Wet & Windy Days Ahead (Sept 30th onwards)

maquiladora · 27-09-2010 11:42am #1

It looks like we are going to get our first proper taste of Autumn later this week and into the weekend with some wet and windy conditions possible.

It's too early to tell just exactly how wet or how windy it will be but here is how things look at the moment.

Plenty of rain, heavy at times :

Low pressure bringing breezy/windy conditions :

Met Eireann outlook mentions:

Thursday will be breezy, with rain spreading from the southwest, accompanied by fresh southerly winds. More rain will follow Thursday night, with a risk of some heavy falls. Southerly winds will strengthen further, with a risk of gales at sea.

Thats just how it looks at the moment, those charts will proabably look different by the time we get to Thursday, but its almost certain now we will be entering a period of wet and perhaps windy conditions for a least a few days.

lord lucan · 27-09-2010 1:40pm

The trees around my way are heavily laden with leaves waiting to be blown off. This sounds like just the weather to do so.

Pangea · 27-09-2010 6:39pm

maquiladora wrote: »

It looks like we are going to get our first proper taste of Autumn later this week and into the weekend with some wet and windy conditions possible.

Its been autumn a long time if thats the case :P

Su Campu · 27-09-2010 7:06pm

Friday's looking like the worst day rainwise, but with such a dynamic situation in the the breeding ground for these systems upstream off the northeast US /Canadian coast, minor shifts will have huge consequences on what we get here. I would take anything outside 48hrs with a pinch of salt this week.

maquiladora · 27-09-2010 7:26pm

12Z ECM showing a fairly strong low but keeps it out at sea.

As Su says you have to take all these charts with a pinch, the path and intensity of these lows change a lot on each run but the general trend is for a period of wet and perhaps windy weather ahead.

Su Campu · 27-09-2010 7:47pm

This week is one where the likes of yr.no and weatheronline, etc. forecasts will be chopping and changing several times a day as each model run comes out. Some people here won't like to hear that! :cool:

Su Campu · 27-09-2010 9:24pm

Compare the ECMWF run above to the German GME for the same time. The GME has the low 18hPa shallower, and about 700 miles further to the northwest. :rolleyes: And the UKMO has it in a similar position to the ECMWF but 10hPa shallower. Seeing as Met Éireann use all of these models in their forecasting, now do you all see where the skill of a forecaster comes in??

00_DWD_Boden+108-10927.gif

Deep Easterly · 27-09-2010 9:48pm

Interesting set up alright.

Tonight's ECM run is showing this low deepening to the NW of Ireland by almost 30 mb in the 24hr period between 18z Thursday and 18z Friday:

Thursday evening forecast:

Friday Evening:

the same model had the same forecast low moving right in over Ireland and deepening explosively while sitting right over the country which was not plausable at all.

Will be interesting to see how this develops in reality!

nacho libre · 27-09-2010 10:14pm

i trust the ecm model predictions over the others.
pangea, if a low of 954 mb does pass to the northwest, make sure if you go out your toupee is glued on to your head :pac:

Su Campu · 27-09-2010 10:19pm

It will be interesting indeed, as the Rosenbloom Rule of forecasting states that bomb cyclones like this one will follow a track to the left of the forecast model track, so we can expect it to end up even a bit further away from us. How things can go from good to bad in the space of a few hours!! :rolleyes:

Deep Easterly · 27-09-2010 10:24pm

Su Campu wrote: »

It will be interesting indeed, as the Rosenbloom Rule of forecasting states that bomb cyclones like this one will follow a track to the left of the forecast model track, so we can expect it to end up even a bit further away from us. How things can go from good to bad in the space of a few hours!! :rolleyes:

Interesting to see that the mean ensemble run has the low tracking further to the northwest than the standard determinstic run:

essential%21MSLP%21Europe%2196%21pop%21od%21enfo%21plot_ensm_essential%212010092712%21%21chart.gif

essential%21MSLP%21Europe%2196%21pop%21od%21enfo%21plot_ensm_essential%212010092712%21%21chart.gif

all up in the air still!

Just to add to that, the deterministic run can often be more accurate, but will it this time?????????????????????????

Redsunset · 27-09-2010 10:28pm

I wonder how much it will have changed by thurday.

Deep Easterly · 27-09-2010 10:40pm

One positive aspect in the event that this primary low does somehow end up in a more 'nomal' position closer to Iceland might be that we would be in a better position to get hit full on by potent secondaries should they form in the mid to west Atlantic. Vigorous shortwaves are rarely picked up on by the models beyond 72hrs so maybe this might be a straw to clutch on?

Min · 28-09-2010 1:05am

Personally I would just like the Azores high to miraculously move up over us.

maquiladora · 28-09-2010 9:16am

Yeah most of the models seem to be in agreement with keeping that low well off to our NW now. Still possible for the models to change and bring it closer to us again but at the moment, as DE says, there is a better chance of us getting high winds from a secondary low with this setup looking like it does.

pauldry · 28-09-2010 9:32am

why do all of ye madheads want storms?

No electricity or internet would result n then no boards!!!!:(

up for anything · 28-09-2010 9:47am

Maybe because it creates a bit of personal adrenalin and then also generates lots of posts and pictures.

maquiladora · 28-09-2010 10:01am

pauldry wrote: »

why do all of ye madheads want storms?

No electricity or internet would result n then no boards!!!!:(

Well for me anyway its been 13 years since I experienced a good storm. Christmas Eve 1997, anyone else remember that? I think its normal for some people who are interested in weather to want to experience severe weather first hand since it is so rare in this country.

I think I could live without the net for a few hours. :pac:

Speak Now · 28-09-2010 10:11am

maquiladora wrote: »

Well for me anyway its been 13 years since I experienced a good storm. Christmas Eve 1997, anyone else remember that? I think its normal for some people who are interested in weather to want to experience severe weather first hand since it is so rare in this country.

I think I could live without the net for a few hours. :pac:

That was some storm but now im living in a more rural area i don't think i could cope without electricty for 5 days

Christmas 97 is not remembered fondly around here.

bryaner · 28-09-2010 10:15am

maquiladora wrote: »

Well for me anyway its been 13 years since I experienced a good storm. Christmas Eve 1997, anyone else remember that? I think its normal for some people who are interested in weather to want to experience severe weather first hand since it is so rare in this country.

I think I could live without the net for a few hours. :pac:

I cycled to the pub in that storm only to find it shut.

maquiladora · 28-09-2010 11:11am

06Z GFS seems to develop the low faster and slightly further south at 66 hours but by 102 its pretty much in the same position, south of Iceland.

Edit : At 138 hours the remains of a yet to be born Nicole which is currently south of Cuba pay us a visit. GEM also shows this.

Min · 28-09-2010 11:26am

maquiladora wrote: »

Well for me anyway its been 13 years since I experienced a good storm. Christmas Eve 1997, anyone else remember that? I think its normal for some people who are interested in weather to want to experience severe weather first hand since it is so rare in this country.

I think I could live without the net for a few hours. :pac:

How could I forget....

Days before it, Met Eireann warned of a storm, then on the day of the storm near nothing about it, heard reports on the news of slates coming off buildings in Cork, at 5pm it hit us and I was out feeding cows, I watched as it tore the roof of a neighbours house like it was a sheet of paper, electricity and phone went - I went to see the elderly neighbours, went into the wind to avoid another shed as it was rattling in the wind, saw the neighbours they were ok.
When I came back the roof was gone off one of my own buildings - we are on a hill exposed directly to the storm.
The wind was so strong you could lean forward in it and the wind would hold you or even push you back in a gust.

We had turkey's and we didn't get to clean them all out, Christmas day was revealing as the damage was bad and there was another storm that day but it was nothing compared the previous day. We had the most unusual Christmas dinner - normal but it was like going back decades due to no power. After dinner my mother started cleaning out the rest of the turkeys for the freezer for when the power came back.
We had given up hope of getting any power back but at 5:15pm it came back - no internet for over a week, really missed that.
I could do without seeing a destructive storm like that again.

Was it the following year there was the St Stephen's day storm?

maquiladora · 28-09-2010 11:41am

Min wrote: »

How could I forget....

The storm was named Yuma. Here is the archive from 1997. You can see the storm starting to form down to our southwest (http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1997/Rrea00119971224.gif ) and then 24 hours later it has intensified, moved over us and is now is just off the east coast of Scotland (http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1997/Rrea00119971225.gif).

I remember well the howl of the wind and the sound of crashing and smashing as trees fell at the back of our house and tiles came off the roof.

skipz · 28-09-2010 12:39pm

maquiladora wrote: »

.

I feel like getting sick looking at that chart....rotten!

maquiladora · 28-09-2010 1:20pm

Inland gusts up to around 40-50mph in parts on the 06Z GFS run.

Nothing to worry about really but we'll have to wait and see how it develops.

Tactical · 28-09-2010 3:51pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Well for me anyway its been 13 years since I experienced a good storm. Christmas Eve 1997, anyone else remember that? I think its normal for some people who are interested in weather to want to experience severe weather first hand since it is so rare in this country.

I think I could live without the net for a few hours. :pac:

My wireless ODU for the internet and the wireless routher is battery backed up and can run the laptop on an inverter for when its battery is flat.

At this stage most serious providers should be either battery or generator backed up. No excuse for not being configured in this way. Cost is no valid excuse.

Simple things like not opening he freezer unless absolutely necessary, same for the fridge help prolong food life. A small camping gaz stove or single ring sorts out heating items and cooking. Warm clothes sort out the cold and then there's conversation for those who don't have a generator to run the TV etc...

Makes for a different few hours really.

Anyhow...

I sure remember this weather event. Was lucky enough to need to cross the country for professional purposes. Lots of debris and slates etc in built up areas and a reasonable amount of trees and bushes blown about.

Been too long since we had a good strong wind event

This time I'd have the camcorder and dSLR available if not on a work trip.

maquiladora · 28-09-2010 4:01pm

Tactical wrote: »

Been too long since we had a good strong wind event This time I'd have the camcorder and dSLR available if not on a work trip.

Mean windspeeds of violent storm force 11 (over 55 knots, or 102km/h) were recorded at both Cork and Shannon Airports during the Christmas Eve storm of 1997 with gusts of over 160km/h. The following year, another Christmas storm brought hurricane force winds at Malin Head on December 26th, with winds gusting to 178km/h.
- http://www.rte.ie/ie/morningireland/entry/25_years_of_weather

snaps · 28-09-2010 4:18pm

I think its a flash in a pan, its like a snow event, it possibly will be a damp squib!

maquiladora · 28-09-2010 4:23pm

snaps wrote: »

I think its a flash in a pan, its like a snow event, it possibly will be a damp squib!

Chances are it won't be anything too exciting. But sure there's feck all interesting happening with the weather around these parts at the moment...

Iancar29 · 28-09-2010 5:09pm

Really don't think this Worth even keeping an eye on fokes... The centre of low seems too far away from us to cause any action.

Next time hopefully!

pauldry · 28-09-2010 5:15pm

40mph will be lively enough gusting to 50mph at times on exposed coasts. I live on an exposed coast.:)

Wet & Windy Days Ahead (Sept 30th onwards)

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