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This Week's Storms - FORECAST, MODEL DISCUSSION ONLY

  • 08-12-2011 12:11am
    #1
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭


    As Thursday's storm has yet to fully develop, it will pass us to the north, still bringing some especially stormy conditions to Northern Ireland tomorrow and tomorrow night.

    There are good indications of another deeper storm developing under a 180 knot jet streak over the Atlantic late Sunday and taking a more direct path towards Ireland some time on Monday/into Tuesday. There is some uncertainty in the exact timing of its arrival, but with a core pressure of possibly as low as 945 hPa, it should bring stormy conditions with violent gusts to many parts of the country.

    As with most rapidly deepening cyclones, the actual path may turn out to be to the left (north) of the current projections, but it is one to keep an eye on.

    184310.gif

    184309.gif


«134567…37

Comments

  • #2
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,963 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Slightly off-topic, but yet another rolls in next Thursday

    65d16q.png

    It's track over Ireland still low res but another to keep an eye on.

    Funnily enough the word to prove i was human on tinypic while uploading this was disaster :pac:


  • #3
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    baraca wrote: »
    Slightly off-topic, but yet another rolls in next Thursday

    65d16q.png

    It's track over Ireland still low res but another to keep an eye on.

    Funnily enough the word to prove i was human on tinypic while uploading this was disaster :pac:

    I actually hope this one doesn't happen! I have my Christmas night out with work that night!:D


  • #4
    Bicycle
    Registered Users Posts: 798 ✭✭✭Bicycle


    The way the patterns are running this season, one wonders if there is due cause to rename Thursday to Windsday. :)

    Any chance this baby will die down? I've anemophobia (wind phobia) and these things don't make me happy!! Thursday storms are OK as I only work on Thursday evenings when most of these have calmed. However Monday and Tuesday are different :eek:


  • #5
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,143 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    any one have any update on this storm based on the latest charts? it looks like today's event went further north than expected though the models had this system for next week further south.


  • #6
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    ECM and UKMO showing potential for this still.

    GFS is a bit different but then throws in a rare serious storm for the south next Thursday. (I'm sure this will be gone on the next run!)

    esncxs.jpg


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  • #7
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    maquiladora wrote: »
    ECM and UKMO showing potential for this still.

    GFS is a bit different but then throws in a rare serious storm for the south next Thursday. (I'm sure this will be gone on the next run!)

    esncxs.jpg

    :eek::eek:


  • #8
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    GFS typically shows epic centre lows of 940 - 950 at 5-9 days and it normally turns out to be a stiff breeze with gusts breaking 60KT in Belmullet perhaps. Please stop pointing to these serially unreliable forecasts. :(


  • #9
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    GFS typically shows epic centre lows of 940 - 950 at 5-9 days and it normally turns out to be a stiff breeze with gusts breaking 60KT in Belmullet perhaps. Please stop pointing to these serially unreliable forecasts. :(

    Well in fairness he did indicate that it would probably be gone in the next run:)

    Still, gives the thread a bit of a shock factor!


  • #10
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    GFS typically shows epic centre lows of 940 - 950 at 5-9 days and it normally turns out to be a stiff breeze with gusts breaking 60KT in Belmullet perhaps. Please stop pointing to these serially unreliable forecasts. :(

    Um, you need to take a look at the rest of the models for next week then, almost all showing potential for a deep low close to us.

    ECM
    i2rnfc.gif

    UKMO
    kboftk.gif

    JMA
    lwe3b.gif

    NOGAPS
    domph1.png

    The only difference with the GFS is that it keeps that low further away from Ireland and swings another over us a couple of days later, which as I said will probably be gone in the next run anyway!


  • #11
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Aw sure there is 'potential' but it will most likely be nothing.

    OH LOOOOOOOOOK !!!!! :eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::cool::eek:

    POLAR LOW ON CHRISTMAS EVE     :eek::eek::eek::eek: FFS :cool:

    Because it is all about that potential.

    Rtavn3841.png


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  • #12
    garyha
    Registered Users Posts: 70 ✭✭garyha


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    Aw sure there is 'potential' but it will most likely be nothing.

    OH LOOOOOOOOOK !!!!! :eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::cool::eek:

    POLAR LOW ON CHRISTMAS EVE     :eek::eek::eek::eek: FFS :cool:

    Because it is all about that potential.

    Cool story bro.


  • #13
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    0291_zmzg.gif

    :P


  • #14
    fits
    Registered Users Posts: 13,238 ✭✭✭✭fits


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    Aw sure there is 'potential' but it will most likely be nothing.

    OH LOOOOOOOOOK !!!!! :eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::cool::eek:

    POLAR LOW ON CHRISTMAS EVE     :eek::eek::eek::eek: FFS :cool:

    Because it is all about that potential.


    wouldnt it be funny if this materialised :D


  • #15
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    fits wrote: »
    wouldnt it be funny if this materialised :D

    It'd be fecking brilliant that's what it would be!:D


  • #16
    Strangegravy
    Registered Users Posts: 356 ✭✭Strangegravy


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    Aw sure there is 'potential' but it will most likely be nothing.

    OH LOOOOOOOOOK !!!!! :eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::cool:

    POLAR LOW ON CHRISTMAS EVE     :eek::eek::eek::eek: FFS :cool:

    Because it is all about that potential.


    Awwwww.... I think Sponge Bob needs some snow, or a hug... so here's the best of both!! :D

    snowmanhug.jpg


  • #17
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Game of darts anyone?

    ECMWF 240hr:

    184370.gif
    Bring that right on! :cool:


  • #18
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    930Hpa sez that bloody GFS, For Fu**s sake :( Was there a hurricane that low all season in 2011.???


  • #19
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    EDIT: wrong thread

    Getting confused!


  • #20
    Storm 10
    Registered Users Posts: 5,871 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Heres a great link from the Shetland Islands, all live cameras, you can watch the ships in the harbour, see planes taking off from the airport etc. click on the live webcams at the bottom

    Link: http://visit.shetland.org/shetland-webcams


  • #21
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,963 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    I'd probably wizz in my pants if this came off, Pity it's a week out.

    2dlu68z.png

    Maq how come the wind speed map you posted is showing stronger wind speeds yet it's from the same run?


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  • #22
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    baraca wrote: »
    I'd probably wizz in my pants if this came off, Pity it's a week out.

    2dlu68z.png

    Maq how come the wind speed map you posted is showing stronger wind speeds yet it's from the same run?

    Oh my dear god!:eek: I think that would be the end of us down south!


  • #23
    gbee
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,388 ✭✭✭gbee


    leahyl wrote: »
    Oh my dear god!:eek: I think that would be the end of us down south!

    AND it's attacking from our weak side, shield ineffective from that angle and those speeds.


  • #24
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    gbee wrote: »
    AND it's attacking from our weak side, shield ineffective from that angle and those speeds.

    And it's for next Thursday - not far off! But I know those winds will probably weaken considerably - still though it's exciting stuff! But wait no I don't want this for next Thursday cos it's my work Christmas party:eek:


  • #25
    mickger844posts
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    gbee wrote: »
    AND it's attacking from our weak side, shield ineffective from that angle and those speeds.

    Perfect scenario for Waterford too. We never do well out of a set up like today.


  • #26
    je55ie
    Closed Accounts Posts: 423 ✭✭je55ie


    leahyl wrote: »
    Oh my dear god!:eek: I think that would be the end of us down south!


    Maybe we've been wanting exciting weather too much down here !!! :eek:


  • #27
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    baraca wrote: »
    I'd probably wizz in my pants if this came off, Pity it's a week out.

    2dlu68z.png

    Maq how come the wind speed map you posted is showing stronger wind speeds yet it's from the same run?

    The one you posted shows mean winds, the one I posted shows gusts.


  • #28
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,963 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    maquiladora wrote: »
    The one you posted shows mean winds, the one I posted shows gusts.

    Thanks.


  • #29
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,963 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    12z has the storm for the south a lot further east centred over northern france and later on friday also a lot weaker.


  • #30
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    baraca wrote: »
    I'd probably wizz in my pants if this came off

    I think going by this post the boards.ie weather forum would be better off if this didn't come off. :eek:


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  • #31
    Speak Now
    Registered Users Posts: 8,504 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    GFZ 12z still showing this low (940mb) for early next week.
    Just north enough to keep us on the map!

    airpressure.png


This discussion has been closed.
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