms likely throughout the weekend.

    GFSOPEU12_237_1.png

    Heights rise again by Monday 24th and the heat builds back.

    GFSOPEU12_288_1.png

    We stay generally warm on mostly settled into the following week.

    GFSOPEU12_384_1.png

    All to play for yet, this could go either way. Hopefully the warmer more continental flow will win out and we can keep the proper Atlantic flow at bay as much as possible. There is also the potential for some warm to very warm weather at times with thunderstorm potential in places as low pressures from the Atlantic or Bay of Biscay never too far away. Certainly the second half of May could be a good deal warmer than the first half. You could say this is starting to look very like May/June 2018 with the Azores high extending it's ridging over us from time to time as well.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    ECMWF keeps the nice warm humid theme going with potential for a thundery plume. Probably still too early for a real plume but would be a nice intro to summer

    ECM1-216_qmt8.GIF


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    GFS has fallen back more in line with the ECM this morning. Very dry outlook with plentiful high pressure and increasingly warm.

    I echo my thoughts I posted yesterday though about model uncertainty and drought concerns if the exceptionally dry signal does verify.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,550 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    GFS has fallen back more in line with the ECM this morning. Very dry outlook with plentiful high pressure and increasingly warm.

    I echo my thoughts I posted yesterday though about model uncertainty and drought concerns if the exceptionally dry signal does verify.

    What were your orginal thoughts for Spring and Summer by the way? I don't think anyone could have anticipated what has transpired over the last couple of months


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,677 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    the next 7 to 10 days look mostly dry, many places seeing no rain at all and temperatures lifting up to the high teens and low twenties for many over the next two weeks, a few places could get to mid twenties if we get enough sunshine and winds from the east are very light. A few more coolish days to go and then proper summer like conditions from Sunday onwards. The current dry spell may break down in the final week of May but that's along way off.

    ECMOPEU12_144_2.png

    GFSOPEU12_264_1.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,030 ✭✭✭compsys


    ECM painting a much more unsettled picture in the medium term, no? Low pressure all around us in just a week's time it seems.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    What were your orginal thoughts for Spring and Summer by the way? I don't think anyone could have anticipated what has transpired over the last couple of months

    I saw a change coming sometime during March although felt it'd be more mid-month focused than the last week or so. I thought April be more unsettled than what came afoot and on the cool side. I didn't think highly of May either with much wetter than average conditions.

    I'm glad I was wrong.
    compsys wrote: »
    ECM painting a much more unsettled picture in the medium term, no? Low pressure all around us in just a week's time it seems.

    It's a strange run. Accumulated precipitation charts still look very dry for a lot of the country and I tend to not rate such charts high due to them being over the top - particularly GFS.

    For a longer term pattern though, it does suggest a cool and unsettled synoptic with blocking developing in the higher latitudes. Doesn't show this until this day next week.

    The model uncertainty goes on.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 13,477 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Overall, more favoured to the unsettled side this morning for mid-week next week but the northern blocking signal has gone. Both GFS and ECM seem to bring the low that tries to undercut the ridge towards Ireland on Wednesday to Friday, classic summer scenario as highlighted by Gonzo previously whilst a southerly to southeasterly airflow occurs to east of us.

    ECM in longer range shows the ridge getting stronger and pushing the low back into the North Atlantic. GFS is currently updating its 06z run but might be following a similar path.

    I always feel like a broken record saying model uncertainty but yet again, it goes on and on and on.

    EDIT: Looks like GFS is back to the northern blocking signal around the following weekend with a southerly tracking jet stream. Not good for warm and dry weather, in fact really bad. ECM has backtracked on this from yesterday evening so not sure whether to say a new trendsetter or outlier. The kind of charts 2007 and 2012 had.


This discussion has been closed.
Advertisement